Jon Miller podcast nailed the minutes issue today. Big problem.

[terrehawk]

He went through what he thought would be likely minutes for each player.

He then added all of those minutes up and he was still over the maximum possible minutes by quite a bit. I want to say like 40 minutes over.

He then subtracted out what it would look like if Maishe daily, Ahmad Wagner and Dom Uhl didnt play a single minute and they were STILL over on minutes

This is going to be a major problem. And it gets even worse next year

 

[CanadaHawk]

He went through what he thought would be likely minutes for each player.

He then added all of those minutes up and he was still over the maximum possible minutes by quite a bit. I want to say like 40 minutes over.

He then subtracted out what it would look like if Maishe daily, Ahmad Wagner and Dom Uhl didnt play a single minute and they were STILL over on minutes

This is going to be a major problem. And it gets even worse next year

Minutes would be an impossible problem if they were calculated for every player to have consistent minutes every game. Only 3-4 players are going to get that.

 

[JEDN]

Unfortunately, I agree. No way to keep 14 players happy.

 

[StormHawk42]

I'll worry about it when it results in multiple L's that could have been avoided. I'd like to think it'll shake itself out and the top 10 will play. And guys will transfer. Nature of the beast. Not worth worrying about at this point however.

 

[DanL53]

Maybe we should ask that the games be sixty minutes instead of forty?

Or, we let the chips fall where they may and yeah, some guys are going to be unhappy with the minutes they get.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Sure, not everyone's going to play. And even those that play aren't going to get minutes every game. Just like last year.

 

[91hawki]

I know Fran keeps saying no Redshirts this year but I don't buy it.

Let's face it, Bohannon, Moss, Bauer, and Cook all get at least 25 minutes a game.

At the post position, I think Kriener and Jack N. will split the majority of minutes. We have seen before that Pemsl and Cook don't play well together as they both want to be on the block at the same time

So that leaves WILLIAMS, Bohannon, and Wagner getting 15 minutes a game off the bench. Maybe Dailey gets 10 minutes a game because he can score.

Uhl better enjoy his minutes in Europe cause he isn't going to get many in Iowa City.

Then Garza and Pemsl- I think Fran is crazy not to RS one or both vs. wasting a year of eligibility

It's great to be 9-10 deep. It's a problem to try to play anymore than that as it disrupts a teams rhythm

I

 

[Keeker16]

Normally I wouldnt worry about this, but Ive never thought Fran handled this well in the past. Almost like he subs guys in and tries lots of different groups and then nobody gets in a rhythm.

 

[ScoutRefugee]

I'll worry about it when it results in multiple L's that could have been avoided. I'd like to think it'll shake itself out and the top 10 will play. And guys will transfer. Nature of the beast. Not worth worrying about at this point however.

I expected it after last season. It didn't happen.

 

[mazda1]

When Fran talked about Nunge in the 4/5 group is when the pressure for minutes really ramped up. I could see Cook and Pemsl getting the 4 minutes and Ryan and Luka at the 5. If it would be Baer and Nunge at the 3 then the minutes had a visable path to working out in my view. If Jack can't or isn't ready to be a three he jumbles the 4/5 minutes and puts Dom or AW on the floor more minutes then I was thinking.

If this is reality then it's really hard for me to project much above a middle of the pack result this year. Team chemistry will be much tougher to remain a positive for us IMO too.

I understand if Jack can't play the three he can't, but it makes us have lesser talent on the floor when better players can't get minutes.

Fran knows best and with Conner and Joe in the mix next year we just have to deal with this crunch a year sooner than I'd hoped.

 

[C/Seahawk]

He went through what he thought would be likely minutes for each player.

He then added all of those minutes up and he was still over the maximum possible minutes by quite a bit. I want to say like 40 minutes over.

He then subtracted out what it would look like if Maishe daily, Ahmad Wagner and Dom Uhl didnt play a single minute and they were STILL over on minutes

This is going to be a major problem. And it gets even worse next year

Sorry, stopped reading at jon Miller. Did he tell a story from 85?

 

[perryhawk]

I hate it.....I hate to say it. But I don't see how one or more players don't transfer either at semester or after the season.

I like all these guys, I think they all have potential to be really good players......

