ADVERTISEMENT

Iowa WBB 2024-2025 Season Thread

Today's Game Computer Models Summary:
Iowa with a 89% - 97.3% chance to win from 4 percentage models.
Iowa to win by 17 - 27.8 points from 4 spread models.
Avg Team Rank is #18 Iowa vs #100 Purdue from 7 ranking models.

Massey Predicts:
Iowa - 89% chance of winning with ~17 - 18 point win (~63 - 81).
col_purdue.gif
col_iowa.jpg
Purdue
West Lafayette, IN, USA
Iowa
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely6380
Median6380
Mean62.7681.00
Win Probability12%89%


Torvik Predicts:
Iowa - 95% chance of winning with a ~19 point win (78 - 59).


HerHoopStats Predicts:
Iowa - 97.3% chance of winning with a 27.8 point win (87 - 59.2)
Credit goes to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line.


Warren Nolan Predicts:
Iowa - 95% chance of winning with a 21 point win (83 - 62).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
22​
10​
23​
9​
21​
28​
14​
18.1​
Purdue
101​
111​
93​
80​
94​
114​
109​
100.3​

Team Rankings Key:
 
Last edited:
Today's Game Computer Models Summary:
Iowa with a 71% - 81.8% chance to win from 4 percentage models.
Iowa to win by 8 - 12 points from 4 spread models.
Avg Team Rank is #18 Iowa vs #58 Penn St from 7 ranking models.

Massey Predicts:
Iowa - 71% chance of winning with ~8 - 9 point win (~82 - 74).
col_iowa.jpg
col_pennst.jpg
Iowa
Iowa City, IA, USA
Penn St
University Park, PA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely8172
Median8173
Mean82.2273.58
Win Probability71%30%


Torvik Predicts:
Iowa - 79% chance of winning with a ~8 point win (78 - 70).


HerHoopStats Predicts:
Iowa - 81.8% chance of winning with a ~12 point win (83 - 70.7)
Credit goes to@UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line.


Warren Nolan Predicts:
Iowa - 78% chance of winning with a 9 point win (79 - 70).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
20​
9​
21​
11​
21​
28​
15​
17.9​
Penn St
70​
49​
60​
51​
72​
63​
44​
58.4​

Team Rankings Key:
 
Last edited:
HawksGone Wild,

HHS has Iowa with a 81.8% chance to win. 83-70.7 (12.3)

Update - Vegas opened with Iowa as a 15.5 favorite
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: HawksGoneWild1
We are now essentially at the middle of the 2024-2025 season. We have 2 players entering the season with substantial starting experience, half of our rotation are first year players including 4 freshman, we don’t have a dominate player ( Gustafson, Boyle, Clark ) and our schedule todate has been more difficult than most of the teams in the conference, plus we have a first year coach, yet we are 12-2! At this point things become more challenging. We are not going 12-2 in our next 14 games! So perspective is needed as the team goes forward. This is a transition year- I suggest patience. We will need to steal some games to live up to the unrealistic expectations of some. Go Hawkeyes!!! “Love the ones your with! “
 
We are now essentially at the middle of the 2024-2025 season. We have 2 players entering the season with substantial starting experience, half of our rotation are first year players including 4 freshman, we don’t have a dominate player ( Gustafson, Boyle, Clark ) and our schedule todate has been more difficult than most of the teams in the conference, plus we have a first year coach, yet we are 12-2! At this point things become more challenging. We are not going 12-2 in our next 14 games! So perspective is needed as the team goes forward. This is a transition year- I suggest patience. We will need to steal some games to live up to the unrealistic expectations of some. Go Hawkeyes!!! “Love the ones your with! “

Well said, I agree with your thoughts on this being a transition year, The one thing I feel about this years team is that they have unrealized potential, Not conference championship potential but potential to play more cohesive ball. It still feels to me like the team still hasn’t truly fit the pieces together, Maybe it simply won’t happen. They can be frustrating at times but I enjoy watching them play.
 
