ADVERTISEMENT

Fear mongering

It is extremely shallow - and then you spew it out rather than taking time to think it through.

The only enforcement Congress has is impeachment and even with that they would have to get some entity to enforce it. There's a serious question whether that could happen given the insulation Trump has been allowed to build.
Riley, I am honestly not trying to come off as spewing anything. I simply like to get others thoughts to some of the things that come to mind. If I learn something, that is a positive. Time is not always on my side within a day when it comes to posting on here.
 
Riley, I am honestly not trying to come off as spewing anything. I simply like to get others thoughts to some of the things that come to mind. If I learn something, that is a positive. Time is not always on my side within a day when it comes to posting on here.
No you don't. You spew things out as fact that aren't. If you want thoughts you ask questions.

You're as disingenuous as you are ignorant.
 
If we get to 5%-6% unemployment by mid summer.....I am not sure what affect that will have. There are estimates that the loan rates will tumble, as the Fed will be forced to do something. I have many lenders that I deal with and they are looking for not only a HELOC boom, but a refi boom if the rates go that low.
The problem is if the unemployment train/lower demand spiral start. It’s awfully difficult to correct. A few months of it. Can quickly slide into years.
 
What is wrong with what was posted? It comes from simple AI queries? I am not aware of those having a bias.

Ok, off to finish watching this game.
It says very clearly that historic lows in unemployment are an indication of a labor shortage. Yet you try to spin it as though that is questionable.

You made really stupid claims in your posts.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bcherod
The problem is if the unemployment train/lower demand spiral start. It’s awfully difficult to correct. A few months of it. Can quickly slide into years.
Agreed....I am hoping that the other outcome is what we see.
 
It says very clearly that historic lows in unemployment are an indication of a labor shortage. Yet you try to spin it as though that is questionable.

You made really stupid claims in your posts.
You ignored the first sentance as if there was only ONE way to view it.

"Low unemployment rate does not idicate there is a shortage of labor, but historically low unemployment rates can be a signal of a labor shortage, depending on the broader context."

It CAN be a signal.......but doesn't mean there is a shortage. That is all I said.

Goodness.
 
Agreed....I am hoping that the other outcome is what we see.
Hope is not a strategy. I hope the EU decides to not respond with serious tariffs on American services. They could strike at Silicone Valley quickly. America has a giant service surplus. That’s where the EU can strike back.
Right now the bully has backed a lot of politicians into a corner. Don’t want to come back too soft. Because it’s a quick way to get elections called against them. Don’t want to strike too hard because then it’s the nuclear winter.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bcherod
Please show me where we had a labor shortage during Trumps last year in office (before the pandemic hit). In January 202: The unemployment rate was at a historically low 3.6%. There simply was not a shortage of labor under Trump, before Biden opened up the borders.

I was not trying to trigger you by pointing out what you said. Am I not allowed to point that out? I get that all eyes are on the stockmarket. And, yes I know it is scary. When inflation hit 9% after Biden put out his spending bill, I was questioning it. But, I am sure on the flip side you were defending him......would that be correct?

We are days into this. Biden kept saying give it time for his spending bill to work. Lets give this some time. We are the largest economy in the world. Everyone know this. We will get through this and I believe it will be better. And, as was said last night, if it doesn't you and the Dems will be very happy before the end of this summer as it will be clear that the Dems will be on their way to full control in the future.
Nebraska's 10 year average unemployment rate is 3.1%. This goes way beyond COVID. We have mismanaged immigration long before Trump took office. The Farm Bureau estimates over 40% of out farm workers are undocumented.

My employer gave up tens of millions in sales during COVID and ended multiple product lines. 1/3 of our product was transfer for Italy, that was one of the first to go. Korea was next. We had a healthy export business, most of it was abandoned.
 
Why would the Fed lower rates?

this. the fed lowering rates because of self inflicted economic pain while inflation is still high makes little sense. if it happens, my guess it will be because of political pressure or some bs EO where Trump expands his government overreach. i still don’t think it happens though
 
GFY. You have basically admitted you don't know shit yet you continue to throw out misinformation as if it is true. On top of that you lie and welch on bets. Either STFU or take your flogging. Your choice.
Riley, I have not admitted anything of the sort. I have not "thrown out" any misinformation. I have tried to get you past your obviously out of control anger issues by being civil. You are not in high school anymore. LOL.

I will not STFU, as I can come on here anytime I like and still converse with those that want good discourse. I guess if that upsets you so be it.

Have a GREAT day!!!
 