 

[91hawki]

I hate it.....I hate to say it. But I don't see how one or more players don't transfer either at semester or after the season.

I like all these guys, I think they all have potential to be really good players......

Agree. I don't see how Dailey stays unless he gets quality minutes this year. Uhl is a senior, so he is done. Perhaps Wagner transfers or switches to football after this year.

I think things will be touchy this year unless Fran asks a couple guys to redshirt

 

[vgshwk]

I think Fran will limit the guys minutes pre big season. I also think some of the guys might limit some of their own minutes late in games if they don't improve their ft shooting.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Maybe we should ask that the games be sixty minutes instead of forty?

Or, we let the chips fall where they may and yeah, some guys are going to be unhappy with the minutes they get.

Yeah I really don't see it being a problem unless Fran lets it be one. The point is to win games, and the best players need to play. Realistically, you can only play 8-9 people with consistent minutes in college, the 10th guy ends up getting spot minutes. This isn't the NBA, with 48 minute games and 4 games a week.

If people who aren't in the rotation transfer, okay. It doesn't mean they are poor players or they weren't given a chance, just wasn't the right situation to play a lot.

 

[perryhawk]

I think Fran will limit the guys minutes pre big season. I also think some of the guys might limit some of their own minutes late in games if they don't improve their ft shooting.

My guess is that he plays everybody às much as possible in the pre B10 schedule.....and that in the tough games the rotation gets much more limited.

 

[Buddehawk]

Lets face it, if you recruit well and don't have guys going pro, you are going to have 4-5 guys not getting the minutes they want. They will have to sit and wait their turn. If the minutes don't come they will have to be good with being part of the team or transfer.

I think one of the reasons you don't see the redshirts is that kids are wanting to see where they are after 2 years and using the redshirt year to transfer and still have 2 yrs left to play rather than redshirting the 1st year and using an eligibility year to transfer later

 

[wcbtee]

Fran won't be able to give enough minutes to keep everyone happy this year. Barring injury I do not expect to see any redshirts, but wouldn't be surprised to see a transfer or two after the season.

 

[Jumpshot00]

Bottom line - win games and whatever shakes out if that is fine. I like Fran and he is paid Big money to win at a high level, not make sure all his players get the minutes they deserve because like Miller pointed out- it doesn't add up. A player may put in the work and do everything that's asked but if they can't contribute significantly to winning at a high level they shouldn't play. Sometimes a few players aren't going to be happy. Transfers are fine, as long as it's the guys not getting the most minutes. The only way it's a problem is if the best players leave for another school. Buddehawk made a good point about players not wanting to use a redshirt then transferring and having to sit right away.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Lets face it, if you recruit well and don't have guys going pro, you are going to have 4-5 guys not getting the minutes they want. They will have to sit and wait their turn. If the minutes don't come they will have to be good with being part of the team or transfer.

I think one of the reasons you don't see the redshirts is that kids are wanting to see where they are after 2 years and using the redshirt year to transfer and still have 2 yrs left to play rather than redshirting the 1st year and using an eligibility year to transfer later

Bingo we have a winner (in my opinion).

 

[David1979]

I don't see a problem. You determine who the best players are and give them the most minutes. There are guys that aren't going to be getting minutes. It's just the way it is if you have good players on the team.

I think the best 4 and 5 guys are probably going to be Pemsl, Cook, Nunge, Kriener and Garza. I think Uhl is probably the guy who sees his minutes go way down unless he has really improved. I think Wagner sees minutes at the 3 backing up Baer.

I think they will also play big a lot this year because they really only have 3 guards that you can count on in Bohannon, Ellingson and Moss.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I think one of the reasons you don't see the redshirts is that kids are wanting to see where they are after 2 years and using the redshirt year to transfer and still have 2 yrs left to play rather than redshirting the 1st year and using an eligibility year to transfer later

Good point as to a possible reason why a kid might want to hold on the redshirt.

 

[hawk-i bob]

No revelation here...it wasnt that long ago that some posters were concerned about Fran's recruiting...so now we have too much talent?

