Clemson takes lead in Playoff Predictor
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/118948/clemson-takes-lead-in-playoff-predictor
Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Predictor will use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and human logic (i.e. the eye test) to determine which teams are still alive in the chase for the College Football Playoff. Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, which look at a team’s body of work through that point in the season, the Playoff Predictor is intended to project which teams will be there when it matters -- when the final rankings are announced.
The Playoff Predictor will factor in a team’s chance to win its conference and finish with fewer than two losses, as well as schedule strength.
After Week 8, the predictor is finally beginning to take shape with four teams separating themselves from the pack.
Front Four
1. Clemson Tigers
Last Week: 3
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 76 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 60 percent
After handing the Miami Hurricanes their largest loss in school history, Clemson is 7-0 and has the best chance of any Power 5 school to win its conference with fewer than two losses. Unlike other schools on this list, Clemson does not have a glaring weakness; the Tigers are the only FBS team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Looking ahead, FPI projects that the Tigers have at least a 72 percent chance to win in each of their remaining games and a 32 percent chance to enter bowls undefeated. Some may question Clemson’s schedule, but because the Tigers faced Notre Dame in nonconference play, FPI projects their overall schedule is tougher than those of Ohio State, Michigan State, TCU and Baylor.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Last Week: 2
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 80 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 54 percent
In its 49-7 rout of Rutgers, Ohio State returned to the dominant run game that carried it a year ago. J.T. Barrett was responsible for five touchdowns as Ohio State posted its highest offensive efficiency rating (96.7 out of 100) since Week 1. Despite their early struggles, the Buckeyes are beginning to look like the team that rolled through the College Football Playoff last year. They still have some tough tests ahead, but FPI projects that Ohio State has the best chance of any Power 5 school to enter bowls undefeated.
3. Baylor Bears
Last Week: 1
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 60 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 42 percent
Baylor beat Iowa State 45-27 to remain undefeated, but the Bears may have lost quarterback Seth Russell, who fractured a bone in his neck, for an extended period of time. Even without Russell, Baylor remains in the top four of the Playoff Predictor for a few reasons. First, Baylor has succeeded with a number of quarterbacks under Art Briles (all four starters since 2011 rank in the top 12 in Total QBR), and backup Jarrett Stidham appears to have the tools to fill in admirably. Second, Baylor’s offense rarely gets credit for its rushing efficiency, but the Bears’ running backs are among the best in the country in nearly every statistical category. Baylor has the week off and then travels to Kansas State on Nov. 5, so there is time to hone the offense before three straight games against ranked opponents.
4. LSU Tigers
Last Week: 4
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 35 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 23 percent
LSU took care of business against Brandon Doughty and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Saturday. Next up, Alabama on Nov. 7 in a game with playoff implications. LSU remains the only SEC team without a loss, and despite road games against Alabama and Ole Miss, the Tigers are the FPI favorite to win the SEC West. The Playoff Predictor does not see the committee leaving out a zero- or one-loss SEC champion, and because LSU is the most likely team to accomplish that feat, the Tigers remain in the top four.
Not Far Behind
The six teams below are best positioned to move into the top four given their team strength, schedule and chance to win remain unbeaten.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
Last Week: 5
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 47 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 34 percent
After an off week, TCU remains at No. 5 in the Playoff Predictor. Like many teams near the top of this list, TCU controls its destiny with the majority of its season-defining games in the final few weeks of the season. Before looking ahead to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Baylor, though, TCU must focus on its matchup with West Virginia on Thursday night. The Mountaineers nearly knocked off the Horned Frogs last year, and they have a defense that could slow TCU’s efficient offense.
6. Stanford Cardinal
Last Week: 7
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 16 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 54 percent
Could Stanford be this year’s Ohio State? After a disappointing early loss, the Cardinal are rolling through their conference schedule with an average margin of victory of 21 points per game in Pac-12 play. FPI gives the Cardinal a 54 percent chance to win the Pac-12, and if they beat Notre Dame on Nov. 28 (59 percent likely), they would be in the thick of the playoff conversation.
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 19 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 19 percent
Alabama needed a late defensive stand to hold off Tennessee and remain in the playoff discussion. As long as the Tide continue to win, however, they will remain in the playoff discussion because of their resume. Alabama already has three wins against AP Top 25 opponents, tied for the most in the nation, and can add to that total in their next two games against LSU and Mississippi State. Last season, Alabama lost to Ole Miss by six points and made the playoff. After losing to the Rebels by the same margin in 2015, the Tide’s season is beginning to look eerily similar to last year’s.