We are now essentially at the middle of the 2024-2025 season. We have 2 players entering the season with substantial starting experience, half of our rotation are first year players including 4 freshman, we don’t have a dominate player ( Gustafson, Boyle, Clark ) and our schedule todate has been more difficult than most of the teams in the conference, plus we have a first year coach, yet we are 12-2! At this point things become more challenging. We are not going 12-2 in our next 14 games! So perspective is needed as the team goes forward. This is a transition year- I suggest patience. We will need to steal some games to live up to the unrealistic expectations of some. Go Hawkeyes!!! “Love the ones your with! “
I don’t feel Iike anyone has unrealistic expectations of this team. Most everyone has said that they should finish in the top half of the big ten with a chance to reach the sweet sixteen. That feels about right.
 
Well said, I agree with your thoughts on this being a transition year, The one thing I feel about this years team is that they have unrealized potential, Not conference championship potential but potential to play more cohesive ball. It still feels to me like the team still hasn’t truly fit the pieces together, Maybe it simply won’t happen. They can be frustrating at times but I enjoy watching them play.
It’s what happens when you play this many first year players. Roles need to develop organically over time. You can’t force it.
 
I don’t feel Iike anyone has unrealistic expectations of this team. Most everyone has said that they should finish in the top half of the big ten with a chance to reach the sweet sixteen. That feels about right.
Maryland game this weekend will go a long way toward defining Iowa’s upside. Barring injuries to key players, can’t see Iowa beating USC or UCLA anywhere, and can’t see Iowa beating OSU in Columbus. Don’t know if Iowa can compete with Maryland, but anxious to watch.
 
We are now essentially at the middle of the 2024-2025 season. We have 2 players entering the season with substantial starting experience, half of our rotation are first year players including 4 freshman, we don’t have a dominate player ( Gustafson, Boyle, Clark ) and our schedule todate has been more difficult than most of the teams in the conference, plus we have a first year coach, yet we are 12-2! At this point things become more challenging. We are not going 12-2 in our next 14 games! So perspective is needed as the team goes forward. This is a transition year- I suggest patience. We will need to steal some games to live up to the unrealistic expectations of some. Go Hawkeyes!!! “Love the ones your with! “


This X 450 million 🥳
 
The good thing is we get UCLA, USC and Maryland all at home in front of packed houses. Maryland over the years ( until recently) has given us lots of trouble. Always talented and physical. Just looked at the schedule again and I'm saying 10-8 in the league.
 
The good thing is we get UCLA, USC and Maryland all at home in front of packed houses. . . .
Most people seem to agree with you, but I would rather have home games this season against Oregon and Washington and play the LA schools on the road. My suspicion is at the end of the season we will look back at Minnesota and Michigan State as having really good conference seasons, aided by playing USC, UCLA, MD and OSU all the road, meaning they played nine more winnable games at home. In this transition year, I would rather have the Gophers’ and Spartans’ schedules.

Iowa’s remaining road schedule is also a bear because Iowa plays Wisconsin, Northwestern, Rutgers and Purdue (already played) at home this season, and already played PSU on the road. The remaining 7 road games are all loseable.
 
Last edited:
Most people seem to agree with you, but I would rather have home games this season against Oregon and Washington and play the LA schools on the road. My suspicion is at the end of the season we will look back at Minnesota and Michigan State as having really good conference seasons, aided by playing USC, UCLA, MD and OSU all the road, meaning they played nine more winnable games at home. In this transition year, I would rather have the Gophers’ and Spartans’ schedules.

Iowa’s remaining road schedule is also a bear because Iowa plays Wisconsin, Northwestern, Rutgers and Purdue (already played) at home this season, and already played PSU on the road. The remaining 7 road games are all loseable.
That's a really good point. Honestly we'll be the underdog in almost every road game. Hoping for wins at Illinois, either Oregon or Washington on that trip, and not sure who else we're going to beat. Could possibly beat Nebraska, but Minny is 14-1, Ohio St is 13-0, Michigan is really good and they have played a really tough schedule. If we lose to Maryland we could be looking at a losing conference season.
 
