Initial B1G Bracket Data Thoughts

[LutherAce]

If everyone wrestles to seeds, with no bonus points: (Brackets with drawn in wrestlers account for .5 a point in some brackets, not included here)

PSU 137.5*
OSU 109.5
IOWA 108
NEB 87.5
MINN 79.5
ILL 73.5
WIS 61.5
MICH 52.5
RUT 51.5
IND 31.5
MD 25
PUR 14.5
MSU 10
NU 8

* - This includes Suriano wrestling to #2. If he MFF out, then the total drops 15 points to 122.5 and raises NEB to 90

This is based on total points scored in this order of ranking:
19
15
12.5
11.5
9
8
5.5
4.5

 

[LaxHawk174]

I think Gilman wrestles to seed

Clark above seed

Carton above seed

Sorensen to seed

Kemerer to seed

Gunther to seed

Meyer above seed

Brooks to seed

Wilcke above seed

Holloway to seed.

In addition to the four guys above wrestling above seed, we need bonus points, and everyone else wrestling to seed to have a shot at the upset. Especially if Suriano doesn't win any matches for them at B1G's.

 

[johnbeerpong]

I just cant see Iowa over preforming this weekend. Until they prove to me they can peak for the postseason I have just taught myself to temper expectations. When was the last time they exceeded expectations? Without looking I cant remember a single year in they did in the last 8.

Dont forget that Iowa has very little room for improvement this year.

Gilman can only equal his seed

Clark could improve, but he is banged up and nobody knows how his shoulder will hold up through 2-3 tough matches

Carton maybe has the highest ceiling from where he is seeded, but even with that a finish above 6 isnt guaranteed

Sorensen is the #2 seed and hes almost a lock to do no better than that. Not to mention he will have a tough semifinal match

Kemerer is in the exact same situation as Sorensen. No way is he beating Nolf and he will have an extremely tough semi

Gunther is the #5 and has been controlled or worked by everyone above him, so he only can wrestle to seed

Meyer might have more room for improvement than Carton, but if he is the guy you are banking on then you have more stones than I do I guess

Brooks same boat as Sorensen and Kem

Wilcke can maybe move up a spot or two at most, but I could see him going the other way just as easy

Holloway one win is all you can hope for

Yea i know that was pretty gloom and doom, but there really isnt much room for improvement. The only reason there would be any hope at all is if Suriano defaults out. Even then Iowa will have 10-20 points to make up and thats before you add in the bonus point advantage Penn State will have. Oh and did I mention that team from Ohio with an Olympic Champion on it?

 

[LaxHawk174]

I just cant see Iowa over preforming this weekend. Until they prove to me they can peak for the postseason I have just taught myself to temper expectations. When was the last time they exceeded expectations? Without looking I cant remember a single year in they did in the last 8.

Dont forget that Iowa has very little room for improvement this year.

Gilman can only equal his seed

Clark could improve, but he is banged up and nobody knows how his shoulder will hold up through 2-3 tough matches

Carton maybe has the highest ceiling from where he is seeded, but even with that a finish above 6 isnt guaranteed

Sorensen is the #2 seed and hes almost a lock to do no better than that. Not to mention he will have a tough semifinal match

Kemerer is in the exact same situation as Sorensen. No way is he beating Nolf and he will have an extremely tough semi

Gunther is the #5 and has been controlled or worked by everyone above him, so he only can wrestle to seed

Meyer might have more room for improvement than Carton, but if he is the guy you are banking on then you have more stones than I do I guess

Brooks same boat as Sorensen and Kem

Wilcke can maybe move up a spot or two at most, but I could see him going the other way just as easy

Holloway on win is all you can hope for

Yea i know that was pretty gloom and doom, but there really isnt much room for improvement. The only reason there would be any hope at all is if Suriano defaults out. Even then Iowa will have 10-20 points to make up and thats before you add in the bonus point advantage Penn State will have. Oh and did I mention that team from Ohio with an Olympic Champion on it?

Yes, beating PSU is a longshot, but theres no data to suggest Ohio State is just better than we are. We have equaled or beaten their team score at B1Gs the last 2 seasons with the olympic champ on their squad. We finished runner up to them in 2015, but if not for some wonky blood round ref we damn near equal their team finish last season. They were only a couple points ahead. This year looks to be another close race between us and tOSU. I think Iowa is wrestling well right now.

 

[CumberlandHawk]

I will err on the side of hope and say we get hot and win all 10 weights

 

[Squarehat]

Let's not put Johnbeerpong in charge of morale.

 

[CumberlandHawk]

Let's not put Johnbeerpong in charge of morale.

Maybe he got some bad beer and is grouchy.

 

[Hicksy87]

Nobody ever expected Darrion Caldwell to take it to Metcalf and many did not think Mark Perry would beat Johnny Hendricks. Upsets can and will happen in conference tournaments and nationals. Hopefully , those upsets go the Hawkeyes way.

 

[Stanley75]

Nobody ever expected Darrion Caldwell to take it to Metcalf and many did not think Mark Perry would beat Johnny Hendricks. Upsets can and will happen in conference tournaments and nationals. Hopefully , those upsets go the Hawkeyes way.

I lose coin flips 83% of the time. I'm also 0-48 in bar fights. So things have got to get better. So I'm saying Iowa will crown 11 champs.

 

[chuck285]

I lose coin flips 83% of the time. I'm also 0-48 in bar fights. So things have got to get better. So I'm saying Iowa will crown 11 champs.

You better get out of the bar before you lose another fight with the waitress

 

[bphawkeye_Rivals]

You better get out of the bar before you lose another fight with the waitress

or better wingmen