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How scoring stats ignore the potential of Iowa football, ahead of the Big Ten Championship

binsfeldcyhawk2

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There’s a famous Peanuts cartoon with Schroeder reciting a long list of statistics, confirming the hopeless futility of the neighborhood baseball team. Finally, poor Charlie Brown says he has heard enough.

“Tell your statistics to shut up.”

Give that kid an Iowa Hawkeyes shirt this week.

The numbers say Iowa is a sure goner against mighty Michigan. The numbers say the Hawkeyes might be the most unusual team to ever play in a power league championship game, with an injury-battered offense that on most Saturdays wouldn’t harm a fly.

Iowa has 10 wins this season, but only 20 offensive touchdowns.

Iowa won the Big Ten West with only 117 first downs in nine conference games. That's 23 fewer than anyone else in the league and 54 fewer than Indiana, who went 1-8 in Big Ten play. Iowa has punted 80 times this year. accumulating 847 more yards punting than rushing and passing combined.



Iowa’s quarterbacks have thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.

Nineteen percent of Iowa’s total points this season — 41 of the 216 — came on one Saturday afternoon against Western Michigan.

Iowa went 7-2 in conference play, barely outscoring its nine foes by a total of 22 points. Michigan’s point differential in its Big Ten games was 248.


Iowa has scored a total of 216 points this season. Michigan has scored 244 – before halftime.

Iowa scored six touchdowns the entire month of November. Michigan scored five touchdowns on the first Saturday of November.

Iowa has converted fewer than one in three third downs.

Counting a punt return and interception return, Iowa has scored a total of 22 touchdowns. Michigan has scored 59.

There are 130 teams listed in the FBS statistical rankings. Iowa is 130th in total offense. And yet, the Hawkeyes will be in Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday night because of one simple football law: You always have a chance if the other team has a hard time getting into the end zone. And Iowa’s opponents certainly do.


The offensive numbers of woe have been so conspicuous, that some others have been overlooked.

Iowa is giving up 12.2 points a game, fourth best in the nation. If it stays that way it would be the best such total for the Hawkeyes in 42 years.

Iowa’s defense has scored more safeties (three) than the opponents have scored rushing touchdowns. They’ve managed two. All season. The first by two yards, the other by one.

Iowa has a 26-year-old senior from Australia who didn’t even punt in high school but now might be the best college punter in America. When Tory Taylor isn’t sending boomers into the Iowa sky — 47.7-yard average, 31 of more than 50 yards and five 60-plus — he’s pinning opponents deep with precision. He’s had 29 punts downed inside the 20, 11 inside the 10, six inside the 5 and only five touchbacks. He is a massive weapon when it’s a field position game, which is nearly a weekly event for the Hawkeyes.


Iowa’s defense has allowed three touchdowns in its last six games and 12 all season, plus one on a fumble return. This basically means Hawkeye opponents have reached the end zone once every 55.4 minutes of clock time.

Iowa averages just over three penalties a game.

Defense and special teams have allowed the Hawkeyes to become specialists in surviving games with lacrosse scores — 10-7, 15-13, 13-10. “We’ve been playing for our lives every week,” coach Kirk Ferentz said. Nobody in the FBS had won four games in a season when scoring 15 or fewer points in 31 years.

“You play to your strengths like you do any season,” Ferentz said. “You kind of play the hand that’s dealt you and try to play as smart as you can. But none of that works if you don’t have the right guys.”

In other words, Iowa gets this far with grinders, not blue chippers. “If you look at our best players historically, not many of them showed up in limousines at our place,” Ferentz said. “Most of them drove in, in a used car, a clunker, that type of thing.

“We’ve done pretty well with guys like that.”

Still, to be tied for 121st in the nation in scoring and still advance to a Big Ten title game is a football marvel. Starting at the bottom of the national scoring rankings, the lowest nine teams are a combined 24-84. Then there’s Iowa at 10-2. The Hawkeyes are the only team in the bottom 28 with a winning record.

Conventional wisdom and the oddsmakers are expecting a thumping Saturday night. The Wolverines are favored by more than three touchdowns. Much of their season was a joyride. Plus coach Jim Harbaugh will be back from suspension, perhaps in time for Michigan to complete its first Big Ten title three-peat in three decades.


Still, if the Iowa defense can keep the score down the way it has against nearly everyone else . . .


And if Michigan would have an Ohio State hangover . . .

And if the Wolverines make a couple of mistakes and give the Hawkeyes a short field . . .

Then maybe Saturday night gets interesting. Ferentz has been around the Big Ten block, his 25 years the longest active tenure at one school in the FBS. He has won more Big Ten games than any coach in history not named Woody Hayes or Bo Schembechler.

