Good item in 538 on this Iowa team

[DodgerHawki]

Good story in 538 on Iowa. Pretty much lays out the hurdles Iowa needs to overcome given its profile. This is the key paragraph:

"In all, from 2002 to 2019, 25 teams went into the NCAA Tournament ranked in the top five in adjusted offense and worse than 75th in adjusted defense.3 Though the list includes three No. 2 seeds, seven No. 3 seeds and six No. 4 seeds, only one of the 25 teams — Marquette in 2003 — reached the Final Four. Fifteen of the 25 failed to reach the tournament’s second weekend."

So 60% of the teams with a similar profile haven't made the Sweet 16. It's just hard to go deep into the tournament being bad on defense. Not impossible, but difficult.

Can Iowa’s High-Flying Offense Overcome Its Porous Defense? | FiveThirtyEight

 

[EKHawk]

"So 60% of the teams with a similar profile haven't made the Sweet 16. It's just hard to go deep into the tournament being bad on defense. Not impossible, but difficult."

Makes me wonder how many of them were from the Big Ten. The Hawks defense isn't in the top 25 but I'm guessing it would be ranked better if they were in any number of other conferences. How many defensive juggernauts does Gonzaga play in the West Coast Conference?

 

[KcTo]

Good story in 538 on Iowa. Pretty much lays out the hurdles Iowa needs to overcome given its profile. This is the key paragraph:

"In all, from 2002 to 2019, 25 teams went into the NCAA Tournament ranked in the top five in adjusted offense and worse than 75th in adjusted defense.3 Though the list includes three No. 2 seeds, seven No. 3 seeds and six No. 4 seeds, only one of the 25 teams — Marquette in 2003 — reached the Final Four. Fifteen of the 25 failed to reach the tournament’s second weekend."

So 60% of the teams with a similar profile haven't made the Sweet 16. It's just hard to go deep into the tournament being bad on defense. Not impossible, but difficult.

Can Iowa’s High-Flying Offense Overcome Its Porous Defense? | FiveThirtyEight

Absolutely the case for sacrificing some offense for more defense, and for optimized minutes for Iowa best defensive player, Murray.
playing more M2M is a great tactical move by Fran
not playing Murray more minutes than anyone not named Garza or Wieskamp is a tactical blunder.

 

[pocha444444]

Absolutely the case for sacrificing some offense for more defense, and for optimized minutes for Iowa best defensive player, Murray.
playing more M2M is a great tactical move by Fran
not playing Murray more minutes than anyone not named Garza or Wieskamp is a tactical blunder.

Agreed. I've been one calling for more Toussaint minutes, but the more glaring blunder is Murray still not getting close to 30 mind a game

 

[KcTo]

Agreed. I've been one calling for more Toussaint minutes, but the more glaring blunder is Murray still not getting close to 30 mind a game

Game after game after game we’ve seen the 2nd team come in and dsignificantly hold teams PPP, and extend leads, sometimes significantly when they also score ( as that can with Murray, Nunge ansnPMac) via defense and rebounding,

if JoeT was the non primary PG, and didn’t have to worry about offensive responsibilities, he would be an incredible plus positive player.

 

[ObeseMuffins]

Game after game after game we’ve seen the 2nd team come in and dsignificantly hold teams PPP, and extend leads, sometimes significantly when they also score ( as that can with Murray, Nunge ansnPMac) via defense and rebounding,

if JoeT was the non primary PG, and didn’t have to worry about offensive responsibilities, he would be an incredible plus positive player.

That's got me thinking a little. What if Joe T played a role more like Illinois's Andre Curbelo? We know Joe T is not the best with protecting the ball, but he is great at cutting to the rim.

 

[walleye hunter16]

Good story in 538 on Iowa. Pretty much lays out the hurdles Iowa needs to overcome given its profile. This is the key paragraph:

"In all, from 2002 to 2019, 25 teams went into the NCAA Tournament ranked in the top five in adjusted offense and worse than 75th in adjusted defense.3 Though the list includes three No. 2 seeds, seven No. 3 seeds and six No. 4 seeds, only one of the 25 teams — Marquette in 2003 — reached the Final Four. Fifteen of the 25 failed to reach the tournament’s second weekend."

So 60% of the teams with a similar profile haven't made the Sweet 16. It's just hard to go deep into the tournament being bad on defense. Not impossible, but difficult.

Can Iowa’s High-Flying Offense Overcome Its Porous Defense? | FiveThirtyEight

It's always hard to go deep in the tournament because in basketball ANY team can have a great game and take out a contender. It is called March Madness for a reason.

