Iowa baseball - Rubber hits the road this weekend
- Thread starter AuroraHawk
- Start date
Series win at a minimum perhaps? Leistikow has a subscriber only article up today re: Iowa's chances at a regional. I feel this same article has been written annually since 2015....
Depending on other teams (of course!) Hawks RPI could climb into low 50s with a series win or even a sweep would be better! Need to start moving that RPI down into 40s ahead of Big Ten Tournament, which starts roughly a month from today...crazy..
I’m prepared for disappointment, which has been a recurring theme pretty much since the LSU win.
Offense has been on fire lately....Huskers leave too many runners on base and commit too many errors though.
The BTN+ coverage is ..................not great. Would be nice if at least one of these three games were televised.
Here's a write-up I did about Brecht's start:
https://iowa.rivals.com/news/brecht-watch-2023-the-husker-roller-coaster
https://iowa.rivals.com/news/brecht-watch-2023-the-husker-roller-coaster
what a jumbled mess
these might be the 8 teams in the B1G Tournament.
how many NCAA Tournament bids does the B1G get?
STANDINGS (from @Alum-Ni 's thread):
1. Indiana (29-11, 9-3)
2. Michigan (21-17, 9-5)
3. Nebraska (21-13-1, 7-4)
4. Purdue (19-18, 8-5)
5. Maryland (23-15, 6-4)
6. Iowa (28-10, 6-5)
6. Michigan State (23-13, 6-5)
6. Rutgers (23-16, 6-5)
these might be the 8 teams in the B1G Tournament.
how many NCAA Tournament bids does the B1G get?
STANDINGS (from @Alum-Ni 's thread):
1. Indiana (29-11, 9-3)
2. Michigan (21-17, 9-5)
3. Nebraska (21-13-1, 7-4)
4. Purdue (19-18, 8-5)
5. Maryland (23-15, 6-4)
6. Iowa (28-10, 6-5)
6. Michigan State (23-13, 6-5)
6. Rutgers (23-16, 6-5)
Indiana needs to find a few losses because I said so......
I demand a sweep today, that is all!
A loss = 57 point RPI loss, which would drop us from 46 to 52 assuming teams behind us all lose and then of course all the indirect games too have a small bearing.
Iowa win = 29 RPI point bump, we could possibly go as high as 43 in RPI if games go our way today. Translatoin, get the W!
Go SDSU, Minnesota and Michigan today!
A loss = 57 point RPI loss, which would drop us from 46 to 52 assuming teams behind us all lose and then of course all the indirect games too have a small bearing.
Iowa win = 29 RPI point bump, we could possibly go as high as 43 in RPI if games go our way today. Translatoin, get the W!
Go SDSU, Minnesota and Michigan today!
Today is as much about conference record, probably more, than RPI in my view.
At this point, it is really hard to separate the two.
I'm thinking that Heller breaks out all the stops today. Langenberg starts and Simpson and Voelker are fully rested. In the pre-game interview, Sean McGrath stated that he expects that all three will see time on the mound today. If someone falters, "next man in" mentality has to prevail.
A SDSU sweep over St. Thomas would be a nice little bonus and they are already up 5-0 in Game 1.
And, BTW, s/o to KSU and Indiana State for making Iowa's win over the both of them look awfully good at this point.
Up 5-1 and bases juiced with only 1 out, Iowa has a chance to make things really tough for the Huskers.
And . . . don't look now . . . the "Indirect Games" are largely breaking in Iowa's favor.
(Wild pitch plates a run. Iowa up 6-1.)
And . . . don't look now . . . the "Indirect Games" are largely breaking in Iowa's favor.
(Wild pitch plates a run. Iowa up 6-1.)
Hawkeye pitching dominated all weekend. Congrats on the sweep.
Best outings of the year for both Morgan and Langenberg. Nebraska ran into a buzzsaw in Iowa City this weekend.
Hawkeyes really needed this sweep! Iowa is back up to #42 which puts them back in the discussion for an at large.
Someone help a casual observer while in the heat of his own coaching season. In also not a huge baseball guy.
1- Iowa seemed to start really well. What happened?
2- I understand northern teams seem to get knocked by tend to do fine in the tournament. Is that old adage still alive today? Will the Big Ten only get one or two teams in?
1- Iowa seemed to start really well. What happened?
