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Hurricane Milton reaches Category 5 strength on approach to Florida

Damn...you guys excel at the self-own today. Let's posit on the warmer pre-human Earth there were massive hurricanes that developed in days to veritable Cat 6 status? There were massive carnivorous dinosaurs roaming the landscape then, as well, You want to bring them back, too, or just the superstorms that will devastate the country costing hundreds of billions of dollars...each?
Geologically, we’re coming off bottom temps.

A simple reversion to mean is beyond all apocalyptic scenarios.

I’m going to take hurricanes over glaciers in Iowa, even if mankind co-existed with the latter.
 
Damn...you guys excel at the self-own today. Let's posit on the warmer pre-human Earth there were massive hurricanes that developed in days to veritable Cat 6 status? There were massive carnivorous dinosaurs roaming the landscape then, as well, You want to bring them back, too, or just the superstorms that will devastate the country costing hundreds of billions of dollars...each?
The plutonomy will be fine. Plutocrats and big corporations are the dinosaurs of our era.
 
Generally speaking, a storm can't maintain that level for long because the eye gets so small it chokes off the hot air exhaust and the eye wall weakens. What you'll often see is the development of a new outer eye wall that will then start to take over but - usually - the storm weakens as that happens. Gilbert was a storm that kind of defied that probability - when it hit the Yucatan back in '88 there was a Cat 4 inner eye wall and a Cat 3 outer eyewall...a tropical two-fer. 😕
This is the correct answer. Strong hurricanes go thru eye wall replacement cycles. Plus there is some forecasted southwesterly shear that may weaken it slightly. I guessing it may arrive a bit stronger as a 4 when it makes landfall . Anyhow it may grow larger and affect more people. Take it seriously
 
Geologically, we’re coming off bottom temps.

A simple reversion to mean is beyond all apocalyptic scenarios.

I’m going to take hurricanes over glaciers in Iowa, even if mankind co-existed with the latter.
WTF are you talking about? The only historical climactic “mean” that matters is that in which human civilization has evolved. Five degrees warmer will be apocalyptic for that civilization.
 
Do you presume it happened during the time temps were higher? Because that’s most of the time things have been crawling this rock.

2300-timeline-topper.jpg

This is the logic of the simple minded
 
Generally speaking, a storm can't maintain that level for long because the eye gets so small it chokes off the hot air exhaust and the eye wall weakens. What you'll often see is the development of a new outer eye wall that will then start to take over but - usually - the storm weakens as that happens. Gilbert was a storm that kind of defied that probability - when it hit the Yucatan back in '88 there was a Cat 4 inner eye wall and a Cat 3 outer eyewall...a tropical two-fer. 😕
The latest discussion agrees with you

 
WTF are you talking about? The only historical climactic “mean” that matters is that in which human civilization has evolved.

To you a return to average temperatures and the lush natural world that flourished under them is an apocalypse.
I disagree.

Five degrees warmer will be apocalyptic for that civilization.
What proof is there of that?
Your appreciation of mankind's adaptability is as low as your appreciation for the value people place on beach front views.
 
To you a return to average temperatures and the lush natural world that flourished under them is an apocalypse.
I disagree.


What proof is there of that?
Your appreciation of mankind's adaptability is as low as your appreciation for the value people place on beach front views.
So ignorant. The issue is the trend and the results from continued warming. If we could hold everything as it is right now we would be OK but that will require immediate actions as science has been telling us. It's like a large yacht approaching a dock with the expert sailor saying "we have to drop anchor" and the ignorant owner saying "full speed ahead".

While the early Holocene was warmer than the pre-industrial era, modern-day global temperatures have been rising rapidly, and today's global temperature is roughly equivalent to the warmest periods of the HTM. Current warming trends driven by human activity may soon surpass Holocene warmth levels.

In short, the Earth was relatively warm during the dawn of civilization, though modern warming driven by anthropogenic factors has brought today's climate close to or above those levels.
 
