Fran's Coaching in close games

[Bulldogs1974]

=. +/- 5 point games

At Iowa:
34-55 in close games. In 12 seasons he is only above .500 in close games in 2 seasons (one of those was season 2). His overall win % at iowa is 60%

For Comparison
Greg Gard
At Wisconsin:
39-29 in close games. In 7 seasons he is above .500 in close games 4 seasons. His overall win % at wisconsin is 65%.

A couple points:
1. The margin between success and "just another season" is pretty thin and we are seemingly close yet so far away; I think that's what frustrates some of us.

2. If Fran's close game winning % was the same as Gard's, then their overall win % would be pretty close. Gard has 2 sweet 16's and was an ot from elite 8.
I think if we were a little more defensive minded we could achieve that level of success and I would think most Iowa fans would be happy with 2 sweet 16's in the past 7 years.

 

[General Tso]

Super fascinating stats, kinda tells it all. Two of those close losses were the difference between first weekend exit and potential sweet 16 appearances.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

No, you’d still be miserable.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

No, you’d still be miserable.

With nothing, again...
Why don't you take a try at talking about basketball.

 

[TampaHawkfan]

I'm not surprised - winning close games has been kind of a bugaboo in Fran's era. Interesting to see some actual stats on it, though. Iowa is good at winning by 10+ often and typically beats up on teams its supposed to beat, but close games against more evenly matched opponents, and Fran's teams seem to not be able to get stops when needed down the stretch. This seemed to turn a bit in the BTT this year but am not sold that it's here to stay until I see our teams do it more consistently. Hate to keep harping on the need for defense to be part of this program's DNA, but...

 

[HawkLogic]

I'm not surprised - winning close games has been kind of a bugaboo in Fran's era. Interesting to see some actual stats on it, though. Iowa is good at winning by 10+ often and typically beats up on teams its supposed to beat, but close games against more evenly matched opponents, and Fran's teams seem to not be able to get stops when needed down the stretch. This seemed to turn a bit in the BTT this year but am not sold that it's here to stay until I see our teams do it more consistently. Hate to keep harping on the need for defense to be part of this program's DNA, but...

Yes, the OP brings good data.

I think the close game results were actually a lot, lot worse for FRAN before JBO era. During first half of Fran's Iowa stint, Fran strategy for game deciding shots was to Devyn Marble and then Gesell to go ISO in close games and they had poor results. Gesell also wasn't a good FT shooter.. examples would be a loss at ISU to Niang and crew when Iowa had something like a 7pt lead with a couple minutes left and Gesell missed a couple 1 and 1s.

Things improved a little with JBO making a big 3pt game winner at Wisconsin his Freshmen year and since then he's had overall good results with shooting game winners...but teams started to realize he wasn't going to beat them with the dribble so they got out on him...like the Indiana game....that was lucky bank shot because JBO couldn't shake his defender with the dribble.

However JBO really stood out as a game closer with his Free throws....good teams have 85% plus ball handler that can close games with FTs.

A lot of it comes down to PG play. There was thread of best PG of Fran era and the honest conclusion is none of them have been close to elite. Some had parts of the game they were good at, but none were at elite level like a Ronnie Lester or BJ Armstrong etc.

This Bowen pg coming in, hopefully he is the guy that changes the narrative that Fran can't recruit PGs.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

Yes, the OP brings good data.

I think the close game results were actually a lot, lot worse for FRAN before JBO era. During first half of Fran's Iowa stint, Fran strategy for game deciding shots was to Devyn Marble and then Gesell to go ISO in close games and they had poor results. Gesell also wasn't a good FT shooter.. examples would be a loss at ISU to Niang and crew when Iowa had something like a 7pt lead with a couple minutes left and Gesell missed a couple 1 and 1s.

Things improved a little with JBO making a big 3pt game winner at Wisconsin his Freshmen year and since then he's had overall good results with shooting game winners...but teams started to realize he wasn't going to beat them with the dribble so they got out on him...like the Indiana game....that was lucky bank shot because JBO couldn't shake his defender with the dribble.

However JBO really stood out as a game closer with his Free throws....good teams have 85% plus ball handler that can close games with FTs.

