Just some idle thoughts before the season becomes formal, fwiw.
Executive Summary:
This team should be fun to watch play and improve, but one would think this drink will go down well but leave a funky aftertaste as one can see us losing a lot of close games this year - many where we had the lead in the last 5 minutes. The word "tease" comes to mind with this team, but hopefully that just means next year we'll be able to close the deal.
Offense:
In the darker years, Iowa would seem to have 1 legitimate scorer (Gatens, et al). In the NIT years, we would seem to have 2, and lately we've been pushing for a 3rd to emerge. This year's team would seem to have 3 guys who we can count on: Jok, Cook and Baer. Baer isn't great at any one offensive skill, but he's good at a lot of things in a lot of different areas of the court, and he has great awareness on both ends. He'll take what the defense is giving us and give us what our offense needs at the time.
Other players have a lot of promise on this end, but there are question marks. Can Williams shoot consistently enough? Can Uhl be more consistent in his decisions and make more shots? What can Pemsl, Kreiner, Dailey and Bohannon bring? Will Ellingson be the 40% three point shooter we need him to be? Will Jones be healthy? Can Wagner be more than just a defender and garbage player? Lots of potential here - enough to think we'll be pretty decent on offense - but enough question marks that we're not quite sure who is going to be the one to step up. But there are a lot of legitimate candidates.
I strongly believe that to be good offensively against Top 25 teams you need to have at least three 3 point shooters (35% or better) on the court at any given time. This team has quite a few options to do that (Jok, Baer, Uhl, Ellingson, Bohannon, Jones) and some others that can shoot it a bit too (25% or better) in Cook, Kreiner, Moss/Dailey (if they play) and hopefully Williams. The question is whether those same players that emerge here, aren't going to give it all away on the defensive end.
Defense:
We lose a very good positional defensive player an defensive rebounder in Woody, a shot block deterrent in Uthoff, and two above average defensive guards in Gesell and Clemmons. They weren't always the best on offense, but these 4 are significant defensive losses and experienced players down the stretch of games.
The good news is that I trust Wagner on this end, Williams could cause problems for teams, and Cook has potential. Ellingson, Uhl and Jok should be about the same as last year (which is to say very average).
The bad news is that a lot of the new blood is inexperienced and has some holes defensively. Jones lacks good defensive habits and awareness. Pemsl lacks lateral quickness. Bohannon lacks size. Kreiner lacks experience against Big 10 post play. Dailey is under developed physically. A lot to be concerned about here.
Remember when Woody couldn't hedge screens on the perimeter without fouling? He was pretty good at that last year, but those are the type of things this new group will really struggle with. Gesell and Clemmons didn't get many steals, but they were decent at keeping their guy in front of them most of the time and defensive rebounding. How quickly the new guys can gel with the veterans in order to form a cohesive defensive product on the court is a huge question.
Player analysis:
Point Guard:
- Williams should start here. His length helps him on both ends, and he appeared to be under control and understanding his role in the exhibition. Not sure what he'll shoot from 3 point land, but in all other respects seems like a solid fit with our main scorers. It's nice to have a PG who can finish at the rim too, as he'll get some chances to cut to the rim for passes from our main scorers who will get a lot of attention when the ball is in their hands. Don't underestimate how nice his length is for feeding the post - something we'll actually do this year (including him posting up probably!)
- Bohannon should be a great fit off the bench, and brings something different. What I like most about him is his ability to shoot and the fact that he just oozes "baller". By that I mean he is hyper competitive, hustles all the time, knows where he is going, and isn't afraid of the situation. Needs to understand what a good shot is, but I'm not worried about his ability to contribute.
Shooting Guard:
- Jok looked extremely good in the scrimmage, and should get most of the attention from opposing defenses. Just a pure shooter with a quick stroke. Needs to stay healthy, and get help. Cook will be his best friend in that regard – will be interesting to see how well Cook passes from the paint to the perimeter when Jok’s defender has his head turned. Not expecting Jok’s driving game to change much from last year, but I think we have enough scorers that we won’t need him to force too much this year.
