Moneyball

[Sandor45]

Great movie. If you haven’t seen it, watch it than come back here to discuss.

Billy Bean broke it down to buying runs, which equals wins.
Especially in this age of NIL, we need to rethink how we recruit and spend our money.
What are we buying?
Are we buying takedowns? (3 pt TD)
Are we buying back points?
Are we buying training partners?
(As it pertains to the HWC and it’s affect on the college team, I’d say this is most important)

I’m curious what the coaches are thinking when spending this NIL money?
Was Nagao worth $250k because of his riding ability?
Could we find someone of equal value on the mat for less money?
Is there a Nagao or Caliendo out there that’s been overlooked by Penn st?

 

[SASHmoney]

We’re not the athletics. We’re big market. I’m sure the program self scouts and does the best it can to allocate resources. Plus I don’t think that analytics translate the same in wrestling.

 

[SPOONER]

Great movie. If you haven’t seen it, watch it than come back here to discuss.

Billy Bean broke it down to buying runs, which equals wins.
Especially in this age of NIL, we need to rethink how we recruit and spend our money.
What are we buying?
Are we buying takedowns? (3 pt TD)
Are we buying back points?
Are we buying training partners?
(As it pertains to the HWC and it’s affect on the college team, I’d say this is most important)

I’m curious what the coaches are thinking when spending this NIL money?
Was Nagao worth $250k because of his riding ability?
Could we find someone of equal value on the mat for less money?
Is there a Nagao or Caliendo out there that’s been overlooked by Penn st?

How drunk are you?

 

[ChiPackHawk]

A Billy Bean wrestling team would be top 2 in duels but struggle to win a trophy at Nationals. Not the way to win titles.

 

[manatree]

A Billy Bean wrestling team would be top 2 in duels but struggle to win a trophy at Nationals. Not the way to win titles.

Pretty risky. Second place in a duel often dies.

 

[Sandor45]

How drunk are you?

Ha, you got me.

 

[lookleft goright]

How drunk are you?

I was thinking how high.

 

[Sandor45]

How drunk are you?

Still a valid question. How do we allocate our money in modern college sports?
A one year and done guy is worth way less than a guy with 2 plus years and aspirations to compete in the HWC.
A guy who can change the culture of the program is worth a lot.
Can we incentivize wrestlers to stay?
If you AA this year, we promise to payout this much your final year.
It’s a business now.

 

[SPOONER]

Still a valid question. How do we allocate our money in modern college sports?
A one year and done guy is worth way less than a guy with 2 plus years and aspirations to compete in the HWC.
A guy who can change the culture of the program is worth a lot.
Can we incentivize wrestlers to stay?
If you AA this year, we promise to payout this much your final year.
It’s a business now.

Bold. I probably would have just let it sit, myself.

 

[IRONBIRD]

START with getting the word out that ANY top 10P4P guy gets a minimum FULL RIDE! ADD that if you are a starter you receive X more $$$ on top. An AA gets even more and a NC still more. Keep going for 2x, 3x, and 4x champs. World medalists champions, O medalists champions.

Raise money with camps, clinics, t-shirts autographs etc.... A guy like Spencer Lee is worth his weight in gold and he was injured!!!

Make it very clear that if you make it at IOWA you will have the greatest opportunity to use your wrestling skills to make $$$$. With the fan base, new facility, girls team etc.... There is tons of potential. Host a camp with SL, how many kids could you bring in? how much could you charge? How many T-shirts could you sell......

He wins an Olympic title, it would all increase even more. Plus having many top kids in an IOWA camp would certainly not hurt! Having them see the facilities, talk to other wrestlers it is a snowball effect.

The kid VITO who tore it up at NCAAs and has now moved on in FS has helped his fathers club and I do not think he has even been back home yet! He comes home to run a clinic and it will be a sell out in minutes!!!

This is a very simple way to pay for top kids, and all others could work the camps and make money too. As was said, it is a business, run it like one!!!

 

[lookleft goright]

START with getting the word out that ANY top 10P4P guy gets a minimum FULL RIDE! ADD that if you are a starter you receive X more $$$ on top. An AA gets even more and a NC still more. Keep going for 2x, 3x, and 4x champs. World medalists champions, O medalists champions.

