How Iowa will beat NW

[ichawk24]

We run the ball, and stop the run. It is that simple.

Here are the national ranks in:

Yards per carry allowed:
Iowa: 4th
Northwestern: 51st

Yards per carry:
Iowa: 40th
Northwestern: 76th

Given those numbers, I like the matchup (aside from injuries).

Neither team will be able to pass.

Yards per pass allowed:
NW: 3rd (wow, very very good)
Iowa: 45th

Yards per pass:
Iowa: 48th
NW: 116th (yes, 116th in the country at 5.7. Thorson's numbers are very poor and I don't think he can dink and dunk on us)

 

[SoMplsHawkI]

Could 13 points be enough to win?

 

[wyldhawk9]

Could 13 points be enough to win?

This is what I'm thinking...13-15 points will do it (unless there is a defensive or special teams touchdown).

 

[TankHawk]

This is what I'm thinking...13-15 points will do it (unless there is a defensive or special teams touchdown).

That is what I am thinking also.
Which means it will probably be a high scoring game.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Yards per pass:
Iowa: 48th
NW: 116th (yes, 116th in the country at 5.7. Thorson's numbers are very poor and I don't think he can dink and dunk on us)

I don't know about that. Northwestern's RBs and superbacks (Dickerson and Vitale) are significant mismatches against our LBs. If we don't make Thorson adequately uncomfortable in the pocket - he'll be able to pass to those targets all day because they're high-percentage throws.

Furthermore, Christian Jones is a big dude - could pose a physical mismatch against our secondary.

Lastly, I hope that Hesse focusses first and foremost on executing his job ... because we're going to be in dire need of the DE setting the edge against Northwestern's running game.

Northwestern might not have the best yardage per carry .... but by the 4th quarter, that ground game is going to be able to grind on you if you don't keep them off the field. Hopefully Iowa's O can possess the ball adequately well though the game so that the D will be able to "finish" the game ... because this game isn't likely to be a high scoring affair.

 

[ichawk24]

Thorson has had the opportunity for high percentage throws all year, but it hasn't happened.

 

[eyeohuh]

Having a hard time understanding why everybody is down on the Hawks over here. Yeah we are beat up bad but "thats football". People on here are expecting a loss which doesn't seem quite fair. Northwesterns offense has done nothing this year against worst defenses than ours (Mich the exception). Points are going to be hard to come by for both teams but c'mon. This is still the same NW team that got slaughtered last weekend and snuck by Ball State?

 

[nu2u]

We run the ball, and stop the run. It is that simple.

Here are the national ranks in:

Yards per carry allowed:
Iowa: 4th
Northwestern: 51st

Yards per carry:
Iowa: 40th
Northwestern: 76th

Given those numbers, I like the matchup (aside from injuries).

Neither team will be able to pass.

Yards per pass allowed:
NW: 3rd (wow, very very good)
Iowa: 45th

Yards per pass:
Iowa: 48th
NW: 116th (yes, 116th in the country at 5.7. Thorson's numbers are very poor and I don't think he can dink and dunk on us)

I believe your main point is valid - stop the run then establish the ground game on offense. That's the recipe.

I think the NW run stats are a bit misleading, though, thanks to Michigan. Jackson rushed for 120 yards against Minnesota the previous week and he is capable of breaking big runs.

 

[ichawk24]

Jackson average per carry:

Stanford 4.8
Eastern Illinois 3.5(!!!) on 22 carries
Duke 3.4
Ball State 5.6
Minnesota 6.0
Michigan 2.1

Iowa is 4th in the country in yards per attempt allowed. I think we are able to keep their ground game in check.

 

[farhawks]

The Hawks will have to throw the ball and will be able to throw the ball efficiently in this game. I don't understand why a lot of people around here seem to think we won't be able to throw the ball and that it's going to be run, run and run some more. It was some really nice pass plays last week that got us that win. I don't think we will see a huge change in our game plan due to injuries.

 

[LGEND24]

The Hawks will have to throw the ball and will be able to throw the ball efficiently in this game. I don't understand why a lot of people around here seem to think we won't be able to throw the ball and that it's going to be run, run and run some more. It was some really nice pass plays last week that got us that win. I don't think we will see a huge change in our game plan due to injuries.

Probably due to CJ not being 100%. Most of our big plays in the passing game were prior to him taking the hit that had him holding his thigh/groin area. Our new tackles haven't shown the ability to protect CJ yet, so that's why most are seeing this as a game to just pound the rock.

 

[His Hawkness]

The Hawks will have to throw the ball and will be able to throw the ball efficiently in this game. I don't understand why a lot of people around here seem to think we won't be able to throw the ball and that it's going to be run, run and run some more. It was some really nice pass plays last week that got us that win. I don't think we will see a huge change in our game plan due to injuries.

Probably because the tackles that will play this game have not shown they can pass block and add to it CJ's immobility if he is in fact injured as many believe he is. If both are true, we won't be able to pass efficiently.

 

[ichawk24]

I don't understand why a lot of people around here seem to think we won't be able to throw the ball and that it's going to be run, run and run some more.

NW has allowed the 3rd fewest yards per attempt in the country.
CJB is dinged up.
Iowa had a lot of pass protection problems last week, while they were strong in run blocking.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

Difference in the game is Neiman, he is going to be asked to match up with their super backs on 1st and 2nd down until raider package on 3rd.....I will say it again, Nieman will be playing on Sunday's and his play will win this game for us, if you don't hear his name does not mean he is not impacted the games

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Jackson average per carry:

Stanford 4.8
Eastern Illinois 3.5(!!!) on 22 carries
Duke 3.4
Ball State 5.6
Minnesota 6.0
Michigan 2.1

Iowa is 4th in the country in yards per attempt allowed. I think we are able to keep their ground game in check.

While I definitely think that Iowa's run D is legit ... I will say that Northwestern's Jackson is the best opposing running back our D will have faced to date. Their RB, Long, is really talented too. Furthermore, they do run more of the read-option stuff ... so LBs and safeties are going to have to account for the QB run-option too.

 

[LincolnHawkeye]

I believe your main point is valid - stop the run then establish the ground game on offense. That's the recipe.

I think the NW run stats are a bit misleading, though, thanks to Michigan. Jackson rushed for 120 yards against Minnesota the previous week and he is capable of breaking big runs.

Minnesota gives up 143 rush yards PG and at 3.7 YPC....not exactly stellar.....

 

[Hawknick]

Josey Jewell will also be playing on sundays. Cole Fisher is not as good but he plays his heart out

Difference in the game is Neiman, he is going to be asked to match up with their super backs on 1st and 2nd down until raider package on 3rd.....I will say it again, Nieman will be playing on Sunday's and his play will win this game for us, if you don't hear his name does not mean he is not impacted the games

 

[Hawkeyestate81]

Phil Steele picked us to lose.........

 

[Hawknick]

He also picked NW to beat Michigan last week

Phil Steele picked us to lose.........

 

[Hawknick]

Tom Dienhart over at BTN is picking Iowa 24-7 LOL

http://btn.com/2015/10/14/hold-polls-its-time-to-pick-your-week-7-big-ten-football-winners/

 

[FBletterman]

I don't know about that. Northwestern's RBs and superbacks (Dickerson and Vitale) are significant mismatches against our LBs. If we don't make Thorson adequately uncomfortable in the pocket - he'll be able to pass to those targets all day because they're high-percentage throws.

What part of dead last in D1 116th worry's you?

 

[MadDogC]

Having a hard time understanding why everybody is down on the Hawks over here. Yeah we are beat up bad but "thats football". People on here are expecting a loss which doesn't seem quite fair. Northwesterns offense has done nothing this year against worst defenses than ours (Mich the exception). Points are going to be hard to come by for both teams but c'mon. This is still the same NW team that got slaughtered last weekend and snuck by Ball State?

They also got more points against Minny than TCU did...

 

[Hawkeyestate81]

He also picked NW to beat Michigan last week

I know, just time for Saturday all this analysis is driving me nuts.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

What part of dead last in D1 116th worry's you?

Because Iowa's bend-but-not break D that the secondary has been playing has been doing a good job of preventing WRs from beating the secondary deep ... but that has been at the expense of giving up stuff underneath. When you combine that with the occasional delay in recognition by the LBs in coverage ... that means that even an inexperienced QB can throw themselves into a rhythm if the D doesn't get enough pressure on them.

I expect that in all likelihood, Iowa's D will probably do their job ... and do a good job while they're at it. However, you never know what sort of situations the O might leave them in.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

Josey Jewell will also be playing on sundays. Cole Fisher is not as good but he plays his heart out

Maybe so, however; Nieman is the LB who is asked to be flexible to play standard OLB or detached almost like a nickel corner....Kirksey and Greenway only two that I saw who could do it better....Nieman is true soph and will be better thank Kirksey....not ready to say Greenway level yet but the potential is there

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

Because Iowa's bend-but-not break D that the secondary has been playing has been doing a good job of preventing WRs from beating the secondary deep ... but that has been at the expense of giving up stuff underneath. When you combine that with the occasional delay in recognition by the LBs in coverage ... that means that even an inexperienced QB can throw themselves into a rhythm if the D doesn't get enough pressure on them.

I expect that in all likelihood, Iowa's D will probably do their job ... and do a good job while they're at it. However, you never know what sort of situations the O might leave them in.

I will take my chances with their frosh QB trying to sustain drives by throwing underneath....one sack and they are off schedule, miss throw or tip and it's a pick

 

[Gladeskat]

Tom Dienhart over at BTN is picking Iowa 24-7 LOL

http://btn.com/2015/10/14/hold-polls-its-time-to-pick-your-week-7-big-ten-football-winners/

Tom Dienhart? I'd be afraid of that prediction.

 

[sacroly]

Having a hard time understanding why everybody is down on the Hawks over here. Yeah we are beat up bad but "thats football". People on here are expecting a loss which doesn't seem quite fair. Northwesterns offense has done nothing this year against worst defenses than ours (Mich the exception). Points are going to be hard to come by for both teams but c'mon. This is still the same NW team that got slaughtered last weekend and snuck by Ball State?

I don't think anybody is down on Iowa. Quite the contrary, I think everyone is feeling good about this team. I think people are overlooking a very good nw team. They are better than Wi offensively and just as good defensively. This will be a tough one to win on the road.

 

[Packer54]

Has Northwestern played anyone with a decent passing game? I say real good balance on offense again and defense keep doin' what you do. I do think there should be some good passing opportunities set up by the run.

 

[GT Hawkaholic]

Bunch it up...jumbo packages with 65% run and lots of easy PA to TEs or quick outs. Daniels sucked in pass pro but had some very athletic pulls on runs

 

[YeahToast]

Having a hard time understanding why everybody is down on the Hawks over here. Yeah we are beat up bad but "thats football". People on here are expecting a loss which doesn't seem quite fair. Northwesterns offense has done nothing this year against worst defenses than ours (Mich the exception). Points are going to be hard to come by for both teams but c'mon. This is still the same NW team that got slaughtered last weekend and snuck by Ball State?

And the same Northwestern team that beat one-loss Duke and one-loss Standford, who are both ranked. This is going to be a very challenging game for the Hawks -- especially considering our injured starters -- regardless of what Northwestern did against Ball State. Personally, I'm going to be a nervous wreck for this one.
Winning on the road in a Power 5 conference is hard to do, and I think the trickle down effect of not having Ott on the DLine will be pretty apparent. Remember, not only is Ott a 3rd or 4th round draft pick, he's a set of legs that kept the backups in the rotation fresh. Now getting a pass rush becomes even more of a challenge, and that gives the LBs and DBs less margin for error.
To me, I think the difference comes down to whose QB misses fewer of the 'easy' throws and whose WRs/TEs make more of the 'difficult' catches.

 

[Auger]

We run the ball, and stop the run. It is that simple.

Here are the national ranks in:

Yards per carry allowed:
Iowa: 4th
Northwestern: 51st

Yards per carry:
Iowa: 40th
Northwestern: 76th

Given those numbers, I like the matchup (aside from injuries).

Neither team will be able to pass.

Yards per pass allowed:
NW: 3rd (wow, very very good)
Iowa: 45th

Yards per pass:
Iowa: 48th
NW: 116th (yes, 116th in the country at 5.7. Thorson's numbers are very poor and I don't think he can dink and dunk on us)

Thats what we thought about Minnesotas QB last year as well but he dinked and dunked on us all game. Northwestern has guys that can expose Iowa's edge in the pass attack add a QB that has movement like Thorson does and I wouldnt be shocked if Thorson throws for 200 yds against Iowa. Iowa gives up the short-mid range to the edge throws and without Ott the edge is going to be open for the Northwestern pass and rush.

 

[larrygreenwallswildride]

IA back 7 will be determining factor.

 

[ichawk24]

I must've been watching a totally different Minnesota game than you last year. Minnesota didn't dink and dunk anything, they killed us running on the edges (59 for 291), then Leidner went over the top, completing only 10 of 13 passes but for 138 yards and 4 TD.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400547933

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Has Northwestern played anyone with a decent passing game? I say real good balance on offense again and defense keep doin' what you do. I do think there should be some good passing opportunities set up by the run.

Stanford has shown great balance (1200 yards passing and 1000 yards rushing through 5 games).
Duke has been somewhat balanced (1400 yards passing and 1150 yards rushing through 6 games).
Michigan has been balanced (1150 yards passing and 1200 yards rushing through 6 games).

 

[Rifler]

This is the game where Wadley demonstrates that he has finally figured out how to hold onto the ball......

 

[ichawk24]

This is the game where Wadley demonstrates that he has finally figured out how to hold onto the ball......

I hope you are correct, he or Mitchell need to have a breakout.

 

[nu2u]

Difference in the game is Neiman, he is going to be asked to match up with their super backs on 1st and 2nd down until raider package on 3rd.....I will say it again, Nieman will be playing on Sunday's and his play will win this game for us, if you don't hear his name does not mean he is not impacted the games

Good point. I think BN is up to the task. Also, it was the NW game last year that Niemann blocked a punt then scored a TD IIRC. A key INT or QB sack would be nice!

This is the game where Wadley demonstrates that he has finally figured out how to hold onto the ball......

Wadley had a big game against NW last year also, the best of his career .- more than 100 yards rushing a couple TDs replacing Canzeri. It would be nice to have a repeat performance!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Maybe so, however; Nieman is the LB who is asked to be flexible to play standard OLB or detached almost like a nickel corner....Kirksey and Greenway only two that I saw who could do it better....Nieman is true soph and will be better thank Kirksey....not ready to say Greenway level yet but the potential is there

High praise! I'm excited about Niemann's upside too ... although I'd say that its a little premature to suggest that he's ahead of Kirksey. The benefit that Niemann has is that he's getting a unified message from Coach Reid. Poor Kirksey had to deal with multiple LB coaches throughout his career.

 

[milehighhawkeye24]

High praise! I'm excited about Niemann's upside too ... although I'd say that its a little premature to suggest that he's ahead of Kirksey. The benefit that Niemann has is that he's getting a unified message from Coach Reid. Poor Kirksey had to deal with multiple LB coaches throughout his career.

I said he will be ahead of Kirksey, not yet but will be. Kirksey was really really good, Greenway was great, and I think BN is really good now and I feel comfortable saying he will end up being really really really good (with a high probability of being Great) when he graduates. I have seen him make some freakishly athletic plays in the passing game, setting the edge, chasing down RB's from the backside, getting pressure on blitzes, and obviously last year on special teams.....this is why I am not too worried about recruiting rankings, we stole this kid from NIU and was a low 3 Star.....I would say his actual play for a true sophomore OLB in Iowa's scheme is more like a 5 Star....