- Ellingson is a question mark, but is certainly capable of shooting 40% or better from 3 with the right shot selection. He’s solid defensively but won’t get many minutes if he’s not shooting 40% or better. We have other guys that can shoot 33% and do other things as well.
- Moss hasn’t developed like many of us would have liked, but there is still a lot of time especially if it is more mental than skill. It’s a long season, and he could emerge. Would be nice to add another athlete with scoring ability to our options, especially since injuries will occur and we could need him to play 10 mpg at some point.
Small Forward:
- Baer is just such an efficient player that I think he gets overlooked a lot. He does a lot of the small things well, and doesn’t force anything. Against Villanova it was clear that our top options weren’t able to generate anything, and he stepped up and got more aggressive. He just seems to fill in the gaps for the team in whatever area they need at the moment – defense, rebounding, scoring. He’s our X factor imo, but one with known value.
- Uhl is an enigma wrapped inside a fortune cookie. He has a lot of talent and is a mismatch for SF’s and PF’s due to his size and ball handling capability. Has length on defense and is a willing rebounder and post defender. He’s our X factor, but one with unknown value. If he can get it together with his decision making, he’ll add a lot. Last year we needed him to become our 3rd scorer once defenses got better (Big 10 season) and figured us out. I don’t think he’ll have quite as much pressure to score this season, so hopefully he can be more selective when he forces the action.
- Dailey will likely redshirt, but he reminds me a lot of Baer – undersized in terms of muscle, but good in a lot of different areas (defense, shooting, passing) but even more importantly he is unselfish and has great awareness on both ends. That projects VERY well down the road imo. May not be a star, but teams only need 1-2 of those. What they also need is guys like Baer and Dailey to make it all come together.
Power Forward:
- Cook is a beast. I am a big fan of post play, and his combination of size, athleticism and good feet just makes people like me hyperventilate with expectations. What I wasn’t expecting was his shot developing from 15 to 20 feet and his ball handling with either hand. Holy krikey! His ability to not just do a few of the standard post moves, but the more difficult counters off of them and to take advantage of his size while doing it is extremely impressive. If his shooting to 20 feet becomes consistent, he’s a 2 year player here, at most 3. Too many good things about him. Hopefully he works as hard on defense as he does his 3 point shot J
- Pemsl is going to be surprisingly good on offense. His size, hands and feet give him a good foundation that makes it difficult for even longer defenders to stop once he gets on the block, especially the left block where he can finish with his left hand. He’s also good in the open court and, like Cook, Uhl and Baer can help lead the break. My big question for him is whether he can defend longer players in the post, or has the lateral quickness to defend stretch 4’s. I think he’ll be foul prone in both situations, but a good rebounder.
Center:
- Wagner is our most trusted returning defender, and brings a lot of toughness to this team. He’s been working on his face up shot, and if teams have to respect that it will open up his 1 to 2 dribble drive to the rim. That will be key on offense. I think we’ll have to play him a lot of minutes simply because we need his defensive presence to offset some of the other guys on the floor.
- Kreiner projects well in the future – more athletic than many realize, and a kid who can play as a stretch 4 or stretch 5 and still be “strong” inside. How much he can add this year is a question, but I know he likes to finish with dunks like Cook does and that he’s not stiff at all like Woody but much more fluid like Uhl. If he’s leading in rebounding in practice, hopefully that’s because he’s an athletic beast and not because our other bigs lack passion in that area.
Projected minutes in Big 10 play:
PG: Williams 25, Bohannon 15
SG: Jok 30, Ellingson 5, Moss/Dailey/Bohannon 5 (TBD)
SF: Baer 25, Uhl 15
PF: Cook 20, Uhl 10, Jones/Pemsl 10 (Jones emergence to 15+ min would put Cook at Center more, lowering Kreiner and Pemsl's minutes)
C: Wagner 20, Cook 10, Kreiner 10 (if Kreiner gets fewer minutes, frees up more at PF)
RS: Dailey (maybe Pemsl if Jones gets to 100%)
Pemsl and Kreiner minutes will be dictated heavily by Jones – not enough minutes at PF both Pemsl and Jones, and would also push Cook to Center more lowering Kreiner's role.
