Does anyone remember a year with as many top teams being even on paper?

[MSU158]

I know many are giving PSU the edge, but that is more based on them proving themselves in recent years than the actual hard numbers. If you look at Iowa, tOSU, OkState, PSU and even VTech, on paper, it is hard to differentiate any one team from the 5.

PSU returns Retherford, Nolf and Nickal. That is admittedly big points. However, Suriano, Cortez, Joseph and Cassar have yet to win a Varsity match and Nevills hasn't won at NCAA's. Gulibon and McCutcheon have had significant ups and downs. The potential is undoubtedly there, but ON PAPER, they have a TON to prove.

Iowa has a similar(with less bonus) outlook with Gilman, Clark and Sorenson. Meyer and Brooks are proven enough to offset that difference. They then have similar unprovens(yet admitted studs) in Kemerer and Marinelli. Stoll looked great but is nearly as much a question mark as Nevills due to how most injuries linger at Heavyweight. 141 and 197 are big question marks.

tOSU has Snyder, Tomasello, Martin and BoJo. Again enough top end firepower to match the above. Rodriguez, Hayes and Moore similarly match Freshman question marks while Micah going up a weight leaves it's own question. Ryan is serviceable but not likely a big point scorer and 165 is a big question mark.

OKState has the most proven track record overall at NCAA's, but doesn't have the high end firepower that the top 3 do. Heil leads the way with proven top 5 talent in Collica, Smith, Crutchmer and Boyd. Brock is a true monster talent, but still has to prove he can come back from injury. Piccinnini will benefit from a thin 125 and Rogers should be tough down at his natural weight(165). Weigel made the R12 and 285 appears to be their only weakness. 7 of their returning starters have been R12 or better.

VTech returns 6 AA's in Dance, Chisko, McFadden, Epperly, Haught and Walz. Zavatsky is a Top 10 talent at a super deep weight. Blees is a solid transfer at 157. Mastriani struggled last season but does have solid history of success at 149. Finally, 133 is a bit of a question mark until Dance is confirmed at 125.


Does anyone remember a year where this many teams appear to be in the mix for the NCAA Championship going into the season? If ever there was a year where the winning team's Head Coach would deserve the HCOTY award, this year appears to be the one. I am definitely as excited for this season as I can remember being in some time!

 

[LaxHawk174]

I believe Chishko is wrestling 149 this season, many VT people have said this on the Mat over the course of the off season.

I think you have to include Missouri in this list. With McGhee who was R12 last year. Eierman coming in at 133 who is a stud. Manley who was seeded 5th last year but had a bad knee injury prior to NCAAs. Mayes, Lewis, Miklus and Cox as returning AA's. They certainly have at least as much talent as Virginia Tech in that lineup. It helps that they have one of the bigger locks for an NCAA title anchoring the lineup at 197.

 

[Stanley75]

It's gonna be a party.

 

[1stplacehawk]

I don't consider Blees to be a solid transfer. I don't know if he has had one good collegiate win.

 

[Pennstate1985]

This season will be more about the relative strength of the weakest weight(s) that each team has rather than the firepower. Wrestlers 8-10 in the lineup will win nationals for their team imo. When I use that as the barometer, I see the following:

1a PSU
1b Iowa
3 tOSU
4 OSU
5 VT

 

[24 so far]

This season will be more about the relative strength of the weakest weight(s) that each team has rather than the firepower. Wrestlers 8-10 in the lineup will win nationals for their team imo. When I use that as the barometer, I see the following:

1a PSU
1b Iowa
3 tOSU
4 OSU
5 VT

Have you got a projected lineup for #5 Vermont? They've snuck in under the radar!

 

[rossel 33]

On paper, there appear to be multiple contenders, but realistically, the odds heavily favor PSU imho. Sure, there can be injuries or unexpected incidents which change the lineups, but outside of that, it's PSU's to lose.

