Those are definitely "real" numbers to me, too. My comments were only in regard to "adult use" or retail MJ sales. I've only seen one chart that shows both the Legal and Illegal market projections, but the general take-away was that the crossover from illicit market to retail market is going to be pretty slow.
This is me just thinking outloud, I wonder how much of an impact there will be on illegal black market grows when more and more states legalize. I assume some of the benefit of the illegal grows is making bank exporting to bordering states.