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March 13: IOWA ends up #34 in the NET Rankings with 8 Quad 1 Wins, 5 Quad 2 Wins. 2 Quad 3 LOSSES

They're out... we're #33.

San Diego St. #3 (Q1L)
Michigan #21 (Q1L)
Texas Tech #34 (Q1W)
DePaul #43 (Q2L)
Minnesota #48 (Q2W)
Syracuse #75 (Q1W)
Cincinnati #110 (Q3)
North Florida #209 (Cutoff of Q3 Home Win is 160)
Oral Roberts #211 (Cutoff of Q3 Home Win is 160)
 
A look at the B1G Conference:

Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1
1 Ohio St. Big Ten 9-1 1-1 0-0 8-0 0-0
11 Maryland Big Ten 10-1 0-1 3-0 7-0 0-0
18 Penn St. Big Ten 9-2 1-1 1-1 7-0 0-0
21 Michigan Big Ten 8-3 0-2 3-0 5-1 0-0
29 Michigan St. Big Ten 7-3 1-0 3-2 3-1 0-0
32 Illinois Big Ten 8-3 1-2 0-0 7-1 1-0
33 Iowa Big Ten 8-3 2-1 1-1 5-1 0-0
36 Indiana Big Ten 10-1 0-1 1-0 9-0 0-0
44 Purdue Big Ten 6-4 0-2 1-1 5-1 0-0
48 Minnesota Big Ten 5-5 0-3 0-1 5-1 0-0
51 Wisconsin Big Ten 5-5 0-2 0-3 5-0 0-0
61 Rutgers Big Ten 8-3 0-2 0-1 8-0 0-0
153 Nebraska Big Ten 5-6 0-3 2-1 3-2 0-0
174 Northwestern Big Ten 5-4 1-1 1-1 3-2 0-0
 
B1G plus other teams of "interest"

Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1
1 Ohio St. Big Ten 9-1 1-1 0-0 8-0 0-0
11 Maryland Big Ten 10-1 0-1 3-0 7-0 0-0
18 Penn St. Big Ten 9-2 1-1 1-1 7-0 0-0
21 Michigan Big Ten 8-3 0-2 3-0 5-1 0-0
28 UNI (Road wins have helped, apparently)
29 Michigan St. Big Ten 7-3 1-0 3-2 3-1 0-0
32 Illinois Big Ten 8-3 1-2 0-0 7-1 1-0
33 Iowa Big Ten 8-3 2-1 1-1 5-1 0-0
36 Indiana Big Ten 10-1 0-1 1-0 9-0 0-0
43 DePaul (hopefully they keep winning and prove to be a not-bad-loss)
44 Purdue Big Ten 6-4 0-2 1-1 5-1 0-0
48 Minnesota Big Ten 5-5 0-3 0-1 5-1 0-0
51 Wisconsin Big Ten 5-5 0-2 0-3 5-0 0-0
61 Rutgers Big Ten 8-3 0-2 0-1 8-0 0-0
82 ISU Ames
153 Nebraska Big Ten 5-6 0-3 2-1 3-2 0-0
174 Northwestern Big Ten 5-4 1-1 1-1 3-2 0-0
186 Drake

The best is that this Iowa team seems to have gelled into one team with a strong fighting spirit.
 
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A look at the B1G Conference:

Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1
1 Ohio St. Big Ten 9-1 1-1 0-0 8-0 0-0
11 Maryland Big Ten 10-1 0-1 3-0 7-0 0-0
18 Penn St. Big Ten 9-2 1-1 1-1 7-0 0-0
21 Michigan Big Ten 8-3 0-2 3-0 5-1 0-0
29 Michigan St. Big Ten 7-3 1-0 3-2 3-1 0-0
32 Illinois Big Ten 8-3 1-2 0-0 7-1 1-0
33 Iowa Big Ten 8-3 2-1 1-1 5-1 0-0
36 Indiana Big Ten 10-1 0-1 1-0 9-0 0-0
44 Purdue Big Ten 6-4 0-2 1-1 5-1 0-0
48 Minnesota Big Ten 5-5 0-3 0-1 5-1 0-0
51 Wisconsin Big Ten 5-5 0-2 0-3 5-0 0-0
61 Rutgers Big Ten 8-3 0-2 0-1 8-0 0-0
153 Nebraska Big Ten 5-6 0-3 2-1 3-2 0-0
174 Northwestern Big Ten 5-4 1-1 1-1 3-2 0-0

