Is ISU ever really a spoiler to Iowa?

[CFNiteHawk85]

Around this time every year it seems like this forum in inundated with posts about how crazy this series is, how we are ISU's super bowl advancing an ongoing narrative of how inferior ISU teams regularly step up and beat Iowa. Besides 02 has ISU ever derailed an otherwise good season? Usually, when Iowa has a solid team, they take ISU out soundly. Looking back at ISU wins:

98,99,00: Horrible Iowa teams. ISU was clearly better.
01: Two average teams. Not an upset. Coin flip.
02: Upset. Iowa had a much stronger team, although ISU was dangerous. Didn't seem like an upset when it happened. It would have been a completely different game if it was played later in the year.
05: Two average teams. Iowa was hugely disappointing that year. It seemed like an upset at the time but it did not turn out to be in hindsight.
07: Minor upset. ISU was lousy and Iowa was below average. Who really cares about this one?
11: Both teams were below average. Not really an upset in my opinion.
12: Iowa was horrible and ISU was average.
14: Upset. ISU was horrible and Iowa was average.

Except for 02, I would not say ISU has beaten a good Iowa team in the past 30 years.

 

[Rustys Dad]

I think this game hurts fans more than it does the players, coaches, or programs. When you peel back the layers, this game really hasn't factored into much of anything for either school ... other than a W or a L on the schedule. For the winning fan base, it's a week/weeks of talking smack.

 

[millah_22]

I think this game hurts fans more than it does the players, coaches, or programs. When you peel back the layers, this game really hasn't factored into much of anything for either school ... other than a W or a L on the schedule. For the winning fan base, it's a week/weeks of talking smack.

Really? Because along with myself, I know a lot of people who get really excited for this game.

 

[hawkifann]

Around this time every year it seems like this forum in inundated with posts about how crazy this series is, how we are ISU's super bowl advancing an ongoing narrative of how inferior ISU teams regularly step up and beat Iowa. Besides 02 has ISU ever derailed an otherwise good season? Usually, when Iowa has a solid team, they take ISU out soundly. Looking back at ISU wins:

98,99,00: Horrible Iowa teams. ISU was clearly better.
01: Two average teams. Not an upset. Coin flip.
02: Upset. Iowa had a much stronger team, although ISU was dangerous. Didn't seem like an upset when it happened. It would have been a completely different game if it was played later in the year.
05: Two average teams. Iowa was hugely disappointing that year. It seemed like an upset at the time but it did not turn out to be in hindsight.
07: Minor upset. ISU was lousy and Iowa was below average. Who really cares about this one?
11: Both teams were below average. Not really an upset in my opinion.
12: Iowa was horrible and ISU was average.
14: Upset. ISU was horrible and Iowa was average.

Except for 02, I would not say ISU has beaten a good Iowa team in the past 30 years.

I would agree...and even 2002 was weird because ISU was off to a great start with a Heisman contender that season in Seneca Wallace. The wheels fell off for them later, as Iowa grew and got better and better throughout that season.

For me, I think the fact that I grew up knowing nothing but Hayden dropping the hammer on them every year makes every loss feel like an upset....but you're right, few of these have been upsets. If Iowa loses this year, it would be a major upset and probably the biggest in the history of the rivalry.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Around this time every year it seems like this forum in inundated with posts about how crazy this series is, how we are ISU's super bowl advancing an ongoing narrative of how inferior ISU teams regularly step up and beat Iowa. Besides 02 has ISU ever derailed an otherwise good season? Usually, when Iowa has a solid team, they take ISU out soundly. Looking back at ISU wins:

98,99,00: Horrible Iowa teams. ISU was clearly better.
01: Two average teams. Not an upset. Coin flip.
02: Upset. Iowa had a much stronger team, although ISU was dangerous. Didn't seem like an upset when it happened. It would have been a completely different game if it was played later in the year.
05: Two average teams. Iowa was hugely disappointing that year. It seemed like an upset at the time but it did not turn out to be in hindsight.
07: Minor upset. ISU was lousy and Iowa was below average. Who really cares about this one?
11: Both teams were below average. Not really an upset in my opinion.
12: Iowa was horrible and ISU was average.
14: Upset. ISU was horrible and Iowa was average.