Executive Summary:
This team should be fun to watch play and improve, but one would think this drink will go down well but leave a funky aftertaste as one can see us losing a lot of close games this year - many where we had the lead in the last 5 minutes. The word "tease" comes to mind with this team, but hopefully that just means next year we'll be able to close the deal.
Offense:
In the darker years, Iowa would seem to have 1 legitimate scorer (Gatens, et al). In the NIT years, we would seem to have 2, and lately we've been pushing for a 3rd to emerge. This year's team would seem to have 3 guys who we can count on: Jok, Cook and Baer. Baer isn't great at any one offensive skill, but he's good at a lot of things in a lot of different areas of the court, and he has great awareness on both ends. He'll take what the defense is giving us and give us what our offense needs at the time.
Other players have a lot of promise on this end, but there are question marks. Can Williams shoot consistently enough? Can Uhl be more consistent in his decisions and make more shots? What can Pemsl, Kreiner, Dailey and Bohannon bring? Will Ellingson be the 40% three point shooter we need him to be? Will Jones be healthy? Can Wagner be more than just a defender and garbage player? Lots of potential here - enough to think we'll be pretty decent on offense - but enough question marks that we're not quite sure who is going to be the one to step up. But there are a lot of legitimate candidates.
I strongly believe that to be good offensively against Top 25 teams you need to have at least three 3 point shooters (35% or better) on the court at any given time. This team has quite a few options to do that (Jok, Baer, Uhl, Ellingson, Bohannon, Jones) and some others that can shoot it a bit too (25% or better) in Cook, Kreiner, Moss/Dailey (if they play) and hopefully Williams. The question is whether those same players that emerge here, aren't going to give it all away on the defensive end.
Defense:
We lose a very good positional defensive player an defensive rebounder in Woody, a shot block deterrent in Uthoff, and two above average defensive guards in Gesell and Clemmons. They weren't always the best on offense, but these 4 are significant defensive losses and experienced players down the stretch of games.
The good news is that I trust Wagner on this end, Williams could cause problems for teams, and Cook has potential. Ellingson, Uhl and Jok should be about the same as last year (which is to say very average).
The bad news is that a lot of the new blood is inexperienced and has some holes defensively. Jones lacks good defensive habits and awareness. Pemsl lacks lateral quickness. Bohannon lacks size. Kreiner lacks experience against Big 10 post play. Dailey is under developed physically. A lot to be concerned about here.
Remember when Woody couldn't hedge screens on the perimeter without fouling? He was pretty good at that last year, but those are the type of things this new group will really struggle with. Gesell and Clemmons didn't get many steals, but they were decent at keeping their guy in front of them most of the time and defensive rebounding. How quickly the new guys can gel with the veterans in order to form a cohesive defensive product on the court is a huge question.
Player analysis:
Point Guard:
- Williams should start here. His length helps him on both ends, and he appeared to be under control and understanding his role in the exhibition. Not sure what he'll shoot from 3 point land, but in all other respects seems like a solid fit with our main scorers. It's nice to have a PG who can finish at the rim too, as he'll get some chances to cut to the rim for passes from our main scorers who will get a lot of attention when the ball is in their hands. Don't underestimate how nice his length is for feeding the post - something we'll actually do this year (including him posting up probably!)
- Bohannon should be a great fit off the bench, and brings something different. What I like most about him is his ability to shoot and the fact that he just oozes "baller". By that I mean he is hyper competitive, hustles all the time, knows where he is going, and isn't afraid of the situation. Needs to understand what a good shot is, but I'm not worried about his ability to contribute.
Shooting Guard:
- Jok looked extremely good in the scrimmage, and should get most of the attention from opposing defenses. Just a pure shooter with a quick stroke. Needs to stay healthy, and get help. Cook will be his best friend in that regard – will be interesting to see how well Cook passes from the paint to the perimeter when Jok’s defender has his head turned. Not expecting Jok’s driving game to change much from last year, but I think we have enough scorers that we won’t need him to force too much this year.