Hope is not a strategy. I hope the EU decides to not respond with serious tariffs on American services. They could strike at Silicone Valley quickly. America has a giant service surplus. That’s where the EU can strike back.
Right now the bully has backed a lot of politicians into a corner. Don’t want to come back too soft. Because it’s a quick way to get elections called against them. Don’t want to strike too hard because then it’s the nuclear winter.
True, but I can have hope in the strategy that is being taken.

I do wonder how different it would look if the Dems were united in also asking these other countries to drop their original, already in place tariffs. As it is, they are all basically telling the other countries, "We got this, don't remove any tariffs, we will get it back to where it was, and you can keep your original tariffs on us, while we get these removed."
 
True, but I can have hope in the strategy that is being taken.

I do wonder how different it would look if the Dems were united in also asking these other countries to drop their original, already in place tariffs. As it is, they are all basically telling the other countries, "We got this, don't remove any tariffs, we will get it back to where it was, and you can keep your original tariffs on us, while we get these removed."
The already in place tariffs collectively aren’t anywhere near what the administration is charging. How can the Dems even ask for what is relatively peanuts. Most of the figures I’ve seen have been around 3 to 4 %.
The strategy makes no sense. If Trump truly wanted to be reciprocal. The Administration would have done the math. Instead of pulling numbers out of their ass.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RileyHawk
Nebraska's 10 year average unemployment rate is 3.1%. This goes way beyond COVID. We have mismanaged immigration long before Trump took office. The Farm Bureau estimates over 40% of out farm workers are undocumented.

My employer gave up tens of millions in sales during COVID and ended multiple product lines. 1/3 of our product was transfer for Italy, that was one of the first to go. Korea was next. We had a healthy export business, most of it was abandoned.
I get that we had a shortage during COVID......just like what your company experienced during it.

But, prior to COVID and during Trumps first term, I never heard anything about a labor shortage. I also agree that a lot of our farm workers are undocumented. Those jobs were filled prior to covid. People think Trump never let workers from other counties in to work Ag. Here is what I found,

H-2A Worker Visa Program Growth During Trumps first term:
  • 2017: Approximately 200,000 H-2A visas were issued.
  • 2020: The number of H-2A visas increased to about 275,000, marking a significant rise during this period
Also, don't you think Ag is moving to more automation to replace these folks? And, how much were these people making. I hate that we think it is ok to bring these folks up just so we can exploit their cheap labor. This is why the southern states wanted to keep slaves for their crops.
 
The already in place tariffs collectively aren’t anywhere near what the administration is charging. How can the Dems even ask for what is relatively peanuts. Most of the figures I’ve seen have been around 3 to 4 %.
The strategy makes no sense. If Trump truly wanted to be reciprocal. The Administration would have done the math. Instead of pulling numbers out of their ass.
What do you think the actual tariff number was with China and the EU? And, if these tariffs that they all had on us were peanuts....why even have them in place against us to begin with?

Thanks for the convo....off to a work meeting. Have a GREAT day!
 
I get that we had a shortage during COVID......just like what your company experienced during it.

But, prior to COVID and during Trumps first term, I never heard anything about a labor shortage. I also agree that a lot of our farm workers are undocumented. Those jobs were filled prior to covid. People think Trump never let workers from other counties in to work Ag. Here is what I found,

H-2A Worker Visa Program Growth During Trumps first term:
  • 2017: Approximately 200,000 H-2A visas were issued.
  • 2020: The number of H-2A visas increased to about 275,000, marking a significant rise during this period
Also, don't you think Ag is moving to more automation to replace these folks? And, how much were these people making. I hate that we think it is ok to bring these folks up just so we can exploit their cheap labor. This is why the southern states wanted to keep slaves for their crops.
Some things you can not automate. Big ag has automated as much as it can. At some point you need human labor. Unfortunately Americans don’t want these labor intensive jobs.
 
What do you think the actual tariff number was with China and the EU? And, if these tariffs that they all had on us were peanuts....why even have them in place against us to begin with?

Thanks for the convo....off to a work meeting. Have a GREAT day!
The trade weighted average I’ve seen in both EU and China was between 3 to 5%.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hawkman34
What do you think the actual tariff number was with China and the EU? And, if these tariffs that they all had on us were peanuts....why even have them in place against us to begin with?

Thanks for the convo....off to a work meeting. Have a GREAT day!
To protect small businesses. Some communities actually care about small guy. Unlike the US. The EU doesn’t want to look like a bunch of mini malls.
They don’t let in our foods because of how unhealthy it is.
Cultures simply have different values.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bcherod

Here is what I have heard and seen. I know Trump wants to force their hand to stimulate lending and housing.