 

[icwesthawk]

That's got me thinking a little. What if Joe T played a role more like Illinois's Andre Curbelo? We know Joe T is not the best with protecting the ball, but he is great at cutting to the rim.

Still got to get him some better shoes that actually have tread on them

 

[TrianglePlace]

"So 60% of the teams with a similar profile haven't made the Sweet 16. It's just hard to go deep into the tournament being bad on defense. Not impossible, but difficult."

Makes me wonder how many of them were from the Big Ten. The Hawks defense isn't in the top 25 but I'm guessing it would be ranked better if they were in any number of other conferences. How many defensive juggernauts does Gonzaga play in the West Coast Conference?

These rankings are adjusted for competition.

 

[pocha444444]

That's got me thinking a little. What if Joe T played a role more like Illinois's Andre Curbelo? We know Joe T is not the best with protecting the ball, but he is great at cutting to the rim.

Yep, I've called for more Toussaint minutes and less Bohannon, and some have taken that as me hating on Bohannon. I'd love to see more Bohannon/Toussaint minutes together though, I think they compliment each other well.

 

[IllQChawk]

That's got me thinking a little. What if Joe T played a role more like Illinois's Andre Curbelo? We know Joe T is not the best with protecting the ball, but he is great at cutting to the rim.

And getting his shot stuffed back in his face or pinned between multiply players and called for traveling. Got you...
Granted when he got the opportunity the play extensive minutes last year he was able to settle down and be quite productive. This year with Bohannan back and looking to finish at the top of Iowa's career assist and 3 pointers made, plus top 15 scorer in Iowa history he's been relegated to backup and limited minutes.
Because of this he's trying to do too much when he does get playing time and in most cases it leads to a turnover.
At 6 feet he is limited guarding point guards that are taller then him and he doesn't get close enough to guard players that shoot over him, plus he's not a very good threat to torch the other team from 3. Hence the limited minutes.

 

[dekhawk]

When the shots drop, you look like a good team. When they don’t, you better have a good defense. This concerns me regarding this team making a deep run.

 

[pocha444444]

And getting his shot stuffed back in his face

You talking about your boy Ulis against Rutgers?

 

[DodgerHawki]

These rankings are adjusted for competition.

Correct. Pomeroy's rankings are adjusted for competition. If it was just on raw stats per game, Iowa would rank lower. Playing good teams improves Iowa's rankings on an adjusted basis.

 

[IllQChawk]

You talking about your boy Ulis against Rutgers?

If given the same minutes that Toussaint gets per game, Ulis would be more productive with less turnovers, but since this scenario is highly unlikely it's a mote point.
I guess we have to wait until next year to actually see whether Toussaint or Ulis becomes the next starting point guard at Iowa.
As a Junior I'd expect Joe T to have the advantage over Ulis but I still think that Ahron will become a more efficient player, time will tell....

 

[pocha444444]

If given the same minutes that Toussaint gets per game, Ulis would be more productive with less turnovers, but since this scenario is highly unlikely it's a mote point.
I guess we have to wait until next year to actually see whether Toussaint or Ulis becomes the next starting point guard at Iowa.
As a Junior I'd expect Joe T to have the advantage over Ulis but I still think that Ahron will become a more efficient player, time will tell....

I can't imagine Ulis ever being as good as Toussaint at D. More efficient, possibly, depending on which metric you use, but I'd say Toussaint puts more pressure on the defense and opens up more for others. Agree, time will tell. Haven't seen enough of Ulis.

 

[jon55]

Yep, I've called for more Toussaint minutes and less Bohannon, and some have taken that as me hating on Bohannon. I'd love to see more Bohannon/Toussaint minutes together though, I think they compliment each other well.

Bohannon is >>>>> Toussaint.

Joe turns the ball over once every four possessions. Bohannon is top 10 for assists to turnover.

Joe's defense doesn't make up for his lack of shooting and turnovers.

 

[jonesy5960]

Still got to get him some better shoes that actually have tread on them

He's pretty fast in those racing slicks though.

 

[jonesy5960]

Absolutely the case for sacrificing some offense for more defense, and for optimized minutes for Iowa best defensive player, Murray.
playing more M2M is a great tactical move by Fran
not playing Murray more minutes than anyone not named Garza or Wieskamp is a tactical blunder.

Couldn't agree more. Keegan s/b getting 25+ per game. He won't get close to that number unless he's starting and that won't happen outside of an injury.

