D1Baseball Weekly Chat (5/1)

[Alum-Ni]

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 1 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the very latest D1Baseball Top 25 Rankings and the overall postseason picture? Ask the experts.

d1baseball.com

As usual...Big Ten and relevant national questions are what I will post

Andrew Willsly: What is Michigan State's chances at a regional?

Aaron Fitt: The Spartans just keep hanging around the at-large race -- the RPI has kept them out of our projected field, but at No. 66, they're really still in striking distance, with solid opportunities to boost the RPI over the next three weekends (road series at Illinois and Iowa, then home vs. Indiana). If Michigan State wins two of those three series, gets inside the top 50 or so in the RPI and finishes second or third in the league, I think they've got a real chance. The path is there.

=============================

Evan: If Maryland keeps up the momentum is there a chance they can host another regional this year? Seems like their last three series are pretty winnable.

Kendall Rogers: Evan -- Maryland will be on the road unless something drastic changes. Right now, the Terps have no pathway to be in the Top 32 of the RPI. If that holds, there's zero shot Maryland is hosting a regional. The worst RPI to host in the Top 16 era was a team that finished around No. 23-24.

=============================

BFalS Brendan: My sick fascination with Big Ten baseball continues. After Maryland routed Indiana, everyone in the top half seems to have RPI issues, gaudy records and are within a series of each other in the conference standings. Last year Michigan saved the league from being a 1-bid league, this year it seems safe to have three at-large bids in Maryland, Indiana and Iowa. Can you see a Michigan State and/or Rutgers sneak in? Will Michigan win the tournament yet again?

Kendall Rogers: Right now, I would definitely have Maryland and Indiana in the Field of 64. I also would have Iowa in the field, but it would be close. That series against Michigan State in a couple of weekends could loom pretty large.

 

[AuroraHawk]

As always … thanks. Good stuff.

 

[Franisdaman]

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 1 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the very latest D1Baseball Top 25 Rankings and the overall postseason picture? Ask the experts.

d1baseball.com

As usual...Big Ten and relevant national questions are what I will post

Andrew Willsly: What is Michigan State's chances at a regional?

Aaron Fitt: The Spartans just keep hanging around the at-large race -- the RPI has kept them out of our projected field, but at No. 66, they're really still in striking distance, with solid opportunities to boost the RPI over the next three weekends (road series at Illinois and Iowa, then home vs. Indiana). If Michigan State wins two of those three series, gets inside the top 50 or so in the RPI and finishes second or third in the league, I think they've got a real chance. The path is there.

=============================

Evan: If Maryland keeps up the momentum is there a chance they can host another regional this year? Seems like their last three series are pretty winnable.

Kendall Rogers: Evan -- Maryland will be on the road unless something drastic changes. Right now, the Terps have no pathway to be in the Top 32 of the RPI. If that holds, there's zero shot Maryland is hosting a regional. The worst RPI to host in the Top 16 era was a team that finished around No. 23-24.

=============================

BFalS Brendan: My sick fascination with Big Ten baseball continues. After Maryland routed Indiana, everyone in the top half seems to have RPI issues, gaudy records and are within a series of each other in the conference standings. Last year Michigan saved the league from being a 1-bid league, this year it seems safe to have three at-large bids in Maryland, Indiana and Iowa. Can you see a Michigan State and/or Rutgers sneak in? Will Michigan win the tournament yet again?

Kendall Rogers: Right now, I would definitely have Maryland and Indiana in the Field of 64. I also would have Iowa in the field, but it would be close. That series against Michigan State in a couple of weekends could loom pretty large.

Seems like the B1G is a 2 bid league and to get a 3rd bid the selection committee would have to hold their nose.

As @EvilMonkeyInTheCloset would say, BAU.

 

[BigOHawk]

Aurora and Franny existing in same thread in a civil manner, I approve...they both bring good acumen on the boards, keep it up! That last comment still scares me "Iowa should be in." Not exactly a warm fuzzy and karma has NOT been on our side...see Aurora's other throwback thread!

