That is giving her either Iowa or Nevada, maintaining Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, and stealing Georgia. I'll concede North Carolina, Penn, and Ohio. She still wins.
I'm predicting 273 - 264 Harris.
- Thread starter Jimmy McGill
- Start date
She's going to win every state in a landslide.
In before Huey says it.
In before Huey says it.
It will be interesting to see how everything unfolds as I don’t think we are going to see the early projections for a candidate until a majority of votes are in like we have in the past. Networks wanna be the first to declare a winner for a certain state but think there will be hesitancy to make the call in one direction or the other. No clue how this is gonna go.
I'm predicting tree fiddy to 69 for Harris, with Texas, Hawaii and Alaska abstaining.
I'm predicting one of the largest gaps in popular vote tallies of all time........
I also think Trump will declare victory by 6pm central time tonight.........followed by several days of confusion
I also think Trump will declare victory by 6pm central time tonight.........followed by several days of confusion
Good on Jimmy for starting the "official" prediction thread. I'm going Harris 276-262, with her winning MI, WI, NV, and PA of the battlegrounds.
(Interesting note -- the last run of both Silver and 538 flipped it to a total coin toss with harris at like 50.05% and trump at like 49.95%)
BTW, one of the more hilarious things about the 538 model is you can see some of the really weird outlier simulations, like 535-3 for Harris.
(Interesting note -- the last run of both Silver and 538 flipped it to a total coin toss with harris at like 50.05% and trump at like 49.95%)
BTW, one of the more hilarious things about the 538 model is you can see some of the really weird outlier simulations, like 535-3 for Harris.
With the new rules/laws now, Georgia will be declared by 8 or 9 p.m. North Carolina shortly thereafter.
If Harris wins Penn.....I think it is over unless I'm dead wrong on counting on Georgia.
I've seen nothing to make me believe Harris has a chance in Zona or Ohio. Nevada and the Democratic machine of former days keeps that in the game, but I don't see it yet.
Wisconsin results will be skewed early on because Milwaukee's votes are counted last.
Wisconsin results will be skewed early on because Milwaukee's votes are counted last.
As I've been saying for months, he/she who wins PA will ultimately win this election.
Hit my polling place at 0600 - a dozen or two people there - and voted as I said I would. Wore my "I'm too old for this shit" hat, which people seemed to like. Hardest race was school board. Four indistinguishable candidates for 3 slots. Every ****ing one of them has a background in 'counseling' (which is to say, no real medical training) and none of them talked about...education. Voted for the black incumbent lady who had a nice matter-of-fact way about her, the lady whose children made lots of signs for her around town, and the lady who owns the local burger place that serves french fries cooked in beef tallow -- as these seemed to be as good a differentiators as any for me. It's a shame that our public schools have basically just become a locus for social service programs.
My niece, a local TV reporter in Cincy, is currently at JD Vance's polling place hoping for a live shot.
Kins of blows that you have school board elections on an "election" year. In Iowa, we do them in off years; which IMHO is a better approach.
As i understand it (having just moved here), they're staggered terms, with this year being a little different as it's the first year they're elected following some sort of referendum a year or two ago. VA's a little weird in that we elect our governor the year after the president, and our other statewide offices in other than presidential years.
Maybe, maybe not. My scenario has her winning without Penn. Trying to do a glass half full / half empty thing. If she gets Penn, it is a blowout.
I think at the end of the day the story is going to be the better half (female) vote. I think it puts her over the top.
Trumps incel vote won't show up
Too busy rubbing one out.
I think at the end of the day the story is going to be the better half (female) vote. I think it puts her over the top.
Trumps incel vote won't show up
Too busy rubbing one out.
This. The young men and old men won't show up today if they haven't already voted. At least I don't think they will.
It is time for someone other than a white man to hold the job.
SURPRISE ,surprise, women rights have moved to the front in Penna, sorry economy, you're second.
I knew someone would point that out. I'll concede we have had 1 POTUS out 46 that was of color. Never had a woman in charge. UK has had 3. India 1. Pakistan 1, pretty much all of proper Europe.
Well, I will say that after I voted I went to a local coffee shop and chatted with a trump voter who was a nice enough fellow (helped the baker transport his wares into the shop) but a little "off". His grandfather had been captain of CV6.
But to your point, I tend to agree that the early/day of voting is going to be something of a zero sum game for Trump.
I'm not saying to vote for her because she is a woman. I'm saying there is large section of men in this country that would never vote for a woman
Well you should have left the "white" man part out Jimmy
Yeah. That is a tough call. My experience with NW IA is you aren't going to change minds. Plus there are very few votes up there.
Yes. But cricket is also popular in India, Pakistan, and the UK. Which is dumb.
So that’s my rebuttal.
Except with a Kamala win we get both. Dems perform better than Rs time and time again with the economy and unemployment.
GOP is historically worse about spending money and cutting taxes, which has always let to high inflation for the poor/middle class, higher housing costs.........not to mention the National Debt.
Yep cuz she might push the button during that time of the month!
The black man had his 8 years. It's time for another 200 years of old white dudes. We'll consider someone else at that time.
Lets not start having fights quite yet. Or at all.
I just want this to be a prediction thread with analysis of how things are playing out / will. Basically a political junkie thread. Not a partisan thread.
I'll be the first to make my calls, against any candidate if I interpret the data in my train of thought.
I just want this to be a prediction thread with analysis of how things are playing out / will. Basically a political junkie thread. Not a partisan thread.
I'll be the first to make my calls, against any candidate if I interpret the data in my train of thought.
It would be nice to have at least one Gen Xer before a string of Harry Potter fans in vintage 80’s clothing asking to only work 20 hours a week to accommodate their passion side hustle.
For example. Given the data out there....It looks like Iowa is going to have two junior Dem Reps. Meeks is done, and I think it would take every single person in SW Iowa to come out to vote for Nunn for him to retain his seat. They are too busy feeding the hogs today in the rain.
I'll defer to the other threads to provide for the insults/opinions. Predictions, data, info.
I don't know, taking blankets and stuffed animals with us to work seems like a pretty good deal.
I feel like some of the aggregate "polling" just results in everything moving to the middle. It becomes useless. I wonder when it becomes less about prediction and more about producing a desired middle ground result.
