Democrat Darling Nate Silver July 1 Model
- Thread starter Phenomenally Frantastic
- Start date
Not sure where you got this. The site shows no change post debate.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
From your link:Not sure where you got this. The site shows no change post debate.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
After a dismal performance at the first presidential debate, Biden has lost ground in our national polling average — essentially reversing the gains he made after Trump’s conviction. However, our forecast has not yet seen significant movement — it “knows” that it’s still relatively early and more polling twists and turns likely lie ahead. New economic data at the end of last week also helped boost Biden’s outlook as far as the “fundamentals” are concerned, counteracting Trump’s gains in the polls.
Not sure where you got this. The site shows no change post debate.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
Directly from Nate Silver’s X account. As the OP clearly shows. How freaking delusional are you?
See my above post. How delusional are you?
Huey, Nate is no longer affiliated with 538.
And pf, Nate is hardly a democratic darling after 2016.
Everyone is a democratic darling if they don't agree with OP.
Sigh…I’ll do your homework for you.
A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight
After Disney refused to re-up Nate Silver’s contract at the influential polling blog FiveThirtyEight, it hired his quasi rival, G. Elliott Morris.
nymag.com
“A major election-polling shakeup began three weeks ago, when, as part of Disney’s push to cut 7,000 jobs, ABC News decided not to renew the contract of FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver. Though Disney has been cutting costs across the board, this was still an unexpected move: Silver has his critics, but he’s generally considered one of the best minds in election forecasting.”
Looks delusionalSigh…I’ll do your homework for you.
A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEight
After Disney refused to re-up Nate Silver’s contract at the influential polling blog FiveThirtyEight, it hired his quasi rival, G. Elliott Morris.
“A major election-polling shakeup began three weeks ago, when, as part of Disney’s push to cut 7,000 jobs, ABC News decided not to renew the contract of FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver. Though Disney has been cutting costs across the board, this was still an unexpected move: Silver has his critics, but he’s generally considered one of the best minds in election forecasting.”
Shocking Disney’s site has no change post debate.
While the esteemed expert forecaster shows a dramatic plunge.
Delusional thy name is @Huey Grey
While the esteemed expert forecaster shows a dramatic plunge.
Delusional thy name is @Huey Grey
Is the grand conspiracy in the room with us now as we speak?
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Ask Huey, he/she/they are the one who posted an off topic non-relevant reply and feigned confusion.
Does ANYONE have a take on the OP? Good God.
Knock knock, anyone home?
Silver’s numbers are not far off from the betting sites which have Joe now down below 20% chance to win … these numbers get updated every 5 minutes.
Election Betting Odds
Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...
www.electionbettingodds.com
a handful of additional polls seem to have dropped this afternoon - all national, and all based on 'registered' voters, so of very limited utility. but directionally, they do seem to reinforce what silver suggested about tailing indicators that will catch up with their forecast model.
He's an Elon Musk cultist who fancies himself a free thinker but in actuality he lets a stranger (who doesn't care about him) dictate what his life views. He doesn't have a strong sense of self or morality and doesn't have the mental capacity to analyze the opposite views of arguments from his own.
The betting sites are usually a leading indicator on where the polls are going by several days. It just takes time to conduct these polls with any accuracy.
Fortune
Betting markets called the presidential election more accurately than polls
BYREY MASHAYEKHI
November 19, 2020 at 8:39 AM EST
With pollsters still reeling from a presidential election in which most of them overestimated Joe Biden’s winning margins, one group of prognosticators is taking the opportunity to gloat about how much better they fared in comparison.
Betting markets had a big election season, with international bookmakers seeing record amounts of wagering on the 2020 race and an unprecedented interest in betting odds as a means of forecasting the election’s result. And now that the contest is all over bar the shouting, some betting market players are noting that they were able to call the race more accurately than the polls did.
According to online betting website US-Bookies.com, the odds-on betting favorite won 49 of the 50 states up for grabs in the election, with Georgia being the only exception. Biden surprised many observers—and most polls—by beating Donald Trump in the Peach State by roughly 14,000 votes, becoming the first Democrat since 1992 to carry Georgia.
Those same betting odds forecasted that Biden would win the election with 310 electoral college votes, according to US-Bookies, despite some polls predicting a momentous landslide that would have given Biden as many as 350 electoral votes. With the winner now called in all 50 states, Biden will end up winning the White House with 306 electoral votes, just shy of betting markets’ 310-vote projection.
Betting odds appeared to provide a more realistic reflection of the dynamics in states like Florida, which Trump won handily despite many polls giving Biden an edge going into the election. While polls had Biden ahead by roughly 1% on average in Florida, according to RealClearPolitics, oddsmakers gave Trump 8-to-13 odds—or a 62% implied probability—of carrying the state, per US-Bookies.
Make no mistake...I am 100% behind Joe Biden remaining in the election. He is, by far, the best candidate the dems can muster and should remain - go Joe go. The internal polling being leaked this afternoon needs to be ignored. It's just gonna take a little extra...ahem...'turnout'...to steal this one. Definitely doable.
true, though this far out the betting models are subject to much more long term volatility
at the end of the day, notwithstanding all of the current noise, i still think that come november he is the favorite taking into account the electoral college states that will determine this thing.
The dukes are trying to corner the market!!!
Mrs a just told me a big motorcade made its way thru arlington, likely to a fundraiser.
I think Harris is a vapid person but at least she could stay awake through an entire National Security briefing.
Out of her, Biden, and Trump, one ain't bad.
First the media said he was sick. Even though the next day at the campaign rally he seemed perfectly fine.
Now this lie:
President Joe Biden has blamed his poor debate performance last week on jet lag, telling reporters that he "wasn't very smart" for "travelling around the world a couple of times" before the debate.
"I didn’t listen to my staff... and then I nearly fell asleep on stage,” he said.
Mr Biden, 81, last returned from travel on 15 June, nearly two weeks ahead of the 27 June debate.
www.bbc.com
Anyone else get bad 12 days jet lag?
Now this lie:
President Joe Biden has blamed his poor debate performance last week on jet lag, telling reporters that he "wasn't very smart" for "travelling around the world a couple of times" before the debate.
"I didn’t listen to my staff... and then I nearly fell asleep on stage,” he said.
Mr Biden, 81, last returned from travel on 15 June, nearly two weeks ahead of the 27 June debate.
Biden blames jet lag and travel for poor debate performance
The president's comments come after a first Democrat in Congress called for him to withdraw from the election.
www.bbc.com
Anyone else get bad 12 days jet lag?
Silver has turned into a hack. Seriously, read his Twitter feed. I believe Trump will beat Biden, but Nate went off the deep-end some time ago. His posts read like someone who was promised a position in a Harris Administration.
I thought they blamed the staff then they blamed CNN then they blamed NBC…. I wouldn’t doubt if Jill and Hunter eventually get blamed.First the media said he was sick. Even though the next day at the campaign rally he seemed perfectly fine.
Now this lie:
President Joe Biden has blamed his poor debate performance last week on jet lag, telling reporters that he "wasn't very smart" for "travelling around the world a couple of times" before the debate.
"I didn’t listen to my staff... and then I nearly fell asleep on stage,” he said.
Mr Biden, 81, last returned from travel on 15 June, nearly two weeks ahead of the 27 June debate.
Biden blames jet lag and travel for poor debate performance
The president's comments come after a first Democrat in Congress called for him to withdraw from the election.
Anyone else get bad 12 days jet lag?
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