A lot of it comes down to PG play. There was thread of best PG of Fran era and the honest conclusion is none of them have been close to elite. Some had parts of the game they were good at, but none were at elite level like a Ronnie Lester or BJ Armstrong etc.

This Bowen pg coming in, hopefully he is the guy that changes the narrative that Fran can't recruit PGs.

you are correct: we are 18-21 with jbo and 16-34 without. What's interesting about that is that we were in more close games before jbo than after. Not really sure what that says. Also I believe Joe T has a couple of those 18 winners (which he rarely if ever plays at the end) and I'm sure Joe W has a few.
so I'm not really sure what conclusion to make about that.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

Well, I'll play.

The Hawks played in 9 +/- 5 pt games. Their record was 3-6.

Two losses to Illinois (B1G champ), one to S16 Michigan. The other losses were PSU, Rutgers and Richmond. Two at home, 4 on the road or neutral court,

Wins were Virginia, Indiana, and Maryland. One on the road, one at home, and one on a neutral court.

Illinois was just better I guess.
Kind of got screwed at Rutgers
PSU double OT - PSU hit a 3 to tie which was pretty bad traveling.

Conclusion - 🤷‍♂️

 

[Bulldogs1974]

Well, I'll play.

The Hawks played in 9 +/- 5 pt games. Their record was 3-6.

Two losses to Illinois (B1G champ), one to S16 Michigan. The other losses were PSU, Rutgers and Richmond. Two at home, 4 on the road or neutral court,

Wins were Virginia, Indiana, and Maryland. One on the road, one at home, and one on a neutral court.

Illinois was just better I guess.
Kind of got screwed at Rutgers
PSU double OT - PSU hit a 3 to tie which was pretty bad traveling.

Conclusion - 🤷‍♂️

Yes, One year it's hard to draw conclusions but 12?

 

[Hawk_4shur]

Yes, One year it's hard to draw conclusions but 12?

My only comment is that you have to dig a little deeper. Maybe the opponent was favored by 12 and the Hawks lost by 2. Is that the same as the Hawks being favored by 12 and losing by 2?

I'm just saying that it's very difficult to draw conclusions based on that stat alone. Maybe if someone were to dig deeper it would show that Fran can finish the close games - IDK.

 

[Ronman]

OP picks the one coach that has had unworldly good luck (KenPom 16th in luck) in close games this year to make McCaffery look even worse. No agenda here.

 

[hooper56]

=. +/- 5 point games

At Iowa:
34-55 in close games. In 12 seasons he is only above .500 in close games in 2 seasons (one of those was season 2). His overall win % at iowa is 60%

For Comparison
Greg Gard
At Wisconsin:
39-29 in close games. In 7 seasons he is above .500 in close games 4 seasons. His overall win % at wisconsin is 65%.

A couple points:
1. The margin between success and "just another season" is pretty thin and we are seemingly close yet so far away; I think that's what frustrates some of us.

2. If Fran's close game winning % was the same as Gard's, then their overall win % would be pretty close. Gard has 2 sweet 16's and was an ot from elite 8.
I think if we were a little more defensive minded we could achieve that level of success and I would think most Iowa fans would be happy with 2 sweet 16's in the past 7 years.

This is a meaningless stat. Instead of winning by 10 or more would Fran be a better coach if we only won by 2 or 3? We seldom get blown out. Most losses are pretty close. Does that mean Fran is a bad coach? C'mon.

 

[TampaHawkfan]

This is a meaningless stat. Instead of winning by 10 or more would Fran be a better coach if we only won by 2 or 3? We seldom get blown out. Most losses are pretty close. Does that mean Fran is a bad coach? C'mon.

Not meaningless at all.

If Iowa is consistently losing close games, things like a turnover at a bad time, not getting a stop when you need it, a bad offensive possession, etc. is something that may bite you in a close game that is somewhat glossed over when the team wins comfortably.

Iowa is not going to win every close game. I get it. But, if you are consistently losing close games, particularly over a larger sample size (say, 12 years), then that speaks to a larger systemic issue besides just "bad luck" and not getting the bounces to go your way. What exactly those issues may be, is a larger discussion. No one can tell me that good/poor coaching doesn't come into play in a tight game.

