ADVERTISEMENT

Iowa's NCAA tourney seed speculation - I say 3-6 possible

Pepperman

Pepperman

HB Legend
Nov 4, 2002
27,846
14,337
113
I am curious if others see it this way as well? I think if we lose right away, we still hold on to a 6 seed. I also think beating the winner of Illinois/Minnesota does nothing to improve our seed, so that's still a 6 seed.

Now, beat Purdue and I think we can be a 5 seed.
Beat Indiana (if they get there, and they should) on Saturday and that could get us to a 4 seed.
Win the tournament (likely over MSU or Maryland) and I think we can get a 3 seed.

Maybe that's too obvious and doesn't even need to be said, but I hadn't seen discussion on this topic yet.
 
I think that's a pretty fair prediction. Not sure if we can climb as high as a 3 seed, but that would be pretty cool if we did.
 
I think a 2 is in play if we regain our January from and go 4-0 over Ill, Purdue, Ind, MSU. That would add 3 top 50 (possibly 25) wins to our resume and make committee members forget about February.
 
  • Like
Reactions: johnnashhawk
2 is probably out of play. We would have to hope teams like Oregon, Xavier, North Carolina lose to awful teams. A loss to another top 50 team won't do much. I'd say we're a 6 if we lose to Ill, but won't get to a 4 unless we beat IU (and it has to be IU) and then a 3 if we beat MSU and only MSU.
 
Nice to be having this conversation based on where many thought we would be before the season began AND then again before the conference started.
 
hexumhawk said:
Win out = 2/3
BTT Champ Game = 3/4
BTT QF = 4/5
Lose First round = 6
Click to expand...

This! Iowa can use this tournament as a way to "improve" their seeding. Also if we bow out in the 4/5 game, no harm done really. I think if its competitive it will help them.

I just wonder who is going to be the cinderella in this years conference tourneys. There always seems to be 1 team who gets it rolling.
 
markfromj said:
The Sunday game had no bearing on seeding. It's too late.
Click to expand...

Basically what they do is have 2 brackets switching teams around.

For example if Iowa is a 4 seed and they win and they want to bump them up, they will move a 3 seed down to their spot and switch them. I remember a few years back when Iowa played OSU in BTC, they said they have brackets ready go for all scenarios that play out on Sunday.

If Iowa is in the Big Ten Final, they will have a bracket for each scenario, but I agree their seed will pretty much be set by then, it might just move them up a notch. They wouldn't jump from a 4 to a 2 seed. They might move a seed, but highly doubt it.
 
hexumhawk said:
Win out = 2/3
BTT Champ Game = 3/4
BTT QF = 4/5
Lose First round = 6
Click to expand...
This is pretty much the scenario I posted in a different thread. I think I 2 is very much in play if Iowa beats MSU for a 3rd time this season. Everyone loves MSU and if Iowa sweeps 3 games from them it would speak volumes.
 
whatsup13579er said:
This is pretty much the scenario I posted in a different thread. I think I 2 is very much in play if Iowa beats MSU for a 3rd time this season. Everyone loves MSU and if Iowa sweeps 3 games from them it would speak volumes.
Click to expand...

If UI beats IU, we're back in Des Moines. Beat MSU, committe couldn't explain 1 seed above us. If that happens, They just change places.... IA1, MSU 2
 
No way a 10-loss team is gonna be the 1 seed. Even as a 2-seed that's pushing it. MSU could still be ahead of us, but if in the unlikely event that we meet and beat them in the BTCG, that would just cost them a potential #1 seed.

I think the 5-seed is the most likely, but it all depends on if we can not sleepwalk through our 1st round game, beat Purdue for a 3rd time this season, and "Crean" the Hoosiers from the Big Ten tournament......
 
GoHawks2009 said:
No way a 10-loss team is gonna be the 1 seed. Even as a 2-seed that's pushing it. MSU could still be ahead of us, but if in the unlikely event that we meet and beat them in the BTCG, that would just cost them a potential #1 seed.

I think the 5-seed is the most likely, but it all depends on if we can not sleepwalk through our 1st round game, beat Purdue for a 3rd time this season, and "Crean" the Hoosiers from the Big Ten tournament......
Click to expand...