2- I understand northern teams seem to get knocked by tend to do fine in the tournament. Is that old adage still alive today? Will the Big Ten only get one or two teams in?
And...just like that rpi of 43 great weekend Hawks!
1. Personally, I think that the pitching hasn't performed as well as expected after a hot start. Far too many walks given to opponents. You gift baserunners to an opponent and it will come back to bite you. Brecht struggles with control but his gifted arm can often bail him out. Morgan was having one bad inning that created difficult bullpen management issues. He's now had two really nice outings in a row. Langenberg has been an enigma. Simply could not find any consistency. Yesterday was much different. The 2022 version returned. And it was much needed. Hopefully that helps his confidence and that's what we see going forward.
2. Northern teams still have a tough road. Many things cut against Iowa's interests, including not have a B1G representative in the Midwest Regional Committee. If I had to guess right now, I'd think that the B1G will get at least two, if not three teams in the NCAA tournament. Lots of ball to play but I'm not seeing four teams getting the call.
One thing that I failed to mention with respect to #2. Last year, Rutgers was 44-15 and had a 43 RPI. Regular season 2nd place in B1G and runner up to Michigan in the B1G tournament. Rutgers did not receive a Regional bid after Michigan "bid stole" a spot by winning the B1G tournament. Only Maryland and Michigan earned Regional spots.
Last year, the B1G - as a whole - was ranked 8th among conferences. It had 5 teams in the top 100 RPI. Maryland and Rutgers were "Q1" teams. Iowa, Michigan and Illinois were "Q2" teams. Indiana, at 105, was just outside the top 100.
This year, the B1G - as a whole - is currently ranked 6th among conferences. It currently has 7 teams in the top 100 RPI. Indiana, Iowa and Rutgers are currently in "Q1" territory. Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska are currently in "Q2" territory. Illinois, at 102, is just outside the top 100.
As much as I hate RPI as a metric, it is what the selection committee deems to be important. And, using RPI as the measure, the B1G is better and deeper conference this year compared to last year and - if things hold steady - the conference should be a three bid league.
Minimizing "bid stealers" from other conferences also plays a huge role for bubble teams. For example, the AAC really has one strong candidate (East Carolina - RPI 15). If East Carolina loses the season ending tournament to a team like South Florida (RPI 143), then the AAC will get two bids and a bubble team will get pushed out.
Same with MVC. Indiana State (RPI 10) - barring a late season meltdown - is going to get a NCAA bid. Iowa fans (hell, all B1G fans) should be rooting for ISU to win the MVC post-season tournament so that the MVC is a one-bid league. That league's top 5 teams (1 Q1 and 4 Q2) are 3-33 against Q1 competition this year.
All in all, Iowa finds itself (once again) largely in control of its destiny. One need only look at Warren Nolan's site and click on "Predicted Results" to give you an idea of "what could be." I don't buy for a second that it is an accurate predictor of what will happen. But it seems to provide an accurate prediction of what a RPI would look like IF certain results occur. Simply put, if Iowa can (a) win its mid-week games at home against UIC and ISU and (b) win every series against B1G competition, including a sweep on the road against a really bad Northwestern team, Iowa will finish in the top 3 or 4 of the regular season standings and have a RPI in the upper 20s/lower 30s.
All that written, Iowa baseball fans are painfully aware of what has transpired year after year after year. Just when things look great, a giant f'ing egg is laid and they find themselves out of the NCAA tournament.
The next 3 games in State College are incredibly important. After those games, Iowa has 8 straight home games until they head to Evanston to close out the season. Taking 2 of 3 from PSU is a must. Absolute must.
Warren Nolan has Iowa winning out and finishing with an 18 RPI! Um, yeah, I'll take that! :0
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-sheet-predict?team=Iowa
https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2023/team-sheet-predict?team=Iowa
I have no clue how that site works its "Predicted Results" page. For example, I just now went to the site and it has Iowa finishing 38-12/17-7 in conference and finishing with an RPI of 12.
However, as part of that "prediction," it had Iowa losing 2 of 3 to PSU and 1 of 3 to MSU. Given that Iowa is currently 7-5 in the B1G, it cannot finish 17-7 in B1G play if it loses three more conference games. (Shrug emoji)
I think that the key take away is that, if it keeps on winning, Iowa's RPI can get into the uppers 20s / low 30s and make it an attractive at-large candidate.