Conference is tough, and only getting tougher. Have to win the winnables and steal a few road games.

I think Iowa can actually beat Maryland at home, but it doesn't seem likely with the current play from the team. Maybe they can put some things together this week.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hawksbyamillion
Getting 3 of the 4 worst teams plus USC, UCLA, and Maryland at home gave Iowa a tougher chance to pick up some road wins. Losing that Michigan State game sucked..

If they can’t pull the upset vs the top 3 at home they’ll have to win all others at home plus steal at least 2 more on the road just to get to .500 in conference

Those are
1/9 at Illinois(just lost at home to Wash)
1/19 at Oregon
1/22 at Washington
2/6 at Minnesota
2/10 at Nebraska
2/17 at #10 Ohio St
2/26 at #24 Michigan..in the middle of the last 2 is a home game vs #1 UCLA
 
Getting 3 of the 4 worst teams plus USC, UCLA, and Maryland at home gave Iowa a tougher chance to pick up some road wins. Losing that Michigan State game sucked..

If they can’t pull the upset vs the top 3 at home they’ll have to win all others at home plus steal at least 2 more on the road just to get to .500 in conference

Those are
1/9 at Illinois(just lost at home to Wash)
1/19 at Oregon
1/22 at Washington
2/6 at Minnesota
2/10 at Nebraska
2/17 at #10 Ohio St
2/26 at #24 Michigan..in the middle of the last 2 is a home game vs #1 UCLA
That's a rough road schedule along w/the Cali schools.
 
Getting 3 of the 4 worst teams plus USC, UCLA, and Maryland at home gave Iowa a tougher chance to pick up some road wins. Losing that Michigan State game sucked..

If they can’t pull the upset vs the top 3 at home they’ll have to win all others at home plus steal at least 2 more on the road just to get to .500 in conference

Those are
1/9 at Illinois(just lost at home to Wash)
1/19 at Oregon
1/22 at Washington
2/6 at Minnesota
2/10 at Nebraska
2/17 at #10 Ohio St
2/26 at #24 Michigan..in the middle of the last 2 is a home game vs #1 UCLA
Maryland might be the defining home game of the season. Not going to beat either of the LA schools, barring injury.
 
  • Like
Reactions: littlez
I still have faith this team will gradually improve, especially given the new pieces and lack of experience. We nearly won at Michigan State; you may say "they're only 10-4". But, their worst loss was to #9 Oklahoma. The others: #1 UCLA, #2 South Carolina and #4 USC. Be patient.
Not saying they won't just that this schedule is a gauntlet. 10-8 in my opinion would be a great season with this schedule.
 
Maryland might be the defining home game of the season. Not going to beat either of the LA schools, barring injury.
IA can beat USC at home. Their coach could definitely let that happen - don't trust her one bit. UCLA- snowballs chance in hell.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: oldhawk56
I still have faith this team will gradually improve, especially given the new pieces and lack of experience. We nearly won at Michigan State; you may say "they're only 10-4". But, their worst loss was to #9 Oklahoma. The others: #1 UCLA, #2 South Carolina and #4 USC. Be patient.
You’ve mixed up Michigan and Michigan State. Sparty hasn’t played South Carolina, Oklahoma, USC or UCLA as of today. Michigan has. Michigan State’s losses are to Alabama and Maryland.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hawkod
Today's Game Computer Model's Summary:
Iowa with a 65% - 76.7% chance to win from 4 percentage models.
Iowa to win by 4 - 10 points from 4 spread models.
Avg Team Rank is #18 Iowa vs #18 Maryland from 7 ranking models.

With both teams having basically the same avg computer ranking, I say CHA will be the advantage today. I haven't seen much from Maryland games to scare us yet.