Market Turmoil & Financial Stability

  • The stock market is crashing (e.g., S&P 500 down ~14% in 3 days).
  • Lowering rates can soothe investor nerves, stabilize financial markets, and help prevent a credit crunch.
  • It sends a signal that the Fed is ready to support the economy in turbulent times.
The Fed is independent. They aren’t there to soothe nerves due to a crazy old man tanking the markets. How would lowering rates soothe inflation?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gimmered
Thanks.

1) If I am reading this right, the issue came because the pandemic caused cause many to leave the workforce and thus, not having the extra workers on our soil to replaced them put pressure on the labor market. I can see this being the case. But, the point is still acurate that prior to the pandemic and during Trump's first term, the unemployment rate was very low. So, I would say...Yes, the pandemic resulted in changes to the workforce that might have been helped with the additional entrance of migrants into the country. But, if the pandemioc had not happened, we would not be talking abouit a labor shortage.....at least that is how it looks to me.

2) Again, I was not trying to trigger you. And, I did not question that this person had been fired, only that he had not been jailed as had been said. Adn, I agree...Trump will fire ANYONE who does not get on board with his policies.

3) When Biden did his spending bill...many, many people told him it was a mistake. Many economist told him it would cause a big spike in inflation. And, he did it anyway. Then Yellen comes out and says that inflation is transitory. We all new that was wrong.....and then later on, she and Biden admitted it. Now, I am in no way cheering this whole thing. It is a huge gamble. You ask, how much time? We are down 19% in the S&P 500. For context, under Biden in 2022, the S&P 500 fell 19.4%, marking its largest calendar-year decline since 2008. (of course it now appears Trump will beat this), The Nasdaq Composite dropped 33%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 9%. I think we need to give this 60 days at least. If this doesn't work, the Dems will take total control and get the chance again to fix things. I will say this, niether party has done a good job up to this point. I am a fiscal conservative. And, we are the strongest and most important economy in the world......by a long shot. We will make it through even if Trump fails. And, if you look at my posting history you will see that I think one of the BEST Presidents in my lifetime was Clinton

4) I agree, innocent people are getting cuaght in the crossfire of this movement. And, if you look at my posting history, you will see that I want those folks who came in, have no criminal history, have a job, are not stressing our social safety programs...to be allowed to stay and become citizens. My nephew married a gal who came across 2 years ago. She has a job (Being paid off the books), is an amazing gairl and has no criminal history whatever. She is a positive for this country.

5) I can totally agree with this.
1. This issue was already there and already present in the workforce when Biden took office. The effects continued to take effect. No different than now. We will have a labor shortage in those sectors that utilize immigrant workers in 12-18 months.

2. I never said he had been jailed. Here is what I posted

"Destroy investor confindence, fire primarily democratic or any other individual within government that opposes his position. You saw yesterday where he fired the lawyer that said the US had no valid answer for deporting a US citizen to south America and he is now imprisoned." - The imprisonment refers to the US citizen and if you read any article that I posted about it you would have understood the reference.

3. Spending bills can be mistakes. Also admit there were logistical issues caused by Covid, and yes much of the inflation was transitory as it was quickly gone. With some remnants that are holding on, but that I would say would likely pop up into the system anyways. There was also an issue where profits and the economy were overinflated similar to now so valuations were too high. Go look at my posts back then, I said we were massively overvalued.

So you are equating a natural pull back, possible policy mistake to a massive policy mistake that is pushing away Trading partners, disrupting logistical chains, effectively taxing consumers, and by most accounts - most business owners have already said has put us in a recession and has the potential to morph into a worldwide depression. (Joe's never put us in a recession). Investor confidence is gone.

4. Then why isn't the government trying to get these people back and why are they being used as pawns.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: RileyHawk
Riley, I have not admitted anything of the sort. I have not "thrown out" any misinformation. I have tried to get you past your obviously out of control anger issues by being civil. You are not in high school anymore. LOL.

I will not STFU, as I can come on here anytime I like and still converse with those that want good discourse. I guess if that upsets you so be it.

Have a GREAT day!!!
You did. You have, consistently. You're disingenuous, at best.

Only because you're a liar and welch on bets.
 
True, but I can have hope in the strategy that is being taken.

I do wonder how different it would look if the Dems were united in also asking these other countries to drop their original, already in place tariffs. As it is, they are all basically telling the other countries, "We got this, don't remove any tariffs, we will get it back to where it was, and you can keep your original tariffs on us, while we get these removed."
This is the type of bullshit you throw out there.
 
I get that we had a shortage during COVID......just like what your company experienced during it.