 

[Franisdaman]

Iowa is projected as a 3 seed in the Terre Haute Regional in this week's D1Baseball Field of 64.

Iowa is not considered a bubble team, but will face Michigan State (Next 4 Out) in a huge series May 12-May 14.

 

[Franisdaman]

Consolidate posts into one thread for the final push?

Here is the latest d1Baseball projection: https://d1baseball.com/projections/d1baseball-field-of-64-projections-week-12/

Iowa remains projected as a #3. In this projection, they would travel to Terre Haute (Indiana State hosting) and would be matched up against the #2 seed Tennessee. That would be a really tough match-up. The Vols are fresh off destroying a really good Wofford team and have back to back sweeps of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.

Iowa is not listed as one of the final 5 teams in. Michigan State has entered the "final five teams out. To an earlier post by @BigOHawk, Elon is listed as a bubble team. Even though Campbell is ahead of Iowa on the RPI ladder, it would probably be a good thing at this juncture if bubble teams start dropping games.

sounds like a good idea to not create unnecessary, duplicate threads

 

[AuroraHawk]

sounds like a good idea to not create unnecessary, duplicate threads

On the one hand, I'm surprised that you'd take the time to read a post by someone whom you consider to write moronic posts and consistently lies.

On the other hand, I've seen you get your feathers ruffled about who should post in what thread . . . particularly when you started the thread. So I'm not surprised at the snarky post directed at me.

Either way, looks like your post #5 on this thread was at 2:33 p.m. while the post that I made in the other thread was posted at 2:37 p.m. I wasn't aware of any protocol requiring me to scan through what may have been posted elsewhere before hitting "post reply."

RME.

 

[Franisdaman]

On the one hand, I'm surprised that you'd take the time to read a post by someone whom you consider to write moronic posts and consistently lies.

On the other hand, I've seen you get your feathers ruffled about who should post in what thread . . . particularly when you started the thread. So I'm not surprised at the snarky post directed at me.

Either way, looks like your post #5 on this thread was at 2:33 p.m. while the post that I made in the other thread was posted at 2:37 p.m. I wasn't aware of any protocol requiring me to scan through what may have been posted elsewhere before hitting "post reply."

RME.

This is a D1 Baseball thread where the discussion is on the NCAA Tournament; you've posted in it. Maybe your forgot. Not.

I then posted the latest NCAA Tournament projections from D1 baseball.

And then some moron (you) started another D1 thread with the same projections, the same information.

The question is why? How many NCAA Tournament discussion threads do you want?

You obviously shouldn't have needed to to scan through existing threads when you already knew this one existed. You should have just come to this existing thread, posted, and hit "post reply."

And news flash: I didn't start this thread.

 

[Franisdaman]

Was just coming here to post this, I don't mind a thread or two on projections, I just simply appreciate some good baseball chatter and info and prognostications re: "the field" and Iowa. MSU can climb the ladder, as noted above probably in the 'first five out' list...agreed on bubble teams, they need to drop out and NOT be a bid stealer in a conf. tourney (see Creighton).

Yeah, as @Alum-Ni has in his original post and as I wrote this afternoon, the Michigan State series May 12-14 is going to be huge.

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Franisdaman]

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 1 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the very latest D1Baseball Top 25 Rankings and the overall postseason picture? Ask the experts.

d1baseball.com

As usual...Big Ten and relevant national questions are what I will post

Andrew Willsly: What is Michigan State's chances at a regional?

Aaron Fitt: The Spartans just keep hanging around the at-large race -- the RPI has kept them out of our projected field, but at No. 66, they're really still in striking distance, with solid opportunities to boost the RPI over the next three weekends (road series at Illinois and Iowa, then home vs. Indiana). If Michigan State wins two of those three series, gets inside the top 50 or so in the RPI and finishes second or third in the league, I think they've got a real chance. The path is there.

=============================

Evan: If Maryland keeps up the momentum is there a chance they can host another regional this year? Seems like their last three series are pretty winnable.

Kendall Rogers: Evan -- Maryland will be on the road unless something drastic changes. Right now, the Terps have no pathway to be in the Top 32 of the RPI. If that holds, there's zero shot Maryland is hosting a regional. The worst RPI to host in the Top 16 era was a team that finished around No. 23-24.