You could be right. However, not splitting hairs, but we have 9 losses. AP has MSU ranked 2, Ind 10, Pur 13. Not that I think it will happen, but that would be a helluva statement. That's not even considering the fact that IU and MSU are arguably 2 of the hottest teams in the country.....not sure PU doesn't fall into that category too. What's the cliche this year....the eyeball test
 
johnnashhawk said:
You could be right. However, not splitting hairs, but we have 9 losses. AP has MSU ranked 2, Ind 10, Pur 13. Not that I think it will happen, but that would be a helluva statement. That's not even considering the fact that IU and MSU are arguably 2 of the hottest teams in the country.....not sure PU doesn't fall into that category too. What's the cliche this year....the eyeball test
Click to expand...
Ah, so we do. It was probably because I was thinking about different tournament games down the road for us, and where our record could end up.
 
johnnashhawk said:
If UI beats IU, we're back in Des Moines. Beat MSU, committe couldn't explain 1 seed above us. If that happens, They just change places.... IA1, MSU 2
Click to expand...
I don't think Iowa can get back up to the 1 line. That's a bit of a stretch. I think if Iowa beats MSU in the BTT, I think they are both 2 seeds, Ind gets a 3 and Purdue gets a 4.
 
  • Like
Reactions: johnnashhawk
If I remember correctly, the tournament committee said last year that the conference tournaments don't have a huge effect on seeding. They might move you up or down a line but to go all the way to a 3 seed won't happen.
 
David1979 said:
If I remember correctly, the tournament committee said last year that the conference tournaments don't have a huge effect on seeding. They might move you up or down a line but to go all the way to a 3 seed won't happen.
Click to expand...
If Iowa beats #13/4 seed Purdue, #10/3 seed Indiana and #2/2 seed MSU in 3 days, the committee could not ignore that and Iowa would be a minimum of a 3 seed.

If a team gets one good win or has a bad loss it probably doesn't move them much seeding wise but 3 top 15 wins in 3 days would be too good to ignore.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoHawks2009 and hexumhawk
David1979 said:
If I remember correctly, the tournament committee said last year that the conference tournaments don't have a huge effect on seeding. They might move you up or down a line but to go all the way to a 3 seed won't happen.
Click to expand...

I personally think conference tournament games shouldnt be a factor at all. I realize it has helped Iowa a few times by winning some games in the BTT, but your postseason resume should be complete after the regular season. If you're a bubble team going into the conference tournament and want to be assured of an NCAA tournament appearance, win the tournament and get the automatic bid. Your resume is written after the last regular season game in my opinion.
 
whatsup13579er said:
I don't think Iowa can get back up to the 1 line. That's a bit of a stretch. I think if Iowa beats MSU in the BTT, I think they are both 2 seeds, Ind gets a 3 and Purdue gets a 4.
Click to expand...

If MSU makes it to the Big 10 Championship game, they will be a #1 seed. If Iowa wins, they could be a #2, but I still think #3 would be more likely.

Hypothetically, if we beat Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State, those would all be quality wins against NCAA tournament teams (Michigan would be in by virtue of their hypothetical win over Indiana). If that scenario presents itself, it would be interesting to see if Iowa is criticized for most of its best wins coming against only three teams, as that would make us 9-0 against Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State.
 
EpenesaEpenesa said:
I personally think conference tournament games shouldnt be a factor at all. I realize it has helped Iowa a few times by winning some games in the BTT, but your postseason resume should be complete after the regular season. If you're a bubble team going into the conference tournament and want to be assured of an NCAA tournament appearance, win the tournament and get the automatic bid. Your resume is written after the last regular season game in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. I don't even thing they should do the automatic bids for conference tourney winners. It would help the put a lot better low and mid major teams in the tournament if the automatic bid was the regular season champ.
 
whatsup13579er said:
I don't think Iowa can get back up to the 1 line. That's a bit of a stretch. I think if Iowa beats MSU in the BTT, I think they are both 2 seeds, Ind gets a 3 and Purdue gets a 4.
Click to expand...

I agree. Too many teams to jump. I do think they can play their way back to Des Moines though.
 
I hate to bring this up in such a positive thread, but if Iowa were to lose the first game I don't think a 7 seed is out of the question. I think Iowa falls anywhere between a #7 to a #3. Just getting to Des Moines should be all we are rooting for. Winning two games gets them in the discussion with three wins pretty much a lock imo.
 
His Hawkness said:
I hate to bring this up in such a positive thread, but if Iowa were to lose the first game I don't think a 7 seed is out of the question. I think Iowa falls anywhere between a #7 to a #3. Just getting to Des Moines should be all we are rooting for. Winning two games gets them in the discussion with three wins pretty much a lock imo.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, Iowa has to win 4 games to get Des Moines.
Right now, Kansas has one of the two spots in Des Moines locked up.

The second spot is currently with Indiana as a #3 seed. Indiana prefers St. Louis but Xavier and Michigan State have that spot. That means Iowa has to get to even with Indiana seed wise to take Des Moines. Indiana is probably not going to drop seeds even with a loss which means Iowa has to get back to #3 seed. Normally this would be tough, but with Iowa's strong resume already, I think the selection committee will be more forgiving of the slump if Iowa comes in winning 5 straight with 3 ranked teams in there.
 
hoffmkr said:
Unfortunately, Iowa has to win 4 games to get Des Moines.
Right now, Kansas has one of the two spots in Des Moines locked up.