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/118948/clemson-takes-lead-in-playoff-predictor
Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Predictor will use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and human logic (i.e. the eye test) to determine which teams are still alive in the chase for the College Football Playoff. Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, which look at a team’s body of work through that point in the season, the Playoff Predictor is intended to project which teams will be there when it matters -- when the final rankings are announced.
The Playoff Predictor will factor in a team’s chance to win its conference and finish with fewer than two losses, as well as schedule strength.
After Week 8, the predictor is finally beginning to take shape with four teams separating themselves from the pack.
Front Four
1. Clemson Tigers
Last Week: 3
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 76 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 60 percent
After handing the Miami Hurricanes their largest loss in school history, Clemson is 7-0 and has the best chance of any Power 5 school to win its conference with fewer than two losses. Unlike other schools on this list, Clemson does not have a glaring weakness; the Tigers are the only FBS team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Looking ahead, FPI projects that the Tigers have at least a 72 percent chance to win in each of their remaining games and a 32 percent chance to enter bowls undefeated. Some may question Clemson’s schedule, but because the Tigers faced Notre Dame in nonconference play, FPI projects their overall schedule is tougher than those of Ohio State, Michigan State, TCU and Baylor.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Last Week: 2
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 80 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 54 percent
In its 49-7 rout of Rutgers, Ohio State returned to the dominant run game that carried it a year ago. J.T. Barrett was responsible for five touchdowns as Ohio State posted its highest offensive efficiency rating (96.7 out of 100) since Week 1. Despite their early struggles, the Buckeyes are beginning to look like the team that rolled through the College Football Playoff last year. They still have some tough tests ahead, but FPI projects that Ohio State has the best chance of any Power 5 school to enter bowls undefeated.
3. Baylor Bears
Last Week: 1
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 60 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 42 percent
Baylor beat Iowa State 45-27 to remain undefeated, but the Bears may have lost quarterback Seth Russell, who fractured a bone in his neck, for an extended period of time. Even without Russell, Baylor remains in the top four of the Playoff Predictor for a few reasons. First, Baylor has succeeded with a number of quarterbacks under Art Briles (all four starters since 2011 rank in the top 12 in Total QBR), and backup Jarrett Stidham appears to have the tools to fill in admirably. Second, Baylor’s offense rarely gets credit for its rushing efficiency, but the Bears’ running backs are among the best in the country in nearly every statistical category. Baylor has the week off and then travels to Kansas State on Nov. 5, so there is time to hone the offense before three straight games against ranked opponents.
4. LSU Tigers
Last Week: 4
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 35 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 23 percent
LSU took care of business against Brandon Doughty and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers on Saturday. Next up, Alabama on Nov. 7 in a game with playoff implications. LSU remains the only SEC team without a loss, and despite road games against Alabama and Ole Miss, the Tigers are the FPI favorite to win the SEC West. The Playoff Predictor does not see the committee leaving out a zero- or one-loss SEC champion, and because LSU is the most likely team to accomplish that feat, the Tigers remain in the top four.
Not Far Behind
The six teams below are best positioned to move into the top four given their team strength, schedule and chance to win remain unbeaten.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
Last Week: 5
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 47 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 34 percent
After an off week, TCU remains at No. 5 in the Playoff Predictor. Like many teams near the top of this list, TCU controls its destiny with the majority of its season-defining games in the final few weeks of the season. Before looking ahead to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Baylor, though, TCU must focus on its matchup with West Virginia on Thursday night. The Mountaineers nearly knocked off the Horned Frogs last year, and they have a defense that could slow TCU’s efficient offense.
6. Stanford Cardinal
Last Week: 7
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 16 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 54 percent
Could Stanford be this year’s Ohio State? After a disappointing early loss, the Cardinal are rolling through their conference schedule with an average margin of victory of 21 points per game in Pac-12 play. FPI gives the Cardinal a 54 percent chance to win the Pac-12, and if they beat Notre Dame on Nov. 28 (59 percent likely), they would be in the thick of the playoff conversation.
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
FPI's chance of 1 or fewer losses: 19 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 19 percent
Alabama needed a late defensive stand to hold off Tennessee and remain in the playoff discussion. As long as the Tide continue to win, however, they will remain in the playoff discussion because of their resume. Alabama already has three wins against AP Top 25 opponents, tied for the most in the nation, and can add to that total in their next two games against LSU and Mississippi State. Last season, Alabama lost to Ole Miss by six points and made the playoff. After losing to the Rebels by the same margin in 2015, the Tide’s season is beginning to look eerily similar to last year’s.
