Thoughts? I'd be very pleasantly surprised if we manage to win by 4 touchdowns even considering the opponent and the expectations.
Hawks -27.5 vs Miami (OH)
- Thread starter here_for_the_hawkeyes
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Although general rule is to give the points and take the favorite in lopsided spreads, I wouldn't touch this one. I do like the Hawks to cruise comfortably however.
If Wiscy can drop them 58-0 last year I think Iowa can easily win by 30. Miami OH is just a mess these days. Iowa 41 Miami 10
I know you like being a contrarian but how miserable was last season for you?
Only having 9 third downs is why Iowa won.
I don't know about anybody else here, but the above stat makes me mad because these are the games where Iowa is supposed to:
1) Kick the crap out of a lesser opponent
2) Grab headlines instead of "well, Iowa only beat ____ by 10, they're no good"
3) Get backups on the field in an actual game situation
4) Build confidence
Speaks to the mediocrity of most of those teams.
Then again, there's 2009.
But I take your point. At least with Fry we generally acted like a big boy against the little boys.
no, huskers turning it over is how iowa won, 0-9 third down conversions= fail
I think they went 3-12 third down conversions against msu, lord help us if we look up the rose bowl stats
It could also be that Iowa's schemes have been the same for quite some time, and we rely on execution. If you give a lesser team all summer to plan how to attack Iowa's schemes, perhaps they'll keep it closer for longer. Or, alternatively, if you rely on execution and when the bright lights shine for the first time, you get some guys making mistakes, it could lead to a closer game as well.
But the problem is I think these same points apply to the other top 15 FBS programs as well. I guess we tend to remember all of the Iowa "turds" or whatever you want to call them, but other programs like Michigan / Penn State / Wisconsin / Nebraska have all had close games early in their seasons or lost to teams. Would be interesting to see the same apples-for-apples statistics on season openers for the rest of the upper echelon B1G teams to know for sure... at any rate, if Iowa only beats Miami OH 27-21 or something, I'll be posting that I'm very disappointed.
For the record, I think it will be about 41-13, 40-10, something like that.
But the problem is I think these same points apply to the other top 15 FBS programs as well. I guess we tend to remember all of the Iowa "turds" or whatever you want to call them, but other programs like Michigan / Penn State / Wisconsin / Nebraska have all had close games early in their seasons or lost to teams. Would be interesting to see the same apples-for-apples statistics on season openers for the rest of the upper echelon B1G teams to know for sure... at any rate, if Iowa only beats Miami OH 27-21 or something, I'll be posting that I'm very disappointed.
For the record, I think it will be about 41-13, 40-10, something like that.
Yes that also helped, but when you have a couple very long TD runs and a pick six, it limits your opportunity for first downs, and third downs for that matter. Had they had six more third downs, they may have lost.
Everybody has warts...even teams that win twelve games. I'm sure Jessica Alba has mole on her ass, or something like that. You are the only guy on earth that would kick her out of bed upon seeing it.
I would guess Iowa either covers, or covers that spread at some point during the game.
I would love to see a score run up. Not that I have anything against miami of oh. Pretty hard to get worked up about a lower tier mac team.
I do have a concern that Iowa does not step on the neck of teams when they should. This should be a runaway early and all the players on the roster not red shirting or injured should get some minutes on the field at some point.
This is not about taking them lightly. This is about a team that should be ready to bury their inferior opponent from the opening kick. Rest the starters. Get the backups some PT in a game situation. Will that happen? I'll have to see it to believe it.
I do have a concern that Iowa does not step on the neck of teams when they should. This should be a runaway early and all the players on the roster not red shirting or injured should get some minutes on the field at some point.
This is not about taking them lightly. This is about a team that should be ready to bury their inferior opponent from the opening kick. Rest the starters. Get the backups some PT in a game situation. Will that happen? I'll have to see it to believe it.
Looked up average margin of victory for the top teams in the B1G over the last 10 years:
Ohio State: 28.3 (includes a win over VaTech)
Penn State: 20.2 (includes losses to Ohio & @Temple)
Michigan State: 19.5 (includes a win over ranked Boise State team and loss @ Cal in 2008)
Wisconsin: 15.3 (includes losses at neutral sites to Alabama and LSU in the last 2 years). *side note: gotta love Wisconsin's scheduling the last few years.
Michigan: 13.8 (includes losses to Alabama, Utah, @Utah, & Appalachian St) *side note: crazy that Michigan is 6-4 in opening games last 10 years.
Summary: These numbers were much lower than I expected. I would tend to agree with the poster that said teams tend to start out slow out of the box. Miami of Ohio is pretty darn bad but 28 points is still a big win. Not sure how to bet it.
Ohio State: 28.3 (includes a win over VaTech)
Penn State: 20.2 (includes losses to Ohio & @Temple)
Michigan State: 19.5 (includes a win over ranked Boise State team and loss @ Cal in 2008)
Wisconsin: 15.3 (includes losses at neutral sites to Alabama and LSU in the last 2 years). *side note: gotta love Wisconsin's scheduling the last few years.
Michigan: 13.8 (includes losses to Alabama, Utah, @Utah, & Appalachian St) *side note: crazy that Michigan is 6-4 in opening games last 10 years.
Summary: These numbers were much lower than I expected. I would tend to agree with the poster that said teams tend to start out slow out of the box. Miami of Ohio is pretty darn bad but 28 points is still a big win. Not sure how to bet it.
