Joe Lunardi Bracketology Update

[hawkeye bb n fb fan]

still has Illinois above us. They just lost to ****ing Rutgers. I support this team whole-heartedly, through thick and thin, but people that think it will only take one BTT win to get in to the NCAA Tournament are delusional. It was updated this morning by the way.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[hawkcub]

I think most think 2 wins is the number that gets us in. If we go 1-1 every bubble team would have to lose early. Even then it would be not a certain thing.

 

[Clifford C. Clavin]

It's also possible that the committee views Iowa more or less favorably than Lunardi or Palm. Those are two guys' opinions. I know they like to talk about their accuracy rate in picking the field, but it's really not that difficult to hit 95% or better accuracy. 32 teams are automatically in, and at least 30-32 of the 36 at large spots are pretty easy by the time you get to Sunday.

That being said, I tend to agree with you. With 1 win, I'll maintain some hope of being selected, but they would need a lot of early exits from other bubble teams, and that might not even be enough.

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

It's also possible that the committee views Iowa more or less favorably than Lunardi or Palm. Those are two guys' opinions. I know they like to talk about their accuracy rate in picking the field, but it's really not that difficult to hit 95% or better accuracy. 32 teams are automatically in, and at least 30-32 of the 36 at large spots are pretty easy by the time you get to Sunday.

That being said, I tend to agree with you. With 1 win, I'll maintain some hope of being selected, but they would need a lot of early exits from other bubble teams, and that might not even be enough.

This

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

It Makes no sense since Illinois was one spot ahead of us yesterday we won and they lost to Rutgers w a 150 plus RPI.

Lunardi is always wrong on 1-2 teams he's wrong on this one with Iowa having 2 more wins in conference play and won more win overall since one of Illinois wins is a D2, which doesn't count.

 

[DodgerHawki]

It's also possible that the committee views Iowa more or less favorably than Lunardi or Palm. Those are two guys' opinions. I know they like to talk about their accuracy rate in picking the field, but it's really not that difficult to hit 95% or better accuracy. 32 teams are automatically in, and at least 30-32 of the 36 at large spots are pretty easy by the time you get to Sunday.

That being said, I tend to agree with you. With 1 win, I'll maintain some hope of being selected, but they would need a lot of early exits from other bubble teams, and that might not even be enough.

This is true. For the last 4 in/First 4 out, no one really knows at this standpoint. Teams like Illinois State should be very nervous as they have more games to move the meter. In terms of Iowa vs. Illinois, Iowa has more Top 50 wins, Illinois has more Top 100 wins (due to winning twice against Iowa). It would help a lot if Illinois lost to Michigan and K-State lost to Baylor.

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

Also look at Syracuse resume it's exactly the same as iowas but Iowa doesn't have a plus 150 loss. And we are 5-8 against top 50 and they are 6-7. We have a better RPI and same record yet they are in. So it shows you how important conference tournaments will be. It's crazy looking at Iowa and Syracuse resume they are like identical. They lose their first game and we win our first game we leapfrog them.

I really don't even think Lunardi has a clue this year on those in and out due to so many 18-13 teams fighting for like 6 spots but i think cuse is out right now.

 

[Hawkeyestate81]

Also look at Syracuse resume it's exactly the same as iowas but Iowa doesn't have a plus 150 loss. And we are 5-8 against top 50 and they are 6-7. We have a better RPI and same record yet they are in. So it shows you how important conference tournaments will be. It's crazy looking at Iowa and Syracuse resume they are like identical. They lose their first game and we win our first game we leapfrog them.

I really don't even think Lunardi has a clue this year on those in and out due to so many 18-13 teams fighting for like 6 spots but i think cuse is out right now.

Cuse with a bank in 3 to beat Duke, pathetic. Cuse needs to get bounced in 1st round of ACC.

 

[relishingwinning18]

still has Illinois above us. They just lost to ****ing Rutgers. I support this team whole-heartedly, through thick and thin, but people that think it will only take one BTT win to get in to the NCAA Tournament are delusional. It was updated this morning by the way.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

We have to beat Indiana to stay on the bubble, but here's a close look at those we are competing with.

Illinois State has 2 top 100 wins, 1 top 50, and two losses that are worse than Iowa's. I don't think they are in, no matter what Lunardi says at this point. Unless everyone behind them loses their first round games of course. Their RPI is good, they played that game well, but nothing else is.

Rhode Island has 4 top 100 wins. Not sure the justification to put them in either. They are 2-3 against the top 25, 2-4 against the top 50, and 4-7 against the top 100, while Iowa sits at 2-5 vs top 25, 5-7 vs the top 50, and 9-11 vs the top 100. RI also has worse losses.

