If you have an exceptional coach, then a 49% Big10 winning percentage, a little above middle of the pack in B1G, 0 or 1 win in BTT, and 0 or 1 win in NCAA tourney is not the ceiling. Wisconsin used to be a wasteland in B-ball back in the days of Lute Olson. There have been system coaches that have won B1G titles without 1-and-done talent. Bo Ryan, Gene Keady, Matt Painter.
Maybe Fran is on the cusp of putting together something well above average, but it has been a long wait, and his lack of focus on defense is part of the reason some of his seasons have gone sideways. He's also had a huge problem with guys transferring out on him and hasn't had much success in getting grad transfers to come to Iowa, despite usually having open schollies.
A huge problem of guys transferring out? Is this for real? Iowa has had two players leave who weren’t recruiting misses, passed over, or encouraged to leave. Depending on your stance on Isaiah Moss, you could argue one. Hardly a problem.
Fran has made his stance on grad transfers quite clear so I wouldn’t expect a lot of them in the future. You never know though, depending on what happens this off season he may be forced to go that route again like last year.