That’s a hell of a cut for Berge
Iowa moves past Penn State
- Thread starter RothMatt
- Start date
I'm not from Missouri, but you have to Show Me. I'll be in Minneapolis front and center, but as per normal I'll believe it when I see it.
PSU is still the favorite in a tournament setting. A dual lineup doesnt support the deep horses PSU has that we hope Iowa matches. Cenzo & Hall have proven you can pencil them in as finalist if not Champs. Iowa only has Spencer in that regard.
Cassar also has emerged in that aspect altough he only has one year. So that 3-1 PSU finalist/Champ favorite.
Now we can debate the Bull, Kem, Nick Lee, ADS, Shakur, Conel etc all day but thats the X factor Iowa needs to win because its still 3-1 finalist locks the when the two teams walk off the bus.
IMO that makes PSU still the clear favorite. But Iowa is the only team that can dethrone them this season but the secondary cast of charactors like Lugo, Warner,ADS, Bull have to absolutly place abouve there seeds.
However next year IMO its Iowa as a clear favorite with Cornell at our heels and PSU is now having to prove who the new deep horses will be. Id argue next year is Caels biggest coaching season ever. Meaning they need big steps forward out of guys like Berge, Beard, RBY, Brooks etc. It will be interesting because most of PSU's once a decade studs where already finalist types as FR and definatly as Sophs. Ceal just reloaded. I see next season as a rebuild year and they dont have a David Taylor, Zain, Nickal guarantee. Maybe a few will emerge but Cael has been spoiled with at least 2 of those type guys if not 3. Next years a big year for Cael.
The other thing that needs to happen is Iowa beating Penn State head to head on the winners side of the bracket. We haven't been close enough in years for it to matter, but the teams that win it typically take out the closest competition on their own instead of hoping for someone else to do it (hope is not a strategy). Thats not a 100% thing, but sure seems like Iowa's past Championship teams took care of business against their main obstacles and widened the gap.
This Iowa Team is a paper tiger outside of Spencer Lee until proven otherwise (and perhaps an oft injured Kem - who has a
top-heavy weight class to deal with).
We'll see who is healthy in March, a ton of things can change between now and then. Iowa has plenty of firepower if they wrestle well at NCAA's, something they largely haven't done in 9-10 years (they were also devoid of talent to pull it off but....). If you don't show up in Minneapolis none of this matters.
Not trying to be Debbie Downer. I prefer reality to sunshine and puppies optimism that often doesn't bare fruit. I'll show up and cheer and hope for the best as per normal.
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You are the LITERAL opposite of a paper tiger when you have 7 AA's and 2 R12ers of which Lee, Kemerer and Marinelli have AA'd EVERY time they went, DeSanto should be 2 for 2 if he wrestled for a real DI team from the beginning, Young PROVED he was near the top of 157 with Nolf now gone and Warner is 1 for 1.
Paper tigers are guys that made R16 and end up ranked in the top 8 due to the weight class clearing out with guys above them. NOT proven AA's.
Also, when talking about PSU hammers you are getting too used to what they HAVE HAD vs. what they have know. Hall and Joseph are NOT Retherford and Nolf. Yes, they are likely to make the Finals and MAYBE even win. But they are going to score ATLEAST 10 less BONUS points combined, let alone placement points. That is HUGE.
Say, Hall, Joseph, Cassar and Lee ALL average 2nd place. That is ONLY guaranteed 64 points. Give them another 16 points in bonus(which is generous). That is 80. You now have to look to RBY for how many proven points? After that you have injured Rasheed and Conel and then completely unproven guys at 125, 149 and 157.
PSU simply DOES NOT have near the guaranteed points they have had in years past. That isn't to say that, by March, they shouldn't be favorites, but this team has MORE to prove than they have going all the way back to the beginning of Carl.
I like Lugo and iff someone could teach him to finish his shot and/or stay on his feet (off his knees) he will beat Degen. He lost both matches on final scrambles when he shot and stopped on his knees. Cant do that on the long and lanky guys....
This is all my fault. I went over your head. My apologies.
Paper tigers, dream weaving and a PSU slappie liking your post. You hit the trifecta my friend. Well done. I bow to your prodigious wordsmithery.
I'm with you. We've got to back it up in March...and until we do that, we fall in the "all others" grouping. And our guys whose style doesn't lend to getting bonus points (Cash, Jacob and Lugo come to mind automatically) need to tweak their style just a bit when wrestling lesser opponents. Tehy need to adopt Cass' attitude ("I want to set the Iowa record for falls"). That crap we saw with Warner's match Sunday was inexcusable. If you're 3rd in the country you need to completely dismantle any and all unranked and nowhere near the top 40 opponents. Marinelli didn't fare much better in the scoring department, but at least he was trying moves that could lead to a fall. Warner's moves were potentially leading to falls as well...and that would be all of us fans fall-ing asleep due to fricking boredom. He's got to awake that inner beast we know is in there somewhere!!
