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Iowa Scoring 2015-16

seer_hawk

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Dec 21, 2001
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How will the scoring break down next season? Will we continue getting double digit scoring from a couple of players, and the bulk of players scoring between 5-8 PPG? The last 2 seasons I thought Uthoff, Gesell, and Jok might give us a 3rd or 4th double digit scorer and it didn't happen. Is it by design, a part of the growing process for the program, or the result of going 9-11 deep?

The wildcard right now is Dale Jones. We don't know positively that he will bring an experienced PF game into the mix, until we get a commitment, and signing. I like the idea of getting a JUCO athlete, that can shoot from behind the arc, and fill in at a thin position. Will players like Jones, Ellingson, Fleming, Moss, and a more experienced Jok make us more of a perimeter shooting team? Gatens and Oglesby put up 300 3's between them in 2011-12.

PPG for returning players:

Uthoff 12.4
Gesell 7.4
Jok 7.0
Woodbury 6.6
Clemmons 4.8
Uhl 2.1

Newcomers:
*Ellingson 25.4 (Sr) (hardship candidate for 2014-15)
Fleming 19.3 (Jr) (Sr?)
Wagner 13.7 (Jr) (Sr?)
Moss 10.0 (Jr) (bigger role as a Sr?)
Williams 19.1 (Sr)
 
I would expect to see Uthoff, Gessell and Woodbury's average improve by a couple points each. I see Jok really picking it up, expect him to double his output. Hoping Peter buckles down this off season, gets stronger and spends time in the gym and not in the bars.

Of the freshmen, I think Moss and Fleming will add some offensive punch. I'm really excited about Hutton and Wagner, they will improve our defense. Ellington and Williams could be the wild cards.

I think Fran will press more with this athletic team. I think the future will be bright.

Go Hawks!
 
What we are bringing back in Gesell, Clemmons, Jok, Uthoff, Woodbury:

PPG: 38.2
FG's: 471/1137 41.4%
3 PT: 128/369 34.7%
REB: 614 OREB: 177
A/T: 282/227
FT: 229/323 70%

What we are losing in White, Olaseni and Oglesby:

PPG: 27.7
FG's: 298-629 47.2%
3 PT: 49/155 32.2%
REB: 474 OREB: 159
A/T: 111/100
FT: 294/367 80%

I'm not going to type a book. But it is clear the upper classmen listed above shouldn't be counted on to replace the outgoing players. Not like last year when we had seven seniors and juniors available to shoulder the loss of Marble, Basabe and McCabe.

We NEED two or three guys to step up from Uhl, Ellingson and the five/six new players. But at least we should be pretty good defensively again. And we'll probably unleash the break quite a bit to hide our half court issues.

It's 2012/13 again with good defense, not much for shooting, lot's of new guys, and more fast breaks.
 
I agree 100% DanL. The last 2 years we had the luxury of the freshmen not needing to produce much. It will be interesting not only to see where the scoring will come from, but will Fran change things up? We'll have less size, and more athletes than Fran has had since he's been at Iowa. Do we turn up the press and try to break more? Do we shoot more from outside? The PTL will be an introduction to 5 totally new Hawkeyes, and maybe some hints.

If we don't get scoring from 2-3 newcomers our scoring average will drop considerably. I actually think it will go back up though, with the influx of more shooters and athletes. Assuming we land Jones I think Moss, Fleming and Jones are the most likely candidates, but I'm higher on Ellingson than many. He scored over 25 PPG in the Milwaukee area, which is similar to what White did in the Cleveland area. Outside of Williams all of our freshmen were tested in urban HS environments.

IMO Jok and Uhl are most likely returnee's to significantly increase their offensive output. Both had growing pains in 2014-15. I'd really love to see our scoring back in the Top 10-15 teams because that's one way to attract recruits.
 
Uthoff has the all around offensive game to be a huge scorer next season. He needs to become more consistent but, if he does, his scoring will sky rocket.

Jok has the potential to also be an elite scorer, with improved consistency and smarter floor play.

Hawks are going to need one of the 5 7/8th newcomers to produce on the boards, on the boards and on defense. Its going to be interesting. On the other hand, Woodbury, Gesell and Uthoff are probably the biggest three recruits in one class since the 06 season. There is every reason to expect a lot of improvement from each of those three and Clemmons.
 
Originally posted by The Sleeping Dog:
Uthoff has the all around offensive game to be a huge scorer next season. He needs to become more consistent but, if he does, his scoring will sky rocket.

Jok has the potential to also be an elite scorer, with improved consistency and smarter floor play.

Hawks are going to need one of the 5 7/8th newcomers to produce on the boards, on the boards and on defense. Its going to be interesting. On the other hand, Woodbury, Gesell and Uthoff are probably the biggest three recruits in one class since the 06 season. There is every reason to expect a lot of improvement from each of those three and Clemmons.
I think Utoff will be around 18ppg next year. I think he will be Iowa's go to guy in crunch situations and at 6-9 he is a tough guard for most teams. He has the overall game that is tough to stop. I think he will be very good next year for the hawks.

Jok I think will improve but will still be an inconsistent shooter. He can stroke it at times and will have big games, but also he will have some off nights. I think he will get to 12ppg next year. I think you will see some 20+pts night from him. He can get hot and light it up in a hurry.

