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ISU -2

Purdy had the highest efficiency rating for a freshman in NCAA history. He was even higher than Trevor Lawrence. We will get to see how Iowa handles the kid.

We will see how Purdy handles AJ and Iowa’s D-line. With your offensive line, ouch. I hope they improved a lot during the off week.
 
He scored 3 points vs Texas until the last minute give me.

He was badly outplayed by a non scholarship player from Drake and benched.

He threw only 4 TDs to 5 Ints his last 5 games last year.

He looked mediocre vs UNI.

He didn't face one top 30 defense last year and missed the best two defenses on his schedule (Iowa and TCU).
One of the biggest considerations that nobody has spoken of yet is this .... Purdy has yet to have prepped for Iowa's D. In contrast, Stanley has prepped for AND faced ISU's D 2 times already ... each time ending in hard-fought Ws.

Campbell has not yet fielded the same QB 2-times in a row versus the Hawks. This is Purdy's first shot ... and likely his best chance too.
 
Hostile environment ... I think that the line is moving because of Stanley's history of soiling himself in big games.

Also, Iowa's roster has a bunch of guys banged up ... and we really have yet to face a good defense. Iowa State's D will make the running tough ... so the big question is whether we can exploit them through the air. Since we haven't faced terribly good D-lines up until this point ... there may also be the question of protecting Stanley too.

Anyhow, I can understand how and why the line was initially set at essentially a push. If the line gets pushed to ISU -5 ... then that's a margin that I don't think ISU can cover.
I thought Rutger's d-line and secondary both played quite physical...dumb, but physical.
 
ISU had no three-and-outs against UNI, punted three times, gained over 450 yards, and the running backs averaged 4.6 yards per carry. They moved the ball. They just kept shooting themselves in the foot.

I'm not suggesting that because they did these things against UNI, they will do them against Iowa. I'm just pointing out that they did not have an inability to move the ball.
And an average to decent team shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball vs UNI. Iowa had their way with UNI last year.
 
Stanley’s completion % last year was 58%. That is absolutely criminal with two 1st round TEs as primaries and check downs. It those two got their touches, it means Stanley was not good with his accuracy to the other targets. He doesn’t have those security blankets this year so he better be much more precise in his throws. He faces his first real defense of the year and I can assure you that he will not be allowed to just sit in the pocket and throw.
So Iowa has no tight ends this year? Interesting...tell me more.
 
Purdy had the highest efficiency rating for a freshman in NCAA history. He was even higher than Trevor Lawrence. We will get to see how Iowa handles the kid.
Probably as well as juggernaut UNI did.
 
Yet the statement stands
No, it doesn't...that poster just perfectly explained how Purdy's rating was inflated by playing weaker defenses and and was only mediocre vs average defenses.
 
Then unless our defense switches all our players with crap from Oklahoma State, Kansas or Baylor, I'm not really worried.
IIRC, didn’t the hawks lose the entire starting DL? Epenenza is pretty good but what about the others? I am not convinced.
 
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IIRC, didn’t the hawks lose the entire starting DL? Epenenza is pretty good but what about the others? I am not convinced.

Surprising that it’s working out like that, but
Epenesa >> Hesse
Reiff/Nixon > Brinks/Reiff
Lattimore > or = to M. Nelson
C. Golston = (possibly >) A Nelson.

More penetration in the backfield with LBs that are ready to clean up quicker.

If we press your WRs I don t think there’s much of a chance of ISU hitting consistently deep. I doubt there will be much of a run game.
 
Then unless our defense switches all our players with crap from Oklahoma State, Kansas or Baylor, I'm not really worried.
IIRC, didn’t the hawks lose the entire starting DL? Epenenza is pretty good but what about the others? I am not convinced.
It is mind boggling how A guy so obsessed with Iowa, knows so little about Iowa.
 
Scoresandodds.com said it opened at Iowa -1.5

Hey CyTwins, now known as Texan06, are you still going to run your mouth about Vegas thinks the clowns are going to win now that Iowa is favored? Somebody knows something to move a line from isu -4.5 to isu+1.5.

Yikes
 
70% of money going to Iowa at -1.5.

It'll be at least -2 by noon.
 
Iowa now -1.5

63% still betting Iowa so I think this line will end up somewhere in the -2.5 to -3 range.

How much of the money coming in is on Iowa? Thats a better sign than % of bettors, isnt it?

Edit---I should have read the whole thread before asking. Thanks for the info!
 
The vig has been increased on the Iowa line. That's a sign it'll move soon.

Bet Now has already increased to -2 Iowa.
 
The vig has been increased on the Iowa line. That's a sign it'll move soon.