I'm looking forward to that match as well as a few others that could go either way depending on the lineup. I'm anxious to see if our guys are really hungry and whether they go for the kill or dick around and lose in the 3rd. That style drives me in f'ing sane. Loved seeing Brands in there Sunday...was nice to see someone at 84 who has the lead in the third and is still looking for - and getting - the TD! I'd like to see him stay there as long as he keeps taking care of business (and eating and hitting the weights).
Getting what you meant doesn't mandate agreeing with how inaccurately stupid it was............................the fact that you have another PSU slappie agreeing with you should help you see that..........................
Yet you provide all this brilliant data on PAPER of how the scoring is going to go, ya know, in the future. Because we have plenty of guys who currently, on PAPER are going to end that narrative because of their current ranking, which is subject to change, good or bad as the season unfolds. Ending the Title drought may well happen and I certainly hope it does, far more than you I assure you. But it won't if they don't collectively wrestle well when it matters, which doesn't occur, on Paper.
And somehow a program that has been winning titles every year and keeps recruiting Top Ten athletes every year is regressing to the point our collection of previously known mid to low AA's is going to take them out (they're going up against the same field that we are). You apparently are assuming that all or most of our guys are going to finish equal to or better than they have previously, which will have to be proven, on a wrestling mat.
I'm also making assumptions, based on previous performances at NCAA's where we aren't in the conversation on Saturday Night. This Team MIGHT change all that, we shall see. Show me.
When Iowa set the scoring record at the UNI Dome, Oklahoma State was the prohibitive favorite, the Paper Tiger, and Iowa demolished them and everyone else on the mat. We don't have to demolish Penn State, we only have to win by one, but the actual wrestling will determine that, not seeds or rankings or anything else on Paper.
The KEY part you are missing is that I am NOT making assumptions based on the ACTUAL guys wrestling and YOU are.
I didn't put anything on paper the WAY you are using the term. "paper tiger" means UNPROVEN. Look it up.
Lee, Kemerer, Marinelli, DeSanto and even Young are NOT unproven. Even Lugo and Warner have AA'd and PROVEN to be point scorers at NCAA's.
Meanwhile, PSU is as UNPROVEN as they have been, excepting Sanderson's first season and they year they punted. They currently have true MAJOR question marks at 125,149, 157, 184 and 197. That is HALF their lineup. Add in that the other half that are proven are not really bonus point scorers at NCAA's except maybe Lee and you are simply going off PSU's track record regardless of who they put on the mat.
Point being, PSU is ACTUALLY the "paper tiger" this year if you go by the ACTUAL definition!
With that said, I get why you stick with PSU until proven otherwise. Their recent record is unreal. However, what both teams are currently putting on the mat IN NO WAY favors PSU.......
What's the definition of "proven" you are using?
Because PSU has guys who have AA'd at both 184 and 197.
If you're putting Lugo and Warner in the "proven" category, I'm not sure how Shak and Conel are left out.
Your reaching MSU but its pretty simple. Potential Finalist
Iowa
1. Lee
2. ADS
3. Bull
4. Kem
PSU
1. N.Lee
2. Cenzo
3. Hall
4. Cassar
Out of Iowa only 1 should be considered a lock, PSU has 3 that are locks. Iowas lock has won a title. All 3 of PSU's locks have won titles.
2 more Champions point totals > Iowa having 2 more 7th place AA's.
PSU is the slight favorite but Iowa isnt going out point PSU by quantity. Thats fools gold to think that. If the paths cross Iowa has to win the majority of 5 most important head to heads on friday morning, Night and then again Sat morning and Sat night if at all possible.
1. Bull over Cenzo
2. Kem/ Hall
3. Young/ Berge
4. ADS/RBY
5. Warner/ Conel or Beard
I just dont see Iowa taking out N. Lee, Shakur or Cassar so I'm going with the 5 that are manageable.
Iowa
1. Lee
2. ADS
3. Bull
4. Kem
PSU
1. N.Lee
2. Cenzo
3. Hall
4. Cassar
Out of Iowa only 1 should be considered a lock, PSU has 3 that are locks. Iowas lock has won a title. All 3 of PSU's locks have won titles.
2 more Champions point totals > Iowa having 2 more 7th place AA's.
PSU is the slight favorite but Iowa isnt going out point PSU by quantity. Thats fools gold to think that. If the paths cross Iowa has to win the majority of 5 most important head to heads on friday morning, Night and then again Sat morning and Sat night if at all possible.
1. Bull over Cenzo
2. Kem/ Hall
3. Young/ Berge
4. ADS/RBY
5. Warner/ Conel or Beard
I just dont see Iowa taking out N. Lee, Shakur or Cassar so I'm going with the 5 that are manageable.
I don’t disagree but 2 of the 3 locks lost their last final. One to a dark horse. Both have losses to Hawkeyes.
have to wrestle the matches. On paper stuff has to favor history and rankings. (Both mean squat until the whistle blows)
PSU has had a good run with “lock” individuals and I do think they get a little too much benefit of doubt. But, they are king of the hill until someone knocks them off.
