Originally posted by icparkerhawk:
Originally posted by Arbor1:
40% of how many shots?!? People are totally blowing the 3 thing out of proportion to reality. If 100% of their shots are 3's I guarantee Iowa wins.
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40% of roughly 27 3s is there average. Roughly 11 made threes. 47% overall (so higher on twos exclusively). If you assume, conservatively, that they hit 47% from 2 then, you get just over 15 made 2s on average. Grand tota of just over 63 points (add in FTs and account for a higher % on 2s since 47 is skewed down for the 40% 3% and you get to their roughly 80 ppg). Iowa, on the other hand, shoots about 33% from 3 and attempts just over 17 a game for 5.5 makes a game from 3. Just south of 43% shooting overall and you get about 16.5 made 2s a game. Grand total of just south of 50 (compared to 63 for Davidson). Add in the FTs and higher % on 2s and you get our average of 69 ppg.
The math isn't in our favor. We have to slow down their 3s (being away from their hs gym should help), limit second chances and score efficiently. If Jok or Oglesby or Uthoff is on, we might be ok, but I think we need a 3 pt threat to compete here. Just scoring in the paint won't do it unless we find a way to get off about 7-8 more shots than normal. It's possible given Davidson plays poor D, but I think we probably need to consider some adjustments. This the point of the article. Or we can act all high and mighty and watch the board implode Friday night when they knock down 15 treys on us to win by a dozen or so.
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