Except for 02, I would not say ISU has beaten a good Iowa team in the past 30 years.

It's only the difference between winning 8 games or more in a season......and winning 7 or fewer. That's all.
(with the exception of 2002...and '06 being the only year we beat them and finished with fewer than 8 wins)

 

[Rustys Dad]

Really? Because along with myself, I know a lot of people who get really excited for this game.

My point had nothing to do with if fans get excited or not. I, too, enjoy the week leading up to the game ... My post was referring to overall, I don't think the game does much for either program ...

 

[Ronman]

02: Upset. Iowa had a much stronger team, although ISU was dangerous. Didn't seem like an upset when it happened. It would have been a completely different game if it was played later in the year.

I thought it was a tremendous upset. Weren't we ahead by 17 at halftime. Didn't Banks fumble twice fairly deep in our territory and at least of them was totally unforced. We handed that game to them, just as we have handed them other games in the series.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

I would agree...and even 2002 was weird because ISU was off to a great start with a Heisman contender that season in Seneca Wallace. The wheels fell off for them later, as Iowa grew and got better and better throughout that season.

For me, I think the fact that I grew up knowing nothing but Hayden dropping the hammer on them every year makes every loss feel like an upset....but you're right, few of these have been upsets. If Iowa loses this year, it would be a major upset and probably the biggest in the history of the rivalry.

Yep, I understand what you mean. I grew up in the 80s and 90s as well and was conditioned to believe an Iowa victory over Iowa State was a foregone conclusion like death and taxes. In short, we were spoiled.

I agree with the OP. The years Iowa State has beaten Iowa since 2002 were years the two teams were competing for tallest midget.

 

[CFNiteHawk85]

I thought it was a tremendous upset. Weren't we ahead by 17 at halftime. Didn't Banks fumble twice fairly deep in our territory and at least of them was totally unforced. We handed that game to them, just as we have handed them other games in the series.

I think we were 2 point favorites @ Kinnick. But I see your point. The way they lost was devastating.

 

[AuroraHawk]

The loss in 2002 may have spoiled Iowa's chances of playing in the National Championship Game. It would have been tough to get past either Miami or OSU but it would have been awfully close.

 

[7thsummitcoach]

The loss in 2002 may have spoiled Iowa's chances of playing in the National Championship Game. It would have been tough to get past either Miami or OSU but it would have been awfully close.

I'm not convinced without that loss to ISU that Iowa would have had the moxie to come back and beat Purdue.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Yep, I understand what you mean. I grew up in the 80s and 90s as well and was conditioned to believe an Iowa victory over Iowa State was a foregone conclusion like death and taxes. In short, we were spoiled.

I agree with the OP. The years Iowa State has beaten Iowa since 2002 were years the two teams were competing for tallest midget.

I'm like this too. Knew nothing but Hayden laying the hammer on ISU every year. I actually thought it was common practice for the big teams to schedule tune-up pre-season games at the start of the season with the weak sister teams, Nebraska would schedule teams like Pacific to hang 100 points on, Iowa would schedule ISU.

Agree that other than a couple of rare occasions, ISU only beats mediocre Iowa teams. It could also be that an early season loss to ISU is so demoralizing to an Iowa team that it derails the entire season for the Hawks.

 

[Dauminator]

I'm not convinced without that loss to ISU that Iowa would have had the moxie to come back and beat Purdue.

Or hold on in a similar situation against PSU. Big lead lost in that one, too. This game is what makes 24-7 halftime leads so scary (and NU in 2005).

I think overall, if you ask about spoilers or upsets, it really depends on how you're looking at it. If you go by Vegas spreads, the numbers back up ISU playing better than expected. But . . . this game comes so early in the season. Most of the time, people base the "upset" idea on preseason expectations. We don't really know what either team is made of. It's part of what makes the series so unique compared to other rivalries.