Since Xavier lost Sumner, they have gone 4-6, including 1-6 in their last 7. If they lose again right away in that tourney, who knows. Finishing 1-7 and showing you aren't the same team without your best player, will be talked about.

Baylor to beat Kstate and Michigan to beat Illinois, while we beat Indiana will really help silence any doubts with head to head vs those two. I'd definitely say we have the best chance there. If these flip, we are done.

We are very very close, whether Lunardi has accepted it yet. He's going straight off RPI rankings for the most part, which I just don't get. The committee showed last year, that's not what it's doing when they put Syracuse at 71 in.

 

[Hawkeyestate81]

Xavier stops the bleeding with a win over mighty DePaul, they also play DePaul in 1st rd of tourney and would face Butler. If they lose to Butler and we beat IU there is no way in F they should/will be ahead of us.

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

Northwestern fell to 51 in ESPN RPI so Illinois is 3-8 vs top 50 while Iowa is 5-7 vs top 50. Also how did Illinois RPI hardly go down after losing to Rutgers? ESPN now has Iowa at a 69 RPI.

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

Illinois state is toast atleast one team behind them will make a tourney run in their conference. Which will knock them out. Cuse has to be out if they lose their first round game with that bad RPI and being 18-14 then. They have been up and down all season.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Iowa is clearly a top 50 team now, but we sucked for the first third of the season and weren't even a top 100 team then. The committee no longer has recent record as a stated factor, although it can't hurt. Illannoy beat us, so you can argue which should be ahead either way. We need to win two more, or we will be very lucky to get an invite.

 

[Pepperman]

Since not "everybody" can win, I think Iowa is in if they beat Indiana.

 

[And1Hawk]

Don't get me started on potential 15 loss Vandy with a somewhat recent 20 point loss to 7 win Missouri and fewer top 50 wins than us....

 

[iahawkeyes17]

still has Illinois above us. They just lost to ****ing Rutgers. I support this team whole-heartedly, through thick and thin, but people that think it will only take one BTT win to get in to the NCAA Tournament are delusional. It was updated this morning by the way.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I don't think Lundardi has updated this since yesterday. Went on before the Iowa game and was exactly like this and still dated the 3/6. Be curious if we just one or 2 teams like Illinois in next one that comes out.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

Lunardi, Palm, and whoever can say whatever they want. None of those guys is on the committee, and I'm happy about that. As several posters have rightly pointed out, anybody could pick about 58 teams. The last 10 or so is where it gets tricky, and I don't think these individual "experts" are handling that challenge very well so far. For example, if Syracuse is in, there's no logical way to explain why Iowa isn't.

Bottom line: Iowa will do what UNI did last year: win the damn conference tourney and remove all subjectivity.

 

[El Simbolo]

Does RPI factor in Illini win over D2? They should get penalized for that like we do for +300 teams.

 

[Gridiron24]

WIN THE WHOLE DAMN B1G TOURNAMENT

 

[SotaHawk87]

WIN THE WHOLE DAMN B1G TOURNAMENT

Deal

 

[ichawk24]

Does RPI factor in Illini win over D2? They should get penalized for that like we do for +300 teams.

RPI does not include D2 games. The trick is to avoid playing low-rated D1 teams, and fill your cupcakes with D2 games. This is how the MWC gamed the RPI a few years ago, and other teams have been doing it since.

From 2012, but still germane:
http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/64576/how-to-game-the-rpi

One such coach, Nebraska's Tim Miles, did exactly that in 2012. His Colorado State team had a bafflingly high RPI throughout much of the bubble season, even as it finished a respectable-but-hardly-mindblowing fourth in the Mountain West Conference. How? Luke got Miles and CSU athletic director to outline their strategy. It includes all the usual hallmarks of RPI smarts: The Rams avoided games against really high RPI teams (even preferring to schedule against Division II opponents to avoid a knock against the RPI) went to play Duke at Cameron Indoor in an "all-reward, no-risk" affair, and scheduled as many non-conference games as possible against teams that would finish well in non-BCS leagues, like Montana, Southern Miss, and Northern Iowa. There is also luck involved -- it helps to play teams that play difficult schedules, after all.

 

[bravehawks1]

Illinois state is toast atleast one team behind them will make a tourney run in their conference. Which will knock them out. Cuse has to be out if they lose their first round game with that bad RPI and being 18-14 then. They have been up and down all season.

Syracuse plays in the ACC which is to basketball what the SEC is to football. And they are coached by Boeheim. You know how terrible it would be to leave him out of the tournament, right? Kind of like leaving Izzo out too!
Now, I will jump off the sarcasm wagon and agree with most that two wins in BTT is enough to get in. Only one win and then we need help from other bubble teams losing their first game. At this point, I think the longer you are playing is more important than the name/RPI of the team you beat. That sounds stupid, but becomes a perception thing making it harder for the committee to forget about you.