 

[hawkeyemark56]

Sometimes the ball bounces your way and that just comes with the game no matter the sport. You have to put yourself in a position to win when the games get tight and Fran IMO does just an average job of that. Rebounding, locking in on defense and playing hard generally puts you in a position to win. The Badgers do that far better than Fran's teams and the results in NCAA tournament play over the years show that.

 

[2432Hawk]

=. +/- 5 point games

At Iowa:
34-55 in close games. In 12 seasons he is only above .500 in close games in 2 seasons (one of those was season 2). His overall win % at iowa is 60%

For Comparison
Greg Gard
At Wisconsin:
39-29 in close games. In 7 seasons he is above .500 in close games 4 seasons. His overall win % at wisconsin is 65%.

A couple points:
1. The margin between success and "just another season" is pretty thin and we are seemingly close yet so far away; I think that's what frustrates some of us.

2. If Fran's close game winning % was the same as Gard's, then their overall win % would be pretty close. Gard has 2 sweet 16's and was an ot from elite 8.
I think if we were a little more defensive minded we could achieve that level of success and I would think most Iowa fans would be happy with 2 sweet 16's in the past 7 years.

I put this into the same category of NCAA Tourney advancement....

both winning close games and advancing in March seem to be helped when you defend and have good guards (no pun intended)

 

[Bulldogs1974]

OP picks the one coach that has had unworldly good luck (KenPom 16th in luck) in close games this year to make McCaffery look even worse. No agenda here.

I picked gard because I see our programs and states as very similar. pick another coach with 12+ years as a head coach at the same school and we'll see how they stack up.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

OP picks the one coach that has had unworldly good luck (KenPom 16th in luck) in close games this year to make McCaffery look even worse. No agenda here.

Gard did have a good record in close games this year but I didn't know that going in. Gards record hasn't been that different than Fran's, thus the comparison. The difference as noted was in close games which has led to some tournament success, something we'd all like. Gard does have several good seasons in close games: 5-1, and 6-2 in another.
Mccaffery's best season in close games was in 19' at 6-3.
Any coach that has been at one stop for 12 years should probably be right around .500 in close games. Things tend to average out given enough data points.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

first coach I looked at: Greg Mcdermott:
Creighton since 2011:
31-33 in close games Big east only. If I include the 3 years of MVC it goes to 45-44. Right about .500.

 

[Herky T Hawk]

I picked gard because I see our programs and states as very similar.

Our programs and states are not very similar.
Wisconsin has 5.8MM people in it, and has a large metropolitan city in Milwaukee with about 1.7MM people and a smaller metro of Madison with a population of 900k. Iowa has 3.1MM people in it and has Des Moines with about a 700k metro population as the largest city. Wisconsin has Marquette from the Big East as a big conference competitor in state, but they are a private school of about 12,000 students total. Iowa has Iowa State from the Big 12 as a big conference competitor, a state school that splits resources from Iowa with a total of almost 31,000 students, and also happens to be a short drive away from the largest metropolitan area in the state.

Trust me, if you could choose between those two situations when starting a program, you'd pick Wisconsin's every day of the week.


But having said all of that, to the point of the OP Fran has historically not done well in close games. He doesn't use his timeouts and hopes his guys can just make a play when time is running out. We've complained about that many times over the years. At least this season he showed signs of using his timeouts better during the game to stymie a run by the other team. In years past he always let his guys play through it and then next thing you know the other team is on a 15-2 run against us.

 

[BonzoFury]

No, you’d still be miserable.

Making is personal instead of addressing the data or point. Classic.

 

[Bulldogs1974]

I agree with many of the things you posted. I would however say, Wisconsin tends to get a lot of kids from minnesota and their teams don't tend to be athletically gifted. Also, they are not historically good. Recently, since bo ryan, yes, historically no.
I was looking at the similarity of athletes, wisconsin is not jumping off the page with athletes.
I tend to look at wisconsin with a certain level of envy, they tend to be the teams we would like to be, both in basketball and football. They just tend to find a good balance of offense and defense in both sports that I wish we had. The results speak for themselves.

