1. Strength of Record. Nebraska is 5-6. Their only quality win is against Michigan State at home and they needed to depend on an absolutely ridiculous non call by a referee to get it done. Nebraska allowed 55 points to 2-9 Purdue and lost by 10, lost to NW at home, lost to UW at home, lost to IL, lost Miami, lost to BYU. The Hawks beat Purdue by 20, beat NW by 30 on the road, beat UW on the road, beat IL by 9, and beat everyone else on their schedule, never trailing in the fourth quarter, their closest win by 3 against Pitt (and that was 7 games ago), and hasn't been seriously contested in the fourth quarter since beating Wisconsin.
2. Iowa's offense. No one has been able to shut it down since the UW game. For the past six games the lowest scoring total was 29 points; in the past five games the lowest scoring total was 31. Nebraska has given up more than 25 points in 7 games (out of 11) and has given up 30 or more 5 times. In terms of scoring offense versus scoring defense, Nebraska is frightfully bad and Iowa is incredibly good.
3. Iowa's balance on offense. The Cornhuskers are good against the run, but that appears to be mostly because they are so atrocious against the pass. They've given up over 300 yards per game this season and Iowa, namely C.J.Beatherd and his numerous receivers, have proven capable of taking advantage of teams that load up on the run, especially those teams incredibly weak against the pass--and Nebraska is worse against the pass than every other team Iowa has faced this year. Passing should open up space--and big gains--for Iowa's rushing attack ... when it isn't gashing Nebraska's defense with the pass.
4. Special teams. Iowa has the advantage at kicker, punter, and return game. It may not seem like a big deal, but in a game like this it could be significant.
5. Turnovers. Iowa is 5th in the nation at +1.2 per game on the year whereas Nebraska is 116th in the nation at -0.9 per game. In the last three games for each team, Iowa is +0.3 and Nebraska is -2.3. Tommy Armstrong has 12 interceptions on the year (and he didn't even play every game) while Beatherd has just 3 INTs. For all the talk of how many passing yards per game Armstrong has, his team has often been behind or in tight games and therefore desperate to throw. He is a talented QB but NB's offense is one dimensional which could allow Iowa's superior secondary to make plays on Armstrong throughout the game, especially in the second half when he will likely have to air it out to try to keep Nebraska in the game once they fall behind by a couple of scores.
All-in-all, Iowa has proven they can win close games and blowouts while Nebraska has been inconsistent all year and has lost to both good teams and bad. If they play perfectly and Iowa plays a subpar game, they have a chance. Barring a total collapse by Iowa, the Hawks should finish the regular season 12-0 over a pesky but overmatched Cornhuskers' team.
2. Iowa's offense. No one has been able to shut it down since the UW game. For the past six games the lowest scoring total was 29 points; in the past five games the lowest scoring total was 31. Nebraska has given up more than 25 points in 7 games (out of 11) and has given up 30 or more 5 times. In terms of scoring offense versus scoring defense, Nebraska is frightfully bad and Iowa is incredibly good.
3. Iowa's balance on offense. The Cornhuskers are good against the run, but that appears to be mostly because they are so atrocious against the pass. They've given up over 300 yards per game this season and Iowa, namely C.J.Beatherd and his numerous receivers, have proven capable of taking advantage of teams that load up on the run, especially those teams incredibly weak against the pass--and Nebraska is worse against the pass than every other team Iowa has faced this year. Passing should open up space--and big gains--for Iowa's rushing attack ... when it isn't gashing Nebraska's defense with the pass.
4. Special teams. Iowa has the advantage at kicker, punter, and return game. It may not seem like a big deal, but in a game like this it could be significant.
5. Turnovers. Iowa is 5th in the nation at +1.2 per game on the year whereas Nebraska is 116th in the nation at -0.9 per game. In the last three games for each team, Iowa is +0.3 and Nebraska is -2.3. Tommy Armstrong has 12 interceptions on the year (and he didn't even play every game) while Beatherd has just 3 INTs. For all the talk of how many passing yards per game Armstrong has, his team has often been behind or in tight games and therefore desperate to throw. He is a talented QB but NB's offense is one dimensional which could allow Iowa's superior secondary to make plays on Armstrong throughout the game, especially in the second half when he will likely have to air it out to try to keep Nebraska in the game once they fall behind by a couple of scores.
All-in-all, Iowa has proven they can win close games and blowouts while Nebraska has been inconsistent all year and has lost to both good teams and bad. If they play perfectly and Iowa plays a subpar game, they have a chance. Barring a total collapse by Iowa, the Hawks should finish the regular season 12-0 over a pesky but overmatched Cornhuskers' team.
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