Raise money with camps, clinics, t-shirts autographs etc.... A guy like Spencer Lee is worth his weight in gold and he was injured!!!

Make it very clear that if you make it at IOWA you will have the greatest opportunity to use your wrestling skills to make $$$$. With the fan base, new facility, girls team etc.... There is tons of potential. Host a camp with SL, how many kids could you bring in? how much could you charge? How many T-shirts could you sell......

He wins an Olympic title, it would all increase even more. Plus having many top kids in an IOWA camp would certainly not hurt! Having them see the facilities, talk to other wrestlers it is a snowball effect.

The kid VITO who tore it up at NCAAs and has now moved on in FS has helped his fathers club and I do not think he has even been back home yet! He comes home to run a clinic and it will be a sell out in minutes!!!

This is a very simple way to pay for top kids, and all others could work the camps and make money too. As was said, it is a business, run it like one!!!

I think if a kid wants to maximize his earning potential above all else, he will not have the results of the guys who do it for the love of the sport and who take culture and the right fit into account. Once a person gets tot he place of the right culture and right fit, maximizing his earning potential will not interfere with his results as much. JMHO
That being said, it is wise to have the resource in place for the kids by having camps etc and running things like a business makes a lot of sense.

 

[burk11]

Let the market decide. 'A rising tide WILL lift all boats'.

 

[ping72]

Great movie. If you haven’t seen it, watch it than come back here to discuss.

Billy Bean broke it down to buying runs, which equals wins.
Especially in this age of NIL, we need to rethink how we recruit and spend our money.
What are we buying?
Are we buying takedowns? (3 pt TD)
Are we buying back points?
Are we buying training partners?
(As it pertains to the HWC and it’s affect on the college team, I’d say this is most important)

I’m curious what the coaches are thinking when spending this NIL money?
Was Nagao worth $250k because of his riding ability?
Could we find someone of equal value on the mat for less money?
Is there a Nagao or Caliendo out there that’s been overlooked by Penn st?

I get what you’re saying, and it is an interesting premise. I’m wondering how effectively it would translate to wrestling.

i’m sure you can look up all of the stats and create a profile for a national champion, all American, etc. But in moneyball they found things not valued appropriately (obp or guys who didn’t look the part, for example). I’m not sure where you’d find that in wrestling: do guys do well b/c they try harder to turn and get back points? Or do better wrestlers get more back points b/c they’re just better?

I would guess you might be able to find some interesting stats that have merit: number of scrambles won? Shots finished when in deep? Shots defended when in deep?

But then even if you find that, in baseball there is expected stat growth/decline based on age/experience and moving up class levels. They are fairly good at predicting. What a person stats will do they jump from AA to AAA. There is enough data to do that. It would be interesting to see, but in wrestling I think it would be tougher to calculate HS to college jump (disparate levels of competition in HS areas). Maybe something with Fargo or other national tournaments? Or even something like wrestling unattached in d3 open tournaments as a redshirt to being in the lineup as a rs frosh.

 

[Sandor45]

I get what you’re saying, and it is an interesting premise. I’m wondering how effectively it would translate to wrestling.

i’m sure you can look up all of the stats and create a profile for a national champion, all American, etc. But in moneyball they found things not valued appropriately (obp or guys who didn’t look the part, for example). I’m not sure where you’d find that in wrestling: do guys do well b/c they try harder to turn and get back points? Or do better wrestlers get more back points b/c they’re just better?

I would guess you might be able to find some interesting stats that have merit: number of scrambles won? Shots finished when in deep? Shots defended when in deep?

But then even if you find that, in baseball there is expected stat growth/decline based on age/experience and moving up class levels. They are fairly good at predicting. What a person stats will do they jump from AA to AAA. There is enough data to do that. It would be interesting to see, but in wrestling I think it would be tougher to calculate HS to college jump (disparate levels of competition in HS areas). Maybe something with Fargo or other national tournaments? Or even something like wrestling unattached in d3 open tournaments as a redshirt to being in the lineup as a rs frosh.