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

It's always hard to go deep in the tournament because in basketball ANY team can have a great game and take out a contender. It is called March Madness for a reason.

This.

If you think about who would be the polar opposite team of Iowa, it would be a 2017 or 2018 Virginia. That didn't bring bountiful tourney success did it? And obviously in 2019 they had a much better offense.

 

[KcTo]

Couldn't agree more. Keegan s/b getting 25+ per game. He won't get close to that number unless he's starting and that won't happen outside of an injury.

It’s not always true who starts vs who’s in at end of game / crunch time

bur Fran incredibly inflexible and wants his starters to play 1st 8 minutes and last 8 minutes , so it reduces Murray’s opportunities, an god forbid he picks up 2 fouls as his 17 minute/game butt will be in the bench

 

[HawksRMe]

That's got me thinking a little. What if Joe T played a role more like Illinois's Andre Curbelo? We know Joe T is not the best with protecting the ball, but he is great at cutting to the rim.

Not sure about this comparison. Curbelo was a top 50 recruit and will be a stud pg for them. Joe is not in this category imo.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Couldn't agree more. Keegan s/b getting 25+ per game. He won't get close to that number unless he's starting and that won't happen outside of an injury.

So Keegan is averaging about 17 minutes/game in conference play. Whose minutes should he be taking to get him up to 25+

 

[Ihawkhoops]

Good post and comments. I agree with others on playing Murray more and figuring out a way to maximize what Joe T. can do while minimizing his propensity to turn it over--if this is possible. Iowa needs to create a few more turnovers and / or shot alters / blocks per game to steal a handful of possessions. Other than Gonzaga being really good and a crappy game against IU, Iowa has been in every game. A few more possessions in their losses and they likely win most or all of them. Murray, IMO, is a multi-faceted defender and Connor isn't. Joe T. makes mistakes, but he puts a lot of pressure on his man and is good at jumping down to poke the ball out weak side.

Iowa could always just shoot 50% from 3 and none of the above will matter, but that's not likely to carry to the Sweet 16 or beyond.

 

[SSG T]

"So 60% of the teams with a similar profile haven't made the Sweet 16. It's just hard to go deep into the tournament being bad on defense. Not impossible, but difficult."

Makes me wonder how many of them were from the Big Ten. The Hawks defense isn't in the top 25 but I'm guessing it would be ranked better if they were in any number of other conferences. How many defensive juggernauts does Gonzaga play in the West Coast Conference?

Adjusted D is adjusted for SOS, so it really doesn't matter the league. Now, does it matter in the "real" world? Some, but not huge amounts.

The adjustment is why you rarely see bad teams in MM/LM have high O or D ratings. Gonzaga's would be lower if they didn't play the OOC they do.

 

[pocha444444]

So Keegan is averaging about 17 minutes/game in conference play. Whose minutes should he be taking to get him up to 25+

Bohannon is averaging over 31 in conference, Cmac over 23. There's your minutes right there, choose how you want to divide it up.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Bohannon is averaging over 31 in conference, Cmac over 23. There's your minutes right there, choose how you want to divide it up.

It’s not how I want to divide it, I’m asking how others would divide the minutes. So give me the lineup when Keegan takes Jordan’s minutes.

 

[pocha444444]

It’s not how I want to divide it, I’m asking how others would divide the minutes. So give me the lineup when Keegan takes Jordan’s minutes.

Roughly...

Garza - 30
Weiskamp - 30
Murray - 30
Fredrick - 30 (depending on health)
Toussaint - 25
Bohannon - 15
Pmac - 15
Nunge - 15
CMac - 10

Edit: you could give Connor's 10 to Perkins too depending on the matchup

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Why did I even ask. Oy Vay!

 

[Mountain Man Hawk]

As mentioned, the problem with Toussaint is he’s been a turnover machine. It sort of negates any benefit from better defense if he keeps handing the ball over. I’m sure Joe T. has been told this and I’m sure he’s working on it but it’s definitely still a problem.

I looked it up out of curiosity and the past couple games he’s combined for 3 turnovers in 11 minutes of play and honestly I was surprised the numbers weren’t higher than that because I feel like I hold my breath every time he has the ball.

It’s evidently easier said than done but he just needs to slow down and not try to do too much. This team is full of scorers so what we need from Joe T. is to just help distribute the ball, not race down 100 mph and get in the lane half out of control every time. Obviously he sometimes makes some great plays when he does this but given we have so many other scorers we just don’t need to risk the turnovers that seem to come with all of his drives in the lane.