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Iowa v. Western Michigan - Friday, March 24th

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
7,552
10,497
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First pitch - 4:05 p.m. Weather forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Current RPI Ranking: #34 - Iowa is 4 points behind #33 University of Texas-San Antonio and 4 points ahead of #35 Florida Gulf Coast University.
RPI Metrics: An Iowa win will result in a loss of 9 RPI points. An Iowa loss will result in the loss of 194 RPI points.
RPI anomaly of the day . . . if SDSU beats winless Northern Colorado, Iowa will gain 41.9 RPI points. If #1 LSU beats #3 Arkansas, Iowa will gain 1.4 points.

Interesting fact. Iowa debuted in Baseball America's Top 25 teams this week. It is the first time that Iowa has been ranked in BA's Top 25 since 2015.

Both Iowa and WMU have posted their weekend starting pitching. Iowa's rotation will be Brecht (Fri); Simpson (Sat) and Langenberg (Sun). I'm not sure if Simpson's start is a reward for his excellent pitching against SDSU and some "mixed" results for Morgan or whether there is something else going on with Morgan (i.e. some type of injury). Heller will probably address that issue in today's pre-game interview.

WMU will start Brady Miller today. Here's his webpage on the WMU baseball site: https://wmubroncos.com/sports/baseball/roster/brady-miller/12618

Miller has been WMU's designated "Friday" starter all year. He's pitched against LSU, Northern Kentucky, North Carolina A&T, Ball State and Eastern Michigan. His last outing against Eastern Michigan (10-7 on the year) was solid. 7 IP - 3H/2BB - 0R - 7Ks. That written, his other efforts weren't so noteworthy.

LSU - 5 IP - 4H/3BB - 5R - 3Ks.
Northern Kentucky - 3.1 IP - 6H/2BB - 5R - 2Ks.
NC A&T - 6 IP - 9H/0BB - 3R (2ER) - 5Ks.
Ball State - 5 IP - 10H/3BB - 8R - 6Ks.

That's a lot of baserunners on a per inning average. Really good chance for Iowa's bats to make some noise early in the game and get Brecht a lead.

As to the latter point, another step in Brecht's journey to establish himself as a dominant top-of-the-rotation pitcher. It's the last tune-up before B1G play and, barring unforeseen circumstances, he'll take the mound a week from today against pre-season B1G favorite Maryland. Suffice it to write, it would be outstanding if he closes out non-conference play with an outing filled with consistent strikes, getting ahead of hitters, minimal walks and weak contact. I'd like nothing more than for Brecht to get "locked in" right before conference play begins.

If Iowa brings its B or B+ games this weekend, very good chance that Iowa can keep the winning streak alive.

As has been posted my many others both this year and past, RPI is not kind to B1G teams. Even if Iowa goes 2-1 in this series, they will likely fall to the upper 50s/low 60s in the RPI standings with very few opportunities to make up ground against B1G teams going forward. "Very little margin for error" is a massive understatement. That written, I like what Iowa brings to the mound on weekends and I'm cautiously optimistic that Iowa's winning streak will be intact before the Hawks head to Normal to play ISU on Tuesday.

For more information, see the tweet below and the link embedded in the tweet.

 
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Missed the first 10 minutes of the pre-game interview.

Just caught the tail-end of the interview with Sean McGrath, Iowa's pitching coach. Missed the discussion about Marcus Morgan other than McGrath describing Morgan as having a lot of really good innings but getting hurt by

Voelker is viewed as the number one option coming out of the bullpen to throw multiple innings. He didn't quantify but I took it to mean more than 2 innings. Voelker will almost certainly follow Brecht today unless Brecht pitches 7 innings or if Brecht pitches 6 innings and Iowa has a significant lead.

Sounds like they are really looking for Brecht to start getting deeper into games.

Gave some expected lip service to the idea that WMU has good hitters that won't give in to Iowa's pitching.

Heller's pre-game comments.

Wind blowing straight in . . . could be a run limiting issue. Possible 1" to 3" inches of snow overnight and tomorrow a.m. Could be a potential issue getting tomorrow's game in as scheduled. His fingers are crossed.

Sounds like Brecht will stay as the Friday starter as long as he pitches as he has been. Langenberg, if he pitches well, will likely be the Sunday starter going forward. As for Morgan, he'll pitch out of the bullpen this weekend (Heller also refers to the 4 good/1 bad or 3 good/1 bad innings). Heller comments that Morgan's "bad" inning hasn't been a "meh" inning, it was a "really bad" inning and it makes difficult choices for the coaches when he is having that "really bad" inning.

Wil Mulflur is back from injury. Not 100% but will be available to hit. Heller says that getting Mulflur back is important in light of Chase Moseley's hamstring injury. As for Moseley . . . same story as Wednesday . . . out for an extended period of time. Once again, Heller didn't elaborate on specifics.

With Moseley not being able to play, it will be a rotation of Ben Wilmes and Brayden Frazier playing RF for the time being. Wilmes is playing RF today.

As for WMU's starting pitcher, he throws a ton of sliders. It is, by far, his best pitch. Had a lot of success with his slider against Eastern Michigan. EMU's hitters chased a lot of sliders out of the strike zone. If Iowa hitters can force him to throw his other pitches, Iowa has a good chance of having successful at-bats.

Heller comments that getting to WMU's bullpen is key. He judiciously commented that WMU just hasn't been able to find an arm that has been successful coming out of their pen. If they do anything well, they throw strikes. They don't walk a ton of hitters. But their strikes are hittable strikes. Thus, patience is key. WMU's pitchers will be trying to get Iowa's hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. If patient, Iowa could face some very advantageous hitter's counts and face hittable pitches in the strike zone.

Heller's keys to winning:
1. Brecht throwing strikes. Keep infield and outfield "on their toes" as opposed to lulling defense to sleep with lots of pitches/numerous walks.
2. Limiting errors and defense being ready for "weak contact" which seems to be normal when Brecht is on the mound.
 
T1

Walk
FC (6-4)
Single
K
K

Both Ks were on full counts. 26 pitches for Brecht in inning #1.

Going to a meeting (who schedules a meeting at 4:30 on a Friday?) . . . will be away from the game for awhile.
 
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