To you a return to average temperatures and the lush natural world that flourished under them is an apocalypse.
I disagree.
We’ll, you’re an idiot sooooo…
What proof is there of that?
Your appreciation of mankind's adaptability is as low as your appreciation for the value people place on beach front views.
And here’s the proof. smh

Forty percent of the world’s population lives on the coasts. In cities mostly. How do you propose “adapting” NYC or Bangkok or Amsterdam to meters of sea level rise? We can “adapt” by moving. Tens of millions of people. To where?

How will the world’s food crops adapt to climates that prevent their growth? We can “adapt” by eating something else? What? Grown where?

How will life in the ocean’s adapt to higher acidity? When the plankton can’t use calcium to build shells, it’ll die. And so will a very large percentage of life in the oceans for which plankton forms the base of the food chain. We’ll “adapt” by…not eating seafood, I suppose.

Humans will adapt. Civilization probably won’t.
 
To you a return to average temperatures and the lush natural world that flourished under them is an apocalypse.
I disagree.


What proof is there of that?
Your appreciation of mankind's adaptability is as low as your appreciation for the value people place on beach front views.

It's not the overall change, it's the rate of the change that's the problem....will we adapt when the next glacial stage hits? Sure...but the cost is greater if it happens in 200 years versus 5000 years.

Like I said it's simple minded, two dimensional thinking
 
We’ll, you’re an idiot sooooo…

Was it more lush when it was hotter?
Science knows, do you?

And here’s the proof. smh
Forty percent of the world’s population lives on the coasts. In cities mostly.

That's because of trade, not because of the coastal climate.

How do you propose “adapting” NYC or Bangkok or Amsterdam to meters of sea level rise? We can “adapt” by moving. Tens of millions of people. To where?

Inland.
You think the coasts of today will be the coasts forever (but for mankind)?
How did the Channel ports look before the Channel existed?
Brighton, Plymouth, South Hampton, etc. are artifacts of our current time.

68wOjsZ.jpeg


In the past the coasts were not where they are today, in the future the coasts will not be where they are today.
The only constant is that it changes.

How will the world’s food crops adapt to climates that prevent their growth? We can “adapt” by eating something else? What? Grown where?

Mankind will adapt them.
Evolution does it too, but we're a lot faster than Mother Nature nowadays at creating strains for different climates.

How will life in the ocean’s adapt to higher acidity? When the plankton can’t use calcium to build shells, it’ll die. And so will a very large percentage of life in the oceans for which plankton forms the base of the food chain. We’ll “adapt” by…not eating seafood, I suppose.
Humans will adapt. Civilization probably won’t.

Were there shellfish 16 million years ago when CO2 was estimated at 480ppm?
Were there any shellfish in the Ordovician period, when CO2 was estimated over 3000 ppm?
 
It's not the overall change, it's the rate of the change that's the problem....will we adapt when the next glacial stage hits? Sure...but the cost is greater if it happens in 200 years versus 5000 years.

Like I said it's simple minded, two dimensional thinking
The ice age should be prevented if all possible, right?

Can you plant corn on ice?

Imagine being able to hike the Keys like the Appalachian Trail, tho...

wjlb9de.png
 
Was it more lush when it was hotter?
Science knows, do you?



That's because of trade, not because of the coastal climate.



Inland.
You think the coasts of today will be the coasts forever (but for mankind)?
How did the Channel ports look before the Channel existed?
Brighton, Plymouth, South Hampton, etc. are artifacts of our current time.

68wOjsZ.jpeg


In the past the coasts were not where they are today, in the future the coasts will not be where they are today.
The only constant is that it changes.



Mankind will adapt them.
Evolution does it too, but we're a lot faster than Mother Nature nowadays at creating strains for different climates.



Were there shellfish 16 million years ago when CO2 was estimated at 480ppm?
Were there any shellfish in the Ordovician period, when CO2 was estimated over 3000 ppm?
FFS.
 
The ice age should be prevented if all possible, right?

Can you plant corn on ice?

Imagine being able to hike the Keys like the Appalachian Trail, tho...

wjlb9de.png

No dude, with Complex Adaptive Systems (e.g. Climate) it's always best to not perturb them in the first place. Could we prevent the next glacial stage? Probably not, but if we did it would probably leave the Earth unlivable. Or the next glacial stage could runaway leading to a snowball Earth.