I agree with alot of the opinions on this thread...however "keep everyone happy" is not and should not be a factor. What is true playing a 13 man rotation is not practical. To me its a good thing....in the end if it leads to someone transfering..so be it.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

This topic is severely overworked IMO. What program doesn't have this problem? Dailey has had back problems. Williams has had hip / ankle problems. Pemsl is recovering from hernia surgery. Ellingson has had foot problems. Guys will tweak ankles, strain muscles, get the flu, etc. Some may not work hard enough, or play well enough, to earn PT. This seems lost on some who think PT has to equally distributed to all players to be fair.

Ultimately to have a next tier program, the goal should be for guys to get better / develop, or get recruited over. Fran finally has the ability to do the latter based on the talent he has assembled. These things will work themselves out one way or another. The guys who put in the work and get better will play and those who don't will have a decision to make regarding their future. Turnover is part of it, so the notion we need 100% retention or we are Creaning people is absurd.

 

[perryhawk]

Good discussion.....not being at practice or knowing anywhere close to what the coaching staff knows, here is my guess at what happens:

Center: Ryan K & Luka G split most of the minutes with Nungee getting some time here as well.

PF: Cook & Pemsl with Nungee getting some minutes here as well.

SF: Baer, Wagner, & Uhl....Maishee and Williams play some here whenever match ups are right or during blowouts.

2G: Moss-Brady....Maishee/CW/ a few minutes here as well.

PG: JB most of the minutes....CW and possibly others getting backup minutes.

We have talked about the difficulties of managing this line up......but there are some serious advantages as well.

1) Any injuries or illness allow for complete and or lengthy recovery....other than JB, there is no need to rush anyone back into the line up.
2) Emphasize playing time is dependent upon defense.....you aren't giving the effort or are making to many mistakes....you sit down and the next guy gets the minutes.
3) When a particular player is really in the groove, or shooting really well, etc......that is automatic justification for others at that same position to get fewer minutes.
4) I think that one of the secrets to success for a team I hate (Duke) is that in addition to great talent, the coach gets them to play really really hard..as good as they are they give great effort. This depth allows a coach to do that...hopefully it works out that way.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

This topic is severely overworked IMO. What program doesn't have this problem? Dailey has had back problems. Williams has had hip / ankle problems. Pemsl is recovering from hernia surgery. Ellingson has had foot problems. Guys will tweak ankles, strain muscles, get the flu, etc. Some may not work hard enough, or play well enough, to earn PT. This seems lost on some who think PT has to equally distributed to all players to be fair.

Ultimately to have a next tier program, the goal should be for guys to get better / develop, or get recruited over. Fran finally has the ability to do the latter based on the talent he has assembled. These things will work themselves out one way or another. The guys who put in the work and get better will play and those who don't will have a decision to make regarding their future. Turnover is part of it, so the notion we need 100% retention or we are Creaning people is absurd.

This is the right perspective. The top teams have great players seeing very little time on the court. It is a MUCH better problem to have too many good players for minutes than the alternative (remember Little Lick at PG). The odds of going through the season without some guys getting dinged up is almost zero, so you need excess available minutes. I do think that at least one player will transfer after this year, and I still believe it will be Dailey or Williams, whoever plays least. If those two guys can't play this year, they definitely won't play next.

 

[mazda1]

People who are pushing the redshirt route, why are you doing this? Next year the problem is the same and we are adding Joe and Conner in the mix in the guard court. No guard should even consider a shirt as playing time will be more available this year. Dom is the only senior and his minutes may be limited. If you are a big why burn your shirt before you know how much action you'll see. If you only get a handful of minutes you may want to transfer and you'd have already burned your shirt.

The only way a redshirt makes sense is if an injury stops you from playing.

 

[Rustys Dad]

Hopefully we simply play the best players and get the most out of those players ... Yes, they will need people to spot them but go with your horses ... I know Fran does not limit his bench ... but in this case I think there will be a very strong core of 8-9 players ... I can see Uhl getting fewer minutes ... and maybe Wagner as well ... Whatever the case, I'm flipping excited about Iowa basketball ...

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

My one criticism of Fran is he seems overly concerned with getting guys their "minutes". I understand the reasoning but think it's a detriment at times. Thought it was a big downfall of the 2014 team. One of the better games that years was @ OSU and he basically went with a 8 man rotation...went away from that.

 

[DanL53]

Many great thoughts on this thread. I hope Miller reads it and reconsiders whether we have a problem here or an asset.