=============================

BFalS Brendan: My sick fascination with Big Ten baseball continues. After Maryland routed Indiana, everyone in the top half seems to have RPI issues, gaudy records and are within a series of each other in the conference standings. Last year Michigan saved the league from being a 1-bid league, this year it seems safe to have three at-large bids in Maryland, Indiana and Iowa. Can you see a Michigan State and/or Rutgers sneak in? Will Michigan win the tournament yet again?

Kendall Rogers: Right now, I would definitely have Maryland and Indiana in the Field of 64. I also would have Iowa in the field, but it would be close. That series against Michigan State in a couple of weekends could loom pretty large.

I appreciate your contributions

It will be interesting how many teams from the B1G get in when it's all said and done

 

[BigOHawk]

I still can't see a path for Sparty if they have an RPI in the 50s, heck, just look at Rutgers resume from last year, that should be your benchmark as @AuroraHawk posted earlier this week. Now a 2nd or 3rd place B10 finish may help however consider who you all played, in a round robin schedule, rainouts, cancels, midweek games, etc you need to consider the full picture. That said, RPI will take some of that into effect.

 

[Franisdaman]

I still can't see a path for Sparty if they have an RPI in the 50s, heck, just look at Rutgers resume from last year, that should be your benchmark as @AuroraHawk posted earlier this week. Now a 2nd or 3rd place B10 finish may help however consider who you all played, in a round robin schedule, rainouts, cancels, midweek games, etc you need to consider the full picture. That said, RPI will take some of that into effect.

I don't trust Selection Committees. They use a team's RPI in their arguments when it's convenient.

I hope the B1G gets 3 teams selected, but like I said, I think the Selection Committee would prefer no more than 2 B1G teams and would hold their nose if they had to select a 3rd B1G team. I hope they prove me wrong and that 3 B1G teams solidly get in the field of 64.

 

[BigOHawk]

I don't trust Selection Committees. They use a team's RPI in their arguments when it's convenient.

I hope the B1G gets 3 teams selected, but like I said, I think the Selection Committee would prefer no more than 2 B1G teams and would hold their nose if they had to select a 3rd B1G team. I hope they prove me wrong and that 3 B1G teams solidly get in the field of 64.

Southern bias at play, and you are right, it seems that 3rd Big Ten team is a precarious situation and they would rather sneak in another SEC or ACC team!

 

[AuroraHawk]

Last year's two controversial omissions were NC State and Rutgers and eyebrow raising inclusions were Ole Miss and Grand Canyon.

History tells us that Ole Miss proved the committee right by winning it all but Grand Canyon went 0-2 in its regional.

Here's a link which appears to list the 10 current members of the committee: https://web1.ncaa.org/committees/committees_roster.jsp?CommitteeName=1MBA

See also: https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/baseball/d1/Jan2023D1MBA_ABCAReport.pdf

Last year's selection committee included members from the Pac-12 (Jennifer Cohen from U of Washington); Mid-American (Bob Moosbrugger from Bowling Green) and ASUN (Jeff Altier from Stetson).

You'll note that, while the SEC, Pac-12 and Big 12 had representation on the Committee last year, the ACC and B1G did not. Who were the two controversial omissions? One from the ACC and one from the B1G.

Same story this year; no committee member from B1G or ACC.

You'll also note that 3 members were scheduled to rotate off at end of August 2023. One from the SEC, one from the Big 12 and one from the MAC.

Florida State's AD (ACC) was approved to join the the committee as of 9/1/23: https://seminoles.com/alford-baseball-cmt/
ECU's AD (AAC) was approved to join the committee as of 9/1/23: https://ecupirates.com/news/2023/3/21/general-gilbert-named-to-ncaa-baseball-committee.aspx

I don't know who the 3rd new committee member will be.

This is a "major" problem for the B1G - according to Heller. There is literally no representation on the NCAA Division I Baseball Committee that is going to be a "voice of support" for B1G baseball.