MSU is a very undisciplined team, similar to Washington. They're in the 100's in penalties per game and they're -6 in turnover margin thru 6 games. By contrast, Iowa is Top 10 in fewest penalties and is +6 in turnover margin thru 6 games. I also think Iowa has something going with this new dime defense they deployed against Washington. Getting Kyler Fisher off the field (no offense, I'm sure he's a great guy and teammate, but he's too slow to be out there covering WR or running QBs) and replacing him with an athletic safety bodes well against Chiles.
Since it's on the road, I don't see us being +24 in the score column, but I do think it'll end up somewhere around 27-13.