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Iowa WBB 2024-2025 Season Thread

As someone noted above it does look like some data from last year is still included. I compared Nolan to HHS last year. For the most part they were pretty aligned, but HHS would have outliers where they were impactfully different. It seemed HHS was generally more accurate.
Score
-24​
-15​

Just did another poorman's scorecard like the one I posted yesterday and gap widen a little more between HHS and Nolan ELO. I'll monitor it over the season to see how HHS and Nolan ELO pans out.
Score
-26​
-11​

The one thing noticed about HerHoopStats is they change the history of rankings at the time that game was played. That's why when I go back 9-10 days the team's ranking are all the same as if no ranking updates happened in that time frame. I did notice HHS changed the rankings on most teams from yesterday. Don't think I like that feature where they change the rankings of past games to what their ranking is today as it can skew who the real underdog/fav was at that point in time. That's just me as others may like past game rank changes for other reasons.

Example:
Iowa may be rated #10 a week ago when they played Drake.
Today Iowa is rated #5.
HHS goes back and chances our ranking of that Drake game to #5 to match today's ranking.
That's what I have noticed on my end without a subscription.
 
#21 Oregon lost to SDSU
#20 NCST lost by 17 to #7 LSU
#19 IL lost by 23 to #14 Kentucky
#18 Ole Miss lost by 13 to #2 UConn
#17 TCU plays #3 Notre Dame on Fri
 
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Iowa with a 92% - 95.9% chance to win from all 3 models.

Iowa projected with a 21-22 point win today by Massey.
col_ri.gif
col_iowa.jpg
Rhode Island
Kingston, RI, USA
Iowa
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely5980
Median5980
Mean58.8380.80
Win Probability7%93%


Iowa projected with a ~14 point win today by Torvik.



Credit to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line of ~23 point win.
Rhode Island - 95.9% chance of winning; 78-56 (22.6)


Warren Nolan predicts 18 point Iowa win (78 - 60).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
15​
5​
19​
3​
7​
28​
4​
11.6​
Rhode Island
117​
81​
99​
150​
159​
157​
103​
123.7​


Rankings Key:

Again, Nolan's ELO seems closest to the average computer model rankings for this game.
 
Last edited:
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Just did another poorman's scorecard like the one I posted yesterday and gap widen a little more between HHS and Nolan ELO. I'll monitor it over the season to see how HHS and Nolan ELO pans out.
Score
-26​
-11​

The one thing noticed about HerHoopStats is they change the history of rankings at the time that game was played. That's why when I go back 9-10 days the team's ranking are all the same as if no ranking updates happened in that time frame. I did notice HHS changed the rankings on most teams from yesterday. Don't think I like that feature where they change the rankings of past games to what their ranking is today as it can skew who the real underdog/fav was at that point in time. That's just me as others may like past game rank changes for other reasons.

Example:
Iowa may be rated #10 a week ago when they played Drake.
Today Iowa is rated #5.
HHS goes back and chances our ranking of that Drake game to #5 to match today's ranking.
That's what I have noticed on my end without a subscription.
HHS updates scores almost immediately and you cannot go back in time and look at ratings for a specific date unless you track outside on your own. Thanks for all of the data.
 
Iowa with a 92% - 95.9% chance to win from all 3 models.

Iowa projected with a 21-22 point win today by Massey.
col_ri.gif
col_iowa.jpg
Rhode Island
Kingston, RI, USA
Iowa
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely5980
Median5980
Mean58.8380.80
Win Probability7%93%


Iowa projected with a ~14 point win today by Torvik.



Credit to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line of ~23 point win.
Rhode Island - 95.9% chance of winning; 78-56 (22.6)


Warren Nolan predicts 18 point Iowa win (78 - 60).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
15​
5​
19​
3​
7​
28​
4​
11.6​
Rhode Island
117​
81​
99​
150​
159​
157​
103​
123.7​


Rankings Key:

Again, Nolan's ELO seems closest to the average computer model rankings for this game.
Vegas line is Iowa by 24.5
 
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A couple of BigTen teams have been rocked by injuries. I've noticed Cotie McMahon hasn't played in OSU's last three games and is apparently in a boot.
 
