Maybe. But I think the timing is right now.
After this year, Fran only has three years left on his contract. Most of the time, you want your high-profile coaches to have at least 5 years left on their contract for recruiting purposes. When you get down to 2 or 3 years, other coaches are going to start using that against you.
So, in other words, now is the time for Iowa to make a decision on Fran. If you like him, you give him an extension. If you don't, you ante up the cash to move on.
I can't believe he would get an extension at this point. Fans would riot. So the only other option is to buy him out.
I believe Fran's buyout is now down to around $4.2 million, from what I've seen reported. That's not a huge amount. We bought out Todd Lickliter for $2.4 million in 2010, which would amount to around $3.47 million in today's dollars. In the grand scheme of things, that's not much more money, especially if you pay it out over several years, and consider the revenue you could make up in new ticket sales.
Besides that, the university absolutely has to put together a marketing plan to get more fans to games (discount tickets/better game-day experience, etc.). But I don't think that plan will work as long as Fran is still the coach. If you waste the capital now on a "come out and support the Hawks" campaign and it flops, it will be exponentially harder the next time around.
So if you want to argue that it's been time for years, that's fine. But I believe the status of Fran's contract situation makes it more advantageous and cost-effective to make a change now.