Retherford is a likely repeat champ, getting falls or TF's up until the finals where Sorenson could keep it to a draw. He is a nice replacement for Taylor or Ruth as far as point production.

Nolf will be a fairly heavy favorite, with Imar up to 165#. He'll put up plenty of bonus pts too.

Nickal is another bonus pt machine. If he is at 174, I'd rank him as the favorite. If he's up to 184#, it's more of an unknown, but high AA likely, possible finalist.

Though technically "unproven," Suriano, Cortez and Joseph have the pedigree to go pretty far. Good chance at AA's. Nevills was a top 10 p4p and the top Hwt out of HS, but suffered an injury. If he's recovered, count his chances at AA good. Gulibon and McCutch have the talent to AA.

By comparison, Iowa has Gilman and Clark, probably favorites, but I wouldn't count out Tomasello. Sorenson has good shot at finals, but not a lot of bonus pts, and not likely to beat Retherford. Realistically (hope I'm wrong) - I see possible AA's in Kemdawg, Meyer, Brooks and Stoll, but Stoll had a serious injury/surgery, and Meyer and Brooks are somewhat inconsistent.

I'd favor PSU pretty heavily, with Iowa best chance for the upset. tOSU 3rd, and Okla St 4th.

 

[pumpdog20]

IMO, Iowa's chances heavily rely on Kemerer and AM both being in the lineup. Without them both, I don't see it happening.

 

[LaxHawk174]

Would a team title be realistically in reach with only Kemerer in the lineup and Marinelli red shirting? Maybe, but I think it would take a near perfect performance. Some combination of:
Gilman 1st
Clark 1st
Sorensen 2nd
Kemerer 2nd-4th
Meyer 6th-8th
Brooks 2nd-4th
Stoll 4th-6th

 

[1stplacehawk]

Would a team title be realistically in reach with only Kemerer in the lineup and Marinelliphu red shirting? Maybe, but I think it would take a near perfect performance. Some combination of:
Gilman 1st
Clark 1st
Sorensen 2nd
Kemerer 2nd-4th
Meyer 6th-8th
Brooks 2nd-4th
Stoll 4th-6th

If everyone placed like that, yes. The problem is that every team will have a wrestler or two that don't have a great NCAA's. Without Marinelli it will take a nearly flawless performance

 

[slicone]

Would a team title be realistically in reach with only Kemerer in the lineup and Marinelliphu red shirting? Maybe, but I think it would take a near perfect performance. Some combination of:
Gilman 1st
Clark 1st
Sorensen 2nd
Kemerer 2nd-4th
Meyer 6th-8th
Brooks 2nd-4th
Stoll 4th-6th

Some years yes, not this year though, we will need more imo

 

[manmythlegend1]

I know many are giving PSU the edge, but that is more based on them proving themselves in recent years than the actual hard numbers. If you look at Iowa, tOSU, OkState, PSU and even VTech, on paper, it is hard to differentiate any one team from the 5.

PSU returns Retherford, Nolf and Nickal. That is admittedly big points. However, Suriano, Cortez, Joseph and Cassar have yet to win a Varsity match and Nevills hasn't won at NCAA's. Gulibon and McCutcheon have had significant ups and downs. The potential is undoubtedly there, but ON PAPER, they have a TON to prove.

Iowa has a similar(with less bonus) outlook with Gilman, Clark and Sorenson. Meyer and Brooks are proven enough to offset that difference. They then have similar unprovens(yet admitted studs) in Kemerer and Marinelli. Stoll looked great but is nearly as much a question mark as Nevills due to how most injuries linger at Heavyweight. 141 and 197 are big question marks.

tOSU has Snyder, Tomasello, Martin and BoJo. Again enough top end firepower to match the above. Rodriguez, Hayes and Moore similarly match Freshman question marks while Micah going up a weight leaves it's own question. Ryan is serviceable but not likely a big point scorer and 165 is a big question mark.

