Current electoral voting polls in swing states

[BrunoMars420]

Updated as of 9/3/24, last updated 7/29/24:
-Trump was up 9 in OH- This seems like OH is Trumps
-Trump up 2 in PA (flipped)-toss up
-Trump/Kamala tied in MI- toss up
-Kamala up 5-9 pts vs Trump MN-Kamala should win MN
-Trump up 1 Wisconsin-toss up
-Trump up 1 vs Harris AZ-toss up, was strong Trump up until Kamala
-Trump up 1 vs Harris NV-toss up, was strong Trump up until Kamala entered
-Trump up 6 vs Harris FL-Kamala gained 4 pts
-Trump vs Harris tied in GA-toss up
-Trump up 1 NC- New addition—toss up

Bruno instant analysis- Kamala made this race interesting and looks like it will be decided by 7 states a couple months out. These debates, if they happen, will be so big. Kamala and Trump both have to perform but easily can see both of them shitting the bed during a debate haha.

It’s coming down to turnout by both sides and it seems like the Dems still have the momentum. I think as Kamala is on TV and speaking more then the more she will lose votes compared to Trump since the republicans base is pretty set on Trump.

My September prediction as of today is Trump being the new president in 2024.

 

[MitchLL]

Updated as of 9/3/24, last updated 7/29/24:
-Trump was up 9 in OH- This seems like OH is Trumps
-Trump up 2 in PA (flipped)-toss up
-Trump/Kamala tied in MI- toss up
-Kamala up 5-9 pts vs Trump MN-Kamala should win MN
-Trump up 1 Wisconsin-toss up
-Trump up 1 vs Harris AZ-toss up, was strong Trump up until Kamala
-Trump up 1 vs Harris NV-toss up, was strong Trump up until Kamala entered
-Trump up 6 vs Harris FL-Kamala gained 4 pts
-Trump vs Harris tied in GA-toss up
-Trump up 1 NC- New addition—toss up

Bruno instant analysis- Kamala made this race interesting and looks like it will be decided by 7 states a couple months out. These debates, if they happen, will be so big. Kamala and Trump both have to perform but easily can see both of them shitting the bed during a debate haha.

It’s coming down to turnout by both sides and it seems like the Dems still have the momentum. I think as Kamala is on TV and speaking more then the more she will lose votes compared to Trump since the republicans base is pretty set on Trump.

My September prediction as of today is Trump being the new president in 2024.

Source of polling numbers?????

 

[BrunoMars420]

Source of polling numbers?????

538, I’ve just been using most recent polling data on each state poll.

 

[StormHawk42]

She’s not where she should be. I still think she can somehow pull it out. She needs an excellent debate performance though.

What I will say though is that if Trump wins, I will have felt like the Dems likely couldn’t have done anything different and it was always inevitable with high inflation and poor immigration perceptions. Biden should have announced he wasn’t running two years ago but my guess is we still would’ve ended up with Kamala but without any momentum and probably a splintered party.

 

[BrunoMars420]

She’s not where she should be. I still think she can somehow pull it out. She needs an excellent debate performance though.

What I will say though is that if Trump wins, I will have felt like the Dems likely couldn’t have done anything different and it was always inevitable with high inflation and poor immigration perceptions. Biden should have announced he wasn’t running two years ago but my guess is we still would’ve ended up with Kamala but without any momentum and probably a splintered party.

I think they did a great job to be put into a position to actually win. You have to think of it as they were down by 4 TDs at halftime before Kamala became the candidate. Now how they got there was probably some of the worst politicking I’ve ever seen with Biden haha.

The honeymoon phase is over and now she has to maintain and gain which is harder than losing the votes.

 

[sober_teacher]

I think they did a great job to be put into a position to actually win. You have to think of it as they were down by 4 TDs at halftime before Kamala became the candidate. Now how they got there was probably some of the worst politicking I’ve ever seen with Biden haha.

The honeymoon phase is over and now she has to maintain and gain which is harder than losing the votes.

It was reported I think on X that Trumps campaign is pulling out of New Hampshire as well for what that’s worth. They nearly won that state in ‘16, I forget what the margin was in ‘20.

 

[StormHawk42]

I think they did a great job to be put into a position to actually win. You have to think of it as they were down by 4 TDs at halftime before Kamala became the candidate. Now how they got there was probably some of the worst politicking I’ve ever seen with Biden haha.

The honeymoon phase is over and now she has to maintain and gain which is harder than losing the votes.

Unless you’re Trump for whatever reason. Just a political unicorn that will just not lose support despite trying to stop a democratic election.

Even if Trump pulls it out though, the GOP is likely in for a long streak of defeats afterwards. Down ballot R’s have gotten killed in the age of Trump. And the bench of new gen D’s is so much better than what the R’s have coming up.

