No team punts from their opponent's territory on 4th and 2 more than Iowa. Not only does that make for boring football all season long...but without an elite defense, it also leads to frustrating loss after frustrating loss. So what do Hawk fans have to look forward to after a lackluster 8-5 season without a win against a ranked opponent? Without making a HUGE splash in the portal (and the portal has already been picked over by the rest of the Big 10/SEC), not much.
Schedule Gets Tougher. Instead of playing Iowa State at Kinnick (where Iowa lost this year), the Hawks to go Jack Trice Stadium to face their returning QB. The Hawks trade the worst two Pac 12 cast offs, Washington & UCLA, for the best two Pac 12 cast offs, #1 ranked Oregon & blue blood USC. Then trade bottom feeder Northwestern for CFP qualifier Indiana. Based on schedule alone, a team equal to this year's Hawks loses 2 additional games next year.
Defense Continues its Decline. Fans were rightfully frustrated with Iowa's veteran defense. They did less with more, wasting more talent/all-Americans than anyone else in the Big 10. Next year, gone are super stars Higgins, Castro, & Harris, as well as long time starters Black, Craig, Jackson, Schulte, and Fisher. Worse yet, the weak links are coming back. Guys like "personal foul" X, "I lost it in the sun" Hall, and "been benched more than I can count" Lee. For the first time in a decade, there's nothing to get excited about on D. The only portal addition the Broyles Award winner and his overpaid assistant Wallace were able to get to plug the graduation holes is a DL who wasn't even honorable mention all conference in the MAC (nor was he one of the top 500 portal prospects this year). Meanwhile, the upper half of the Big 10 have already reloaded with Power 4 transfers from the portal.
Another Year of the Big 10's Worst QB Play. Brandon Sullivan, who couldn't start at lowly Northwestern (or anywhere else in Power 4), is the best Iowa has at QB. Not surprisingly, Sullivan ranked 21st among Big 10 QBs in yards per game. That's downright awful considering there are only 18 teams and Cade McNamera ranked 18th. There's nothing more disheartening than going into a new season with a knowing you have the worst QB in the conference a year after having the worst passing offense in the Big 10. While most fan bases have the hope of a stud gunslinger, the best Hawk fans can hope for is a game manager who can throw for more than 90 yards per game. That kind of product is not going to put butts in seats or points on the scoreboard.
Inevitable Drop Off at RB. Moulton & Patterson played well this year, especially in the bowl game. But when you lose the top back in all of Power 4 football, there will to be some regression. So while the running game will still be solid, it may be a decade or more before Iowa has a run game like it did with Johnson running the ball and making 70 yard gains out of poorly thrown 2 yard screen passes.
The Calvary Isn't Coming With Budmeyr Coaching WRs. Iowa's WR play over the past few years has been well documented. Not just bad but historically bad. Unfortunately, there is ZERO reason to believe the group will improve next year. To fix the position group, Kirk inexplicably installed career failure Jon Budmeyr, a guy who never played the position and sure as hell cannot recruit the position. The only Big 10 WR on Iowa's roster this year bolted midseason because he was in Kirk's inescapable grievance driven dog house. Iowa's next highest paid portal acquisition, Seth Anderson, has had 2 years to rack up just 16 catches & 1 touchdown (in the first quarter of game 1). So surely the staff prioritized WR in the portal and hit it extra hard to at least replace the loss of Kaleb Brown & the disappointing Anderson? Nope, they haven't even had a portal WR on campus. And the high school recruiting at the position? Nonexistent. They signed just 1 kid who had mostly MAC offers. And Iowa's top WR recruit from the year before, Alex Mota, has already been switched to defense, as IowaLaw predicted at the time when questioning WR recruiting.
TEU a Distant Memory But Ultra Conservative Play Calling is Here to Stay. Under Iowa's new OC, the TEs had just 3 catches for 33 yards in the bowl game, and that was more productive than they were in most games this year. So gone are the days of 2 TE sets where multiple TEs have more than 50 yards per game before leaving for the NFL. While shifting away from a TE reliant offense isn't necessarily a bad thing, the Tim Lester offense appears to be no different than the Brian Ferentz offense and the Greg Davis offense utilizing the obscure strategy of running it up the middle on 3rd and 7 instead of trying to win football games.
ANY Reasons for Optimism? It can't be all doom and gloom after an 8 win season, right? Well, most optimism rests on the hopes of landing last minute difference makers from the portal at QB, WR, CB, and OL.
Schedule Gets Tougher. Instead of playing Iowa State at Kinnick (where Iowa lost this year), the Hawks to go Jack Trice Stadium to face their returning QB. The Hawks trade the worst two Pac 12 cast offs, Washington & UCLA, for the best two Pac 12 cast offs, #1 ranked Oregon & blue blood USC. Then trade bottom feeder Northwestern for CFP qualifier Indiana. Based on schedule alone, a team equal to this year's Hawks loses 2 additional games next year.
