10 Years of NCAA Tournament Scoring Data (2013-2023)

[LaxHawk174]

Felt like compiling the "Average Tournament Scoring Stats" for each AA placement 1st - 8th for the last 10 NCAA tournaments. Hopefully fellow wrestling stat enthusiasts will enjoy. Eventually I might do a breakdown weight by weight (Avg 125 1st, Avg 125 2nd, etc..) when I can find the time.

For clarity sake:
-All numbers in the columns of the first table are the average of the 10 finishers from that season. EX: for the 2013 season, the average team points scored by all the champs was 23.
-Average for all seasons combined are listed below individual seasons table.
-Plus an additional breakdown of the championship teams from each year is at the bottom.

Columns go from 1st to 8th, top to bottom. All values rounded to nearest half point. (Edit: noticed the graph kind of got cattywampus and columns didn't align great with the years listed above. So keep that in mind.)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2021

2022

2023

(1ST) 23	23	24	23.5	24	23.5	23.5	22	22.5	22.5
(2ND) 18.5	18.5	18	19	18	19	18.5	19.5	18	17.5
(3RD) 16	16.5	16.5	16.5	17.5	16.5	16	16.5	15.5	16
(4TH) 14.5	14	14	15	14.5	15.5	15	14.5	14	13.5
(5TH) 12	11.5	12	13	12.5	12.5	12.5	12.5	11.5	12.5
(6TH) 11.5	9.5	10	11	10.5	11.5	11	10	11	10.5
(7TH) 9	7.5	8.5	7	8	8	8	8.5	8	8
(8TH) 7	7	6	7	7.5	6.5	6.5	7.5	6	6.5

AVG 1ST PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	23 PTS
AVG 2ND PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	18.5 PTS
AVG 3RD PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	16.5 PTS
AVG 4TH PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	14.5 PTS
AVG 5TH PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	12.5 PTS
AVG 6TH PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	10.5 PTS
AVG 7TH PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	8 PTS
AVG 8TH PLACE POINTS (2013-2023)	7 PTS

CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM SCORE + TEAM COMPOSITION

SCORING BREAKDOWN

2013 - 123.5 PTS - 5 AA'S - 5 FINALISTS - 2 CHAMPS	26 + 24 + 22 + 20 + 18.5 + 5 + 3.5 + 2.5 + 1.5 + 0.5
2014 - 109.5 PTS - 7 AA'S - 2 FINALISTS - 2 CHAMPS	27 + 24.5 + 15 + 12 + 11 + 8.5 + 6.5 + 2 + 1.5 + 1.5
2015 - 102 PTS - 5 AA'S - 3 FINALISTS - 2 CHAMPS	26 + 24.5 + 19.5 + 18 + 10 + 2.5 + 1 + 0.5
2016 - 123 PTS - 6 AA'S - 5 FINALISTS - 2 CHAMPS	28.5 + 22 + 21 + 20 + 18 + 9 + 3 + 1.5
2017 - 146.5 PTS - 6 AA'S - 5 FINALISTS - 5 CHAMPS	28 + 27.5 + 27 + 23 + 22.5 + 10 + 4.5 + 4
2018 - 141.5 PTS - 8 AA'S - 5 FINALISTS - 4 CHAMPS	25 + 23 + 23 + 21 + 20.5 + 11.5 + 9.5 + 8.5 + 0.5
2019 - 137.5 PTS - 7 AA'S - 5 FINALISTS - 3 CHAMPS	27 + 26 + 24 + 18 + 17 + 16 + 5.5 + 3.5 + 1.5
2021 - 129 PTS - 7 AA'S - 3 FINALISTS - 1 CHAMP	24.5 + 21.5 + 20 + 19.5 + 16.5 + 12.5 + 8.5 + 4 + 2 + 1
2022 - 131.5 PTS - 6 AA'S - 5 FINALISTS - 5 CHAMPS	23 + 23 + 23 + 22 + 21.5 + 15.5 + 2 + 1 + 0.5
2023 - 137.5 PTS - 8 AA'S - 5 FINALISTS - 2 CHAMPS	24 + 23 + 19 + 18 + 17 + 15.5 + 14.5 + 6.5 +

 

[Grip220]

Good stuff Lax! Am I missing something or did you skip one weight class, I only see 9 columns for each year?

 

[MSU158]

Good stuff Lax! Am I missing something or did you skip one weight class, I only see 9 columns for each year?

Covid year…lol. There are only 8 columns for the 8 places. Unless I am missing something there are no columns for specific weight classes other than the addition for the team champion scores…

 

[Grip220]

Covid year…lol. There are only 8 columns for the 8 places. Unless I am missing something there are no columns for specific weight classes other than the addition for the team champion scores…

🤪Way to early in the AM, I understand how it’s laid out now

 

[burk11]

LaxHawk174,

What does this data/statistical assembling mean? What is your interpretation, analysis of the data? Are there patterns or trends represented in the data you present? Your thoughts, your intent, your purpose, your analysis?

 

[MSU158]

LaxHawk174,

What does this data/statistical assembling mean? What is your interpretation, analysis of the data? Are there patterns or trends represented in the data you present? Your thoughts, your intent, your purpose, your analysis?

It shows you that you really need to score 120+ at the least to have a realistic chance to win, on average. To do so, at the bare minimum, you need 6 AA's, with 3+ Finalists. Even then, you would probably only win about half the time.

As an aside, using the average for 3rd place, 6 3rd place finishers score you 99 points. To get to 120, you would still need another top 5 finisher along with several wins from the other 3 non placers.

