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How did the pundits get this election so wrong?

NoleATL

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Jul 11, 2007
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Much like 2020... Regardless of who gets control by one seat, they screwed the pooch again. Did they just rely on historical midterm outcomes and not do the work to dig into the details?

I've read that the GOP didn't show up and the Gen X'ers did...
 
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Glad the pollsters were wrong.

I am amazed how poorly Republicans performed.

Having said that, Biden will have trouble getting much done until MAGA is neutered.

The GOP has lost the <30 age group and they seem highly motivated.
 
A lot of people don’t respond to pollsters.
I’ll try to find it and post it, but read an article yesterday that showed that the poll were quite accurate - it was how they were interpreted by “experts” that was off by a lot. Lots of terrible assumptions and misreading of data.

**FOUND IT** Free link: https://wapo.st/3USPnig
 
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Glad the pollsters were wrong.

I am amazed how poorly Republicans performed.

Having said that, Biden will have trouble getting much done until MAGA is neutered.

The GOP has lost the <30 age group and they seem highly motivated.
Dems need to ride this for elections to come and quit wasting time trying to convince GQP cult members to vote Dems. People are locked into their camps, it’s about convincing new voters to go along with your message.
 
If nothing else it does seem that pundits started the midterms with the assumption the republicans would do well and interpreted polls to fit that narrative.

Haven’t seen enough yet overall whether the bulk of polls fit that theory as well. I do feel bad for pollsters in general when they try to take the temperature on elections or public issues in general. Between cell phones, social media, honest responders, etc it’s getting so hard to do their jobs with any degree of accuracy.
 
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I think the pollsters are doing alright. There's obviously room for improvement that I would assume will come with more data, but the landscape is changing and the old ways of collecting data are broken. It'll just take time for them to settle in, which seems to already be happening.
 
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I think that's one of the excuses the right is making for their poor showing. Anything that doesn't go their way is because of massive fraud, rigged elections, Democrats cheating, etc. What they won't do is admit defeat.
SCOTUS, SCOTUS, SCOTUS, pissed off the women and the young voter, don't think this is over because of 1 election.
 
One possible factor- with left, right and center predicting a red wave, some R voters may have figured they weren’t needed. And they weren’t gonna go out of their way to support trump style candidates.

Much like 2016 when it was assumed Hillary would win. A lot of Ds stayed home- why go out of your way for a candidate you aren’t enamored with when she’ll win without you?
 
Much like 2020... Regardless of who gets control by one seat, they screwed the pooch again. Did they just rely on historical midterm outcomes and not do the work to dig into the details?

I've read that the GOP didn't show up and the Gen X'ers did...
Actually it was Gen Z and young Millenials. They showed up Bigly. They won’t even answer the phone when Mom calls and voted at higher numbers than typical. Way not factored in polls and estimates. And every day thousands more turn 18 and register Democrats way more than Republican. Republicans never addressed their demographic problem they knew was coming and it’s going to **** them harder and harder each election.
 
Christopher Bouzy
@cbouzy

I feel good about my prediction. When all the votes are counted, Democrats will hold the House.

From his lips to the election gods' ears. If the Dems hold the House (not likely) this would be a disaster of epic proportions for the GOP.
But a huge platform for Trump and his fellow election deniers. It's not like they'll graciously accept the results.
 
Much like 2020... Regardless of who gets control by one seat, they screwed the pooch again. Did they just rely on historical midterm outcomes and not do the work to dig into the details?

I've read that the GOP didn't show up and the Gen X'ers did...
I think people react too strongly to these polling/pundit election misses. The fact of the matter is that every poll has a margin of error between 3 and 5%. Given the razor thin margins of most of these races, most of these outcomes fall within the margins of error.
 
I think people react too strongly to these polling/pundit election misses. The fact of the matter is that every poll has a margin of error between 3 and 5%. Given the razor thin margins of most of these races, most of these outcomes fall within the margins of error.

This. The538 gave the GOP an 84% of winning the house, and they will. They gave the GOP a 59% of winning the Senate, and if they do not it won’t be a massive upset. All it takes is a couple of states to have polls off by 3-4%.

IMO this is just because the GOP kept telling themselves they were going to demolish the Dems, so that message was amplified.
 
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Data

shit in shit out

The landscape has changed so dramatically in the last 10 years the data points fail based an outdated model of collecting data
 
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Data

shit in shit out

The landscape has changed so dramatically in the last 10 years the data points fail based an outdated model of collecting data

Do you have any specific examples where the polls were way off? Because there is a big difference between polls being off and pundits saying stupid things unsupported y the data.
 
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Do you have any specific examples where the polls were way off? Because there is a big difference between polls being off and pundits saying stupid things unsupported y the data.

Yes, there are numerous, what year, and what race would you like to discuss?
 
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