Bet Now has already increased to -2 Iowa.

Funny how silent CyTwins aka Texan06 has become. He found a way to post in this threat at 3:47am but has now run off and hid.

Why is that?
 
IIRC, didn’t the hawks lose the entire starting DL? Epenenza is pretty good but what about the others? I am not convinced.

isu returns their entire OL and they still suck. Must be the poor coaching they are receiving. Count me as not being convinced.
 
Funny how silent CyTwins aka Texan06 has become. He found a way to post in this threat at 3:47am but has now run off and hid.

Why is that?

Meh, the same people who incessantly talked about the preseason Vegas line of +3.5 now just argue it doesn't matter.

The reality is this fast changing spread is an indication that Vegas saw an exposed team a week ago in Ames vs UNI.
 
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Keep going up! I am going to get rich on the money line! This game is the centerpiece of all parlays!

So why did the line go from isu -4.5 to now isu+2? I mean if everyone is so convinced the clowns are going to win wouldn’t the line go the other way?

Somebody knows something.
 
Meh, the same people who incessantly talked about the preseason Vegas line of +3.5 now just argue it doesn't matter.

The reality is this fast changing spread is an indication that Vegas saw an exposed team a week ago in Ames vs UNI.
Do you really believe what you just posted? Money is the only thing that moves the line at this point.
 
Do you really believe what you just posted? Money is the only thing that moves the line at this point.

Of course. That's how spreads work. Nobody believes in the ISU hype.

OddsShark had ISU as a 2.4 dog when the lines opened yesterday.

ESPN Fpi shifted from 59% ISU win probability 2 weeks ago to 58% Iowa.

Massey BCS now has Iowa as a 7 point favorite and 70% win probability.

Sagarin has Iowa as a 9 point favorite on a neutral field.

The Vegas money is just reacting to all the analytics.
 
Of course. That's how spreads work. Nobody believes in the ISU hype.

OddsShark had ISU as a 2.4 dog when the lines opened yesterday.

ESPN Fpi shifted from 59% ISU win probability 2 weeks ago to 58% Iowa.

Massey BCS now has Iowa as a 7 point favorite and 70% win probability.

The Vegas money is just reacting to all the analytics.
The betting public is wrong much more often than it is right. The movement is a reaction to Rutgers. This is going to be fun!
 
So why did the line go from isu -4.5 to now isu+2? I mean if everyone is so convinced the clowns are going to win wouldn’t the line go the other way?

Somebody knows something.
They know Iowa has looked pretty good the first two weeks and ISU went to 3 overtimes to beet UNI. Not that hard to figure out. Not sure why anyone would be surprised that the line has moved from its preseason position.
 
The betting public is wrong much more often than it is right. The movement is a reaction to Rutgers. This is going to be fun!

Surely you're not that dense?

Vegas money is only one indicator.

Massey, Sagarin and ESPN FPI all have Iowa favored. There are literally no remaining industry leading predictive models forecasting an ISU win.
 
Surprising that it’s working out like that, but
Epenesa >> Hesse
Reiff/Nixon > Brinks/Reiff
Lattimore > or = to M. Nelson
C. Golston = (possibly >) A Nelson.

More penetration in the backfield with LBs that are ready to clean up quicker.

If we press your WRs I don t think there’s much of a chance of ISU hitting consistently deep. I doubt there will be much of a run game.
Isn’t that always the case?! The backup is always better than the starter! LOL!!
 
Probably been stated, but with injuries at Safety, hope whoever is out there can hold their own. They will get tested.
 
Surely you're not that dense?

Vegas money is only one indicator.

Massey, Sagarin and ESPN FPI all have Iowa favored. There are literally no remaining industry leading predictive models forecasting an ISU win.

Nope, none of that counts. Clown fans are awesome at telling us what counts and what doesn’t count just to change it once their piss poor arguments are proven invalid.

Just how clown fans roll.
 
Isn’t that always the case?! The backup is always better than the starter! LOL!!

So why won’t you talk about Vegas telling us the clowns are going to win? Is it because your bs doesn’t hold anymore?
 
Surely you're not that dense?

Vegas money is only one indicator.

Massey, Sagarin and ESPN FPI all have Iowa favored. There are literally no remaining industry leading predictive models forecasting an ISU win.
This is a terrific opportunity! People forget how many starters that ISU has returning after playing in a strong bowl game last year. The early line was favoring the right team and imo, should have been a larger spread for ISU. This is a perfect setup.
 
Isn’t that always the case?! The backup is always better than the starter! LOL!!

Except at isu the starters get better from year to year unless they are on the OL and then UNI exposes their progress as a fraud.

Yikes.
 
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