OKState has the most proven track record overall at NCAA's, but doesn't have the high end firepower that the top 3 do. Heil leads the way with proven top 5 talent in Collica, Smith, Crutchmer and Boyd. Brock is a true monster talent, but still has to prove he can come back from injury. Piccinnini will benefit from a thin 125 and Rogers should be tough down at his natural weight(165). Weigel made the R12 and 285 appears to be their only weakness. 7 of their returning starters have been R12 or better.

VTech returns 6 AA's in Dance, Chisko, McFadden, Epperly, Haught and Walz. Zavatsky is a Top 10 talent at a super deep weight. Blees is a solid transfer at 157. Mastriani struggled last season but does have solid history of success at 149. Finally, 133 is a bit of a question mark until Dance is confirmed at 125.


Does anyone remember a year where this many teams appear to be in the mix for the NCAA Championship going into the season? If ever there was a year where the winning team's Head Coach would deserve the HCOTY award, this year appears to be the one. I am definitely as excited for this season as I can remember being in some time!

This is well written and I agree with 100% of it, this is going to be a fun season

Edit- After reading some of the other posts, I am surprised you think PSU is so stacked. I am a PSU fan and I actually am concerned about HWT, 184 (if bo does not move up), 141 and 165 (Not because I don't think VJoseph is awesome but that weight may be stacked and all it takes is a few bad matchups at Nationals). 197 is way up in the air, Add to this the fact Suriano is a True freshman. I don't see them as prohibitive favorites at all, Although I most certainly do agree that ZAIN, NOLF and BO Bonus make them the favorite by a slim margin.

 

[wasdt21]

if we get the high end of lax's thoughts that would be 5 finalist and if that did not win the title, I would still be very happy.

 

[LaxHawk174]

if we get the high end of lax's thoughts that would be 5 finalist and if that did not win the title, I would still be very happy.

The only 'unknown' of those potential 5 finalists, is Kemerer. We all know how good Brooks is when hes on. I can't wait for Kemerers matchups at 157 with top 10 guys. Based on our Dual schedule (not counting tournaments) he should matchup with Murphy at the Michigan dual, Smith at the Okie state dual, Ryan at the tOSU dual (not top 10 imo but could be a R12-R16 guy), Nolf at PSU, and Berger at Nebraska dual. In addition to the midlands plus the minnesota dual he should be thoroughly battle tested come B1G's and NCAAs.

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

Some years yes, not this year though, we will need more imo

In that best case (complete fantasy) scenario if the Hawks have 7 placers/5 finalists/2 champs they win going away.

 

[93hawkeye]

I am thinking Meyer and Brooks hold the key to our Nats outcome. We need over 30 team points between the two of them. Don't know if that will work out, but it's what we need

 

[Flying_Tiger]

I think that's spot on. Iowa must get better production from Meyer and Brooks to compete for a title. Two AAs is nice however 13 points combined simply won't be enough production from those two weights to put Iowa in contention. Right now, I would put OSU at 1a. They have a very similar team to Penn State as far as a mix of proven wrestlers and highly regarded incoming guys. Nice upside if some of the new starters work out.

 

[mike tognetti]

I think that's spot on. Iowa must get better production from Meyer and Brooks to compete for a title. Two AAs is nice however 13 points combined simply won't be enough production from those two weights to put Iowa in contention. Right now, I would put OSU at 1a. They have a very similar team to Penn State as far as a mix of proven wrestlers and highly regarded incoming guys. Nice upside if some of the new starters work out.

HATE TO DO THIS BUT I'M GIVING YOU A LIKE.

 

[pumpdog20]

I am thinking Meyer and Brooks hold the key to our Nats outcome. We need over 30 team points between the two of them. Don't know if that will work out, but it's what we need

30 points out of Brooks/Meyer, that'll be tough.

 

[whejoe]

I like Iowa's chances if ZR somehow oversleeps and misses weighins on Thursday.....too tired from crushing watermelons.

