Iowa opens as 3 point favorite over UConn
- Thread starter Franisdaman
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Interesting.....No Syd, No Kate, No Gabbie. All starters on a Final Four team.
Incredibly proud of the entire group.
Ohhh, but those recruiting rankings are about to change for Iowa, and for the better.
USC's players looked bigger and thicker than those we have been used to playing. I know it sounds crazy but I like a matchup better with UCONN.
Iowa is probably no better than a 6 seed without CC, and probably won't make it to the second weekend.
Yep, we have 40, 58, 64 and 91 coming in next year and #12 for 2025. So not elite level but great for Iowa.
USC has better depth and a higher ceiling, with more variability for a good or bad performance. Uconn was effectively at max efficiency last night, with major foul trouble. This is where Caitlin needs to continue to drive it in the lane and get as many fouls as possible. And run them up and down the court. Then we need to defend and box out. We have the players to match up better with Uconn than USC in my opinion. Every player looking to try to get the rebound.
Both UConn and Iowa have limited benches, Iowa's a bit deeper, especially in the front court. We have 4 C's we can throw out there that can hold their own. That is 20 fouls. The issue is after Hannah, not much fire power.
Its the backcourt without Molly that we are struggling on depth.
The stage and bright lights looked a little too big for USC last night.
Caitlin Effect is real. The real test is, can Iowa keep making deep tourney pushes in the post-CC era?
I guess to me, the only time thus far not having Molly hurt us was against WVU. We could have really used another quick ball handler with the way the refs were letting WVU play. When the opposition isn't allowed to mug Caitlin and she has full freedom of movement, I think Affolter is better in there. Good 3 point shooter, great taking it to the rim, good rebounder, and a great defender with much more size. You can always use more depth but I think things are clicking on all cylinders right now with Affolter as a starter.
I think Affolter is by far the better player in most situations, having another quality ball handler is something we are missing.
Agreed. I am just not sure Affolter would have had the same opportunities without the injury. I am not saying we are better off with Molly injured, but the silver lining is it happened early enough where we have adapted to play without her and the offense is really humming right now, to go along with better defense.
4 of the 7 players from UCONN that played vs USC are freshman. Geno is a hell of a coach for sure but I like our matchup better vs UCONN. Starting 5...one 6' player and one 6'3" player. All others under 6'. Not a heck of a bunch different than us BUT think Hannah becomes more viable this game which makes us more difficult to cover. Hope I am right.
We are a better defensive and rebounding team, with a different dynamic on offense. Molly more of a 3 pointer, slasher with a tear drop, Sydney tough driver to the hoop with a 3 pointer also more willing it seems to break out on fast breaks.
I probably have enough fingers and toes to count the number of games the UConn women were underdogs from 1994-2020. They've come back down to earth a bit since then.
Some of the talking heads today were discussing the matchups on Friday.
I don't see any way Geno puts PB on CC. Would wear her out chasing Clark. And Gabby will be tasked with guarding Bueckers, imo.
I just don't see UCONN surviving Iowa's pace.
Gino is old school, and his teams are very structured and take care of the ball while also playing good defense. Nika Muhl is two-time defensive Player of the Year and will be the best CC has played against. Has the size to defend her shot, will deny her the ball, and will get good help on the drives. Iowa plays a little loose with the ball which might be their downfall. Paige is also tall for a guard and a very good defender. I think U Conn was very underrated this season! Losses were to UCLA, Texas, Notre Dame, and S. Carolina. I hope I'm wrong, but I favor them in this game. 
Gino is old school, and his teams are very structured and take care of the ball while also playing good defense. Nika Muhl is two-time defensive Player of the Year and will be the best CC has played against. Has the size to defend her shot, will deny her the ball, and will get good help on the drives. Iowa plays a little loose with the ball which might be their downfall. Paige is also tall for a guard and a very good defender. I think U Conn was very underrated this season! Losses were to UCLA, Texas, Notre Dame, and S. Carolina. I hope I'm wrong, but I favor them in this game.
Did you watch the Duke game?
UConn is 33-5, went undefeated in the Big East and won the regular season crown by 3 games. Then they rolled through the post-season tourney without much effort, winning by 33, 29, and 36. Even if the Big East isn't considered particularly great top-to-bottom, that's no easy feat. Could certainly argue they're underseeded on the 3 line. And don't think Geno hasn't played the "disrespect" card plenty already, and will continue to do so in practice this week.