As such, it's kind of inverted. The quality of Iowa's team doesn't tell us what to expect in this game (weird things happen, "good" Iowa teams get beat, etc . . .). Rather, the game's result tells us what to expect from Iowa coming out (if we lost, expect mediocrity at best, if we win, we're probably solid).

The reason? I would venture it lies in the mental side of the game. ISU has had the mental edge in this series since they broke the streak. That can change, but so far it holds true. Good Iowa teams (and remember, I'm talking soft skills like leadership, good attitude, and comeraderie) neutralize this and prevail, often comfortably. Weak or fractured Iowa teams can't overcome it, lose, and struggle throughout the year.

 

[ichawk24]

05: Two average teams. Iowa was hugely disappointing that year. It seemed like an upset at the time but it did not turn out to be in hindsight.

I may disagree here. If Iowa goes into Ames, takes care of business, and doesn't get Tate somewhat concussed, the entire season may take a much brighter path.

 

[KujawaFan]

I think people keep missing the point on this game. I don't care whether it ruins the season if we lose we know for a fact a victory will never ever help our season. And why not play another Power 5 team for recruiting and presence purposes? That is my point. We give ISU their only sellout every other year and we gain zero from the game outcome.

 

[Lone Clone]

I think a good case could be made that thae biggedt upset in the modern era was the first game in '77. ISU went 8-2 in other games, including a win at a top ten Nebraska. Iowa had a losing season.

 

[gojojo]

The ISU game tells us what is to come. If we beat ISU we usually win 8 or more games, if we lose we rarely, if ever do.

 

[BioHawk]

The loss in 2002 may have spoiled Iowa's chances of playing in the National Championship Game. It would have been tough to get past either Miami or OSU but it would have been awfully close.

I honestly think that USC was better than either of those teams that year, well, at the end of the season anyway. Carson Palmer was a superior quarterback to either of the guys on Miami or OSU.

 

[Dauminator]

I honestly think that USC was better than either of those teams that year, well, at the end of the season anyway. Carson Palmer was a superior quarterback to either of the guys on Miami or OSU.

I think most who say this are revising history to make the OB sting less. Did you forget how scary/dominant Miami was in that stretch? And Ohio State, well, people doubted them all year (myself included). All they did was win. Including over that same scary Miami team.

I think Iowa was on par with those teams. But we were kind of a momentum team and lost it all during the long break. Then we overcelebrated like the job was done just getting to Miami.

More on topic, I don't think an undefeated Iowa gets voted in the BCS over Miami or Ohio State. Same problem in 2009. No injury, we beat NU and OSU in my opinion. But finish #3 behind Alabama and Texas.

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

I think a good case could be made that thae biggedt upset in the modern era was the first game in '77. ISU went 8-2 in other games, including a win at a top ten Nebraska. Iowa had a losing season.

No.

 

[His Hawkness]

For some reason ISU wins all the close 50/50 games. If Iowa just wins 2 of the 5 50/50 games that occurred in 2001, 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2014, then KF's record would be 10-7. The cumulative score since KF took over is Iowa - 378 to ISU - 298 even though he is 8-9 in those games. Hats off to ISU for winning the close games, bu they have been extremely fortunate to do so as well.

 

[Kinnick4Ever]

Lone Clone makes a good point, from an ISU perspective, at least. However, I gotta hand it to the late, great Bob Commings (terrific player on Iowa's Rose Bowl team and a very passionate coach). Tremendous coaching effort to pull out that '77 game.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Does a loss to isu spoil Iowa's season? Don't see a great case for that.

Does a win help Iowa to a great season, or even a good one? Nope.

 

[Lone Clone]

Does a loss to isu spoil Iowa's season? Don't see a great case for that.

Does a win help Iowa to a great season, or even a good one? Nope.

There have been several years when the ISU win got Iowa to .500 and/or to a bowl game.

 

[BioHawk]

I think most who say this are revising history to make the OB sting less. Did you forget how scary/dominant Miami was in that stretch? And Ohio State, well, people doubted them all year (myself included). All they did was win. Including over that same scary Miami team.