 

[hooper56]

Not meaningless at all.

If Iowa is consistently losing close games, things like a turnover at a bad time, not getting a stop when you need it, a bad offensive possession, etc. is something that may bite you in a close game that is somewhat glossed over when the team wins comfortably.

Iowa is not going to win every close game. I get it. But, if you are consistently losing close games, particularly over a larger sample size (say, 12 years), then that speaks to a larger systemic issue besides just "bad luck" and not getting the bounces to go your way. What exactly those issues may be, is a larger discussion. No one can tell me that good/poor coaching doesn't come into play in a tight game.

Ok let's take every 10+ points victory and make it a 2 point victory. Suddenly, Fran wins all the close games. He must be a great coach. Like I said, meaningless stat.

 

[hooper56]

Gard did have a good record in close games this year but I didn't know that going in. Gards record hasn't been that different than Fran's, thus the comparison. The difference as noted was in close games which has led to some tournament success, something we'd all like. Gard does have several good seasons in close games: 5-1, and 6-2 in another.
Mccaffery's best season in close games was in 19' at 6-3.
Any coach that has been at one stop for 12 years should probably be right around .500 in close games. Things tend to average out given enough data points.

Fran wins by too many points! That's bad coaching, right?

 

[HawkLogic]

you are correct: we are 18-21 with jbo and 16-34 without. What's interesting about that is that we were in more close games before jbo than after. Not really sure what that says. Also I believe Joe T has a couple of those 18 winners (which he rarely if ever plays at the end) and I'm sure Joe W has a few.
so I'm not really sure what conclusion to make about that.

I admire your work ethic to do the research---your are providing good information on a site where presenting facts/actual results makes you a Hater.

I was curious about Fran's seemingly abysmal performance in NCAA tourney play. I think he is 0-7 to get to sweet 16 at Iowa. If B-ball games outcomes were random like a coin flip, then the chance of Fran NOT making the Sweet16 zero times in seven tries is is around 15.6%....this is based on 1/4 chance winning 2 games in a row for normal year and 1/8 chance making sweet16 in the one year Iowa appeared in the First-4.

Of course this is simplistic...in 1st round Iowa would usually be heavily favored in 2nd round Iowa would usually be the underdog....however to 1st order it does indicate Fran is either unlucky or suffers from systematic issues...i.e. a systematic issue would be say.... he plays the guys with good offense/poor defense over the guy with poor offense/good defense + he has a loyalty bias towards playing people he's shares dna with or he's known the longest..i.e. cmac, pmac, jbo.

Maybe Fran's luck will change in future. He is an old man and does seems to suffer from old man syndrome of beign set in his ways.

 

[HawkLogic]

Ok let's take every 10+ points victory and make it a 2 point victory. Suddenly, Fran wins all the close games. He must be a great coach. Like I said, meaningless stat.

the more you post, the worse you look.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Logic trying to do math must be as painful as it looks in writing. Woof.

 

[hawkeyemark56]

I agree with many of the things you posted. I would however say, Wisconsin tends to get a lot of kids from minnesota and their teams don't tend to be athletically gifted. Also, they are not historically good. Recently, since bo ryan, yes, historically no.
I was looking at the similarity of athletes, wisconsin is not jumping off the page with athletes.
I tend to look at wisconsin with a certain level of envy, they tend to be the teams we would like to be, both in basketball and football. They just tend to find a good balance of offense and defense in both sports that I wish we had. The results speak for themselves.

Neither Wisconsin nor Iowa will out talent most teams in the NCAA tournament past the first or second round. The Badgers just play fundamentally good basketball and at times overachieve. Hard to ever make that case for Fran's teams over the years.

 

[Buffalo43]

Its the brighter than the sun Wilson orange basketball s

 

[HawkRugged17]

Just a question - why does +/- 5 points make a game close? Was the Big 10 Title game a close game? It ended 75-66 Iowa. However, with 1:11 to go, it was 67-62 Iowa leading.

I would consider that a close game (an Iowa win).