It’s unfortunate that wrestling doesn’t track their stats like baseball does. In baseball, everything is tracked and quantified so easier to do Sabremetric analysis.
In wrestling, little to nothing.
It’d add so much appeal to know the stats of each wrestler pop up on a graphic prior to each match.
Season
average takedown per match:
Average riding time:
Average committed shots:
Average escape time:
Shot completion percentage:
Etc.

I’m curious how Iowa recruits since NIL and now money distribution affects it.

 

[Sandor45]

Bold. I probably would have just let it sit, myself.

And that’s you.
A discussion idea sparked by a cocktail doesn’t make it any less of a valid discussion topic.
I think Steve Jobs was on hallucinogens when he came up with the concept of Apple.
Cheers

 

[anon_0pi0cv8t1ggvb]

And that’s you.
A discussion idea sparked by a cocktail doesn’t make it any less of a valid discussion topic.
I think Steve Jobs was on hallucinogens when he came up with the concept of Apple.
Cheers

I thought it was a prerequisite to be drunk or high when posting on this forum.

Cheers!

 

[bourbon n blues]

Great movie. If you haven’t seen it, watch it than come back here to discuss.

Billy Bean broke it down to buying runs, which equals wins.
Especially in this age of NIL, we need to rethink how we recruit and spend our money.
What are we buying?
Are we buying takedowns? (3 pt TD)
Are we buying back points?
Are we buying training partners?
(As it pertains to the HWC and it’s affect on the college team, I’d say this is most important)

I’m curious what the coaches are thinking when spending this NIL money?
Was Nagao worth $250k because of his riding ability?
Could we find someone of equal value on the mat for less money?
Is there a Nagao or Caliendo out there that’s been overlooked by Penn st?

Wrestling doesn’t work like that , it’s not baseball and it’s not twenty some years ago.

Wrestling is a one on one combat sport. Ball sport stats won’t work in something like this.

 

[el dub]

Wrestling doesn’t work like that , it’s not baseball and it’s not twenty some years ago.

Wrestling is a one on one combat sport. Ball sport stats won’t work in something like this.

It’s also a team sport. With goal of winning team title at endo season. Ten on roster. Which ten are top?

 

[bourbon n blues]

It’s also a team sport. With goal of winning team title at endo season. Ten on roster. Which ten are top?

Yep, you can’t use baseball as an example for wrestling. It’s one on one and we add up all the victories for the team points.
You can’t have 3,4 different wrestlers wrestle in one match lol.

 

[el dub]

Yep, you can’t use baseball as an example for wrestling. It’s one on one and we add up all the victories for the team points.
You can’t have 3,4 different wrestlers wrestle in one match lol.

Ten per team wrestle in a match.

 

[HawkFan1986]

Yep, you can’t use baseball as an example for wrestling. It’s one on one and we add up all the victories for the team points.
You can’t have 3,4 different wrestlers wrestle in one match lol.

Pitcher vs batter is one on one. You’re analogy is flawed.

 

[bourbon n blues]

Pitcher vs batter is one on one. You’re analogy is flawed.

Really? And the pitcher covers the entire field defensively including catching his own pitches?

And you can’t sub a batter during an at bat or change a player mid game while the game is going on?

Moneyball isn’t a concept that works for traditional Olympic sports like wrestling, track and field , swimming etc .

 

[OILCHECKER]

A guy that pins 90% of his opponents in the first period would have horrible stats.

 

[bourbon n blues]

A guy that pins 90% of his opponents in the first period would have horrible stats.

True , baseball is a very unique game where certain stats matter, football is a great stat game also.

We’ve had third down backs for over a generation for example. They have numbers for everything in football.

Wrestling? Better conditioning , better technique, and superior strength all matter. Experience will also matter.

It’s just a different sport.

 

[el dub]

True , baseball is a very unique game where certain stats matter, football is a great stat game also.

We’ve had third down backs for over a generation for example. They have numbers for everything in football.

Wrestling? Better conditioning , better technique, and superior strength all matter. Experience will also matter.

It’s just a different sport.

All quantifiable in this day and age.

