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Yes, I Realize She Has No Chance, But Seriously, How is Caitlin NOT the Most Valuable Player?

I love Clark! Have been watching her for years and am so impressed. That said she’s not MVP material just yet based on her performance against all others. She killed it this year but still needs to work on her turnover ratio and her shooting percentages, especially from long distance. At Iowa she had other sharpshooters who could pick the Hawks up when Clark’s shots weren’t falling; she doesn’t have that in the WNBA. If she wants to be MVP she needs to get a little better, which I trust she will. Love her!!!
She is absolutely MVP material right now. Every player has weaknesses in their game, but for some reason Caitlin is the only one that they only focus on her weaknesses. A very solid argument could be made for Wilson, Collier, and Clark. Unfortunately everyone was too afraid to not vote for Wilson, so there wasn’t really a discussion since Wilson was anointed the winner before the season started. I think Collier should have won it with Caitlin second and Wilson third, but that’s just my opinion.
 
She is absolutely MVP material right now. Every player has weaknesses in their game, but for some reason Caitlin is the only one that they only focus on her weaknesses. A very solid argument could be made for Wilson, Collier, and Clark. Unfortunately everyone was too afraid to not vote for Wilson, so there wasn’t really a discussion since Wilson was anointed the winner before the season started. I think Collier should have won it with Caitlin second and Wilson third, but that’s just my opinion.
Definitely MVP material but not there yet. I think the right person won this year. Hopefully Clark will win several in the years to come!!
 
Caitlin Clark had 3.0.

Win Shares
1.A'ja Wilson • LVA10.9
2.Breanna Stewart • NYL8.7
3.Napheesa Collier • MIN7.4
4.Jonquel Jones • NYL6.5
5.Nneka Ogwumike • SEA6.4
6.Brionna Jones • CON6.1
7.Alyssa Thomas • CON5.5
8.Ezi Magbegor • SEA5.4
9.Kayla McBride • MIN5.2
10.DeWanna Bonner • CON4.9
11.Sabrina Ionescu • NYL4.9
12.Alanna Smith • MIN4.7
13.Aliyah Boston • IND4.5
14.Bridget Carleton • MIN4.5
15.Jackie Young • LVA4.5
16.Skylar Diggins-Smith • SEA4.3
17.Brittney Griner • PHO4.0
18.Allisha Gray • ATL3.8
19.Tina Charles • ATL3.7
20.Tyasha Harris • CON3.6

 
Caitlin 17th in OWS.

Offensive Win Shares
1.A'ja Wilson • LVA7.0
2.Breanna Stewart • NYL5.4
3.Napheesa Collier • MIN3.7
4.Kelsey Mitchell • IND3.7
5.Nneka Ogwumike • SEA3.7
6.Arike Ogunbowale • DAL3.7
7.Jonquel Jones • NYL3.6
8.Aliyah Boston • IND3.6
9.Brionna Jones • CON3.6
10.Brittney Griner • PHO3.4
11.Kayla McBride • MIN3.2
12.Jackie Young • LVA3.1
13.Sabrina Ionescu • NYL2.9
14.Ezi Magbegor • SEA2.7
15.Teaira McCowan • DAL2.7
16.Bridget Carleton • MIN2.5
17.Caitlin Clark • IND2.3
18.Tiffany Hayes • LVA2.3
19.Allisha Gray • ATL2.2
20.Skylar Diggins-Smith • SEA2.2

 
Definitely MVP material but not there yet. I think the right person won this year. Hopefully Clark will win several in the years to come!!
I think she’s absolutely there, but not saying she should have won. That doesn’t mean she’s not there yet, it just means she didn’t win like everyone else in the league except one player. And Wilson put her individual stats ahead of the team’s success which caused her “mvp year” to take a two time champion and make them a much worse team. That’s not an MVP in my eyes.
 
I think she’s absolutely there, but not saying she should have won. That doesn’t mean she’s not there yet, it just means she didn’t win like everyone else in the league except one player. And Wilson put her individual stats ahead of the team’s success which caused her “mvp year” to take a two time champion and make them a much worse team. That’s not an MVP in my eyes.

How did Wilson put her individual stats ahead of the team? She led the league in scoring while being the most efficient offensive player in the league.

I don't know why you guys are so small that you have to tear down every other player to prove Caitiln is the bestest bestest basketball player who ever put on a pair of shoes.
 
I think she’s absolutely there, but not saying she should have won. That doesn’t mean she’s not there yet, it just means she didn’t win like everyone else in the league except one player. And Wilson put her individual stats ahead of the team’s success which caused her “mvp year” to take a two time champion and make them a much worse team. That’s not an MVP in my eyes.
That’s one take…
 
The biggest fault with those numbers for WAR etc is the value of assist compared to turnover isn’t adjusted right. As said above assists are harder in WNBA by higher fumble rate and lower shooting pct. Therefore successful assist should be more valuable. Also wnba player miss a lot of shots by being fouled vs nba and-1
 
I think she’s absolutely there, but not saying she should have won. That doesn’t mean she’s not there yet, it just means she didn’t win like everyone else in the league except one player. And Wilson put her individual stats ahead of the team’s success which caused her “mvp year” to take a two time champion and make them a much worse team. That’s not an MVP in my eyes.
It's really hard for me and almost all of America to judge the impact of Wilson on the league, as we only actually saw her play 3-4 games when she played against CC.
 
It will be interesting to see in future years how advanced stats might impact CC's MVP chances. Based on her college days, I have long thought that there is a bias in certain advanced value stats against guards, and that turnovers negatively impact certain advanced value stats more than they should (turnovers should be a negative, the question is how much). Win Shares* seems like the worst of the advanced value stats for guard play. An example of this guard/turnover bias is Aliyah Boston having a much better Win Shares rank this season than CC. Boston is # 12 in the league in Win Shares, Clark is # 22. That seems way too low for Clark.

*Win Shares, an advanced statistic that approximates the total number of wins a player produces for their team through their play on the offensive and defensive ends of the court. (Also, by definition, there are more Win Shares to allocate to players on teams that win more.)

I fear that Win Shares may act as a drag on CC's future MVP chances (even if the Fever can win more games so there are more Win Shares to allocate). Of the past 27 MVP winners, 20 ranked 1st or 2nd in Win Shares, 5 ranked 3rd or 4th, 1 ranked 5th, and 1 ranked 8th (Tina Charles in 2012). At least for this year, CC's Win Shares rank does not get her anywhere close to being MVP.

Clark fares much better in one of the other advanced value stats, PER*Minutes^, which perhaps highlights some flaws in Win Shares.

^PER*Minutes, an estimate of the total value created by a player in their minutes played with their per minute value estimated via PER#.
#PER-player efficiency rating, an advanced statistic to estimate the per minute value of a player from box score stats.

Clark's Per*Minutes rank this year is 5th. That puts her right on the edge of historical MVP territory. 19 former MVP winners ranked either 1st or 2nd in Per*Minutes, while 5 ranked 3rd, and 3 ranked 4th.
Win shares....

"the sum of player win shares on a given team will be roughly equal to that team’s win total for the season"

So when you play on a team of Olympians that have 8-12 more wins than the Fever do then it's a stat based heavily on the best teams in the league players.
 
How did Wilson put her individual stats ahead of the team? She led the league in scoring while being the most efficient offensive player in the league.

I don't know why you guys are so small that you have to tear down every other player to prove Caitiln is the bestest bestest basketball player who ever put on a pair of shoes.
I’m not tearing Wilson down to build Clark up…in fact, I said Clark shouldn’t have won the MVP, it should have been Collier. Wilson was on the best team in the league and back to back champion and spent the whole year focusing on her scoring stats so she could win MVP and turned them into a fourth place team. She was a high volume shooter who plays underneath in a league where no one can jump, she should have led the league in scoring. This season she made her team worse…Collier and Clark made their teams better. I guarantee you if the stats were reversed and Wilson played for the Fever and Clark played for the Aces, Wilson would have won the MVP because she took her team to the playoffs after not having been there since 2016….and Clark would not have won it because she took a back to back champion and finished fourth and had an early exit from the playoffs.
 
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