By far more confident playing UConn than LSU. It's a little more comparable to playing the best BT conference teams, and Iowa knows how to do that. Bueckers is a variable, but I'll take her 2s over Nebraska raining 3s like in the BTCC.
I'd think Iowa will play loose in this one.
LSU was the game with all the outside noise. This one is just about which team gets to face SC.
*Adding to the Affolter conversation. She adds a physicality that Iowa needed in the tourneys. Her production could be helping Martin as well, but her runs to the hoop might be the biggest asset to the team. Just another way to break an opponent. Syd's confidence now is higher than it's ever been. Good timing.
I'd think Iowa will play loose in this one.
LSU was the game with all the outside noise. This one is just about which team gets to face SC.
*Adding to the Affolter conversation. She adds a physicality that Iowa needed in the tourneys. Her production could be helping Martin as well, but her runs to the hoop might be the biggest asset to the team. Just another way to break an opponent. Syd's confidence now is higher than it's ever been. Good timing.
hope she drops 60 on his head!
While we’re not deep it doesn’t seem to affect our pace of play. I think we wore LSU down a bit and when Clark took off in the 3rd quarter it was lights out. UConn is definitely going to try and limit possessions. Clark, Marshall, Martin call all play 38 -40 minutes at a fast pace. Affolter is getting stronger every game and Stuelke/O Grady will continue to rotate. Push the ball at every opportunity. I think we win this game by 8-10 points. We’re just better than them.
Hell I’d wager we use it too…have you read this board all year. We didn’t need outside critics….we had plenty in here.
It’s only been about 12 games that our fans quit bitching about Lisa not bringing in a big and finally realize we couldn’t play at this break neck pace with a traditional post.
In fact up until very recently, most didn’t see us in the final 4?! I’m not a big play the “disrespect” card guy, but who has been more Pooh-poohed than us.
We are still just considered CC and a bunch of players.
Here are some numbers to give you some thought… In the UCONN versus USC regional final four players had 20+ points…
In our game, 4 had 20 plus and 3 16 plus…
Gamecocks vs Braves …1 with 16 plus.
NCst vs Texas…1 with 20, 2 with 16 plus…
Point…. we had one girl with 41 then another w/21 and then another with 16. We are so much more than CC and The has beens….
Yet, our own fans have helped perpetuate that myth.
We are faster, at least as deep, with similar size. Better at rebounding, better at 3pt shooting and we have played a very deep, varied schedule….
Brawls, drag races, foul issues, liquid hot shooting nights (by others) and rugby matches…
As @littlez said above….we are the better team.
Or, is Geno just being a sarcastic jackass now?!? Deep down…he prolly still thinks Paige is best player in the country.
Kind of goes to show that high school.player rankings/ratings aren’t infallable.
Big East is not a particularly good conference in basketball. UConn and ND, and every once in awhile Creighton has been a bit of a sleeper. Until the tournament UConn had lost (and not particularly close) to all of the good teams they had faced in the non con. Double digit losses in every one of them plus the one time they played ND they lost by double digits. Kudos to them for stepping up and especially last night for knocking off the number 1 seed. They had no particularly good wins in the non con, best wins Kansas and North Carolina? We beat VA Tech in basically a home game for them when they were fully healthy and ranked 8 in the country. K State, Drake and Iowa St both tournament teams plus the conference schedule. LSU is way more talented than UConn. Again, if we play our best we win this game handily.
I wouldn't bet either way on this game. Iowa has been playing at a very high level the past two games, and that needs to continue. I think UConn is more like Iowa any team they have played in the tourney. Geno's record speaks for itself.
Some tidbits:
UConn only goes 7 deep. 4 of the 7 are freshmen.
Starters:
Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3 Sr.....17.6 pts, 9.3 reb, 2.0 assts
Ashlynn Shade, 5'10 Fr.......11.2 pts, 3.4 reb, 1.5 assts
KK Arnold, 5'9 Fr..................8.8 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.1 assts
Paige Bueckers, 6'0 Jr.......22.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 3.9 assts
Nika Muhl, 5'11 Sr.................6.8 pts, 4.0 reb, 6.5 assts
.....................................
Bench:
Ice Brady, 6'3 Fr....................4.4 pts, 3.3 reb, 1.0 asst
Qadence Samuels, 6'0 Fr....5.0 pts, 2.6 reb,
UConn- 11 national championships;
Iowa- one runner-up appearance. If we play as well as we did against LSU, we can win. I just worry about the defense he devises to hold down CC, or, especially, disrupt CC's assist passing game. The latter worries me most.
