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Iowa Medical Cannabis Industry worried about Illinois Legalization

Those are definitely "real" numbers to me, too. My comments were only in regard to "adult use" or retail MJ sales. I've only seen one chart that shows both the Legal and Illegal market projections, but the general take-away was that the crossover from illicit market to retail market is going to be pretty slow.

This is me just thinking outloud, I wonder how much of an impact there will be on illegal black market grows when more and more states legalize. I assume some of the benefit of the illegal grows is making bank exporting to bordering states.
 
Legalizing for adult/recreational use will have a very limited impact tax revenues. What typically happens when states legalize "Adult use" is that folks who didn't typically use the stuff before might start to look into it; and they will go to a state licensed retailer and pay the higher cost. However, most long-time users are going to continue getting their stuff from a non-compliant supplier who is offering the product (albeit lower quality/consistency) at a price that is about half of what the legal sellers are charging.

That's not really accurate. In states that have a system for taxing and collecting revenue, they have done very well. Overall population matters as well. For instance, I know that Michigan hasn't made any money because they made it legal to smoke and have, but it is not legal to buy it. Illinois will likely make even more off people from Michigan than people from Iowa.

20190326_Marijuana_Tax_Forbes.jpg


Illinois Economic Policy expects revenues to be north of $500 million a year. I think that's a bit optimistic but I'm very confident that it will be more than $100 million a year. Especially with all the out of staters coming to the state to buy. That won't last though because those states can't ignore all that money leaving the state forever. Well, maybe Indiana and Kentucky can.
 
Legalizing for adult/recreational use will have a very limited impact tax revenues. What typically happens when states legalize "Adult use" is that folks who didn't typically use the stuff before might start to look into it; and they will go to a state licensed retailer and pay the higher cost. However, most long-time users are going to continue getting their stuff from a non-compliant supplier who is offering the product (albeit lower quality/consistency) at a price that is about half of what the legal sellers are charging.
It was very cheap in Seattle when I was there and my source that frequents Colorado gets me way more for less money than it would be on the street.
 
That's not really accurate. In states that have a system for taxing and collecting revenue, they have done very well. Overall population matters as well. For instance, I know that Michigan hasn't made any money because they made it legal to smoke and have, but it is not legal to buy it. Illinois will likely make even more off people from Michigan than people from Iowa.

20190326_Marijuana_Tax_Forbes.jpg


Illinois Economic Policy expects revenues to be north of $500 million a year. I think that's a bit optimistic but I'm very confident that it will be more than $100 million a year. Especially with all the out of staters coming to the state to buy. That won't last though because those states can't ignore all that money leaving the state forever. Well, maybe Indiana and Kentucky can.
As woah astutely pointed out to me earlier in this thread, my comments are probably only relevant to CA. There, the taxation of recreational marijuana is so high as to discourage much of the illicit market from crossing over to the legal market.
Washington state is a good example of this as they appear to be generating equal/more tax revenue on what I would have to believe is a smaller overall market (both legal and illegal).
 
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Now please remind me why Iowa is worried about recreational MJ use? When you try and justify government as an instrument of capitalism, you are fighting a losing battle.
The Iowa GOP has been using this logic for years..and the result is less effective government, poorer delivery of services to customers and a bastardization of the role of government to its people.
Iowa needs to get out of the business of picking winners and losers and get back into the business of overseeing and regulating. Government cannot be expected to keep doing the jobs that have no profits and then cutting their tax revenues too.
 
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