 

[Myvue]

Also look at Syracuse resume it's exactly the same as iowas but Iowa doesn't have a plus 150 loss. And we are 5-8 against top 50 and they are 6-7. We have a better RPI and same record yet they are in. So it shows you how important conference tournaments will be. It's crazy looking at Iowa and Syracuse resume they are like identical. They lose their first game and we win our first game we leapfrog them.

I really don't even think Lunardi has a clue this year on those in and out due to so many 18-13 teams fighting for like 6 spots but i think cuse is out right now.

The Big difference between Iowa and Syracuse is in the strength of each conference.

Syracuse is in a much tougher conference with 6 of their 15 teams ranked right now 6-10-14-16-21-22nd in the AP Top 25 even though they beat up on each other all season.

The Big 10 has had no more than 3 of it's 14 teams ranked almost if not every week of the season. This week they almost have only 1 holding down the 13th, 24th and 25th spots.

I have heard experts say several times this season they are predicting North Carolina will win it all even though they are only ranked 6th in this week's AP poll with a 26-6 record.

 

[SotaHawk87]

The Big difference between Iowa and Syracuse is in the strength of each conference.

Syracuse is in a much tougher conference with 6 of their 15 teams ranked right now 6-10-14-16-21-22nd in the AP Top 25 even though they beat up on each other all season.

The Big 10 has had no more than 3 of it's 14 teams ranked almost if not every week of the season. This week they almost have only 1 holding down the 13th, 24th and 25th spots.

Many experts are predicting North Carolina will win it all even though they are only ranked 6th in this week's AP poll and with a 26-6 record.

But the numbers tell a very different story.. if they gave the same record and same numbers as Iowa have their experiences not been almost the exact same??

 

[DodgerHawki]

Don't get me started on potential 15 loss Vandy with a somewhat recent 20 point loss to 7 win Missouri and fewer top 50 wins than us....

Losing to Missouri should be an auto disqualifier for any team. Tigers have not won a road game in 3 years !

 

[ChiHawk21]

Guys...

ILLINOIS BEAT US TWICE. Stop bitching.

 

[large78]

It Makes no sense since Illinois was one spot ahead of us yesterday we won and they lost to Rutgers w a 150 plus RPI.

Lunardi is always wrong on 1-2 teams he's wrong on this one with Iowa having 2 more wins in conference play and won more win overall since one of Illinois wins is a D2, which doesn't count.

Maybe if Iowa didn't lose to Illinois twice, we would be ahead of them. When there are two teams that are close together, I'm sure they take head to head into consideration.

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

The Big difference between Iowa and Syracuse is in the strength of each conference.

Syracuse is in a much tougher conference with 6 of their 15 teams ranked right now 6-10-14-16-21-22nd in the AP Top 25 even though they beat up on each other all season.

The Big 10 has had no more than 3 of it's 14 teams ranked almost if not every week of the season. This week they almost have only 1 holding down the 13th, 24th and 25th spots.

I have heard experts say several times this season they are predicting North Carolina will win it all even though they are only ranked 6th in this week's AP poll with a 26-6 record.

They have the same resumes go back to your board and actually look at their resumes and if they played such harder teams why is their RPI 9 spots behind us with the exact
Same record? Wow!

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

Myvue don't be a troll and do research before commenting. If I did a blind resume with Syracuse and Iowa I would have a very hard time telling which team to take same amount of quality wins, I think we had more in conference road wins. Same record. They have a 150 plus loss, we don't. RPI 78 for cuse, 69 for Iowa. It's a toss up or I'd give the slight edge to Iowa.

But like always you just come in here with no facts and just bullshit.

 

[StormHawk42]

I think what Myvue is saying is that Syracuse's wins are more top-heavy, which is true. I'd counter that Iowa has two good wins away from home and Syracuse has none.

 

[Ronman]

Pretty much every expert has the Big Ten as the fourth best conference in the country, ahead of the PAC-12 and the SEC, among others. Only little brother keeps propagating the myth that we are in a garbage conference. What makes this even odder is the fact that the B1G went 7-2 head to head with the mighty Big 12.

 

[hawk-i bob]

IMO the NCAA should make a rule that if you cant finish over .500 in your own conference..you don't get an invite....that would include conference tournament games. Therefore an 8-10 Illinois team would need to win 3 games in the BTT to even be considered.

It puts an emphasis on conference games played in late December all the way thru March instead of non-conference games played in November into late December. Iowa should get credit for playing its best ball in late Feb/early March but they most likely will be penalized for their 3-5 start. They were a young team that progressed (big time) defeating 3 ranked B1G teams..2 on the road.

What ranked teams did Illinois beat?...while earning that terrific 8-10 record...ok sure they got us twice..so what? That puts them at 6-10..wow what a great resume.