Defense Continues its Decline. Fans were rightfully frustrated with Iowa's veteran defense. They did less with more, wasting more talent/all-Americans than anyone else in the Big 10. Next year, gone are super stars Higgins, Castro, & Harris, as well as long time starters Black, Craig, Jackson, Schulte, and Fisher. Worse yet, the weak links are coming back. Guys like "personal foul" X, "I lost it in the sun" Hall, and "been benched more than I can count" Lee. For the first time in a decade, there's nothing to get excited about on D. The only portal addition the Broyles Award winner and his overpaid assistant Wallace were able to get to plug the graduation holes is a DL who wasn't even honorable mention all conference in the MAC (nor was he one of the top 500 portal prospects this year). Meanwhile, the upper half of the Big 10 have already reloaded with Power 4 transfers from the portal.
Another Year of the Big 10's Worst QB Play. Brandon Sullivan, who couldn't start at lowly Northwestern (or anywhere else in Power 4), is the best Iowa has at QB. Not surprisingly, Sullivan ranked 21st among Big 10 QBs in yards per game. That's downright awful considering there are only 18 teams and Cade McNamera ranked 18th. There's nothing more disheartening than going into a new season with a knowing you have the worst QB in the conference a year after having the worst passing offense in the Big 10. While most fan bases have the hope of a stud gunslinger, the best Hawk fans can hope for is a game manager who can throw for more than 90 yards per game. That kind of product is not going to put butts in seats or points on the scoreboard.
Inevitable Drop Off at RB. Moulton & Patterson played well this year, especially in the bowl game. But when you lose the top back in all of Power 4 football, there will to be some regression. So while the running game will still be solid, it may be a decade or more before Iowa has a run game like it did with Johnson running the ball and making 70 yard gains out of poorly thrown 2 yard screen passes.
The Calvary Isn't Coming With Budmeyr Coaching WRs. Iowa's WR play over the past few years has been well documented. Not just bad but historically bad. Unfortunately, there is ZERO reason to believe the group will improve next year. To fix the position group, Kirk inexplicably installed career failure Jon Budmeyr, a guy who never played the position and sure as hell cannot recruit the position. The only Big 10 WR on Iowa's roster this year bolted midseason because he was in Kirk's inescapable grievance driven dog house. Iowa's next highest paid portal acquisition, Seth Anderson, has had 2 years to rack up just 16 catches & 1 touchdown (in the first quarter of game 1). So surely the staff prioritized WR in the portal and hit it extra hard to at least replace the loss of Kaleb Brown & the disappointing Anderson? Nope, they haven't even had a portal WR on campus. And the high school recruiting at the position? Nonexistent. They signed just 1 kid who had mostly MAC offers. And Iowa's top WR recruit from the year before, Alex Mota, has already been switched to defense, as IowaLaw predicted at the time when questioning WR recruiting.
TEU a Distant Memory But Ultra Conservative Play Calling is Here to Stay. Under Iowa's new OC, the TEs had just 3 catches for 33 yards in the bowl game, and that was more productive than they were in most games this year. So gone are the days of 2 TE sets where multiple TEs have more than 50 yards per game before leaving for the NFL. While shifting away from a TE reliant offense isn't necessarily a bad thing, the Tim Lester offense appears to be no different than the Brian Ferentz offense and the Greg Davis offense utilizing the obscure strategy of running it up the middle on 3rd and 7 instead of trying to win football games.
ANY Reasons for Optimism? It can't be all doom and gloom after an 8 win season, right? Well, most optimism rests on the hopes of landing last minute difference makers from the portal at QB, WR, CB, and OL.
- The Hawks will have one of the nation's best special teams units. They return studs at KR/PR as well as K and P. Unfortunately, touchdowns, not punting, are winning.
- Moulton could be Iowa's next Tyler Goodson. He averages nearly 5 yards per carry and hits the holes hard. Depending on how he develops, he could be anywhere from good to great next yr.
- Wetjen is electric as a return man. If Lester wants to earn his $1.3M salary next year, he'll finally finally figure out a way to get his most dynamic player involved in the offense. And give the guy a damn scholarship already.
- Vander Zee showed flashes at WR in the nonconference...but dropped more passes than he caught in Big 10 games. Can he improve in the offseason and become a quality WR?
- Hurkett coming back on defense is intriguing. He led the DL in tackles and had 12 TFL. By comparison, AJ Epenesa had 15 TFL in his dominant final season. Maybe Hurkett elevates his game to an all-Big 10 level?
- A QB not currently on the roster will likely be Iowa's starter next year. So there's hope in the unknown. Could it be the kid from SDSU? Does someone at a Top 10 school get beat out in the spring and transfer to Iowa?
- Maybe, just maybe, Kirk realizes he's not cut out for the NIL era and finally hangs it up. If Kirk leaves, the Hawks throw their massive Big 10 war chest of $$$ at an up and coming super star coach who can recruit, manage a clock, and take a few chances in close games.
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