 

[ottumwan in tx]

https://nypost.com/2024/09/02/us-ne... have Trump narrowly winning six of the seven

 

[Aardvark86]

1. The polls at the end of this week will start to give a better idea of where we "really" are, with party chaos, assassination attempts, conventions, kennedy and summer vacations (hopefully more or less) in the rear view mirror.
2. I think it's 3-5 states max, with pennsylvania outcome dictating/determining/restricting pathways of each candidate.
3. Money allocations are interesting. NH is basically irrelevant and has been other than for minor momentum messaging purposes or third line backup plans. But KH moving money to down-ballot races is really interesting, and says one of two things: (i) they're very confident; or (ii) they think local races will be a better driver of turnout than she will. I tend to think it's somewhat more the latter than the former (and a pretty clever tactic), as the former would be a bit foolhardy at this point, no matter what their internal polls say.

 

[CRazzle]

This doesn't help.

 

[hexumhawk]

This doesn't help.

View embedded media

Nothing to see here...just keeping someone on the ballot who has endorsed one of the other candidates! Not even trying to hide their cheating at this point.

 

[CoachH]

Nothing to see here...just keeping someone on the ballot who has endorsed one of the other candidates! Not even trying to hide their cheating at this point.

I forget, does having him on the ballot help or hurt Trump? No effect?

 

[TheCainer]

I forget, does having him on the ballot help or hurt Trump? No effect?

I'm sure Trump's lawyers will try to add the 2 vote totals together.

lol

 

[Chishawk1425]

 

[Dr. Phil Seuss]

This doesn't help.

View embedded media

Dumb

 

[StormHawk42]

Nothing to see here...just keeping someone on the ballot who has endorsed one of the other candidates! Not even trying to hide their cheating at this point.

JFC cry some more.

The douche bag should have followed the rules.

 

[Aardvark86]

CNN has a few state polls out this morning, which are more or less more of the same (ie, no particular movement from other recent ones). Beyond that, the sample period is before labor day, so a little unripe for my taste, and the MOE strikes me as a bit squishy.

 

[sober_teacher]

CNN has a few state polls out this morning, which are more or less more of the same (ie, no particular movement from other recent ones). Beyond that, the sample period is before labor day, so a little unripe for my taste, and the MOE strikes me as a bit squishy.

In the end, I more or less expect Harris to win the popular vote - probably somewhere between Hillary and Bidens final margins. Electoral college will be decided by similar margins as the last two elections imo.

Barring any further unexpected developments of course.

 

[ericram]

Updated as of 9/3/24, last updated 7/29/24:
-Trump was up 9 in OH- This seems like OH is Trumps
-Trump up 2 in PA (flipped)-toss up
-Trump/Kamala tied in MI- toss up
-Kamala up 5-9 pts vs Trump MN-Kamala should win MN
-Trump up 1 Wisconsin-toss up
-Trump up 1 vs Harris AZ-toss up, was strong Trump up until Kamala
-Trump up 1 vs Harris NV-toss up, was strong Trump up until Kamala entered
-Trump up 6 vs Harris FL-Kamala gained 4 pts
-Trump vs Harris tied in GA-toss up
-Trump up 1 NC- New addition—toss up

Bruno instant analysis- Kamala made this race interesting and looks like it will be decided by 7 states a couple months out. These debates, if they happen, will be so big. Kamala and Trump both have to perform but easily can see both of them shitting the bed during a debate haha.

It’s coming down to turnout by both sides and it seems like the Dems still have the momentum. I think as Kamala is on TV and speaking more then the more she will lose votes compared to Trump since the republicans base is pretty set on Trump.

My September prediction as of today is Trump being the new president in 2024.

Doubt it. Biff continues to fail to connect with normal voters. His flip flop on abortion is pathetic.

 

[torbee]

In the end, I more or less expect Harris to win the popular vote - probably somewhere between Hillary and Bidens final margins. Electoral college will be decided by similar margins as the last two elections imo.

Barring any further unexpected developments of course.

I think both the Democratic and Republican nominees are likely to get fewer votes this time.

Harris should win the popular vote quite easily by several million - continuing an ongoing trend.

Once again, due to the antiquated Electoral College, the less popular, less vote-getting candidate has a narrow path to victory which would be unfortunate.

 

[sober_teacher]

I think both the Democratic and Republican nominees are likely to get fewer votes this time.

Harris should win the popular vote quite easily by several million - continuing an ongoing trend.

Once again, due to the antiquated Electoral College, the less popular, less vote-getting candidate has a narrow path to victory which would be unfortunate.

Not sure I see voter participation declining like that. The percentage perhaps, but the raw total will still be increased I think.

 

[DFSNOLE]

In the end, I more or less expect Harris to win the popular vote - probably somewhere between Hillary and Bidens final margins. Electoral college will be decided by similar margins as the last two elections imo.

Barring any further unexpected developments of course.

I saw that the Real Clear Politics electoral college predictor favors Harris for the first time.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

I think both the Democratic and Republican nominees are likely to get fewer votes this time.

Harris should win the popular vote quite easily by several million - continuing an ongoing trend.

Once again, due to the antiquated Electoral College, the less popular, less vote-getting candidate has a narrow path to victory which would be unfortunate.

It honestly looks like everything turns on PA.

Wonderful system that the voters in one state determine the fate of the entire nation.