Some random thoughts here, some having already been expressed by others already:

We will start out playing a lot of guys. Especially in those games with teams many posters don't understand why we schedule. If anyone is concerned we play too many guys early on, I strongly suggest doing what I did with last years schedule and take a look at minutes at the beginning of the season as compared to the end. Average minutes don't tell the whole story.

Averages, again, don't tell the whole story. We played 34 games last season. Well, seven guys played 34 games last season. Our "regulars" missed a total of 15 games due to injury or illness...or in the case of Kriener maybe didn't break into the rotation right away.

Wasn't it nice to have a Bohannon to replace Williams as starting point when Williams was struggling? That was a guy many didn't see starting (including me) and I'll bet this time last year there were some thinking he should redshirt.

The 8 or 9 guy rotation thing is again worthy of another reminder, averages don't tell the whole story. The thing is if our starters are getting starter minutes, I am not so concerned if players nine, ten and eleven are splitting five minutes a game or if just one gets fifteen minutes. Remember, Fran likes to play the hot hand and how do we know which guy is the hot hand if he doesn't see the court for a few minutes?

McCaffery has said many times that he thinks the toll on players over the course of the season requires that they get rested. Agree or not, and in my case I watch Wisconsin and wonder how they last all year if it is that big of a deal, this is the way McCaffery is going to do things. So if a starter gets 28-29 mpg as opposed to 34-35? Not much we can do about it.

Some mentions of rotations and how Fran handles his depth. This, to me, falls into the 20/20 hindsight category and I wonder if we notice it when a rotation is struggling and don't notice it when it isn't? All I know for sure, is we played Indiana last year and they came out and took us to the woodshed....within four minutes all off our starters were on the bench. All of 'em, all at once. I don't think Fran is afraid to change a lineup when it needs it. And I sure as heck am not going to pretend that I could recognize and change things as quickly as he does.

Just common sense to me, but I want the best talent we can get on the team, top to bottom. I PREFER no one transfer for lack of minutes. But these days that happens everywhere. It would happen even if we had a bad team! You can't make thirteen guys happy, and as Fran has said, that's not the Coach's job.

Honestly, the more I think about it. I think Miller just realized we have thirteen guys. Big pat on the back for that.

 

[BGHAWK]

Unfortunately, I agree. No way to keep 14 players happy.

Agree, and yet a few want the McCaffery sons to walk on so we can have 15 players.

 

[hawksense]

And great practice play is good to hear about, but what happens on the floor is when the rubber hits the road. EVERYTHING is dependent on how all that hard work translates to real game time when the lights/camera are on.

I love everyone on this team, but 14 players won't see the floor. Patience will give everyone an opportunity, but what they do with that opp is the real test.

 

[CanadaHawk]

Many great thoughts on this thread. I hope Miller reads it and reconsiders whether we have a problem here or an asset.

Some random thoughts here, some having already been expressed by others already:

We will start out playing a lot of guys. Especially in those games with teams many posters don't understand why we schedule. If anyone is concerned we play too many guys early on, I strongly suggest doing what I did with last years schedule and take a look at minutes at the beginning of the season as compared to the end. Average minutes don't tell the whole story.

Averages, again, don't tell the whole story. We played 34 games last season. Well, seven guys played 34 games last season. Our "regulars" missed a total of 15 games due to injury or illness...or in the case of Kriener maybe didn't break into the rotation right away.

Wasn't it nice to have a Bohannon to replace Williams as starting point when Williams was struggling? That was a guy many didn't see starting (including me) and I'll bet this time last year there were some thinking he should redshirt.

The 8 or 9 guy rotation thing is again worthy of another reminder, averages don't tell the whole story. The thing is if our starters are getting starter minutes, I am not so concerned if players nine, ten and eleven are splitting five minutes a game or if just one gets fifteen minutes. Remember, Fran likes to play the hot hand and how do we know which guy is the hot hand if he doesn't see the court for a few minutes?

McCaffery has said many times that he thinks the toll on players over the course of the season requires that they get rested. Agree or not, and in my case I watch Wisconsin and wonder how they last all year if it is that big of a deal, this is the way McCaffery is going to do things. So if a starter gets 28-29 mpg as opposed to 34-35? Not much we can do about it.