But, prior to COVID and during Trumps first term, I never heard anything about a labor shortage. I also agree that a lot of our farm workers are undocumented. Those jobs were filled prior to covid. People think Trump never let workers from other counties in to work Ag. Here is what I found,

H-2A Worker Visa Program Growth During Trumps first term:
  • 2017: Approximately 200,000 H-2A visas were issued.
  • 2020: The number of H-2A visas increased to about 275,000, marking a significant rise during this period
Also, don't you think Ag is moving to more automation to replace these folks? And, how much were these people making. I hate that we think it is ok to bring these folks up just so we can exploit their cheap labor. This is why the southern states wanted to keep slaves for their crops.
You may never had heard about it, but I have lived with it for many years. 4% unemployment used to be considered full employment. We have dealt with 2.1%. Our good ole Red states have relied on undocumented workers for as long as I can remember. We have had out major packing plants shut down across the state when ICE showed up.
Yesterday I was going through a facebook post from local beef producers about the lack of dairies in the area. The same people that were complaining were also the same people pushing for deportation.
 
You may never had heard about it, but I have lived with it for many years. 4% unemployment used to be considered full employment. We have dealt with 2.1%. Our good ole Red states have relied on undocumented workers for as long as I can remember. We have had out major packing plants shut down across the state when ICE showed up.
Yesterday I was going through a facebook post from local beef producers about the lack of dairies in the area. The same people that were complaining were also the same people pushing for deportation.
Nixon was quoted on tapes back in the 70’s about the hiring of undocumented workers. It’s been a staple for hundreds of years. We could set up a system that tracks migrants, but that would take away a political issue for both parties.
 
The trade weighted average I’ve seen in both EU and China was between 3 to 5%.

You can't just look at "tariffs",.. Trump wants negotiations to address the negative impact tariffs, unreasonable trade restrictions, and value added taxes,... All of these hinder US exports.
 
You can't just look at "tariffs",.. Trump wants negotiations to address the negative impact tariffs, unreasonable trade restrictions, and value added taxes,... All of these hinder US exports.
So the data points in every negotiation are complex as the relative strength of the dollar to that country dictates the financial benefit to private companies who then have to evaluate their moves post agreement. Trump has over simplified he or the negotiating country can tailor massive reactionary based parameters in a one shot perfect.

Aim small, miss small. The scope of what he's trying from a work product volume and margin of error is neither small, nor inconsequential if he has miscalculated. He literally has no leverage, because the scope is beyond what he can effectively lift in a best case scenario.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bcherod and DFSNOLE
Because of the numerous companies involved in each individual country and those in ours are not part of this negotiation process whatever is the work output from a bilateral negotiation is static, which then gets input into a dynamic environment (an undefined algorithm).

The rudimentary data used in the tariff calculation of last week doesn't give me any faith the right people are in the room at the White House. That's even if Trump is correct on his timing now is the ideal time to tackle all this.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bcherod and DFSNOLE
I am Blessed that I am someone that has a great retirement portfolio. And I am not at all concerned about this current correction. In fact, I have upped my investments in the last month, as recently as Thursday.

And, per the lastest reports from: Business Insider, 3USAFacts, 3A Wealth of Common Sense, AARP, PressEconomic Innovation Group and PBS: approximately half of American households have no retirement savings. And, among adults aged 50 and above, about 20% are without retirement savings.

Let that sink in. So, I respectfully disagree with you, and will stand by my statement that the lower and middle class have been devistated way more by Biden's 9% inflation then the current Wall Street correction.

9% inflation is going to be a cakewalk compared to the inflation from the tariffs.

And many middle class people get bonuses based on company performance. Almost 50%. So… there will likely be a reduction in real incomes this year purely as a result of this.
 
You're wrong yet again and still a pussy.
That's all you have? And you call ME the pussy? 😂

Everything I said about you was spot on. You really are the piece of Sh!t we all knew you were.

It's really quite amazing and sad, 45,332 post under this account and so many more under your other(s). Get a Fu@king life moron.

Or, better yet....keep posting all day every day from your basement safe space. But again.....don't foget your meds! Chode. :rolleyes:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hawkman34
Riley, you are a mess. Your anger has taken over completely.
Hawk, this guy is a complete idiot, but HILARIOUS to trigger!!

At least for me, it is truly fun to call out his lies and bullshit. Have you not figured out that this grandpa has no life outside of his computer and being constantly logged onto HROT?

Oh, and if you want....PM me and I will let you know what other handle he uses. It is glorious to see him lose his mind. 😂
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hawkman34
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT