Starting to get a clear division between top 8 and the rest of the conference but I think getting 8 in is a real stretch, given the strength of the league this year. I do think any of those 8 could win a game in the tournament but some aren't going to get a chance, so who have you got in and who's out ??
How many B1G teams make the tournament
- Thread starter lovedwatchingLester
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I think 6 max. As for the B12, they only deserve 5. If you do not finish top half of conference or a tourney winner say hello to the NIT
If it were up to me I'd toss out some of those pretenders in the Big Twelve and take eight Big Ten teams. But, I suppose six four sure, seven likely, no way the eight that they should take. Which means once again a team from the Big ten will probably win the NIT and a bunch of Big Twelve teams will "disappoint" and go home early.
Guessing Wisconsin is in need of a win in nearly all its games to get in or a real strong BTT , but they're capable. It would be really nice to put a big dent in their season on Wednesday.
A lot will be determined by how the mid-majors pan out. If everything remains chalk, and the conference winners are also the conference tournament winners, then a lot more spots will be open for the power five also rans.
Wisconsin has the issue of all the horrible non-conference losses they suffered.
Wisconsin has the issue of all the horrible non-conference losses they suffered.
I think OSU is definitely out, even with Iowa. Wisconsin and Michigan both still get Iowa, which comes with an opportunity to grab a quality win and they have better resumes than OSU.
Bottom line is we're going to be dealing with 4 hungry teams to finish the season.
Bottom line is we're going to be dealing with 4 hungry teams to finish the season.
In the latest RPI, the Big Ten's 6th, 7th, and 8th teams are Wisconsin (44th), Michigan (55th) and Ohio State (75th). In the Big 12, the RPI's are Kansas (1st), OU (3rd), WVU (15th), ISU (18th), Baylor (23rd), Texas Tech (25th), and Texas (29th).
The B10 should probably only have 5 teams in the dance....
Yeah the B12 will get 7 in and they deserve it. The question will be whether they actually do something with it unlike last year.
We will have to agree to disagree. I will openly admit to only watching limited amounts of big xii contests, but the games I have seen do not depict teams warranting special consideration for tourney selection. Texas Tech and Texas are not that much, if any, better than middle of the pack teams from other leagues. Even Baylor and West Virginia have laid some real eggs along the way lately.
What they do have though is interesting enough 'stories' to draw viewers come NCAA Tournament time. Texas has the relatively young coaching sensation. Tubby Smith is the latest version of a messiah at Tech. Couple that with some vastly overrated opinions of the big xii since before the season even started and it is not difficult to see why they might land as many teams in the dance as are being predicted now.
True but B12 has a terrific RPI because they don't have cellar dwellers like Minnesota and Rutgers pulling everyone down. Does that make them better overall? No but their resumes trounce every other conference. Every team has laid eggs along the way. IU losing to Wake, Matyland losing to Minnesota, etc. This board thinks the B12 sucks because ISU is in it. Just like ISU fans think the B10 sucks because Iowa is in it. B12 is getting 7 out of 10 teams in. B10 is getting 6 maybe 7 out of 14. Once again, the question is what they can do with it.
They've got outstanding scheduling sense that builds great RPI's. Thus, I suppose, they deserve to get more teams into the Dance and deserve what will happen to them when they get there.
A couple of remarks in response...
First, the RPI has been exposed for its faults. It can and more and more so is manipulated by teams/programs in attempts to enhance the chance to play in the postseason. To a part, however great or small, is not that what is occurring now with some of the very teams questioned from the big xii? How else do you explain a team with a current SOS at 39 [KenPom] also having an OOC schedule strength (weakness) of 332? Meanwhile, a team say like Iowa has played to the 36th best schedule (OOC 144th). All else being equal, it appears that today each team opposing TCU is playing roughly the same team as Iowa based on SOS - and to a degree RPI.
Second, ranking metrics can be flawed by preconceived notions regarding SOS, RPI, etc. The idea that the big xii is the best conference even at its lower tier simply because some algorithm might spit that out in October/November does not necessarily make it so.
The big xii has fallen into glory in spite of itself. The round robin play is a product of necessity rather than planning and sooner or later that is bound to change when either expansion or implosion of the conference comes about because of football. Ranking services prefer the totality of teams playing each other home and away as it removes some of the uncertainty in place in imbalanced scheduling. It should never, however, be mistaken as an automatic pass into being the best league simply because of the scheduling.
Hawks, terps, indy, sparty, boilers are the locks.
wisky, buckeyes, wolverines can play themselves in or out over the next 2+ weeks.
All the rest need to win the conference tourney to get in.
wisky has the most work to do to get in due to their horrid non conference.
I actually don't dispute anything you said. I merely indicated that based on metrics that the committee will use, the B12 will get 7 teams in. The fact that they all play each twice is a god send for them because they are basically guaranteed at least 12 top 50 games which is huge for SoS. Once again, whether or not they are truly representative of the league's strength will not be known until the tourney is played.
The Big 12 has 6 ranked teams but should only get 5 in? That doesn't make sense
Wisky and OSU are playing themselves in and Michigan is right there as well.
Too bad we play all 4 plus Indiana to close out the season. If we win the Big10, we would have totally earned it.
Too bad we play all 4 plus Indiana to close out the season. If we win the Big10, we would have totally earned it.
I think OSU has to win out the regular season to get a shot since they get 3 top 15 games. Their RPI is around 80 so they have some major ground to make up in a short time.
Iowa, Indiana, Maryland, MSU, Purdue are virtual locks. I think the B1G gets 7 bids.
If OSU wins out they have to get a bid. That would be 2 wins over MSU and 1 over Iowa and finish 21-10. They have the best chance to make a strong case.
If Wisc can win @Iowa or @Purdue and take care of Mich and Minn, they should be in good shape at 20-11 with a marquee road win late.
If Mich wins 2 of its last 3 with a win over Iowa, they finish 21-10.
Unfortunately, Iowa is going to be in for a fight in each of its final 4 games. 3 bubble teams looking for a late marquee win and the Indiana game could be the defacto B1G title game. This dream season could have a nightmare ending if Iowa isn't careful.
If OSU wins out they have to get a bid. That would be 2 wins over MSU and 1 over Iowa and finish 21-10. They have the best chance to make a strong case.
If Wisc can win @Iowa or @Purdue and take care of Mich and Minn, they should be in good shape at 20-11 with a marquee road win late.
If Mich wins 2 of its last 3 with a win over Iowa, they finish 21-10.
Unfortunately, Iowa is going to be in for a fight in each of its final 4 games. 3 bubble teams looking for a late marquee win and the Indiana game could be the defacto B1G title game. This dream season could have a nightmare ending if Iowa isn't careful.
It is amazing to me how Iowa's schedule has worked out. We all thought that it was heavily frontloaded, but as it turns out, due to various circumstances, the back end has proven to be just as daunting.
I dont think the Big 12 gets the pass as 'the best league' solely because of the round robin schedule... the conference has good Non-Conf wins... a huge measure by national media and the selection committee.
From ESPN-
"The Big 12 showed in nonconference play that it’s the deepest conference in the land. Entering Saturday’s challenge with the SEC, the Big 12 is 98-20 against nonconference opponents, the best winning percentage of any conference by a considerable margin.
A Big 12 representative has wins over the top team in the Big East (Oklahoma over Villanova), ACC (Texas over North Carolina) and Big Ten (Iowa State over Iowa), and the conference has a 30-17 record against BPI top 100 opponents in nonconference play.
With all 10 of its teams in the top 150 of ESPN’s BPI (including eight in the top 50), the Big 12 is the deepest conference in the country."
That is for sure. Hawks are playing for a lot as well so it should be an interesting 2 weeks to say the least. I guess thats how it goes in Feb/March
5 you are really reaching here, so the balanced schedule the Big 12 plays is not the best way to determine a champion? You would be changing your tone if the big 10 had one. It does not matter what happens in the future to conference expansion, what matter is the here and now.
Every site and network except BTN has the Big 12 as the best conference, they are, does not mean they will get a team to the final 4. The big 12 has a Kansas problem, the best team in the league has under performed in the tournament. Its as simple as that, last year, Oklahoma made a nice run, Baylor has made runs in the past few years as well as ISU in the past.
Its all about your guards, playing well and the matchups, ISU had a good shot a couple of years ago and lost George to the broken foot and got beat by UCONN. I would love to have played that game with George on the floor instead of him on the bench in a walking boot.
Their record was built on a house of cards. Something like the 320th ranked OOC.