Massey Predicts:
Iowa - 65% chance of winning with a 5 - 7 point win (79 - 72).
col_md.gif
col_iowa.jpg
Maryland (#8)
College Park, MD, USA
Iowa (#23)
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely7279
Median7378
Mean73.1579.05
Win Probability35%65%


Torvik Predicts:
Iowa - 65% chance of winning with a 4 point win (74 - 70).


HerHoopStats Predicts:
Iowa - 76.7% chance of winning with a 10 point win (82 - 72)
Credit goes to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line.


Warren Nolan Predicts:
Iowa - 70% chance of winning with a 6 point win (79 - 73).


Team Rankings
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
20​
9​
21​
11​
21​
28​
19​
18.4​
Maryland
10​
25​
27​
10​
8​
26​
20​
18.0​

Team Rankings Key:
 
Last edited:
Today's Game Computer Model's Summary:
Iowa with a 50% - 73.1% chance to win from 4 percentage models.
Iowa to win by 1 - 9 points from 4 spread models.
Avg Team Rank is #22 Iowa vs #41 Illinois from 7 ranking models.

Massey Predicts:
Iowa - 73% chance of winning with a 8 - 9 point win (77 - 68).
col_iowa.jpg
col_illinois.png
Iowa (#23)
Iowa City, IA, USA
Illinois (#NR)
Champaign-Urbana, IL, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely7768
Median7769
Mean78.0269.10
Win Probability73%28%


Torvik Predicts:
Iowa - 50% chance of winning with a 1 point win (71 - 70).



HerHoopStats Predicts:
Iowa - 73.1% chance of winning with a 7.7 point win (75.2 - 67.5).
Credit goes to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line.


Warren Nolan Predicts:
Iowa - 67% chance of winning with a 5 point win (76 - 71).


Team Rankings
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
24​
10​
28​
13​
26​
29​
21​
21.6​
Illinois
51​
39​
36​
45​
39​
37​
39​
40.9​

Team Rankings Key:
 
Last edited:
HawksGoneWild,

HHS Line: Iowa 73.1% to win 75.2-67.5 (7.7)

Btw, I found how to look at former games predictions if there are any of the early season games you are missing the HHS data.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HawksGoneWild1
HawksGoneWild,

HHS Line: Iowa 73.1% to win 75.2-67.5 (7.7)

Btw, I found how to look at former games predictions if there are any of the early season games you are missing the HHS data.

Yes, I believe one way is to click on my HHS Team Rankings Key link from the Maryland post above (it's a reference to the day the game happened). I just discovered it myself and started using this "day of the game" link instead of the most recent past games for this reason.

It shows the actual score of the game along with this prediction, which matches the Maryland line you provided to us.
GAMEPREDICTION
TIMEMATCHUPRESULTWINNERSCOREMARGINTOTAL
6:00 PM E#23 Maryland @ #10 IowaMaryland 74 - 66Maryland (23.3%)71.9 - 81.7
-9.8​
153.6​

You may have found another way as well.

Thanks again for continuing to supply us with the Iowa HHS line.
 
Last edited:
Today's Game Computer Model's Summary:
Iowa with a 66% - 75% chance to win from 4 percentage models.
Iowa to win by 5 - 8 points from 4 spread models.
Avg Team Rank is #24 Iowa vs #33 Indiana from 7 ranking models.

Massey Predicts:
Iowa - 66% chance of winning with a 5 - 6 point win (68 - 74)
col_in.jpg
col_iowa.jpg
Indiana (#NR)
Bloomington, IN, USA
Iowa (#23)
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely6874
Median6974
Mean69.2174.91
Win Probability34%66%


Torvik Predicts:
Iowa - 75% chance of winning with a ~6 point win (69 - 63)


HerHoopStats Predicts:
Iowa - 74.6% chance of winning with a 8.3 point win (75.6 - 67.3).
Credit goes to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line.


