Legit/real or not, WH tweet leaks are fantastic entertainment...

[Joes Place]

The thing I read showed it tended to double about every 3 days...

This is correct. You can spreadsheet it yourself.

89 cases on 3/1
Multiply daily by 1.30 (it's actually more than doubling by a smidge)

You get 1226 cases on 3/11 (we're actually at 1285)

1.3^3 = ~2.2x every 3 days

At that rate, we have

• ~6000 cases by St Patties' Day
• 250k by the end of the month
• 1M by about April 6th
• >2.5M by April 9th

We'd have >10M by Tax Day.

So, either you start quarantining people in large numbers now, or that's where you end up in about 1 month. Again, that's not being "alarmist"; that is epidemiology math.

That said, the expected doubling time is 6 days, not 3. So some of this may be 'catching up' on testing. But if you do nothing, the math is the same, it just takes a few more days to hit those numbers.

 

[Joes Place]

The GOOD news here, is that about half the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers are now listed as "recovered". 7 dead, which is a 1% mortality.

Ergo, this is consistent with the numbers from the Medium article: if your systems are NOT overwhelmed, mortality is 0.5% to 1%. Expect 4% to 5% mortality when those systems can no longer keep up.

 

[TheCainer]

This is correct. You can spreadsheet it yourself.

89 cases on 3/1
Multiply daily by 1.30 (it's actually more than doubling by a smidge)

You get 1226 cases on 3/11 (we're actually at 1285)

1.3^3 = ~2.2x every 3 days

At that rate, we have

• ~6000 cases by St Patties' Day
• 250k by the end of the month
• 1M by about April 6th
• >2.5M by April 9th

We'd have >10M by Tax Day.

So, either you start quarantining people in large numbers now, or that's where you end up in about 1 month. Again, that's not being "alarmist"; that is epidemiology math.

That said, the expected doubling time is 6 days, not 3. So some of this may be 'catching up' on testing. But if you do nothing, the math is the same, it just takes a few more days to hit those numbers.

I just got more information from your post than the President revealed tonight.

Thanks, I guess.

 

[funksouljon]

We're waiting for Jared? To finish his research? And come to his own conclusion?

We're all gonna die

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He has to finish reading this books about this to solve it just like he did with the Palestine / Israel issue.

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[hawkeyetraveler]

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And unbelievably it was even worse than that. The man sent stock futures plummeting because he accidentally (or was it?) suspended all trade with Europe for an hour.

I thought he was a reckless fool, but gotta admit I did not see that big a screwup on the horizon.

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[SSG T]

Making crap up as he goes...again

 

[BelemNole]

Making crap up as he goes...again

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[St. Louis Hawk]

Nancy! Aka Karen Black. Loved me some Karen Black back in the day as a young boy. Way better than Charlene in that movie!

 

[gohawks50]

Making crap up as he goes...again

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On The View yesterday Whoopi said her business partner returned from Italy on Monday. When he arrived back in the US the airport officials told him welcome home. There was no testing and he was free to go as he pleased. He has voluntarily self quarantined.

 

[SSG T]

Someone mentioned Biden's cognitive decline?

 

[SSG T]

 

[SSG T]

They really aren't very good at this

 

[SSG T]

So, is a violation of the Hatch Act considered a "High Crime and Misdemeanor"?

 

[Joes Place]

JANUARY, you say....???

 

[Joes Place]

Yes....but this is all fine, because we "owned the Libs"

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[SSG T]

This is from an actual, official campaign Twitter feed.

So Christian, so Presidential...

 

[SSG T]

I'll let one of you guys find an appropriate thread to drop this in. How will limiting medical supplies to American made only benefit anyone in the short term? Well, medically, that is...

 

[DFSNOLE]

 

[Joes Place]

 

[Joes Place]

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When it's over, everyone goes to jail.
Those OOJ charges are still pending. All the Emoluments violations are going to burn his business to the ground. And it'll be delicious.

 

[Joes Place]

 

[SSG T]

Well, this won't end well...

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

Feb 26:

"[W]hen you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

 

[Joes Place]

Feb 26:

"[W]hen you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

 

[TheCainer]

Making crap up as he goes...again

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smfh

 

[TheCainer]

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JANUARY, you say....???

A public lynching would be too good.

 

[SSG T]

And...

 

[Joes Place]