Iowa with a 88% - 96.9% chance to win from all 3 percentage models.

Iowa projected with a 16-18 point win today by Massey.
col_iowa.jpg
col_byu.jpg
Iowa
Iowa City, IA, USA
BYU
Provo, UT, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely8064
Median8164
Mean82.1464.28
Win Probability88%12%


Iowa projected with a ~12 point win today by Torvik.


Credit to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line of 26 point win.
BYU - 96.9% Chance of winning; 26 point win


Warren Nolan predicts 15 point Iowa win (78 - 63).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
10​
7​
21​
3​
7​
37​
4​
12.7​
BYU
75​
118​
84​
74​
70​
99​
93​
87.6​

Rankings Key:
 
Last edited:
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Iowa with a 88% - *98% chance to win from all 3 percentage models.

Iowa projected with a 16-18 point win today by Massey.
col_iowa.jpg
col_byu.jpg
Iowa
Iowa City, IA, USA
BYU
Provo, UT, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely8064
Median8164
Mean82.1464.28
Win Probability88%12%


Iowa projected with a ~12 point win today by Torvik.



Credit to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line of ~29 point win. *Think this is an old line from a few days ago and it most likely changed by now. Hopefully they can post an updated line today.
BYU - 97.7% Chance of winning; 86-57 (28.6)


Warren Nolan predicts 15 point Iowa win (78 - 63).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
10​
7​
21​
3​
7​
37​
4​
12.7​
BYU
75​
118​
84​
74​
70​
99​
93​
87.6​

Rankings Key:
It’s changed but not much. 96.9 percent chance with a 26 point win. Now number 7 in HHS ranking.
 
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Iowa with a 92% - 95.9% chance to win from all 3 models.

Iowa projected with a 21-22 point win today by Massey.
col_ri.gif
col_iowa.jpg
Rhode Island
Kingston, RI, USA
Iowa
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely5980
Median5980
Mean58.8380.80
Win Probability7%93%


Iowa projected with a ~14 point win today by Torvik.



Credit to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line of ~23 point win.
Rhode Island - 95.9% chance of winning; 78-56 (22.6)


Warren Nolan predicts 18 point Iowa win (78 - 60).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
15​
5​
19​
3​
7​
28​
4​
11.6​
Rhode Island
117​
81​
99​
150​
159​
157​
103​
123.7​


Rankings Key:

Again, Nolan's ELO seems closest to the average computer model rankings for this game.
I like this. Keep it up.🙂
 
Iowa versus Iowa State Thursday night on the 11th 8:00 PM game. Weather looks to be 30° and eight mile an hour winds so it shouldn’t be too bad standing outside looking to buy. What do you suppose the scalpers will be asking for tickets ? Thanks to you that might know approximately.
 
Iowa versus Iowa State Thursday night on the 11th 8:00 PM game. Weather looks to be 30° and eight mile an hour winds so it shouldn’t be too bad standing outside looking to buy. What do you suppose the scalpers will be asking for tickets ? Thanks to you that might know approximately.
I think you should look at SeatGeek instead of trying to get a ticket outside the arena.
 
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Thank you. Looked at some seats and.WOW!!! $400 -$600 per ticket and those were good seats but not great seats and CC is gone.😲
 
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Team players of the week goes to none other than...

Iowa's 8-0 start lands the Hawkeyes as women's college basketball's team of the week

"NCAA.com team of the week, Iowa finished 8-0 in November, serving notice that the Hawkeyes will continue to flourish even after the departure of college basketball’s all-time leading scorer in Caitlin Clark and after the retirement of legendary head coach Lisa Bluder."

"First-year Iowa head coach Jan Jensen became the first coach in Iowa women’s basketball history to begin her tenure 8-0."


What's glaring omitted in the last two wins (past week) that it was accomplished without top scorer and assist leader Lucy Olsen. Plus, two very rusty and/or less practiced frosh PG subs had taken her place to do it.
 
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