- Ellingson is a question mark, but is certainly capable of shooting 40% or better from 3 with the right shot selection. He’s solid defensively but won’t get many minutes if he’s not shooting 40% or better. We have other guys that can shoot 33% and do other things as well.
- Moss hasn’t developed like many of us would have liked, but there is still a lot of time especially if it is more mental than skill. It’s a long season, and he could emerge. Would be nice to add another athlete with scoring ability to our options, especially since injuries will occur and we could need him to play 10 mpg at some point.
Small Forward:
- Baer is just such an efficient player that I think he gets overlooked a lot. He does a lot of the small things well, and doesn’t force anything. Against Villanova it was clear that our top options weren’t able to generate anything, and he stepped up and got more aggressive. He just seems to fill in the gaps for the team in whatever area they need at the moment – defense, rebounding, scoring. He’s our X factor imo, but one with known value.
- Uhl is an enigma wrapped inside a fortune cookie. He has a lot of talent and is a mismatch for SF’s and PF’s due to his size and ball handling capability. Has length on defense and is a willing rebounder and post defender. He’s our X factor, but one with unknown value. If he can get it together with his decision making, he’ll add a lot. Last year we needed him to become our 3rd scorer once defenses got better (Big 10 season) and figured us out. I don’t think he’ll have quite as much pressure to score this season, so hopefully he can be more selective when he forces the action.
- Dailey will likely redshirt, but he reminds me a lot of Baer – undersized in terms of muscle, but good in a lot of different areas (defense, shooting, passing) but even more importantly he is unselfish and has great awareness on both ends. That projects VERY well down the road imo. May not be a star, but teams only need 1-2 of those. What they also need is guys like Baer and Dailey to make it all come together.
Power Forward:
- Cook is a beast. I am a big fan of post play, and his combination of size, athleticism and good feet just makes people like me hyperventilate with expectations. What I wasn’t expecting was his shot developing from 15 to 20 feet and his ball handling with either hand. Holy krikey! His ability to not just do a few of the standard post moves, but the more difficult counters off of them and to take advantage of his size while doing it is extremely impressive. If his shooting to 20 feet becomes consistent, he’s a 2 year player here, at most 3. Too many good things about him. Hopefully he works as hard on defense as he does his 3 point shot J
- Pemsl is going to be surprisingly good on offense. His size, hands and feet give him a good foundation that makes it difficult for even longer defenders to stop once he gets on the block, especially the left block where he can finish with his left hand. He’s also good in the open court and, like Cook, Uhl and Baer can help lead the break. My big question for him is whether he can defend longer players in the post, or has the lateral quickness to defend stretch 4’s. I think he’ll be foul prone in both situations, but a good rebounder.
Center:
- Wagner is our most trusted returning defender, and brings a lot of toughness to this team. He’s been working on his face up shot, and if teams have to respect that it will open up his 1 to 2 dribble drive to the rim. That will be key on offense. I think we’ll have to play him a lot of minutes simply because we need his defensive presence to offset some of the other guys on the floor.
- Kreiner projects well in the future – more athletic than many realize, and a kid who can play as a stretch 4 or stretch 5 and still be “strong” inside. How much he can add this year is a question, but I know he likes to finish with dunks like Cook does and that he’s not stiff at all like Woody but much more fluid like Uhl. If he’s leading in rebounding in practice, hopefully that’s because he’s an athletic beast and not because our other bigs lack passion in that area.
Projected minutes in Big 10 play:
PG: Williams 25, Bohannon 15
SG: Jok 30, Ellingson 5, Moss/Dailey/Bohannon 5 (TBD)
SF: Baer 25, Uhl 15
PF: Cook 20, Uhl 10, Jones/Pemsl 10 (Jones emergence to 15+ min would put Cook at Center more, lowering Kreiner and Pemsl's minutes)
C: Wagner 20, Cook 10, Kreiner 10 (if Kreiner gets fewer minutes, frees up more at PF)
RS: Dailey (maybe Pemsl if Jones gets to 100%)
Pemsl and Kreiner minutes will be dictated heavily by Jones – not enough minutes at PF both Pemsl and Jones, and would also push Cook to Center more lowering Kreiner's role.
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