So as it currently stands we still have 4 more Q1 home opportunities and 7 Q1 away opportunities (includes a semi-away vs Penn St.)
 
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Dec 16, 2019 OFFICIAL Sorting of our Wins & Losses

Remember that whatever quadrant the wins and losses fall into now might not be the quadrant they end up in March. There was movement last year (from one quadrant to another) and there will be movement this year as well.


Sorting of our 8-3 Record:


Quadrant 1 (2-2): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

WIN
#34 Texas Tech (N)
WIN #75 Syracuse (A)

LOSS #3 San Diego State (N)
LOSS #21 Michigan (A)


Quadrant 2 (2-1): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.

WIN
#48 Minnesota (H)
WIN #82 Iowa State (A)

LOSS #43: DePaul (H)

Quadrant 3 (0-0): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.


Quadrant 4 (4-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353

WIN
#341: SIU-Edwardsville (H)
WIN #211: Oral Roberts (H)
WIN #209: North Florida (H)
WIN #320: Cal Poly (H)
 
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Some conference comparisons, with 2 of Iowa's victories in red.:

Note that IOWA is rated higher than defending National Champion Virginia.


Big 12
Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1

2 Kansas Big 12 9-1 0-0 3-1 6-0 1-0
5 Baylor Big 12 8-1 1-0 2-1 5-0 0-0
12 West Virginia Big 12 9-1 1-1 2-0 6-0 0-0
34 Texas Tech Big 12 6-3 0-1 2-2 4-0 0-0
37 Oklahoma Big 12 7-2 1-1 3-1 3-0 0-0
41 Oklahoma St. Big 12 8-2 2-0 2-0 4-2 0-0
45 Texas Big 12 9-1 1-0 2-1 6-0 0-0
82 Iowa St. Big 12 6-4 0-1 1-2 5-1 0-0
87 TCU Big 12 8-2 0-0 1-1 7-1 1-0
131 Kansas St. Big 12 6-4 1-0 0-3 5-1 0-0

ACC
Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1

8 Louisville ACC 10-1 1-0 1-1 8-0 0-0
13 Duke ACC 9-1 2-0 3-0 4-1 0-0
27 Florida St. ACC 8-2 1-2 2-0 5-0 0-0
39 Virginia ACC 8-1 1-1 2-0 5-0 0-0
50 NC State ACC 8-2 2-0 0-1 6-1 0-0
62 Virginia Tech ACC 8-3 1-0 1-2 6-1 0-0
75 Syracuse ACC 5-5 1-1 0-2 4-2 0-0
81 Pittsburgh ACC 7-3 1-1 2-0 4-2 0-0
89 Miami (FL) ACC 6-3 2-0 1-2 3-1 0-0
95 North Carolina ACC 6-4 1-1 2-1 3-2 0-0
103 Wake Forest ACC 6-5 1-3 2-1 3-1 0-0
105 Notre Dame ACC 8-3 0-2 0-0 8-1 0-0
128 Georgia Tech ACC 4-4 1-2 0-0 3-2 0-0
139 Clemson ACC 5-5 0-2 1-1 4-2 0-0
143 Boston College ACC 7-5 2-1 0-0 5-4 0-0
 
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Damn. You guys were right on. :)

Since the NET was announced last year I have had an intern building a statistical model that attempts to deconstruct and replicate the NET black box. We have also incorporated predictive AI into the methodology which allows us to use multiple models to forecast the outcomes of future games and the impact they will have on both the NET rankings and other well known models. For example we can say with 95% certainty that Iowa has a 69% chance of making the tournament with an average projected seed of 8.0085.
 
