To break down the Badgers, you really have to be more detail oriented. On my first pass, I jumped to the same conclusion as the OP ... however, I quickly realized that was because I was viewing things through Black-and-Gold polarized glasses. When you try to break down Wisconsin more objectively, you arrive at the following conclusions:
- Their defense is better - not just a little better, they are better across the board. This D battled injuries at the beginning of last year and, itself was transitioning after the graduation of a good number of talented players. This years D returns most guys from the secondary ... and a front 7 that is a legit upgrade from last year. Unless I'm mistaken, the D is also pretty healthy coming into the game against Iowa too.
- The Badger passing O is improved from last year. Last year the Badger passing game was occasionally near non-existent. Even though I agree with the assertion that Stave is no superstar - he's also back in an offensive scheme that better suits his skill-set. Anderson's offense wasn't a great fit for Stave because Stave just isn't mobile enough. Chryst's O fits Stave like a glove.
- The Badger receivers aren't fear-inducing ... however, they still get the job done. They've allowed for Stave to be a more efficient passer. Their TE, Traylor, is a reliable target that our LBs and safeties will need to keep an eye on. I mention the TE because opposing Os have had success targeting their TEs against our D.
- The Badger running O definitely has "downshifted" from last year. Part of that is attributable to the fact that Melvin Gordon is an unbelievable talent and another part of that is due to the fact that the Badger OL was very good last year. Furthermore, Gordon was "backed up" by a very capable Clement. Don't get me wrong - without question both Deal and Ogunbowale are talents. However, they lack the combined experience and talent that Gordon and Clement had last year. Furthermore, their OL isn't quite what it was last year.
- Before we get too comfortable, it's worth recognizing that Wisconsin's OL-coach is one of the best in the business, Joe Rudolph. Thus, even though the group is "transitioning," we can expect the group to run block really well and be VERY well coached.
So while the Badger running game isn't "all world" like it was last year - the O still should be good. Furthermore, it's a group that is improving through each and every game.
Iowa most certainly IS improved in EVERY facet of the game - however, C.J. Beathard will have his toughest test to date against the Badger defense.
I do agree with the premise that the game will likely be a dogfight. I certainly hope that the Hawks come out on top ... but I wouldn't count on it.