 

[rossel 33]

In that best case (complete fantasy) scenario if the Hawks have 7 placers/5 finalists/2 champs they win going away.

---

I'd be thrilled with that kind of performance. But they "win going away?"

Suppose PSU also has a best case scenario...

Retherford 1st
Nolf 1st
Nickal 2nd
Suriano, Cortez, Gulibon, Joseph, McCutch, Nevills all ~5-8.

That would be 2 champs, 3 finalists, 9 AA's, and likely more bonus pts.

Would be interesting, and depend on where exactly the AA's place (e.g. 3rd vs 8th)

 

[MSU158]

Everyone has their overall opinions and I like where everyone has gone with them. My point in this post wasn't a who I think will win. I was trying to remain completely objective. Looking at each team's proven talent and weighting that fully, while giving very little weight to the unprovens(even knowing many are very talented), you have roughly 5 teams that are nearly interchangeable. That surprised me. Even Missouri could make the list, but I have a hard time putting them there just because they seem to fizzle out a bit come March.

Admittedly, I am giving the nod to PSU as of now, when opinion is added to the objectivity. Cael has too strong of a recent track record bringing in freshmen AA's(Megaludis, D. Alton, Taylor, Ruth, Retherford, Nolf and Nickal). Still, that is why I think the winning team will be the best coaching job of the season. As someone else mentioned, how the bottom portion of the lineup produces will be paramount to one of these teams winning. If any of the top team's top talent hold serve(I think most will) the team that has the most production from their new guys is going to be the one that wins it all.

Here are my picks for the deciding factors for each team:

PSU: V. Joseph and/or a resurgence from Gulibon or Nevills breaking through. I expect Suriano to be a low AA at a thinned out 125. Cortez is a R12 type guy. How 184 shakes out could also be the deciding factor, but I think it comes down to VJo. If he makes Top 5 they will score too many points for any other team to overcome.

Iowa: Marinelli. Pretty simple to see(although a fully healthy Stoll could make it less necessary). Gilman, Clark and Sorenson are about as much Finalist locks as is reasonable at the DI level. Meyer and Brooks look to be solid AA's. Kemerer should produce similar to Suriano. Even the most ardent fan can't realistically expect much from 141 and 197 at this point. Each time I look at this team I see it coming down to Alex. Without him on the mat, and inevitably on the podium, I see them falling a bit short.

tOSU: M. Jordan or Hayes. They will get their points from NaTo, BoJo, Martin and Snyder. Rodgriguez can't be expected to AA at this point. Ryan could be the difference if the score is within 3. Moore could/should help put them into contention by sneaking onto the podium while 165 is a big ? However, they absolutely need Jordan or Hayes(maybe both) to be mid to high AA's to have a realistic chance.

OkState: Brock. This team is chalk full of mid-level AA's. Heil should be in the Finals again with Collica, Smith, Rogers, Crutchmer and Boyd all finishing in the 3-7 range. Even 197(they have 3 very comparable guys here) could sneak onto the podium. That is why Brock is huge. If he can prove to be as dynamic as he was prior to injury last season, he could be a bonus point machine and inevitably be wrestling on Saturday night.

VTech: Dance. This team should AA at 141/149(depending on where Chisko is), 165,174,184,197 and 285. Every one of their AA's have a solid shot to be Top5. If Dance can make the Finals, which I don't see why not, he could be the difference!

 

[JohnBasedow]

How is Minnesota looking?

 

[rossel 33]

How is Minnesota looking?

right now? fairly sedate

 

[MSU158]

I would think PBS should be one of the best to answer this question(if willing). I have no attachment close to the program and with all the recent strife, I am not sure who will still be on the team when the time comes. Still, here is my assessment based on the current roster(without factoring any of the lingering legal issues).

125:Lizak-Had a very solid improvement trajectory. If that continued,without legal setbacks, he could sneak onto the podium.
133:Brancale-This guy is dangerous(ask Gilman) but very inconsistent. Being a Senior, I see him qualifying but 1-2 is about it.
141:Thorn-Being a freshman last season caught up to him at the end of the year. Expect a podium finish this season.
149:Stroker-Hard to gauge a freshman's first season, but he is really good. A low podium finish is possible.
157:Kingsley/Early-Kingsley is a Senior that has had a very solid year. Early was a big time recruit. I haven't heard anything to know who will get the nod. 1-2 or 2-2 at NCAA's is likely at this weight as of now.
165:This weight looks wide open so maybe one of the 2 at 157 end up here.
174:Wantzek-Another 1-2 or 2-2 type guy
184:C. Pfarr-Had a very rough season wrestling a BRUTAL schedule. Doubtful any NCAA points come from this weight.
197:B. Pfarr-Likely Finalist. Definitely a Top4 guy.
285:Kroells- A 2X AA, makes it 3X this season.

I see 3 solid AA's in Thorn, B. Pfarr and Kroells with a chance at 3 more with Lizak, Stroker and Early. This should be enough to sneak into 9th or 10th. They are definitely a full couple steps behind the Top5. Again, this is without factoring the effects the "Legal Mess" has/will cause(d).

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

All I want PBS to clarify is if his son is going 157 or 165 and msu do you think short is out of the equation with stroker at 149?

 

[PapaBearSLIM]

All I want PBS to clarify is if his son is going 157 or 165 and msu do you think short is out of the equation with stroker at 149?

Certified at 157

 

[HawkTalk3]

All I want PBS to clarify is if his son is going 157 or 165 and msu do you think short is out of the equation with stroker at 149?

Stroker at 149, Short at 157, PBS knows more than I do about his own kid, but Early/Kinglsey are supposed to challenge at 165 from what I was told.

 

[SetonHallPirate]

What about 2010-2011, when there were, legitimately, six or seven teams thought to be ready to vie for a title, and Penn State wasn't one of them!

 

[Azchief32]

Stroker at 149, Short at 157, PBS knows more than I do about his own kid, but Early/Kinglsey are supposed to challenge at 165 from what I was told.

Based on history, Early gets whatever weight he wants or what's best for the team. I'd go 157 given the choice.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Everyone has their overall opinions and I like where everyone has gone with them. My point in this post wasn't a who I think will win. I was trying to remain completely subjective. Looking at each team's proven talent and weighting that fully, while giving very little weight to the unprovens(even knowing many are very talented), you have roughly 5 teams that are nearly interchangeable. That surprised me. Even Missouri could make the list, but I have a hard time putting them there just because they seem to fizzle out a bit come March.

Admittedly, I am giving the nod to PSU as of now, when opinion is added to the subjectivity. Cael has too strong of a recent track record bringing in freshmen AA's(Megaludis, D. Alton, Taylor, Ruth, Retherford, Nolf and Nickal). Still, that is why I think the winning team will be the best coaching job of the season. As someone else mentioned, how the bottom portion of the lineup produces will be paramount to one of these teams winning. If any of the top team's top talent hold serve(I think most will) the team that has the most production from their new guys is going to be the one that wins it all.

Here are my picks for the deciding factors for each team:

PSU: V. Joseph and/or a resurgence from Gulibon or Nevills breaking through. I expect Suriano to be a low AA at a thinned out 125. Cortez is a R12 type guy. How 184 shakes out could also be the deciding factor, but I think it comes down to VJo. If he makes Top 5 they will score too many points for any other team to overcome.

Iowa: Marinelli. Pretty simple to see(although a fully healthy Stoll could make it less necessary). Gilman, Clark and Sorenson are about as much Finalist locks as is reasonable at the DI level. Meyer and Brooks look to be solid AA's. Kemerer should produce similar to Suriano. Even the most ardent fan can't realistically expect much from 141 and 197 at this point. Each time I look at this team I see it coming down to Alex. Without him on the mat, and inevitably on the podium, I see them falling a bit short.

tOSU: M. Jordan or Hayes. They will get their points from NaTo, BoJo, Martin and Snyder. Rodgriguez can't be expected to AA at this point. Ryan could be the difference if the score is within 3. Moore could/should help put them into contention by sneaking onto the podium while 165 is a big ? However, they absolutely need Jordan or Hayes(maybe both) to be mid to high AA's to have a realistic chance.

OkState: Brock. This team is chalk full of mid-level AA's. Heil should be in the Finals again with Collica, Smith, Rogers, Crutchmer and Boyd all finishing in the 3-7 range. Even 197(they have 3 very comparable guys here) could sneak onto the podium. That is why Brock is huge. If he can prove to be as dynamic as he was prior to injury last season, he could be a bonus point machine and inevitably be wrestling on Saturday night.

VTech: Dance. This team should AA at 141/149(depending on where Chisko is), 165,174,184,197 and 285. Every one of their AA's have a solid shot to be Top5. If Dance can make the Finals, which I don't see why not, he could be the difference!

I'm guessing you don't understand the meaning of "subjective" and "subjectivity".

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

Stroker at 149, Short at 157, PBS knows more than I do about his own kid, but Early/Kinglsey are supposed to challenge at 165 from what I was told.

His dad's answer leads me to believe he's trying for 157 but certified and acting on it are 2 different things

 

[Stanley75]

I'm guessing you don't understand the meaning of "subjective" and "subjectivity".

I do... I do... can I give the answer?

 

[MSU158]

I'm guessing you don't understand the meaning of "subjective" and "subjectivity".

I am guessing that you are very good at being a dick just to be dickish?

I admittedly put subjective where objective should have been. Shame on me. However, I especially love how that is the one thing you focused on out of all that was written. It's people like you that make everything worth while..................

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

I am guessing that you are very good at being a dick just to be dickish?

I admittedly put subjective where objective should have been. Shame on me. However, I especially love how that is the one thing you focused on out of all that was written. It's people like you that make everything worth while..................

Sorry, and nothing personal, but I found the errors rather humorous. "I am trying to remain completely subjective" and "... when opinion is added to the subjectivity." LOL.

It's funny, particularly within a long post that intends to provide a relatively deep, thorough analysis. The fact that you edited the post but only corrected one of the errors just makes it better.

 

[MSU158]

Wow. Just wow. Thanks for being so helpful. Shame on me for having an admitted tendency to mix up subjective and objective. I do like how perfect so many in this community can be to nitpick word usage when the intent was obvious. Thanks again!

I will now go back and look for where I used subjectivity incorrectly to fix that as well. Good thing I have you to be there for me.

 

[McCulloughd]

Wow. Just wow. Thanks for being so helpful. Shame on me for having an admitted tendency to mix up subjective and objective. I do like how perfect so many in this community can be to nitpick word usage when the intent was obvious. Thanks again!

I will now go back and look for where I used subjectivity incorrectly to fix that as well. Good thing I have you to be there for me.

Your goal is to sooner or later piss posters off. What a dick.

 

[MSU158]

Your goal is to sooner or later piss posters off. What a dick.

Seriously? That is what you got from that exchange? Someone critiques my using a word incorrectly and my intent is to piss people off? Methinks your dislike for me has clouded your judgement a bit.....

 

[jerot]

Sorry, and nothing personal, but I found the errors rather humorous. "I am trying to remain completely subjective" and "... when opinion is added to the subjectivity." LOL.

It's funny, particularly within a long post that intends to provide a relatively deep, thorough analysis. The fact that you edited the post but only corrected one of the errors just makes it better.

I suspect you have a heavy lisp.

 

[McCulloughd]

Seriously? That is what you got from that exchange? Someone critiques my using a word incorrectly and my intent is to piss people off? Methinks your dislike for me has clouded your judgement a bit.....