2022 is history. While Hawkeye athletics weren't quite as successful as they were in 2021, they finished a respectable 55th in the overall Director's Cup standings (9th in the Big 10). The Iowa teams that scored the most points, nationally, were gymnastics, wrestling, field hockey and track, and both basketball teams.
So as we turn the page to 2023, Iowa's most objective sports prognosticator, IowaLaw, will once again make some predictions for the year ahead. Will he have a 100% accuracy rate like last year? Time will tell:
NFL Success Ahead for This Year's Seniors? Much of the praise and NFL hype this year went to Iowa's 2022 MVP, Sam LaPorta. IowaLaw never saw it, and was outspoken that LaPorta's stats were misleading. While there's no denying LaPorta had a ton of catches (he led Big 10 tight ends with 58), his productivity was clearly a product of the system and not of being a star. LaPorta had the benefit of playing along side ZERO Big 10 caliber wide receivers. He caught passes from the most paranoid, conservative, happy footed QB in football. Despite being Iowa's primary target, LaPorta had just 1 touchdown catch (incredibly low for a TE), led the team in drops, and was a below average blocker. LaPorta may indeed end up getting drafted ahead of all-Americans like Moss and Campbell, but LaPorta won't have more than 5 receptions in the NFL next year. Moss & Campbell, on the other hand, are going to end up NFL starters in their rookie years, despite not being highly drafted. Assuming he avoids injuries, I could see Campbell landing on the all-pro team in the not so distant future, and Moss will surprise quite a few sticking in the league for years and years.
Hawkeye Basketball Takes Step Back. The Hawkeyes are an incredibly fun team to watch under Fran McCaffery (when they're making 3s). They are everything the football team isn't...high scoring, run and gun, creative, and awful on defense. Fran has created a perennial Top 25 team and he's been great for the program. The down side is, the Hawks have been fortunate enough to have numerous low recruited gems who turned into all-time greats over the past 5 years (i.e. Wieskamp, Murray, Garza, Murray, Bohannan), yet they have yet to make it out of the first week of the NCAA tournament. Plenty of far less talented teams have done far better in March. Next year, Fran's run of 1st team all-Big 10 super stars carrying the team runs out. Gone will be the only guy who can create his own shot (Murray), the team's only post player (Filip), and the 6th year "glue" player (Connor). This year's freshmen and sophomores are nowhere near the talent level of most Big 10 underclassmen. Since Fran struggles in the portal, landing ZERO this past year, look for several up and coming Big 10 teams to surpass Iowa in the pecking order next year. It will be the first year in ages that the Hawks failed to make the NCAA tournament. Enjoy this year's team, sporting an NBA 1st rounder, while you can. They are few and far between in Iowa history.
Hawkeye Baseball Takes Step Forward. Although the Hawks had the top pitcher in the Big 10 last year in Adam Mazur (he was drafted 53rd overall, the highest at Iowa in 35 years), they haven't made the NCAA tournament since 2017. Look for this year's squad to finally break through the ceiling this spring and receive an NCAA bid. The Hawks have a stud OF named Keaton Anthony who could have made millions last year going pro, but chose to return (pre-season all American). They also have some interesting pitching prospects, including a super star in Ty Langenberg, and a couple of very athletic but raw football player types (Brecht & Morgan). This could be the best Hawkeye baseball team in 20 years.
Brian Ferentz Still Unfireable. Many laughed last January when IowaLaw predicted Brian keep his job despite underperforming, receive a promotion, and receive a raise. Sure enough, when the experienced QBs coach stepped down, Kirk interviewed 0 candidates to replace him, and simply handed the job of QB whisperer to his low IQ, offensive linemen son...and bumped his pay to ensure Brian will never have to work again when he's done at Iowa. The results were...atrocious. Iowa's offense was a national punch line. Going into 2023, there has been zero shifting on the coaching staff (Iowa is the only team in the conference that kept its entire coaching staff in tact). Once again, Brian will be calling plays (i.e. lots of runs up the middle into loaded blocks with no chance of success) and guiding QBs on their technique ("take no risks, but if you make one mistake after another, you'll never be benched.") Despite bringing in a star QB from the portal, the Hawks will once again struggle on offense. This time, the defense will not be as stout, and will be unable to carry the entire load all season long. As a result, games will inevitably higher scoring (both on offense and defense). The new and improved offense, the weak schedule, the star QB, and the new points based incentives in Brian's contract will only increase Iowa's 130th ranked total offense up to 79th. That'll be plenty for him to keep his job and land yet another raise.
Caitlin Clark Will Continue Racking Up More Stats Than Wins. I get it, Clark is a feel good story. Home grown Dowling girl leads the nation in scoring (well, she's 3rd in scoring). She has averaged 27 points per game in each of her 3 years at Iowa, which is a once and a lifetime talent, and will undoubtedly break a lot of records next year in her senior year. Whether she wins the National Player of the Year is not for me to say. But from what I've watched of her, she's just not a good enough shooter to lead the Hawks to something magical like a Final 4. While some in the local media have referred to Clark as the "greatest shooter I've ever seen" on the basis that she often shoots from the logo, her stats tell a different story (and you don't get bonus points for shooting 10 feet beyond the 3 point line). Last year, she was a 33% 3 point shooter (that would be 7th on last year's men's team). This year, she's upped it to 37%, which is solid, but not exactly equal to the hype. Her coach loves the hype, it's good for her contract, and plays Clark 36 minutes per game...even when the Hawks are leading by 40 points. Getting triple doubles are fun and make Sports Center, but doesn't it lose meaning when you're beating a dead horse up 35 points with 1 min to go and still nailing one last 3 pointer or grabbing one last rebound to get your 10th of the game? Look for the Hawks to cruise to a Sweet 16 on the back of their super star, which is an incredible feat, but unless the team brings in some actual athletes to surround Clark, the team can't go much further than that.
Despite Adding 2 Grad Transfers, the OLine and Running Game Will Continue To Struggle. Two years ago, Iowa hired a new OL coach and gifted him the privilege of coaching the nation's top linemen/center in Tyler Linderbaum right off the bat. Somehow, Barnett still managed to produce one of the worst offensive lines in the Big 10. Star RB Goodson had his worst of 3 seasons at Iowa and routinely got crushed 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage. Kirk doubled down in 2022. Iowa returned 4 OL starters, several of whom were 4 star recruits, yet the OL regressed. They quickly became a meme mocked far and wide. ESPN and FOX commentators stated the line was poorly coached, as guys didn't seem to know their assignments and showed zero improvement through the 5 month season. Iowa's OL was soft. So rather than admit the mistake in hiring, Kirk went all in on the transfer portal (which he said he doesn't like to do), bringing in not one but two future starters to replace some weak links (something IowaLaw was demanding 18 months ago but never happened). Will last year's starters improve? Probably a little, they eat and lift weights. Will the new additions help? Definitely. One was all-conference. But when an OLine (or QB) gets no coaching, the unit is not going to make the huge strides Hawk fans have come to expect. It's a shame, too, because Iowa has an extremely talented back who never seems to have any lanes to run in. He will struggle again next year, watching lesser backs get all the hype. Aside from the cream of the crop, Allen from Wis & Corum from Mich, but Singleton is back for Penn State, and Purdue, Nebraska, Maryland, and Northwestern all have studs returning next year. Without a decent OL, Kaleb Johnson will be relegated to mediocrity in the Big 10, with a few really big games thrown in.