Iowa- one runner-up appearance. If we play as well as we did against LSU, we can win. I just worry about the defense he devises to hold down CC, or, especially, disrupt CC's assist passing game. The latter worries me most.
Iowa-3 and with the juice cut out -150 on the money line. Which means Vegas has them at 60% to win the game.
ESPN BPI has UCONN at 61% to win the game. This is one of the largest discrepancies between Vegas and BPI that I can recall seeing.
The popularity of CC allows Vegas to tax Iowa some. But I'm guessing most of the discrepancy is due to the BPI tool not being quite as dialed in for women's basketball as compared to other sports. I'm guessing the algorithm contains a historical component that is assigning a little too much weight to UCONN.
My money is already on Iowa. UCONN is an "easier" matchup for Iowa than was LSU, in terms of on the glass. UCONN doesn't have the depth to run with Iowa. But Iowa will not be able to run as easily as they did against LSU. LSU took a lot of poor shots that helped Iowa run. Iowa will be facing better in-game coaching vs Auriemma. Iowa may not play quite as well as they did against LSU. They had the extra motivation of revenge and they knew they could beat LSU. But I don't expect a huge letdown, and in the end, this is Iowa vs UCONN. I think Stuelke has a good game. It really comes down to Bueckers and Clark though. Unfortunately, Iowa doesn't really have anyone to slow Bueckers down. Don't underestimate how good she is. She has ice in her veins and could very easily go off. UCONN needs such a performance from her. And if they get it they very much have a shot. If Clark is off and Bueckers is on, Iowa is in trouble. If they are both on, I lean Iowa, as CC's "on" is more potent than PB's. Although UCONN would still have a puncher's chance in this scenario. If both players are off, I still probably lean Iowa, as CC's "off" is more potent than PB's. Also, even if CC is off, her playmaking and Iowa's pace should generate enough opportunity for Iowa's depth to be the difference in a scenario where both teams' stars are off. In the end, I think Iowa has the better team with the best player. And at least a solid showing from Iowa is reasonable to assume. I think the chances are good enough that Iowa wins that there is value in betting the money line. I have already bet the money line, as I think it should probably be closer to -180. And I will probably bet the -3 as well
ESPN BPI has UCONN at 61% to win the game. This is one of the largest discrepancies between Vegas and BPI that I can recall seeing.
The popularity of CC allows Vegas to tax Iowa some. But I'm guessing most of the discrepancy is due to the BPI tool not being quite as dialed in for women's basketball as compared to other sports. I'm guessing the algorithm contains a historical component that is assigning a little too much weight to UCONN.
My money is already on Iowa. UCONN is an "easier" matchup for Iowa than was LSU, in terms of on the glass. UCONN doesn't have the depth to run with Iowa. But Iowa will not be able to run as easily as they did against LSU. LSU took a lot of poor shots that helped Iowa run. Iowa will be facing better in-game coaching vs Auriemma. Iowa may not play quite as well as they did against LSU. They had the extra motivation of revenge and they knew they could beat LSU. But I don't expect a huge letdown, and in the end, this is Iowa vs UCONN. I think Stuelke has a good game. It really comes down to Bueckers and Clark though. Unfortunately, Iowa doesn't really have anyone to slow Bueckers down. Don't underestimate how good she is. She has ice in her veins and could very easily go off. UCONN needs such a performance from her. And if they get it they very much have a shot. If Clark is off and Bueckers is on, Iowa is in trouble. If they are both on, I lean Iowa, as CC's "on" is more potent than PB's. Although UCONN would still have a puncher's chance in this scenario. If both players are off, I still probably lean Iowa, as CC's "off" is more potent than PB's. Also, even if CC is off, her playmaking and Iowa's pace should generate enough opportunity for Iowa's depth to be the difference in a scenario where both teams' stars are off. In the end, I think Iowa has the better team with the best player. And at least a solid showing from Iowa is reasonable to assume. I think the chances are good enough that Iowa wins that there is value in betting the money line. I have already bet the money line, as I think it should probably be closer to -180. And I will probably bet the -3 as well
After watching the USC game, it looked like USC could definitely hang with UConn but their shot selection (not UConn defense) was absolutely terrible. Similar to how Caitlin gets at the end of a game when she’s frustrated.