The second spot is currently with Indiana as a #3 seed. Indiana prefers St. Louis but Xavier and Michigan State have that spot. That means Iowa has to get to even with Indiana seed wise to take Des Moines. Indiana is probably not going to drop seeds even with a loss which means Iowa has to get back to #3 seed. Normally this would be tough, but with Iowa's strong resume already, I think the selection committee will be more forgiving of the slump if Iowa comes in winning 5 straight with 3 ranked teams in there.
Click to expand...
In comparison to see if it looks like Iowa has any chance of making a 3 seed. Iowa State had a 3 seed the last two years with the records below..

2014 regular season 23-7, won three games over Kansas St, Kansas and Baylor to win the Big 12 tournament with a 26-7 record to get the #3 seed.
2015 regular season 22-8, won three games over Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas in Big 12 to enter the NCAA at 25-8 to get a 3 seed.

It might be a little easier to get a higher seed this year with Duke & Kentucky not as powerful and SMU and Louisville not participating. With 4 wins Iowa would be at 25-9 going into the NCAA so a three might be possible, depends on what other teams in the Top 25 do.
 
IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life said:
I think Iowa lands on the #5 seed line against the feared #12 seed who always pulls an upset or two.
Click to expand...
I also think Iowa ends up a 5 seed. So I looked up the records of the 5/12 games and was really surprised with what I found. I knew it seemed like a 12 seed was always pulling an upset here and there but I didn't expect this. A 12 seed has advanced to the round of 32 in 22 of the last 24 years. At least 2 has advanced in 11 of the last 12 years. Currently Lunardi has Iowa and Iowa State as 5 seeds and UNI a 12 seed. Could be scary for both Iowa and ISU if that's where they end up being seeded by the selection committee and I can easily see UNI knocking off a 5 seed.
 
Razorhawk2 said:
I also think Iowa ends up a 5 seed. So I looked up the records of the 5/12 games and was really surprised with what I found. I knew it seemed like a 12 seed was always pulling an upset here and there but I didn't expect this. A 12 seed has advanced to the round of 32 in 22 of the last 24 years. At least 2 has advanced in 11 of the last 12 years. Currently Lunardi has Iowa and Iowa State as 5 seeds and UNI a 12 seed. Could be scary for both Iowa and ISU if that's where they end up being seeded by the selection committee and I can easily see UNI knocking off a 5 seed.
Click to expand...
I know this sounds strange but looking at Lunardi's bracket if Iowa can't get a 3 seed I think a 6 seed gives them the best chance to get to the elite 8. Though a 6 seed needs to beat a 3 seed then a 2 seed the teams seeded 3 and 4 are almost interchangeable and being seeded 4 or 5 you have to play the 1 seed in the sweet 16. Looking at the possible 2 seeds I think Iowa if they can put it back together can beat any of them. Do we really care if they get a 6 seed if it gives them a chance to face the 1 seed to play in the Final Four?
 
I think it's pretty simple as laid out above.
We are currently a 5 seed.
Lose our first round game, we probably drop to 6 seed and would need other 6 seeds to lose first round to go back to a 5 seed.
Win our first round game, we stay a 5 seed.
Beat Purdue, we steal their 4 seed.
Beat Indiana, we stay a 4 seed, and need help to get to a 3 seed.
Win the whole tourney, 3 seed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoHawks2009
relishingwinning18 said:
I think it's pretty simple as laid out above.
We are currently a 5 seed.
Lose our first round game, we probably drop to 6 seed and would need other 6 seeds to lose first round to go back to a 5 seed.
Win our first round game, we stay a 5 seed.
Beat Purdue, we steal their 4 seed.
Beat Indiana, we stay a 4 seed, and need help to get to a 3 seed.
Win the whole tourney, 3 seed.
Click to expand...
The end.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

RossWB

Iowa soccer earns 3-seed in NCAA Tournament, will host games

Replies
13
Views
1K
The Press Box
RossWB
RossWB
Franisdaman

Vikings bought 1,900 tickets on the Secondary Market near the Visitors' bench for $2M & then offered them to stakeholders for $200-$300 each

Replies
7
Views
558
Off Topic
sober_teacher
S
Franisdaman

Neither #12 ranked Arizona St nor #9 ranked Boise St should have received a 1st Round CFP Bye. Should 3 Loss, #11 ranked Alabama have gotten in?

Replies
397
Views
19K
Iowa Football
Franisdaman
Franisdaman
E

Olympic Spotlight: Hawkeye Soccer Earns 3-Seed

Replies
3
Views
668
Hawkeye Sports Catch All
Menace Sockeyes
Menace Sockeyes
E

Olympic Spotlight: Hawkeye Soccer Earns 3-Seed

Replies
1
Views
162
The Press Box
WaterlooChazz
W
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back