So, unless you can get all 10 on the podium, which just isn't a realistic expectation, you have to have nearly all your guys in the top 5 with several wrestling on Saturday night...

 

[LaxHawk174]

LaxHawk174,

What does this data/statistical assembling mean? What is your interpretation, analysis of the data? Are there patterns or trends represented in the data you present? Your thoughts, your intent, your purpose, your analysis?

Purpose is partially for myself, just to put it all in one place for easier reference. I'm "old school" in that I like to write stuff by hand in notebooks, so I've got a couple notebooks filled with wrestling stats, dual comparisons, recruiting breakdowns, potential lineups and other stuff going back to my HS wrestling years. And partially to just share the data, there's many people smarter than I who can offer meaningful insight.

I remember back in 2016 someone had the question of how much many team points guys actually scored by placement. So I ran the average numbers from 2013-2015. Over the years have just been adding to my data after NCAA's and thought the 10 tournament mark would be a good time to make a post I suppose. Larger sample size, more data.

I don't think there is any groundbreaking revelation to be had in the data, just thought it could be a helpful tool in aiding potential team scoring discussions. I use the average pts scored when doing my projections for NCAA's. While not perfect, I prefer it to just using the standard placement points like, say, FLO does for their team rankings. Although this really only accounts for the meat and potatoes of the scoring in actual AA's.

I thought the championship team breakdown would just help visualize what many have been saying for years in terms of what we need to win titles. 5 out of the 10 years the champs had 5 or 6 AA's - with 4 or 5 'holes'. Maybe to reiterate the point that high end point scorers are what matters, as we all know. An interesting tidbit: every single championship team would have still won if you removed their Non-AA points from the team score.

 

[Lambertt]

You put a lot of work into this but I have never been a stat man. It would be like me keeping a daily chart of how many fish I catch a day and then which day is the best day to fish. Every day is a good day to fish.

 

[butchinmi]

You put a lot of work into this but I have never been a stat man. It would be like me keeping a daily chart of how many fish I catch a day and then which day is the best day to fish. Every day is a good day to fish.

Totally agree with you that every day is a good day to fish. I think what he is sharing is to show that everyday is not a great day to catch.

 

[butchinmi]

Unless you have a nice farm pond or rock quarry in Iowa - then everyday is a good day to catch as well.

 

[butchinmi]

Thanks for doing this Lax. Answers many questions/scenarios I have every year about tournament time.

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

You put a lot of work into this but I have never been a stat man. It would be like me keeping a daily chart of how many fish I catch a day and then which day is the best day to fish. Every day is a good day to fish.

I don't know about that. My partner and I were fishing a bass tournament on Kentucky Lake a few weeks back and the fish just weren't biting. It was high blue skies and hot as hell, and the bass wanted no part of it. In the end we had two keepers and great farmers' tans, and were totally fricking exhausted. It was the most exhausting day of fishing ever!!

 

[HikeNatParks]

Slick data. Taking a different spin, the average number of team points for first and second those 10 years was 128 to 104. Given the average 24 point victory margin, if the runnerup captured 12 of the points the champ earned, that’s a 116-116 tie. Get to 117 and you’re gold (at least theoretically). Steveson over Kerk in a final is a likely 10-pt shift alone in team points (+5 IA, -5 PSU), possibly more. Gable at Iowa makes for a tighter dual and tournament, and far more thrills for all fans of NCAA wrestling. I’m the odd Lion fan who prefers that over Gable considering PSU just for its unmatched room.

 

[LaxHawk174]

Slick data. Taking a different spin, the average number of team points for first and second those 10 years was 128 to 104. Given the average 24 point victory margin, if the runnerup captured 12 of the points the champ earned, that’s a 116-116 tie. Get to 117 and you’re gold (at least theoretically). Steveson over Kerk in a final is a likely 10-pt shift alone in team points (+5 IA, -5 PSU), possibly more. Gable at Iowa makes for a tighter dual and tournament, and far more thrills for all fans of NCAA wrestling. I’m the odd Lion fan who prefers that over Gable considering PSU just for its unmatched room.

Frankly it's not hard to imagine him wrestling for Minnesota, Iowa, or Penn St. next year. He can come back, get #3 for Minnesota, continue to cement their Heavyweight U legacy, and be the big fish up in Minny for as long as he wants. Iowa, the allure of also being a big fish for the rabid Hawkeye wrestling nation and being a leader on the only team with a punchers chance to take on the champs(IF all the cards fall right, other potential pieces fall into place and suspensions are only partial and not full year). Or go to the current Dynasty at PSU, with objectively better partners for him, try to break the scoring record and make the best club team even better after the college season.

 

[HikeNatParks]

Frankly it's not hard to imagine him wrestling for Minnesota, Iowa, or Penn St. next year. He can come back, get #3 for Minnesota, continue to cement their Heavyweight U legacy, and be the big fish up in Minny for as long as he wants. Iowa, the allure of also being a big fish for the rabid Hawkeye wrestling nation and being a leader on the only team with a punchers chance to take on the champs(IF all the cards fall right, other potential pieces fall into place and suspensions are only partial and not full year). Or go to the current Dynasty at PSU, with objectively better partners for him, try to break the scoring record and make the best club team even better after the college season.

If it’s one of those, I like your order for probability, and your reasons, too. If it’s the Hawks, I always enjoy a thriller over a yawner, both at the dual and in March. As for the gambling, if not betting on your own team, I’m clueless why these kids are in trouble, and hope it’s a wrist slap or partial suspension. The best thing for what’s grown into an all-time rivalry is for both teams to remain strong and keep testing each other. Only a small minority enjoy a 50-0 Super Bowl win.