Two dimensional thinking
 
Damn...you guys excel at the self-own today. Let's posit on the warmer pre-human Earth there were massive hurricanes that developed in days to veritable Cat 6 status? There were massive carnivorous dinosaurs roaming the landscape then, as well, You want to bring them back, too, or just the superstorms that will devastate the country costing hundreds of billions of dollars...each?
What's amazing is they look at that graph and are not scared completely shitless by that final tick upward of about 3 degrees, which I'm betting if you zoomed in would show it has happened in the last 200 years.
 
We really don't know what happened before we had weather satellites, which has been my point all along.

Anyway, seems like Milton is going to blow his wad early and wear itself out before getting to Florida.
You have a mouse in your pocket?

People much smarter than you do, indeed, know "what happened" before we had weather satellites.
 
The more I think about it, I think he's just doing it to sound smart and it works until he posts stupid shit like this not knowing that some of us have not one, but two degrees in the environmental sciences.
He posts a lot of words that say nothing intelligent.
 
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No dude, with Complex Adaptive Systems (e.g. Climate) it's always best to not perturb them in the first place.

The entire history is one of change.
We're aware the planet has been much warmer for most of its existence, certainly during the existence of life.
We know that during those periods life stretched closer to the poles.
Why is that, a reversion to mean, now considered an inhospitable planet?
 
The entire history is one of change.
We're aware the planet has been much warmer for most of its existence, certainly during the existence of life.
We know that during those periods life stretched closer to the poles.
Why is that, a reversion to mean, now considered an inhospitable planet?
Because that was before modern civilization.

JFC
 
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The entire history is one of change.
We're aware the planet has been much warmer for most of its existence, certainly during the existence of life.
We know that during those periods life stretched closer to the poles.
Why is that, a reversion to mean, now considered an inhospitable planet?

That should not excuse our perturbations of GAIA....holy fvck. Our species does not deserve this planet with our disrespect and egocentrism.
 
Damn...you guys excel at the self-own today. Let's posit on the warmer pre-human Earth there were massive hurricanes that developed in days to veritable Cat 6 status? There were massive carnivorous dinosaurs roaming the landscape then, as well, You want to bring them back, too, or just the superstorms that will devastate the country costing hundreds of billions of dollars...each?
I'm not gonna lie. I think this would be really really cool.
 
The entire history is one of change.
We're aware the planet has been much warmer for most of its existence, certainly during the existence of life.
We know that during those periods life stretched closer to the poles.
Why is that, a reversion to mean, now considered an inhospitable planet?
I know you think you're brilliant and can learn enough to be an expert just by browsing google, but this is stupid.
Yes, the history has been one of change, but what is important to human civilization is rate of change. We're smart, we adapt. But at some point we can't adapt as quickly as the changes without tremendous costs to lives and property. That's why there is concern. Can we adapt to the land best suited for agriculture to move 10 degrees north? Sure, will it cause chaos if it's done as quickly as it's going to? Absolutely.
 
To you a return to average temperatures and the lush natural world that flourished under them is an apocalypse.
I disagree.


What proof is there of that?
Your appreciation of mankind's adaptability is as low as your appreciation for the value people place on beach front views.
Man demands proof of events that haven't happened and relies on superstitious belief to justify not getting informed.
 
Yes, the history has been one of change, but what is important to human civilization is rate of change. We're smart, we adapt. But at some point we can't adapt as quickly as the changes without tremendous costs to lives and property. That's why there is concern. Can we adapt to the land best suited for agriculture to move 10 degrees north? Sure, will it cause chaos if it's done as quickly as it's going to? Absolutely.

Chaos is the norm, what we need are systems most adaptable to that fact.

What did Miami look like 150 years ago?
Can’t imagine how different it will be in another 150 years.
Might be gone entirely.
 
Chaos is the norm, what we need are systems most adaptable to that fact.

What did Miami look like 150 years ago?
Can’t imagine how different it will be in another 150 years.
Might be gone entirely.
Tell me how europe will adapt to being 5-15 degrees celsius colder if/when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation stops?
 
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