Just as Iowa losing at Purdue (70-77) on 12-3-2021. With 33 seconds to go, it was 75-70 with Purdue leading. I would also consider that a close game (an Iowa loss).

I do think Iowa's free throw shooting (JBo, for example) makes games seem to be not close when fouling is being done in the last minute or 2?

Thoughts?

 

[Bulldogs1974]

Just a question - why does +/- 5 points make a game close? Was the Big 10 Title game a close game? It ended 75-66 Iowa. However, with 1:11 to go, it was 67-62 Iowa leading.

I would consider that a close game (an Iowa win).

Just as Iowa losing at Purdue (70-77) on 12-3-2021. With 33 seconds to go, it was 75-70 with Purdue leading. I would also consider that a close game (an Iowa loss).

I do think Iowa's free throw shooting (JBo, for example) makes games seem to be not close when fouling is being done in the last minute or 2?

Thoughts?

I agree those can certainly happen but the inverse of that is also true. Given 12 years of data they will tend to average out.
just picked 5 points before looking at results. +/-6 is actually worse.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

Defense wins.

it really is that simple.

until you commit to defense every single time down the court you are going to end up on the short end a good chunk of the time in tight games.

 

[HawkRugged17]

I agree those can certainly happen but the inverse of that is also true. Given 12 years of data they will tend to average out.
just picked 5 points before looking at results. +/-6 is actually worse.

Good points. I just don't judge a game being close because of the ending score. It depends on how the game gets there. I want to be entertained. And winning helps!

 

[Bulldogs1974]

Good points. I just don't judge a game being close because of the ending score. It depends on how the game gets there. I want to be entertained. And winning helps!

I hear you. You'd have to look at 12 years of game cast to truly know and I'm not doing that. I'm sure there are many 8-10 point games that were 1 possession games 20 seconds before, so I'm siding with the law of averages.

 

[iahawks10]

Its the brighter than the sun Wilson orange basketball s

Does anyone have any data as to shooting percentages (esp 3 pt %) in this year’s tournament? I’d like to see those compared to the regular season stats.

 

[BonzoFury]

KFz had a good record in close games. Partially because he often lets lesser opponents stay in the game too long instead of putting them away. In that case he gets "close win" credit because he won by less than a touchdown when in reality he should have beaten a lesser team by much more. This is one of those stats that's difficult if not impossible to measure in a statistically meaningful way.

 

[General Tso]

Our programs and states are not very similar.
Wisconsin has 5.8MM people in it, and has a large metropolitan city in Milwaukee with about 1.7MM people and a smaller metro of Madison with a population of 900k. Iowa has 3.1MM people in it and has Des Moines with about a 700k metro population as the largest city. Wisconsin has Marquette from the Big East as a big conference competitor in state, but they are a private school of about 12,000 students total. Iowa has Iowa State from the Big 12 as a big conference competitor, a state school that splits resources from Iowa with a total of almost 31,000 students, and also happens to be a short drive away from the largest metropolitan area in the state.

Trust me, if you could choose between those two situations when starting a program, you'd pick Wisconsin's every day of the week.


But having said all of that, to the point of the OP Fran has historically not done well in close games. He doesn't use his timeouts and hopes his guys can just make a play when time is running out. We've complained about that many times over the years. At least this season he showed signs of using his timeouts better during the game to stymie a run by the other team. In years past he always let his guys play through it and then next thing you know the other team is on a 15-2 run against us.

Fair analysis but you conveniently left out the part about Wisconsin's proclivity to toss the salad of various farm animals. Given that, I'd choose Iowa.

 

[SI_NYC]

With nothing, again...
Why don't you take a try at bitching about Iowa basketball. That's what I like to do.

FIFY

 

[Bulldogs1974]

FIFY

So clever. Yet brings nothing of substance to discuss. Which isn’t surprising.

 

[BonzoFury]

Fair analysis but you conveniently left out the part about Wisconsin's proclivity to toss the salad of various farm animals. Given that, I'd choose Iowa.

I think you've forgetting ISU re: farm animals

 

[HawkRugged17]

I think you're forgetting ISU re: farm animals