“We’ve been here before, and we’ve actually won a couple of games like this in the last 25 years,” he said. “Anything’s possible in sports. I think we’ve all seen that.”

One last ominous number. Since the Big Ten went to East and West divisions in 2014, the East is 9-0 in this game by an average winning margin of more than 20 points. Michigan and Iowa met two years ago and it ended 49-3.

Any response, Hawkeyes?

Right. Tell the statistics to shut up.
 
giphy.gif
 
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Thanks OP, good read. The thing that is concerning to me is that the Ferentz formula for winning does not work effectively against elite teams and never really has. I have little hope for a win Saturday.

You could argue that over the years, how many elite teams has Iowa played. Maybe not all that many when you look at the final rankings every year.

USC in 2003 Rose Bowl: 17-38
Stanford in 2016 Rose Bowl: 16-45
Michigan in 2022 BTCG: 3-42
Ohio St in 2022 reg season: 10-54
Michigan in 2023 BTCG: ?

Go Hawks.
 
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Well, you have to give them points for trying to drum up interest in the game. If the game is 7-0 at halftime people will start to pay much closer attention to the game.
 
There’s a famous Peanuts cartoon with Schroeder reciting a long list of statistics, confirming the hopeless futility of the neighborhood baseball team. Finally, poor Charlie Brown says he has heard enough.

“Tell your statistics to shut up.”

Give that kid an Iowa Hawkeyes shirt this week.

The numbers say Iowa is a sure goner against mighty Michigan. The numbers say the Hawkeyes might be the most unusual team to ever play in a power league championship game, with an injury-battered offense that on most Saturdays wouldn’t harm a fly.

Iowa has 10 wins this season, but only 20 offensive touchdowns.

Iowa won the Big Ten West with only 117 first downs in nine conference games. That's 23 fewer than anyone else in the league and 54 fewer than Indiana, who went 1-8 in Big Ten play. Iowa has punted 80 times this year. accumulating 847 more yards punting than rushing and passing combined.



Iowa’s quarterbacks have thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.

Nineteen percent of Iowa’s total points this season — 41 of the 216 — came on one Saturday afternoon against Western Michigan.

Iowa went 7-2 in conference play, barely outscoring its nine foes by a total of 22 points. Michigan’s point differential in its Big Ten games was 248.


Iowa has scored a total of 216 points this season. Michigan has scored 244 – before halftime.

Iowa scored six touchdowns the entire month of November. Michigan scored five touchdowns on the first Saturday of November.

Iowa has converted fewer than one in three third downs.

Counting a punt return and interception return, Iowa has scored a total of 22 touchdowns. Michigan has scored 59.

There are 130 teams listed in the FBS statistical rankings. Iowa is 130th in total offense. And yet, the Hawkeyes will be in Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday night because of one simple football law: You always have a chance if the other team has a hard time getting into the end zone. And Iowa’s opponents certainly do.


The offensive numbers of woe have been so conspicuous, that some others have been overlooked.

Iowa is giving up 12.2 points a game, fourth best in the nation. If it stays that way it would be the best such total for the Hawkeyes in 42 years.

Iowa’s defense has scored more safeties (three) than the opponents have scored rushing touchdowns. They’ve managed two. All season. The first by two yards, the other by one.

Iowa has a 26-year-old senior from Australia who didn’t even punt in high school but now might be the best college punter in America. When Tory Taylor isn’t sending boomers into the Iowa sky — 47.7-yard average, 31 of more than 50 yards and five 60-plus — he’s pinning opponents deep with precision. He’s had 29 punts downed inside the 20, 11 inside the 10, six inside the 5 and only five touchbacks. He is a massive weapon when it’s a field position game, which is nearly a weekly event for the Hawkeyes.


Iowa’s defense has allowed three touchdowns in its last six games and 12 all season, plus one on a fumble return. This basically means Hawkeye opponents have reached the end zone once every 55.4 minutes of clock time.

Iowa averages just over three penalties a game.

Defense and special teams have allowed the Hawkeyes to become specialists in surviving games with lacrosse scores — 10-7, 15-13, 13-10. “We’ve been playing for our lives every week,” coach Kirk Ferentz said. Nobody in the FBS had won four games in a season when scoring 15 or fewer points in 31 years.

“You play to your strengths like you do any season,” Ferentz said. “You kind of play the hand that’s dealt you and try to play as smart as you can. But none of that works if you don’t have the right guys.”

In other words, Iowa gets this far with grinders, not blue chippers. “If you look at our best players historically, not many of them showed up in limousines at our place,” Ferentz said. “Most of them drove in, in a used car, a clunker, that type of thing.