Interesting note. San Diego St has moved up to #1.

Also I remember last year griping how Iowa always seemed to move down on their days off and ISU was always moving up on their days off. That trend is starting again. Not too extreme, but it just triggered my memory from last year.

Iowa at #34 and ISU at #79.

Texas Tech has dropped to #40 with a win over Southern Miss. Minnesota dropped 7 spots without playing. Those obviously didn’t help.
 
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I'm not sure this is worth posting... as folks that complain about the movement on off days seem to struggle to understand the difference between rankings and ratings.

The NET list is a RANKING, which means that it is just putting things in order. There is an underlying RATING behind the scenes that is constantly shifting with each new piece of data.

Teams could be rated like this (higher is better):
A: 100
B: 2.0
C: 1.9
D: 1.8
E: 1.7

And it would be very easy to see E move up from 5th to 2nd without playing. Also, even with a devastating loss, team A would not move from 1 to 2 in this scenario because their underlying RATING was so much better than the next RANKED team.

Hopefully this helps someone who is confused and/or frustrated this year.
 
No struggle at all. Just found interesting that apparently Iowa seems to always be closer to the teams below them and ISU always seems to be closer to the teams ahead of them.

I find it humorous that after a year of that going ‘against’ Iowa that this year starts the same way. It would seem it would be more of an up and down thing. As opposed to always staying the same or sliding down on off days.

Hopefully the hit for beating Kennesaw won’t be too bad. I’m thinking that may put us back in the 40’s after beating Cincy.
 
Yeah, we'll likely drop some unless we absolutely demolish Kennesaw (thinking 30+). If we can cobble together a winning record in the B1G, I think we'll pretty much tread water all year, maybe move up slightly to the high 20s. The schedule is ridiculous.

I've actually wondered whether the B1G does itself a disservice by having teams that are so good. It seems like the league would really want to cluster teams around #10-15, #25-30 and #60-75 to still have a ton of Q1 & Q2 games, leaving a few opportunities for marquee wins, but having that many more winnable Q1 games.

I don't think anyone expects to go into Columbus, East Lansing, Ann Arbor, or West Lafayette and come out with a W. But Rutgers (57), Minnesota (55), or Wisconsin (48) are way more reasonable as Q1 opportunities go.
 
Good chance to move up today. Several teams ahead of us took unexpected losses (Arizona St. got drilled by 40, too, so that should be a significant drop for them)

Tennessee (24)
LSU (26)
Arizona St (29)

Edit: Sure enough, we're up to #29
 
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Is there something lower than a Quad 4 opponent?
Tonight, PSU takes on an 0-11 Central Connecticut team. When’s the last time Iowa played a team that was 0-11?
 
Remember the 7 game gauntlet and how we feared how we would do after losing badly to DePaul?

Well, we went 5-2 in that rugged 7-game stretch with wins over Texas Tech, Syracuse, Minnesota, Iowa State and Cincinnati. Only 1 of those (Minnesota) was at home.

@Hawksfor3 its time for the RELB!!

December 23 NET Rankings:

Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1
2 2 Ohio St. Big Ten 11-1 1-1 1-0 9-0 0-0
16 16 Michigan Big Ten 9-3 0-2 3-0 6-1 0-0
18 18 Penn St. Big Ten 10-2 1-1 1-1 8-0 0-0
20 20 Maryland Big Ten 10-2 0-2 3-0 7-0 0-0
22 22 Michigan St. Big Ten 9-3 2-0 3-2 4-1 0-0
26 27 Iowa Big Ten 9-3 2-1 2-1 5-1 0-0
28 30 Minnesota Big Ten 6-5 0-3 1-1 5-1 0-0
29 33 Indiana Big Ten 11-1 0-1 2-0 9-0 0-0
39 47 Rutgers Big Ten 9-3 0-2 0-1 9-0 0-0
41 46 Illinois Big Ten 7-4 1-2 0-1 6-1 1-0
45 44 Wisconsin Big Ten 6-5 0-2 0-3 6-0 0-0
47 43 Purdue Big Ten 7-5 1-2 1-2 5-1 0-0
143 146 Northwestern Big Ten 5-6 1-2 1-1 3-3 0-0
178 181 Nebraska Big Ten 5-7 0-3 2-1 3-3 0-0
 
Sorting of our Wins & Losses

Remember that whatever quadrant the wins and losses fall into now might not be the quadrant they end up in March. There was movement last year (from one quadrant to another) and there will be movement this year as well.


Sorting of our 9-3 Record:


NOTE: Rankings listed below are from Dec 26, 2019

Quadrant 1 (3-2): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75.

WIN
#32 Texas Tech (N)
WIN #28 Minnesota (H)
WIN #69 Iowa State (A)

LOSS #1 San Diego State (N)
LOSS #16 Michigan (A)


Quadrant 2 (2-1): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.

WIN #79 Syracuse (A)
WIN #87 Cincinnati (N)

LOSS #36: DePaul (H)


Quadrant 3 (1-0): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.

WIN #109: Oral Roberts (H)


Quadrant 4 (3-0): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353

WIN
#349: SIU-Edwardsville (H)
WIN #208: North Florida (H)
WIN #322: Cal Poly (H)


Iowa's NET Ranking During the 2019-2020 Season:

#25 December 29
#26 December 23-December 28
#27 December 22
#28 December 21
#33 December 16 (initial ranking)
 
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19 games left on the 2019-2020 reg season schedule:

Quadrant 1 (11 games): Home vs a 1-30 team, Neutral site vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75


Ohio State
Penn State (N)
Penn State
Maryland
at Maryland
Michigan
at Mich State
at Indiana
at Illinois

at Purdue
at Minnesota

.
Quadrant 2 (4 games): Home vs a 31-75, Neutral site vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135.


Illinois
Purdue
Wisconsin
Rutgers

Quadrant 3 (2 games): Home vs a 76-160, Neutral site vs 101-200, Away vs 135-240.


at Nebraska
at Northwestern

Quadrant 4 (2 games): Home vs a 161-353, Neutral vs 201-353, Away vs 241-353


Kennesaw State
Nebraska

ALL B1G TEAMS' (Dec 26, 2019) NET RANKINGS:

Rank..Previous..Road..Neutral..Home..Non Div 1
2 2 Ohio St. Big Ten 11-1 1-1 1-0 9-0 0-0
16 16 Michigan Big Ten 9-3 0-2 3-0 6-1 0-0
18 18 Penn St. Big Ten 10-2 1-1 1-1 8-0 0-0
20 20 Maryland Big Ten 10-2 0-2 3-0 7-0 0-0
22 22 Michigan St. Big Ten 9-3 2-0 3-2 4-1 0-0

26 26 Iowa Big Ten 9-3 2-1 2-1 5-1 0-0
28 29 Minnesota Big Ten 6-5 0-3 1-1 5-1 0-0
30 30 Indiana Big Ten 11-1 0-1 2-0 9-0 0-0
40 39 Rutgers Big Ten 9-3 0-2 0-1 9-0 0-0
44 46 Wisconsin Big Ten 6-5 0-2 0-3 6-0 0-0
45 47 Purdue Big Ten 7-5 1-2 1-2 5-1 0-0
48 43 Illinois Big Ten 7-4 1-2 0-1 6-1 1-0
145 145 Northwestern Big Ten 5-6 1-2 1-1 3-3 0-0
175 179 Nebraska Big Ten 5-7 0-3 2-1 3-3 0-0

 
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