The wild cards are Clemmons & Gessell. If they can reproduce what the did down the stretch, Iowa will be very tough. Gesell started to attack more and get into the lane, which is huge for the hawks. Clemmons started to take care of the ball and knock down some 3balls. If we can get 14-18ppg out of those two combined, that will be HUGE going forward for the hawks. Our guard play killed us at times this year, we need these two to step it up and play like Seniors should.

Woodie/Uhl/Ellingson/JUCO If these guys can hold their own and each average 5-7pts a game. That will be nice. I don't look for Woodie to dominate, that's not the player he is on offense. Defensively he can plug up the lane and he is going to have to stay out of foul trouble next year. Uhl has the ability to attack the rim and he knocked down a couple of 3's this year. IF he can become more consistent he could be a good one, very athletic. Ellingson have no idea on him, sounds like a shooter.

I look for Moss & Wagnar to come in and play right away. Moss has the complete game and is very confident in his shot. He is a 6-5 wing who can shoot it from 3 or he can attack the rim. he can handle the ball just fine and he played against some very good competition this year. He will be college ready when he steps on campus. Wagnar I Saw him in the state finals (only game live) and he looked pretty solid. He is 6-6, but plays like he is 6-8. He is a banger down low and goes after every rebound. He has the ability to handle the ball and attack from the wing is needed. Lead his State Championship team in scoring and rebounding. I think these two players will step in and play right away. If they both can average 5ppg game that is huge for the hawks. I seriously look for Moss to be more towards double digits, the kid can flat out play.

Flemming, Williams, and Hutton- These three will see some time as well. I think Flemming is ready as he has played basketball all over the US and played against some great competition. I like that he is able to knock down the 3ball and he plays on a team where passing the ball isn't required (some players just shoot it every time). So the fact that he is able to score 12-18pts a game on that team is pretty solid. He is efficient when he touches the ball.

I honestly don't know anything about Williams except that one writer in Chicago tabbed both him and moss at Top 10 in the state in 2015. That a big honor considering how many Div 1 players come out of Chicago area every year. Hutton sounds like a defensive stopper and hopefully can get in early with his defensive effort.

Sorry long post here, but I think the returning guys will all increase their production and I look for a couple of the freshman to step up. The problem with a young team off the bench is some nights they will look good and other nights they will look bad. Just have to weather the bad moments.
 
Originally posted by DanL53:

What we are bringing back in Gesell, Clemmons, Jok, Uthoff, Woodbury:

PPG: 38.2
FG's: 471/1137 41.4%
3 PT: 128/369 34.7%
REB: 614 OREB: 177
A/T: 282/227
FT: 229/323 70%

What we are losing in White, Olaseni and Oglesby:

PPG: 27.7
FG's: 298-629 47.2%
3 PT: 49/155 32.2%
REB: 474 OREB: 159
A/T: 111/100
FT: 294/367 80%

I'm not going to type a book. But it is clear the upper classmen listed above shouldn't be counted on to replace the outgoing players. Not like last year when we had seven seniors and juniors available to shoulder the loss of Marble, Basabe and McCabe.

We NEED two or three guys to step up from Uhl, Ellingson and the five/six new players. But at least we should be pretty good defensively again. And we'll probably unleash the break quite a bit to hide our half court issues.

It's 2012/13 again with good defense, not much for shooting, lot's of new guys, and more fast breaks.
I disagree to an extent. Our current upperclassmen are going to see a substantial increase in playing time. Under Fran we have become accustomed to deep benches and large player rotations, however with fewer players with quality experience we could potentially see more reliance on a smaller group of players. We have seen other teams do this with great success. Take Wisconsin, for example. When Jackson went down they consistently played only 7 players and their 2 bench players often played less than 10 minutes a game. I doubt we see Iowa go to this type of rotation, but the option is available if the underclassmen are clearly not as productive.

Additionally, in terms of efficiency the group leaving is not much different than the group returning. The group leaving averaged 1.15 points per shot and the group returning averaged 1.14 points per shot. I think it is reasonable to expect some improvement in the group returning.

We essentially lose 28 points per game. I think we could count on our returning upperclassmen to account for 75% of that total if need be. Let's say we see these increases:

Uthoff averages 18 points per game (not unreasonble, it's a similar jump that White saw in scoring, and Uthoff is a more talented offensive player).
Gesell increases to 11 points per game (a reasonable estimate, especially if we project him to play 32+ minutes per game)
Woodbury averages 8 points per game (probably on the low end of expectations given how many more minutes he will likely play)
Jok average 12 points per game (again reasonable based on larger role and increased minutes)
Clemmons averages 8 points per game (reasonable based on increased minutes)

I feel all of those predictions are relatively conservative if all of those players see an increase in playing time such that they are playing 30+ minutes per game. These averages would account for 75% of the lost scoring, and we would only need to find 8 points per game from the group of Uhl, Ellingson, and the incoming recruits. All of this is very reasonable, IMO.
 
I'd look for something around the following...

Uthoff - 17 ppg
Jok - 12
Gesell - 10
Woody - 10
Uhl- 7
Clemmons - 7
Ellingson - 4
Incoming FR - 10 ppg as a group

If Jones does commit, mark him in around 8 ppg, and drop a couple of the guys below him a point or two. I'd think 76-78 ppg total, maybe a bit higher with Jones. With the types of players coming in, and the number of athletic wing types, I'd think they'll be looking to run more next year and get back to where they were a year or two ago scoring wise.


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