Warren Nolan Predicts:
Iowa - 67% chance of winning with a 5 point win (75 - 70).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
30​
12​
30​
14​
32​
30​
22​
24.3​
Indiana
25​
25​
39​
27​
37​
38​
37​
32.6​

Team Rankings Key:
 
Last edited:
At this point, I'd like to see a rotation like this moving forward:

1) Olsen- 30, Guyton- 10
2) McCabe- 30, Guyton- 10
3) Stremlow- 25, Feuerbach- 15
4) Affolter- 20, Mallegni- 15, Stuelke-5
5) Stuelke- 25, Heiden-10, O'Grady-5

Stuelke at the 4 just hasn't worked. I'd abandon it almost completely. The small lineup worked last year and can again.

My goal with this configuration is to balance winning now with future development. McCabe, Guyton, and Stremlow play significant minutes, and Mallegni gets more time than she has been.

The 5 spot is the toughest for me. O'Grady has exceeded my wildest expectations. That said, I think if Stuelke returned to the 5 she could get her shooting percentage back closer to what it was last year. And she's a much better rebounder. Plus Heiden needs consistent minutes. She has potential to be the rim protector Iowa hasn't had in years.
 
Today's Game Computer Model's Summary:
Iowa with a 64% - 78.1% chance to win from 4 percentage models.
Iowa to win by 4 - 10 points from 4 spread models.
Avg Team Rank is #27 Iowa vs #33 Nebraska from 7 ranking models.

Massey Predicts:
Iowa - 75% chance of winning by 9 - 10 points (68 - 77).
col_neb.gif
col_iowa.jpg
Nebraska (#NR)
Lincoln, NE, USA
Iowa (#NR)
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely6877
Median6777
Mean67.7177.35
Win Probability25%75%


Torvik Predicts:
Iowa - 64% chance of winning by ~4 points (71 - 67).


HerHoopStats Predicts:
Iowa - 78.1% chance of winning by 10 points (77 - 67).
Credit goes to @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line.


Warren Nolan Predicts:
Iowa - 76% chance of winning by 8 points (76 - 68).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
36​
15​
32​
17​
33​
32​
26​
27.3​
Nebraska
31​
32​
33​
37​
29​
33​
36​
33.0​

Team Rankings Key:
 
Last edited:
Today's Game Computer Model's Summary:
Iowa with a 64% - 76% chance to win from 4 percentage models.
Iowa to win by 4 - 10 points from 4 spread models.
Avg Team Rank is #27 Iowa vs #33 Nebraska from 7 ranking models.

Massey Predicts:
Iowa - 75% chance of winning by 9 - 10 points (68 - 77).
col_neb.gif
col_iowa.jpg
Nebraska (#NR)
Lincoln, NE, USA
Iowa (#NR)
Iowa City, IA, USA
Actual Score00
Most Likely6877
Median6777
Mean67.7177.35
Win Probability25%75%


Torvik Predicts:
Iowa - 64% chance of winning by ~4 points (71 - 67).



HerHoopStats Predicts:
Iowa - ?% chance of winning by ? points (? - ?).
Awaiting @UptownHawk for providing HerHoopStats line.


Warren Nolan Predicts:
Iowa - 76% chance of winning by 8 points (76 - 68).


Team Rankings:
ELOHHSBTKMAMSTSSRSMAvg Rank
Iowa
36​
15​
32​
17​
33​
32​
26​
27.3​
Nebraska
31​
32​
33​
37​
29​
33​
36​
33.0​

Team Rankings Key:
Your last 3 posts of these 'expert systems' all showed Iowa winning.
Maybe you're the hex that's holding us back! ;)
 
Your last 3 posts of these 'expert systems' all showed Iowa winning.
Maybe you're the hex that's holding us back! ;)
Time to find some new models........ :)

Btw, if you've been paying attention to the betting sites, they show the same insanity as well for all these games.



Iowa vs Indiana (-6.5; some were -7.5 a few mins before game time):
 
Btw, if you've been paying attention to the betting sites, they show the same insanity as well for all these games.



Iowa vs Indiana (-6.5; some were -7.5 a few mins before game time):
I should lay a bet against the Hawks...they'd win for sure then!
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT