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Donald Trump Suffers Setback In Three Major Polls After His Guilty Verdict

cigaretteman

HR King
May 29, 2001
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Donald Trump has suffered a significant decline in the polls 48 hours after receiving a guilty verdict in his New York hush money trial.

Since the trial concluded, Trump's lead counsel, Todd Blanche, has disclosed that they plan to appeal the judgment "as soon as we can," amid speculations he may not be able to vote for himself because of the felony charge.

With the historic guilty verdict, Donald Trump became the first U.S. ex-president to be convicted of a felony crime, seemingly leaving his 2024 hopes hanging on a thread.

Donald Trump Takes Significant Hit At The Polls Due To Guilty Verdict​


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Trump suffered a stunning series of setbacks in three separate polls within the space of 48 hours after he was declared guilty in his New York hush money trial.

The former president had been on trial for falsifying business records to hide a $130k hush money payment made to former adult film star Stormy Daniels.

According to Newsweek, a YouGov poll showed a massive decline in his approval ratings. Fifty percent of the U.S. adults surveyed said he was guilty, while 30 percent said he wasn't. Another 19 percent said they were unsure, with the poll posing a margin error of plus or minus 2.3 percent.

When analyzed further into party factions, 15 percent of Republicans think he is guilty while 64 percent do not, 48 percent of independents believe he is guilty while 25 percent do not, and 86 percent of Democrats believe he is guilty while 5 percent do not.

A total of 831 Republicans, 1,114 independents, and 1,113 Democrats were surveyed, as the margin of error of the subgroups remained unclear.

More Poll Declines For The Ex-President​


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According to the news outlet, a Morning Consult poll carried out on Friday further suggested a significant shift in public opinion: 54 percent of registered voters approve of the jury's verdict, while 39 percent disapprove.

Party lines evaluation showed that 18 percent of Republicans approve of the verdict while 74 percent disapprove, 52 percent of independents approve while 33 percent disapprove, and 88 percent of Democrats approve while 8 percent do not.

A total of 2,220 registered voters were tapped for the poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent. The data size and error margin of the subsamples remain unclear.

Fifty-one (51) percent of the 2,220 people polled said the presumptive Republican party candidate should end his presidential campaign, while 43 percent said he should not.


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Trump, however, saw favorable numbers among the majority of the Republicans sampled, as 79 percent were against him quitting his campaign, while 15 percent thought he should quit.

In another poll conducted between Thursday and Friday by Reuters/Ipsos, 5 percent of Republicans and 21 percent of Independents noted that they were less likely to vote for Trump due to his guilty verdict.

On the other hand, 30 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of Independents said the jury's decision made them more likely to vote for the ex-president.

 
1. National polls, and favorable/unfavorable polls, are pretty irrelevant to the election as a general matter, particularly this far out. The only thing to watch is battlegrounds.
2. It is hardly surprising that immediate-reaction polls such as these would reflect these shifts, which is even more reason to doubt both their utility and motivation. While I too suspect that the net impact of the verdicts on trump will be negative, let's see what polls with survey dates a week or two out show.
3. To be clear, w/r/t the details of the polls as described in the article, think for just a moment about how mind boggling it is that a felony conviction(s) doesn't drive the numbers to zero. It's like we're Italy or something.
 
Which is precisely where these poll numbers hit the hardest.
Q: is that just your conjecture, or have you seen crosstabs? (I have not found any, nor have i seen any battleground numbers from post conviction surveys)
 
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