“We’ve done pretty well with guys like that.”

Still, to be tied for 121st in the nation in scoring and still advance to a Big Ten title game is a football marvel. Starting at the bottom of the national scoring rankings, the lowest nine teams are a combined 24-84. Then there’s Iowa at 10-2. The Hawkeyes are the only team in the bottom 28 with a winning record.

Conventional wisdom and the oddsmakers are expecting a thumping Saturday night. The Wolverines are favored by more than three touchdowns. Much of their season was a joyride. Plus coach Jim Harbaugh will be back from suspension, perhaps in time for Michigan to complete its first Big Ten title three-peat in three decades.


Still, if the Iowa defense can keep the score down the way it has against nearly everyone else . . .


And if Michigan would have an Ohio State hangover . . .

And if the Wolverines make a couple of mistakes and give the Hawkeyes a short field . . .

Then maybe Saturday night gets interesting. Ferentz has been around the Big Ten block, his 25 years the longest active tenure at one school in the FBS. He has won more Big Ten games than any coach in history not named Woody Hayes or Bo Schembechler.

“We’ve been here before, and we’ve actually won a couple of games like this in the last 25 years,” he said. “Anything’s possible in sports. I think we’ve all seen that.”

One last ominous number. Since the Big Ten went to East and West divisions in 2014, the East is 9-0 in this game by an average winning margin of more than 20 points. Michigan and Iowa met two years ago and it ended 49-3.

Any response, Hawkeyes?

Right. Tell the statistics to shut up.
They've never won a game like this in 25 years. Thats not true.
 
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Thanks OP, good read. The thing that is concerning to me is that the Ferentz formula for winning does not work effectively against elite teams and never really has. I have little hope for a win Saturday.

You could argue that over the years, how many elite teams has Iowa played. Maybe not all that many when you look at the final rankings every year.

USC in 2003 Rose Bowl: 17-38
Stanford in 2016 Rose Bowl: 16-45
Michigan in 2022 BTCG: 3-42
Ohio St in 2022 reg season: 10-54
Michigan in 2023 BTCG: ?

Go Hawks.
This is correct, in most circumstances a top 5 team is going to have an offense good enough to score points on our defense, even as good as it is. To beat those teams you have to be able to maintain possession of the ball and keep them from having opportunities to score.
 
There’s a famous Peanuts cartoon with Schroeder reciting a long list of statistics, confirming the hopeless futility of the neighborhood baseball team. Finally, poor Charlie Brown says he has heard enough.

“Tell your statistics to shut up.”

Give that kid an Iowa Hawkeyes shirt this week.

The numbers say Iowa is a sure goner against mighty Michigan. The numbers say the Hawkeyes might be the most unusual team to ever play in a power league championship game, with an injury-battered offense that on most Saturdays wouldn’t harm a fly.

Iowa has 10 wins this season, but only 20 offensive touchdowns.

Iowa won the Big Ten West with only 117 first downs in nine conference games. That's 23 fewer than anyone else in the league and 54 fewer than Indiana, who went 1-8 in Big Ten play. Iowa has punted 80 times this year. accumulating 847 more yards punting than rushing and passing combined.



Iowa’s quarterbacks have thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns.

Nineteen percent of Iowa’s total points this season — 41 of the 216 — came on one Saturday afternoon against Western Michigan.

Iowa went 7-2 in conference play, barely outscoring its nine foes by a total of 22 points. Michigan’s point differential in its Big Ten games was 248.


Iowa has scored a total of 216 points this season. Michigan has scored 244 – before halftime.

Iowa scored six touchdowns the entire month of November. Michigan scored five touchdowns on the first Saturday of November.

Iowa has converted fewer than one in three third downs.

Counting a punt return and interception return, Iowa has scored a total of 22 touchdowns. Michigan has scored 59.

There are 130 teams listed in the FBS statistical rankings. Iowa is 130th in total offense. And yet, the Hawkeyes will be in Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday night because of one simple football law: You always have a chance if the other team has a hard time getting into the end zone. And Iowa’s opponents certainly do.


The offensive numbers of woe have been so conspicuous, that some others have been overlooked.

Iowa is giving up 12.2 points a game, fourth best in the nation. If it stays that way it would be the best such total for the Hawkeyes in 42 years.

Iowa’s defense has scored more safeties (three) than the opponents have scored rushing touchdowns. They’ve managed two. All season. The first by two yards, the other by one.