USC has a better defense than us and can rebound better but I think their game plan was weak and shot selection the worst I’ve seen in a long time. It took a lot of weird shit to go down for UConn to win. I really think our pace of play should tire them out but who knows. I thought the same for Ohio State @ Ohio State and it was us that got worn out.
USC has a better defense than us and can rebound better but I think their game plan was weak and shot selection the worst I’ve seen in a long time. It took a lot of weird shit to go down for UConn to win. I really think our pace of play should tire them out but who knows. I thought the same for Ohio State @ Ohio State and it was us that got worn out.
Lol, we didn't wear down at Ohio State..........we lost for other reasons.
I would expect Geno to have Nika all over Caitlin if possible on made baskets and make someone else take the ball up the court. When CC is the outlet she is more dangerous than normal. Passing, driving, pull up 3s
Then again, CC makes her foul in the first few minutes that strategy may be tossed quickly.
That tOSU game was an anomaly and I said so at the time. We played Cotie McMahon horrendously, and then the officials allowed her to literally run into the lane like a concrete truck over and over and over again.
These are good thoughts you’ve posted. I will quibble with you about a couple things, USC at least statistically is not a better rebounding team than us…
NCAA College Women's Basketball DI current team Stats | NCAA.com
Discover the current NCAA Division I Women's Basketball leaders in every stats category, as well as historic leaders.
www.ncaa.com
Their defense, at least field goal percentage defense also ranked 94th, better than us, but by no means sensational.
The above site is NCAA women’s basketball stats.
I unfortunately tried hard to watch the Pac 12 play this past year, but as of many of you women’s basketball fans know they were near impossible to find on TV… No wonder the PAC 12 sank into the sea.
So I anxiously tuned into that UConn game and you are correct they took a lot of stupid ass shots, and you were also correct when CC has been stressed in the past year. There have been many times she got super reckless with her shot selection, but this is a different scenario now. And she has calmed down a great deal and I believe she trusts her teammates immensely….
Sadly, I got tired and went to bed so I didn’t finish that UConn USC game, but as I said, in another thread. The PAC 12 had a hell of a year. But I’m not convinced they were quite the Juggernaut some of us thought.
USC, played two close games, vs Colorado, won 1 & lost one, and they lost twice to Utah, who was a solid team, but also in my humble opinion, not one of the 20 best in this tournament. They also lost vs 16-14 Washington, who, if versed against the worst team we lost to, Nebraska I believe would be a 10 point plus dog at least.
As I said, in the other thread, I started, I believe analytically and all the copious amounts of women basketball I watched this year. We aren’t 2 1/2 points better than UCONN. We are double digits better….
But it is still effing UCON.
Yeah, on that, I saw LSU’s hero from last year, complaining about Mulkeys strategy on Clark and honestly I do get it, but I always remark at what I consider to be a lack of logic or deep thinking…
Yes, on the surface, put your best defender on their best offensive player, but if your best defender is also one of your main scoring options and you’re putting her on a girl that has a tendency to draw fouls and run people ragged, that’s a very dangerous philosophy…
Somebody else said in another thread, and it struck me as brilliant, you almost need a defensive specialist to play her, and UCONN doesn’t have one of those and as is implied by the name “defensive specialist” you’re taking a potential offensive threat off the floor just to guard one player…
Yes she is…. I saw you over on the UConn board. There are several guys over there that have absolutely zero respect for Iowa and the couple guys that said, M Warnock is an upgrade, over Kate Martin are literally smoking crack.
I know you said as much and I have no doubt you’ve looked at the stats. But senior year over senior year or hell six year. Whatever you wanna call it, they’re not close.
Kate Martin is one hell of a basketball player.
As far as Nika goes, UCONN has been lit up by high profile guards a number of times this year. Do you really think she’s played anybody like CC?
Kiki Arnold is also crazy fast, but Do you really think they’re a dramatically more talented team than Iowa… I’m pretty sure you don’t.
Hell there were two or three guys over on that site that said C Clark wouldn’t be in UCONN top five players of all time…..Holy WTH!!!
And something I hadn’t considered until someone else brought it up… They haven’t won a national championship in close to 10 years now, right?
She did on 11/22 and did a decent job. I think Caitlin will step it up a notch and be more effective.
I do think UConn has better 2-5 talent than us, and certainly glad they don't have 2-3 different starters if they were healthy.
Edwards worries me the most.
We will need to run their legs off to have a chance. If it's a half court game, we're toast.
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