I think Iowa was on par with those teams. But we were kind of a momentum team and lost it all during the long break. Then we overcelebrated like the job was done just getting to Miami.

More on topic, I don't think an undefeated Iowa gets voted in the BCS over Miami or Ohio State. Same problem in 2009. No injury, we beat NU and OSU in my opinion. But finish #3 behind Alabama and Texas.

I disagree. I think an undefeated Iowa gets in that year, particularly because they would have looked far more dominating during the season than Ohio State and the complete dismantling of Michigan that year is the quality win that would have given them cred. The only wild card is the fact that Ohio State is called "Ohio State" and gets bumped ahead just because. I will always believe that had Iowa played Ohio State that year during the regular season Iowa wins that game. I think they were better. Obviously, they were not better in January though.

 

[Lone Clone]

For some reason ISU wins all the close 50/50 games. If Iowa just wins 2 of the 5 50/50 games that occurred in 2001, 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2014, then KF's record would be 10-7. The cumulative score since KF took over is Iowa - 378 to ISU - 298 even though he is 8-9 in those games. Hats off to ISU for winning the close games, bu they have been extremely fortunate to do so as well.

But prior to KF's arrival, Iowa was 5-1 in games decided by 10 or fewer points (3-1 in games decided by a TD or less), so it evens out a bit. The only close game between the schools that Iowa State won between 1977 and 2001 was 10-7 in '80.

 

[Lone Clone]

No.

Well, then, you appear to have changed the criteria used by other Hawkeye posters on this point. They always insist on using the final records of the teams to determine which should have won the early-season game. You seem to be basing your evaluation on the fact ISU was only a slight favorite in '77.

FWIW, that's the criterion I think is the best. That's why I have pointed out on numerous occasions that the '02 game was not much of an upset -- ISU was favored by one betting line, and was only a point or two 'dog in others.

But I think we need some consistency.

 

[His Hawkness]

But prior to KF's arrival, Iowa was 5-1 in games decided by 10 or fewer points (3-1 in games decided by a TD or less), so it evens out a bit. The only close game between the schools that Iowa State won between 1977 and 2001 was 10-7 in '80.

I'm not talking about games decided by 10 or fewer points. I'm talking about OT games, games won on last second field goals and games decided by less than three points. Those are 50/50 games for the most part and ISU was won all of them since KF took over. A lot of the games between 1977 and 2001 were blowouts by Iowa as they were vastly superior to ISU then.

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

Well, then, you appear to have changed the criteria used by other Hawkeye posters on this point. They always insist on using the final records of the teams to determine which should have won the early-season game. You seem to be basing your evaluation on the fact ISU was only a slight favorite in '77.

FWIW, that's the criterion I think is the best. That's why I have pointed out on numerous occasions that the '02 game was not much of an upset -- ISU was favored by one betting line, and was only a point or two 'dog in others.

But I think we need some consistency.

You gleam all that from a one word answer? Are you a wizard? It seems silly debating about Iowa/Iowa State especially going in depth. Where the two programs are and have been when Iowa loses, from a national perspective its an upset and an embarrassing loss, Iowa State wins and its viewed as a huge upset and gives Iowa State their fifteen minutes until their season plays out in typical fashion. To spin it otherwise is pointless.

 

[NashvilleHawk]

The years Iowa won at Ames were 2003, 2009, 2013 and 2015.
2003 and 2013 - Outback Bowl.
2009 - Orange Bowl
2015 - Rose Bowl.

The years Iowa won at Iowa City were 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010.
2004 - Capital One Bowl
2006 - Alamo Bowl
2008 - Outback Bowl
2010 - Insight Bowl

2002 and 2014 were BAD losses, as we went to the Orange and Taxslayer Bowl.
A loss to Iowa State hasn't hurt us in the bowl pecking order, but, like most posters have already said, it's a no-win situation, with this game.

