Covid-19 is killing children at an astounding rate

[Joes Place]

Posted in other threads, but figured this should be front and center.

Unless CDC has posted data in error, the demographics site indicates a 6% Case Fatality Rate for those 0-4 years old.

It seems this is now only being understood, based on a late-developing syndrome in children that occurs weeks after they've contracted and "cleared" Covid19. This is known as MIS-C, and it was thought to be "rare", but if CDCs data are accurate, it's a lot less "rare" than was perceived.

CDC's numbers, updated late yesterday, are:
1582 deaths
26,045 cases

6% CFR.

https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

Here are several links to MIS-C, and the latest info:

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-symptoms-in-babies

https://www.jems.com/2020/06/09/covid-19-in-kids/

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...depth/mis-c-in-children-covid-19/art-20486809

https://www.cdc.gov/mis-c/

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/c...e-in-children?topicRef=127488&source=see_link

https://www.who.int/news-room/comme...ome-in-children-and-adolescents-with-covid-19​

This is simply NOT an "old people disease" anymore. It's impacting children at a very high rate. I'm somewhat confused as to why this has not been conveyed in the media much yet, perhaps to not cause a bigger panic and "hurt our stocks".

Are we really so enamored with our stock portfolios, vs conveying a danger to public health here?

Again, the 6% number was literally updated late yesterday, so that is "raw" data, and we may have clarifications on this soon. Or corrections. But the implication is that this MIS-C is much less "rare" than was believed, and keeping your kids away from this stuff until we can identify anti-inflammatory medications or vaccines would be highly advisable.

EDIT: This was the BI graphic shown yesterday, which indicated a 2% CFR for 0-4. CDC's updated data implies 6%, which makes this MORE lethal for young children, than for 50 yr olds

When I read this graphic I thought it must be wrong, so I looked their data up, and the numbers they used from the CDC site at the time were roughly 482 deaths and ~22,800 cases, or about 2% CFR - the graph was correct. That was updated to the numbers above late yesterday, pulling the CFR up to an even more eye-popping 6%.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-us-compared-to-flu-by-age-2020-6

 

[QChawks]

that's a big age gap, comparing a newborn to a 4 year is not fair in the case of tracking a disease

i'd curious to see the age breakdown detail

 

[Joes Place]

that's a big age gap, comparing a newborn to a 4 year is not fair in the case of tracking a disease

i'd curious to see the age breakdown detail

....if we're talking "children" <4 yrs old, how does that even matter?

 

[Black Lab Hawk]

....if we're talking "children" <4 yrs old, how does that even matter?

Infants under 12 months are less developed than a toddler which matters when discussing tracking a new disease.

 

[naturalmwa]

So no school again this year, right?

 

[Joes Place]

Infants under 12 months are less developed than a toddler which matters when discussing tracking a new disease.

Again, it's pre-school-aged children.

How many kids who will be going back to school have a sibling that is 0-4 years old?
And could possibly have 1-in-16 odds of getting MIS-C and dying from it?

These are pre-vaccine kinds of numbers, if CDCs demographics data are correct.

 

[Joes Place]

So no school again this year, right?

....or.......24/7 semester-long "school camp".....

 

[bdcolt45er]

It's interesting. We are just not seeing positive cases in children. At least the one's that are being tested. The ratio of positive adults to children a couple hundred adults for every positive child.
Now there could be children that have it but don't have symptoms so they never get tested. Also perhaps to this population of children that are testing positive have comorbidities which is making them particularly vulnerable.

 

[Black Lab Hawk]

Again, it's pre-school-aged children.

How many kids who will be going back to school have a sibling that is 0-4 years old?
And could possibly have 1-in-16 odds of getting MIS-C and dying from it?

These are pre-vaccine kinds of numbers, if CDCs demographics data are correct.

That’s not the point. Infants react to things differently than kids aged 1-4. I know you love to virtue signal claiming no one cares about kids like you do, but QC made a point you’re determined to ignore.

 

[hawkboy76]

Again, it's pre-school-aged children.

How many kids who will be going back to school have a sibling that is 0-4 years old?
And could possibly have 1-in-16 odds of getting MIS-C and dying from it?

These are pre-vaccine kinds of numbers, if CDCs demographics data are correct.

I think your underlined phrase is key at this point. I did a quick google search and nobody is really talking about this. If these numbers are correct Nd there is a 6% death rate for kids under 4, that would be a huge story and I would think it would be widely reported, but so far....crickets. these numbers also fly wildly against everything that has been reported so far about the threat to young kids. Wondering if this is an error on the CDC website. I would hope that the CDC would issue some kind of explanation of these dramatically changed numbers. Up until this past week, there were 13 total deaths in this age group. Now there are 1500? We'll see.