Iowa has a 26-year-old senior from Australia who didn’t even punt in high school but now might be the best college punter in America. When Tory Taylor isn’t sending boomers into the Iowa sky — 47.7-yard average, 31 of more than 50 yards and five 60-plus — he’s pinning opponents deep with precision. He’s had 29 punts downed inside the 20, 11 inside the 10, six inside the 5 and only five touchbacks. He is a massive weapon when it’s a field position game, which is nearly a weekly event for the Hawkeyes.


Iowa’s defense has allowed three touchdowns in its last six games and 12 all season, plus one on a fumble return. This basically means Hawkeye opponents have reached the end zone once every 55.4 minutes of clock time.

Iowa averages just over three penalties a game.

Defense and special teams have allowed the Hawkeyes to become specialists in surviving games with lacrosse scores — 10-7, 15-13, 13-10. “We’ve been playing for our lives every week,” coach Kirk Ferentz said. Nobody in the FBS had won four games in a season when scoring 15 or fewer points in 31 years.

“You play to your strengths like you do any season,” Ferentz said. “You kind of play the hand that’s dealt you and try to play as smart as you can. But none of that works if you don’t have the right guys.”

In other words, Iowa gets this far with grinders, not blue chippers. “If you look at our best players historically, not many of them showed up in limousines at our place,” Ferentz said. “Most of them drove in, in a used car, a clunker, that type of thing.

“We’ve done pretty well with guys like that.”

Still, to be tied for 121st in the nation in scoring and still advance to a Big Ten title game is a football marvel. Starting at the bottom of the national scoring rankings, the lowest nine teams are a combined 24-84. Then there’s Iowa at 10-2. The Hawkeyes are the only team in the bottom 28 with a winning record.

Conventional wisdom and the oddsmakers are expecting a thumping Saturday night. The Wolverines are favored by more than three touchdowns. Much of their season was a joyride. Plus coach Jim Harbaugh will be back from suspension, perhaps in time for Michigan to complete its first Big Ten title three-peat in three decades.


Still, if the Iowa defense can keep the score down the way it has against nearly everyone else . . .


And if Michigan would have an Ohio State hangover . . .

And if the Wolverines make a couple of mistakes and give the Hawkeyes a short field . . .

Then maybe Saturday night gets interesting. Ferentz has been around the Big Ten block, his 25 years the longest active tenure at one school in the FBS. He has won more Big Ten games than any coach in history not named Woody Hayes or Bo Schembechler.

“We’ve been here before, and we’ve actually won a couple of games like this in the last 25 years,” he said. “Anything’s possible in sports. I think we’ve all seen that.”

One last ominous number. Since the Big Ten went to East and West divisions in 2014, the East is 9-0 in this game by an average winning margin of more than 20 points. Michigan and Iowa met two years ago and it ended 49-3.

Any response, Hawkeyes?

Right. Tell the statistics to shut up.
One problem with your equation and stats. We ran out of Nebraska's and Rutger teams and won't be facing such a team. Time for idiots to see why you need an offense.
 
This is correct, in most circumstances a top 5 team is going to have an offense good enough to score points on our defense, even as good as it is. To beat those teams you have to be able to maintain possession of the ball and keep them from having opportunities to score.
But Phil is watching film and doing his evil laugh!
 
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Thanks OP, good read. The thing that is concerning to me is that the Ferentz formula for winning does not work effectively against elite teams and never really has. I have little hope for a win Saturday.

You could argue that over the years, how many elite teams has Iowa played. Maybe not all that many when you look at the final rankings every year.

USC in 2003 Rose Bowl: 17-38
Stanford in 2016 Rose Bowl: 16-45
Michigan in 2022 BTCG: 3-42
Ohio St in 2022 reg season: 10-54
Michigan in 2023 BTCG: ?

Go Hawks.
Pretty selective list.

Also...if you're going to take final ranking as a barometer it pretty much eliminates the top 10 teams Iowa BEAT.

It was UCLA in the 1986 Rose Bowl FWIW...

LSU in the 2005 Cap 1 bowl.

#2 PSU in 2008

#2 Michigan in 2016

#4? OSU in 2017 ended the season 12-2.

GTech was ranked #9 going into the 2010 Orange bowl.
 
Pretty selective list.

Also...if you're going to take final ranking as a barometer it pretty much eliminates the top 10 teams Iowa BEAT.

It was UCLA in the 1986 Rose Bowl FWIW...

LSU in the 2005 Cap 1 bowl.

#2 PSU in 2008

#2 Michigan in 2016

#4? OSU in 2017 ended the season 12-2.

GTech was ranked #9 going into the 2010 Orange bowl.
UCLA 1986 Rose Bowl?
 
It doesn’t matter how well the defense and special teams play if the offense doesn’t score, as in the Penn State game.
 
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