 

[scotthawk1964]

The only way ISU would be a spoiler is if Iowa went undefeated in the BIG, won the Big championship game and did not make the playoff because of a loss to a bad Iowa State team. Which, since the Clones are not well respected in the country, would be a probably scenario.

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

05: Two average teams. Iowa was hugely disappointing that year. It seemed like an upset at the time but it did not turn out to be in hindsight.

I would contest this. 2005 was, statistically, Drew Tate's best year, Albert Young rushed for over 1,300 yards, and our defense was pretty good, led by Greenway and Hodge. In fact, we were still ranked going into our bowl game against Florida, where we got absolutely jobbed by the refs. The horrendous officiating in the Outback Bowl also makes people forget about the terrible officiating in our 23-20 overtime loss to Michigan. That Michigan game and the Northwestern game the following week were games Iowa absolutely should have won, but the bounces just didn't go our way.

The 2005 team was disappointing, because many had us in the top 10 to start the season, but despite being disappointing, it was still a good team that would have finished in the top 25 with one more win.

 

[Lone Clone]

You gleam all that from a one word answer? Are you a wizard? It seems silly debating about Iowa/Iowa State especially going in depth. Where the two programs are and have been when Iowa loses, from a national perspective its an upset and an embarrassing loss, Iowa State wins and its viewed as a huge upset and gives Iowa State their fifteen minutes until their season plays out in typical fashion. To spin it otherwise is pointless.

I am not a wizard. But I know that the word you wanted to use is "glean."

And it is viewed that way on Hawkeye message boards. In 2002 ISU was ranked ahead of Iowa until sometime in the second half of the season. Same in '81. I could be wrong, but I think ISU was favored in '01.

If you take the position that any win by ISU over Iowa is an upset, then I agree, every win by ISU over Iowa has been an upset.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

I honestly think that USC was better than either of those teams that year, well, at the end of the season anyway. Carson Palmer was a superior quarterback to either of the guys on Miami or OSU.

Yes, USC started the season 0-2 then went on a tear. I think they would have beaten Miami or OSU. And rather soundly.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Yes, USC started the season 0-2 then went on a tear. I think they would have beaten Miami or OSU. And rather soundly.

Remember that vividly. USC was the best team in the country by the end of the season and was an absolute buzz saw. Iowa came out with the toughest bowl matchup. I would have much preferred to play either OSU or Miami. USC then went on to assert its dominance for a few years after that.

 

[Suterman]

We also had a 24-7 lead against Nebraska in 2014 and lost. That halftime score has been rough on the Hawkeyes for some reason.

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

Yes, USC started the season 0-2 then went on a tear. I think they would have beaten Miami or OSU. And rather soundly.

I agree that USC was the best team in the country at the end of the season, but those Ohio State and Miami teams had a lot of talent. I would favor USC in that matchup, but it's by a slim margin.

 

[BubsFinn]

The loss in 2002 may have spoiled Iowa's chances of playing in the National Championship Game. It would have been tough to get past either Miami or OSU but it would have been awfully close.

There is absolutely no chance we would have jumped Ohio State or Miami. The loss to Iowa State in 2002 meant nothing. Had we won, we still would have ended up in the Orange Bowl.
Doesn't make the loss any less painful, though.

 

[SoMplsHawkI]

Does a loss to isu spoil Iowa's season? Don't see a great case for that.

Does a win help Iowa to a great season, or even a good one? Nope.

There have been several years when the ISU win got Iowa to .500 and/or to a bowl game.

Since 1977 of the 14 losses Iowa has been to a bowl game 7 times. And of the other 7 years the win loss record is 23 - 57, in other words we were so bad it didn't matter who we lost to the season was spoiled.

Also since 1977 only 3 of the 25 wins ('93, '94 and '06) helped Iowa get to .500 or a bowl game. And two of those years we also beat Minnesota and Northwestern. Not much of a case that a win helps here either.

SDHawkDoc FTW.

 

[latenighter84]

From many fans perspective they are most certainly a spoiler to Iowa. There are plenty fans on both sides that view this as the most important game of the season every year.
Personally they are a spoiler because they have been so bad for so long not because it's ISU.