 

[mcgrawfsu]

Weird stat. My county in FL has had 279 kids under 18 test positive with zero hospitalizations. Not one.

 

[Joes Place]

I think your underlined phrase is key at this point. I did a quick google search and nobody is really talking about this. If these numbers are correct Nd there is a 6% death rate for kids under 4, that would be a huge story and I would think it would be widely reported, but so far....crickets. these numbers also fly wildly against everything that has been reported so far about the threat to young kids. Wondering if this is an error on the CDC website. I would hope that the CDC would issue some kind of explanation of these dramatically changed numbers. Up until this past week, there were 13 total deaths in this age group. Now there are 1500? We'll see.

Yesterday, they had it posted as 482 deaths, before this update.

So, I agree - something is going on. Either their data are wrong, or this is developing very quickly. And, if this has been lots of deaths from a previously unknown condition/disease (MIS-C) that no one characterized, it may be they are going back through all the data and finding these cases, literally just this week.

I don't know. But, as noted, the 2% number published by Business Insider, shocked me. So, I looked into it. I'm simply conveying to you what I've found.

 

[Rifler]

Go away....

 

[Joes Place]

That’s not the point. Infants react to things differently than kids aged 1-4. I know you love to virtue signal claiming no one cares about kids like you do, but QC made a point you’re determined to ignore.

The 0-4 age group is indeed odd; one can merely speculate that CDC grouped them that way, because that's where the case fatalities are.

We'll have to wait for CDC to issue a formal correction, or formal statement, I suppose.
But, given these data are currently accurate, shouldn't every news station be downplaying the "old people disease" propaganda?

 

[Joes Place]

Go away....

Damn...the MAGAs seem angry about this.

 

[Black Lab Hawk]

The 0-4 age group is indeed odd; one can merely speculate that CDC grouped them that way, because that's where the case fatalities are.

We'll have to wait for CDC to issue a formal correction, or formal statement, I supposed.
But, given these data are currently accurate, shouldn't every news station be downplaying the "old people disease" propaganda?

I think one lesson we *should* have learned through all this is to wait until more data/information comes out. But being humans in 2020, we fail miserably.

 

[DooBi]

Thats a scary statistic for parents. I wonder how many parents will keep their kids home even if they do have school this fall.

 

[WorldSeriesChamps2015]

Thats a scary statistic for parents. I wonder how many parents will keep their kids home even if they do have school this fall.

We are sending our kids back to daycare starting next week. The oldest is supposed to start preschool this fall.

 

[33hawkfan]

This is being reported no where else but luckily Joes on the case.

 

[UNIowaHawk]

How accurate is that 26K number? I have more faith in the accuracy of the 1,500 number. I also have am assuming there are significantly more than 26K more cases of flu in kids ages 0-4 and we have a better handle on that since we have decades of research and data.

All I’m saying is taking known (or perceived) deaths divided by known cases of covid to get death rate is stupid and lazy

 

[hawkeye54545]

Give the Chinese credit, they developed quite the virus. Tricky bastards

 

[Finance85]

From the CDC website

What is MIS-C?
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal (gut) pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. We do not yet know what causes MIS-C. However, many children with MIS-C had the virus that causes COVID-19, or had been around someone with COVID-19.

The CDC doesn't know what causes it for sure, but the headline of this thread is COVID-19 is not only causing it, but is the actual cause of death.

 

[fredjr82]

We are sending our kids back to daycare starting next week. The oldest is supposed to start preschool this fall.

Mine went back 6/1. Youngest is 5.

I remember a month back or so PMIS was putting kids into the hospital. The first case in Iowa was in Linn county. My kids are who I worry about most but they need structure and socializing with their own age group. I remember by the end of May how stir crazy they were. They needed away from each other and around some new kids. I hopeful we all stay healthy through this crazy time.

 

[UNIowaHawk]

From the CDC website

What is MIS-C?
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal (gut) pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. We do not yet know what causes MIS-C. However, many children with MIS-C had the virus that causes COVID-19, or had been around someone with COVID-19.

The CDC doesn't know what causes it for sure, but the headline of this thread is COVID-19 is not only causing it, but is the actual cause of death.

So are you saying Joes Place is jumping the gun and going to start calling people stupid for not agreeing with him soon?