Some mentions of rotations and how Fran handles his depth. This, to me, falls into the 20/20 hindsight category and I wonder if we notice it when a rotation is struggling and don't notice it when it isn't? All I know for sure, is we played Indiana last year and they came out and took us to the woodshed....within four minutes all off our starters were on the bench. All of 'em, all at once. I don't think Fran is afraid to change a lineup when it needs it. And I sure as heck am not going to pretend that I could recognize and change things as quickly as he does.

Just common sense to me, but I want the best talent we can get on the team, top to bottom. I PREFER no one transfer for lack of minutes. But these days that happens everywhere. It would happen even if we had a bad team! You can't make thirteen guys happy, and as Fran has said, that's not the Coach's job.

Honestly, the more I think about it. I think Miller just realized we have thirteen guys. Big pat on the back for that.

Actually, I think it's more likely to get transfers after a period when a team isn't doing well and a player isn't used much who feels he could have helped: ie Fleming and Hutton.

 

[DanL53]

Actually, I think it's more likely to get transfers after a period when a team isn't doing well and a player isn't used much who feels he could have helped: ie Fleming and Hutton.

Makes sense. All I know is we didn't have any transfers after last season and certainly some of those guys did see the writing on the wall and determined to let their efforts either pan out into participation, or not.

I am really struggling to see a downside except for chemistry concerns and haven't we just seen that there were apparently none at the end of the season? That, these days is rare.

 

[hooper56]

What is different this year as some have mentioned, we won't need someone to play with a sports hernia,broken hand or twisted ankle. I also think the lineup will change from game to game depending on the matchups and who has been playing well in practice.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I have so much less heartburn than others seem to about limiting the rotation. Fran has demonstrated that he can use minutes on a game by game basis. He'll sort it out this year too.

 

[jasonrann]

I have so much less heartburn than others seem to about limiting the rotation. Fran has demonstrated that he can use minutes on a game by game basis. He'll sort it out this year too.

I'm with you. I view it as a luxury. We have so much versatility Fran can really experiment with different groupings. He could even modify the starting five from game to game depending on what the matchups are. These players seem intent on putting team results ahead of individual spotlight. It's pretty refreshing.

 

[LifelongHawk]

Pretend its a non-issue all you want, you're dealing with kids and hopes and dreams and ego and talent and attention. Fran says he thinks about it a lot, and for good reason, it at the very least is a potential problem. Add the wild card of a coach's kid into the mix just for good measure.

I very much like the strategy Fran has adopted for the trip, groups of 4 sitting out each game. That way the minutes and substitution patterns for each game can mimic the regular season, and Fran can stick with his fair chance for all mantra.

The fair chance can then extend through the grind of preseason practices and workouts. And will no doubt continue through the little sisters of the poor portion of the schedule.

Fran says he relies on experience that everything will work it itself out during the process. Sure hope so. Maybe Dom's so happy with the trip home he's willing to be a senior leader from the land of the dnp.

One positive unmentioned with some talent throughout the bench is the possibility of specialty units. Dailey, Williams, Nunge, Baer, and Moss w/ a trap. Or a Wagner Garza Kriener zone to pack the paint. Or a JBo Ellingson Nunge Moss Baer bomb squad, go full Grinnell.

Look forward to seeing what we will see.

 

[kceasthawk]

Lets face it, if you recruit well and don't have guys going pro, you are going to have 4-5 guys not getting the minutes they want. They will have to sit and wait their turn. If the minutes don't come they will have to be good with being part of the team or transfer.

I think one of the reasons you don't see the redshirts is that kids are wanting to see where they are after 2 years and using the redshirt year to transfer and still have 2 yrs left to play rather than redshirting the 1st year and using an eligibility year to transfer later

Excellent post. Would everyone rather Fran hadn't recruited better post players the last two years then the guys who were already on the team. Were all just too close to the players because their OUR guys. This is not an Iowa thing. Average two players per Div 1 team transfer every year. Obviously Fran has done a great job of keeping most of these kids engaged to this point. There will be losses if he can keep recruiting top 50 to 100 level players. KU has guys transfer almost every year. Its part of the culture of todays player. Redshirting talented players only prolongs the situation of not having available scholarships.

 

[CyberJJ]

The point I haven't seen made here is just how competitive practices should be this year. The cream will rise to the top.