Don't try to debate with MSU. It's a waste of time.
Hey, how do you have time to post? Aren't you supposed to be stretching Cael's new jockstraps to make sure they are properly broken in before he wears them?
It's good to finally be excited about Iowa's potential. We have a shot as a Team. Been a long time coming. Go get'em fellas!
@MSU158 -- I generally appreciate your posts because you actually do make the effort to attempt to support your opinions with data. However, your analysis above regarding "guaranteed" or "proven" points, and how PSU has a minimum of only 80, is not really appropriate in a thesis that Iowa is better "right now", unless you apply the same standard to Iowa (which, as a team, scored 76 last year).
Regardless, we all know "right now" is meaningless in the grand scheme of the season. It's probably not worth debating whether Iowa or PSU is #1. They'll square off Jan 31st and twice again in March, and then we'll have the answer.
Regardless, we all know "right now" is meaningless in the grand scheme of the season. It's probably not worth debating whether Iowa or PSU is #1. They'll square off Jan 31st and twice again in March, and then we'll have the answer.
So free with the insults. I bet your one of those little dueshebag that talks tough all the time but cant back it up. Yep that's you you don't need to answer. Dumb ass
I know I am looking through Iowa tinted glasses, but I just don't want to label the 3 PSU "locks" as locks. My personal position is that Cenzo and Hall have a 50-50 shot at adding another title. It might not look very good right now for GS, but if he is on the mat in March, with an additional year of experience, I believe Cassar drops out of the position of feeling like an assured victory.
Actually, who I am isn’t a fully veiled secret. You could probably find that out if you tried hard enough and see if you are putting th your foot in your mouth. But, I digress. You constantly act like a keyboard tough guy and that is most often a sign that you are exactly what you just depicted in me. Have a great day.
You bet on penn state for the same
Reason you bet on the patriots. Past results. I’m still picking penn state, even despite the loss Tonight.
I Hope I’m wrong.
Reason you bet on the patriots. Past results. I’m still picking penn state, even despite the loss Tonight.
I Hope I’m wrong.
I get that. I have had this debate for the past couple months on themat. I wouldn’t bet on Iowa if forced to put up substantial money. PSU has too strong of a recent track record. But, I am picking Iowa to win and will stick to that throughout the season.
PSU is the most vulnerable they have been in quite some time and Iowa is the deepest they have been since Metcalf. I get not picking against a team that has gone 8 out of 9.
Sure...but we are returning Kemerer who is one of our best wrestlers. I like his chances to bonus more than Hall even though Hall will be the favorite going in. I also like Cass to add points that Sam couldn't last year.
I am still in the camp that Iowa is going to have to win it versus PSU losing it. However, I see MSU's point...in past close situations, PSU had multiple closers. A team would get close and then Bo, Nolf or Zain go out and delete all hope...in both duals and tourneys. I like Lee to step up into a spot like that since 141 is kind of weak this year. But HWY is going to be tougher this year...especially if Gable gets back in the mix. Also, there are unknowns. 125, 149, 157, 184, and 197 may not factor in a ton of points...or 84 could get on a cradle spree and 197 could get some throws for pins. Who knows.
Iowa could be favored to win if the competition were today, or some date in the next several weeks. But there will be no such competition, and so it really isn't relevant.
It's a dual meet as well. Tournament is a different animal. Regardless, Iowa will be in the mix, this result doesn't change that for better or worse. It's just a good day because they lost.
125 and 149 seem to be pretty well known.
157 is unknown until we see how Berge recovers from that head injury.
184 is unknown, due to Rasheed being injury-prone . . . Brooks would be a prospective safety net, which isn't too shabby. But this blows up if Rasheed is hurting at season's end and they stick with him like last year, or he gets hurt too late for Brooks to step in and be effective.
197 is very likely going to be Beard, IMO. We'll find out soon enough what kind of point-potential is there.
That all said, sure, PSU is not as strong as it has been the past few years. What that means will become more apparent after January 31st and through February. A lot of "stuff" can happen between now and then. I'm just going to enjoy the wrestling and see how it plays out.
MSU and 23 are both making good points... They’re both not wrong. Lots and lots of variables... Let’s let it play out. Most interesting season in years and I’m here for it!
that’s what makes it true.
I was excited to see the match and them to lose.
Fun match and more beer than I have had in a while.
they just lost. They are going to recover and be the team expected. They are not unbeatable. After reading all the reason Iowa should not be number one, PSU showed us that the sport is an equalizer.
All that said, fun dual. 25 guys in a state where we had to pay the bar owner to let us take over a TV to watch. Non fans came to see what the yelling was about. We had fun. A Penn State grad (wrestled there in the early 2000’s) said “this is why wrestling is great. Anyone can win or lose.” He was pissed PSU lost but said it is great for the sport because now there is buzz and now other teams may dare to grind a little more. And, maybe the TV will be free next time.