 

[Black Lab Hawk]

From the CDC website

What is MIS-C?
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal (gut) pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. We do not yet know what causes MIS-C. However, many children with MIS-C had the virus that causes COVID-19, or had been around someone with COVID-19.

The CDC doesn't know what causes it for sure, but the headline of this thread is COVID-19 is not only causing it, but is the actual cause of death.

Yeah I had read about a month ago of a disorder similar to Kawasaki, which ended up being this. It was made fairly clear at that point that it is only being linked to COVID because it’s happening at the same time.

 

[fredjr82]

....if we're talking "children" <4 yrs old, how does that even matter?

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't MIS-C a new name for PMIS? If PMIS was being talked about in early May. Wouldn't this be all over the media if infants were dying at that rate?

Link

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Thats a scary statistic for parents. I wonder how many parents will keep their kids home even if they do have school this fall.

My wife is looking hard at online learning options for next year. 2 of our 3 kids have developmental disabilities which has been shown to have higher rates of death.

 

[Joes Place]

From the CDC website

What is MIS-C?
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal (gut) pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. We do not yet know what causes MIS-C. However, many children with MIS-C had the virus that causes COVID-19, or had been around someone with COVID-19.

The CDC doesn't know what causes it for sure, but the headline of this thread is COVID-19 is not only causing it, but is the actual cause of death.

Again, you're posting old information; this is now clearly being understood as a 3-4 or later week condition in response to Covid-19: exposure OR contraction.

 

[Joes Place]

Thats a scary statistic for parents. I wonder how many parents will keep their kids home even if they do have school this fall.

How accurate is that 26K number? I have more faith in the accuracy of the 1,500 number. I also have am assuming there are significantly more than 26K more cases of flu in kids ages 0-4 and we have a better handle on that since we have decades of research and data.

All I’m saying is taking known (or perceived) deaths divided by known cases of covid to get death rate is stupid and lazy

The 26k is accurate, from the perspective of "actual, documented cases".

The hope (and caveat), here, is that the actual number of kids who have contracted or been exposed to Covid-19 is much higher.

But the numbers here are: IF your kid gets a documented case of Covid-19, and displays any symptoms (which is generally the trigger for a Covid test), they have a pretty high likelihood of developing MIS-C. And, per this data, a 6% chance of dying from it. Unless CDC changes their numbers, that's what the math says.

Maybe we'll find we actually have 10x more kids who have gotten Covid-19 than the 26,000 listed here. This is a Case Fatality Rate, not an Infection Fatality Rate.

My point is: conveying this as "no big deal" because it's "just an old people disease" is going to put thousands, perhaps millions of children at-risk. So, if you're going to ignore the social distancing and masking guidelines, just understand - you ARE putting many young children at-risk.

 

[shank hawk]

Putting wheels on the goalposts was a brilliant move; sooo much easier to stay elusively mobile.

 

[Black Lab Hawk]

The 26k is accurate, from the perspective of "actual, documented cases".

The hope (and caveat), here, is that the actual number of kids who have contracted or been exposed to Covid-19 is much higher.

But the numbers here are: IF your kid gets a documented case of Covid-19, and displays any symptoms (which is generally the trigger for a Covid test), they have a pretty high likelihood of developing MIS-C. And, per this data, a 6% chance of dying from it. Unless CDC changes their numbers, that's what the math says.

Maybe we'll find we actually have 10x more kids who have gotten Covid-19 than the 26,000 listed here. This is a Case Fatality Rate, not an Infection Fatality Rate.

My point is: conveying this as "no big deal" because it's "just an old people disease" is going to put thousands, perhaps millions of children at-risk. So, if you're going to ignore the social distancing and masking guidelines, just understand - you ARE putting many young children at-risk.

I have seen no evidence to support the bolded claim. Seems like conjecture on your part. I’m flexible on that if presented with sourced info, though.

 

[Joes Place]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't MIS-C a new name for PMIS? If PMIS was being talked about in early May. Wouldn't this be all over the media if infants were dying at that rate?

Link

As I'd noted - they JUST updated numbers on this yesterday, from whatever they were that was not "scary", to "482/22,800-something". That was "2%"

Last night, they updated AGAIN to 1500/26,000; that is 6%.

If those numbers are in error, they should correct them, quickly.
If those numbers are NOT in error, then links and references to this condition that are <1 week old may not be very reliable sources.

We had, literally, dozens of people on these boards calling me out as "alarmist" when I posted regression data in early March projecting where we were headed. There were barely more than a hundred cases at the time.

My numbers were accurate - this has blown up well beyond anyone's expectations with how poor our response has been.

