How Accurate Is The NFL Testing?

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

For determining NFL success? The reason I ask is that at one point Josh Jackson was an early first round pick, then he fell a bit, then fell a lot.

Then once he is drafted, they talk about his 4.53 40 time and say it needs to be 4.48. I mean really? A .05 difference can determine 30ish spots in the draft?

 

[unoHawkeye]

It’s dumb. Josey Jewell is slow even for a D1 linebacker. However, play recognition, instincts, and technique helped him become one of the best LBs in college football last year.

Receivers who are slow can make up for it with route running. Running backs who don’t have high top end speed can make up for it with vision. And cornerbacks who are slower (And yeah, JJ is hardly slow enough to warrant as big of a slide as he had) can make up for it with physicality and ball skills... which Iowa fans know he has.

 

[scotthawk1964]

There is game conditions versus testing conditions . Case in point, Jerry Rice never ran faster than a 4.6, yet I don't remember anyone catching him in a game. I'll bet Josey Jewell runs much faster in the heat of the game then his 4.82 at the combine. My guess is Joe Montana would have had terrible combine numbers. He wasn't fast and didn't have a very strong arm but he was a winner and the man when the game was on the line. . I remember Tony Mandarich and Brian Bosworth being combine freaks of nature, but never
amounted to anything in the NFL. Course Bosworth had injury problems.

 

[93hawkeye]

The college game is different from the NFL game. For example...NFL teams throw 60%? of downs? with more sophistication and precision than college offenses. If you're a LB or CB and not great at man pass defense, your stock is automatically lower than how you "looked" on college. I think Josey is in this situation.

 

[kceasthawk]

The college game is different from the NFL game. For example...NFL teams throw 60%? of downs? with more sophistication and precision than college offenses. If you're a LB or CB and not great at man pass defense, your stock is automatically lower than how you "looked" on college. I think Josey is in this situation.

If you look back at some of the writeups about Jewell, one of the things that stand out is what a great job he did defending the pass across the middle. I believe they said he had one of the lowest rates of completions against of any inside LB in college football the last couple of years.

 

[TheGuy9]

The truth is that the NFL draft can be pretty much of a crap shoot. I know that in 2016 there were more undrafted free agents than there were 1st and second round picks in the NFL in total. Granted there are more of them available, but your first and second round picks are the cream of the crop.
When talking about All Pro there are more first round and second round picks that become All Pro, but the next highest concentration of All Pro players are those that were not drafted. So one can say that the NFL does pretty well with identifying the elite players (which I am pretty sure anyone who watches a lot of college football could do nearly as well) but after the second round really has very little idea what they are doing.

 

[DaCDiggity]

I actually feel Jacksons piss poor tackling was a good portion of why he slid

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

Tanner lee got drafted and JT Barrett did not. The NFL is strange animal. Apparently having perfect fundamentals while throwing the ball to the other team is more important than actually winning games.

 

[ANYCHawk]

Testing isn't always about the end numbers

 

[scotthawk1964]

The truth is that the NFL draft can be pretty much of a crap shoot. I know that in 2016 there were more undrafted free agents than there were 1st and second round picks in the NFL in total. Granted there are more of them available, but your first and second round picks are the cream of the crop.
When talking about All Pro there are more first round and second round picks that become All Pro, but the next highest concentration of All Pro players are those that were not drafted. So one can say that the NFL does pretty well with identifying the elite players (which I am pretty sure anyone who watches a lot of college football could do nearly as well) but after the second round really has very little idea what they are doing.

Bingo, you can summarize the whole thing as you said is the NFL draft is a crapshoot. Apparently the Cleveland Browns haven't been very good at crapshoots.

 

[kceasthawk]

Bingo, you can summarize the whole thing as you said is the NFL draft is a crapshoot. Apparently the Cleveland Browns haven't been very good at crapshoots.

Oh, I don't know Scotthawk, I think they shoot (and hit),ALOT of crap, their just not very good at picking the best available football players.

 

[smallcenter]

Tanner lee got drafted and JT Barrett did not. The NFL is strange animal. Apparently having perfect fundamentals while throwing the ball to the other team is more important than actually winning games.

Uh...yeah! If you can't throw accurately in the NFL you are't gonna win. Barrett could do things at the college level because he could have planned runs and hit just enough throws to make it work. Defenses had to commit extra men to guard him. NFL linebackers are good enough, and fast enough to drop into hook zones and still come up and stop a QB at or near the line of scrimmage. Not to mention, the pros aren't risking getting "the man" hurt. Elite QBs aren't a dime a dozen in the NFL.

Look at Vince King and RG3. Same thing. The NFL is still a world of pocket passers. They want people that can knock a dime off a board at 30 yards, and be able to run away from pressure.

 

[kceasthawk]

Uh...yeah! If you can't throw accurately in the NFL you are't gonna win. Barrett could do things at the college level because he could have planned runs and hit just enough throws to make it work. Defenses had to commit extra men to guard him. NFL linebackers are good enough, and fast enough to drop into hook zones and still come up and stop a QB at or near the line of scrimmage. Not to mention, the pros aren't risking getting "the man" hurt. Elite QBs aren't a dime a dozen in the NFL.

Look at Vince King and RG3. Same thing. The NFL is still a world of pocket passers. They want people that can knock a dime off a board at 30 yards, and be able to run away from pressure.

I assume you meant Vince Young from Texas, who played for the Titans. I was shocked when he announced one of the draft picks. Standing next to Goodell, (who isn't that small), Young looked huge!

 

[unoHawkeye]

I assume you meant Vince Young from Texas, who played for the Titans. I was shocked when he announced one of the draft picks. Standing next to Goodell, (who isn't that small), Young looked huge!

“Honor, Honor Landry” I thought that was hilarious

 

[93hawkeye]

If you look back at some of the writeups about Jewell, one of the things that stand out is what a great job he did defending the pass across the middle. I believe they said he had one of the lowest rates of completions against of any inside LB in college football the last couple of years.

I guess it depends on whose eval you're reading. I only read 1 or 2 reviews, but pass coverage was mentioned as a concern. I'm not tryiing to argue the point...I'm like the rest of us: trying to figure out why the draft doesn't value certain Hawks as highly as us Iowa fans do

 

[Eyewejun]

Testing is an inexact science, but it is what they got. One day there will be programs that many variables are plugged in that will compare the prospect biometrically to former successful players, and project success.

 

[ChrisVarick]

These are billion dollar organizations. I know we can throw out the Jerry Rice comments but those are exceptions. The NFL knows the SPARQ scores and likelihood of NFL success. They have the data.

 

[HawkOn15]

Too many people look at mock drafts. I wouldn’t say Josh Jackson fell because he was given a second round grade.

 

[denmar81]

These are billion dollar organizations. I know we can throw out the Jerry Rice comments but those are exceptions. The NFL knows the SPARQ scores and likelihood of NFL success. They have the data.

They obviously don't give that data to Cleveland then.

 

[bumpstock]

They obviously don't give that data to Cleveland then.

No, they get the data..., but they interpret it like nobody else!

 

[Eyewejun]

They obviously don't give that data to Cleveland then.

Mayfield is going to be a very good NFL QB.
You guys want to start making some $$$ in Vegas? This is the year to start betting the Browns.