I am, again, finding data that is literally just being conveyed by CDC and connecting the dots for people. Is it alarming? Hell YES!

But until CDC steps up to the plate and publicizes this, or corrects their data, it SHOULD be alarming.

How many Conservative News pundits would be calling for "re-opening" if we found a significant percentage of babies and children would die from this? At rates 2x worse than the 50-64 yr age group? (Because that's literally what CDC's data says right now).

 

[Joes Place]

I have seen no evidence to support the bolded claim.

It's literally from CDC's site. I cannot make it any clearer for you than that.

Either these children are dying directly from Covid-19 (in very large numbers, overnight), or CDC has now re-categorized MIS-C as "Covid deaths" and is updating their data from the past 2-3 months).

What do you think is most likely here?

 

[fredjr82]

I have seen no evidence to support the bolded claim. Seems like conjecture on your part. I’m flexible on that if presented with sourced info, though.

This link goes from calling is MIS-C to PMIS. PMIS was brought up in early May as causing issues in kids.

Symptoms of MIS-C are pretty much verbatim of PMIS
Fever
Abdominal pain
Vomiting
Diarrhea
Neck pain
Rash
Bloodshot eyes
Feeling extra tired

My question becomes that even with a 3-4 week incubation period wouldn't we have heard about bunch of kids 0-4 dying all over the country?

MIS-C (Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children) is a new health condition appearing in children. Some doctors think the condition is related to having coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but the connection is still not clear. Although some doctors think it could be related to COVID-19, PMIS itself is not contagious. PMIS is a rare condition.

 

[Black Lab Hawk]

It's literally from CDC's site. I cannot make it any clearer for you than that.

What’s clear on the CDC site is that most with the syndrome had the virus. Nowhere (that I’ve seen) does it say most with the virus (in a certain age group) get the syndrome, as you claim. Again, it’s conjecture when not supported by facts.

 

[Joes Place]

What’s clear on the CDC site is that most with the syndrome had the virus. Nowhere (that I’ve seen) does it say most with the virus (in a certain age group) get the syndrome, as you claim. Again, it’s conjecture when not supported by facts.

What I've conveyed to you, is 6% of the children, 0-4, who have been diagnosed with Covid-19 are dead.

How you want to parse that between MIS-C vs. no-MIS-C is up to you. But a significant portion of children exposed to Covid-19 are presenting with MIS-C weeks later. And 1 out of 16 of the ones that are confirmed to have had Covid-19 die.

 

[Black Lab Hawk]

What I've conveyed to you, is 6% of the children, 0-4, who have been diagnosed with Covid-19 are dead.

How you want to parse that between MIS-C vs. no-MIS-C is up to you. But a significant portion of children exposed to Covid-19 are presenting with MIS-C weeks later. And 1 out of 16 of the ones that are confirmed to have had Covid-19 die.

So, conjecture. Thanks for clearing that up for me.

 

[pablow]

The small number of patients treated by the hospitals in the study echoes C.D.C. figures so far, which report that 2 percent of confirmed American coronavirus cases have been in children under 18. That’s similar to data in China and higher than rates reported in Italy and Spain. As of May 6, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 10 deaths in children 14 and younger and 48 deaths between the ages of 15 and 24.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/health/coronavirus-children-icu.html

Today the CDC lists 1582 covid-19 death age group 0 - 4.

Duriing this same period (May 6 to today) all covid deaths in the USA went from 65,307 to 123,745 - almost doubling. Yet during the same period the 0 -4 age group increased from 10 to 1582 - a factor of 158.

This makes no sense. And further, nobody has commented on it. Not even a doctor!

 

[Joes Place]

This link goes from calling is MIS-C to PMIS. PMIS was brought up in early May as causing issues in kids.

Symptoms of MIS-C are pretty much verbatim of PMIS
Fever
Abdominal pain
Vomiting
Diarrhea
Neck pain
Rash
Bloodshot eyes
Feeling extra tired

My question becomes that even with a 3-4 week incubation period wouldn't we have heard about bunch of kids 0-4 dying all over the country?

When CDC had only listed a few dozen cases as of yesterday, absolutely.

Today, that number has been updated to 1582. Literally, overnight.
And because of the lag time on this, it may have just started this month after widespread Covid-infections.

I don't really know. What I do know, is that it makes a very solid case for social distancing and masks.

 

[Joes Place]

This makes no sense. And further, nobody has commented on it. Not even a doctor!

It makes sense, if they've gone back through the data, and found that these cases are far more prevalent than had been understood earlier.

Or, as I've now noted at least a dozen times, it is an error on their demographics data site.