Finishes 75% of shots, etc. The numbers are there for wrestling stats.

 

[bourbon n blues]

All quantifiable in this day and age.

Finishes 75% of shots, etc. The numbers are there for wrestling stats.

Yep, but you can't compare this sport to baseball, it's a different animal. They will use those stats to recruit wrestlers or see if there's a wrestler who maybe could be coached up by filling a hole in his game.

 

[el dub]

Yep, but you can't compare this sport to baseball, it's a different animal. They will use those stats to recruit wrestlers or see if there's a wrestler who maybe could be coached up by filling a hole in his game.

 

[HawkFan1986]

Really? And the pitcher covers the entire field defensively including catching his own pitches?

And you can’t sub a batter during an at bat or change a player mid game while the game is going on?

Moneyball isn’t a concept that works for traditional Olympic sports like wrestling, track and field , swimming etc .

All moneyball really is, is a stats based solution to problem solving. If some team wanted to hire a statistician to look at inefficiencies in their wrestlers I’m sure they could find some.

For example wrestler x shoots 60% of his sweep singles the the left leg. Of that 60 percent he finishes 30%, action ends in a stalemate 60% and he gives up a counter score 10% of the time.

Any action by a wrestler leads to a counter action by his opponent. Those actions can be counted and measured for efficiency. The same way an at bat between a pitcher and hitter can, and once the ball is out in play, between fielder and ball.

In Sabre metrics it’s easier to yield obvious outcomes and results in non contact sports because they don’t have to account for the biggest variable of all…the human body. But you could still find stats based inefficiencies in wrestling.

 

[anon_4lz6x5o7izepf]

Come on. Everyone has their assignment. 1) Watch the movie. 2) Come back here to discuss. 3) Bask in the glow after we take down Pet State on this new way of thinking. Has anyone told TnT about this thread yet? Thanks to the OP for bringing this is to our attention

 

[ping72]

True , baseball is a very unique game where certain stats matter, football is a great stat game also.

We’ve had third down backs for over a generation for example. They have numbers for everything in football.

Wrestling? Better conditioning , better technique, and superior strength all matter. Experience will also matter.

It’s just a different sport.

So better conditioning, technique, or superior strength doesn’t help in other sports? Derp.

 

[ping72]

Wrestling doesn’t work like that , it’s not baseball and it’s not twenty some years ago.

Wrestling is a one on one combat sport. Ball sport stats won’t work in something like this.

I’d venture it’s easier to predict in a 1v1 than a team sport like baseball with so many variables (fielder abilities, weather, different ballpark dimensions, etc).

 

[bourbon n blues]

I’d venture it’s easier to predict in a 1v1 than a team sport like baseball with so many variables (fielder abilities, weather, different ballpark dimensions, etc).

Sure, wrestling still isn’t baseball. For over 100 years baseball worked one way, Billy Beane and others revolutionized scouting.

Most wrestling coaches know the best wrestlers and why they are the best. So you then recruit them .

Then train them up and keep them healthy , like Penn State does. With all the wrestling younger athletes do you’re getting very experienced athletes now compared to 40 plus years ago.



These guys are discussing peaking in this video.

 

[bourbon n blues]

All moneyball really is, is a stats based solution to problem solving. If some team wanted to hire a statistician to look at inefficiencies in their wrestlers I’m sure they could find some.

For example wrestler x shoots 60% of his sweep singles the the left leg. Of that 60 percent he finishes 30%, action ends in a stalemate 60% and he gives up a counter score 10% of the time.

Any action by a wrestler leads to a counter action by his opponent. Those actions can be counted and measured for efficiency. The same way an at bat between a pitcher and hitter can, and once the ball is out in play, between fielder and ball.

In Sabre metrics it’s easier to yield obvious outcomes and results in non contact sports because they don’t have to account for the biggest variable of all…the human body. But you could still find stats based inefficiencies in wrestling.

And Sanderson is probably already doing that. Along with keeping the guys healthy.

I know coaches watch film, you have to be able to do it against an opponent trying the same thing.

There are fellows that can tell you what they’re going to do and you won’t be able to stop them, since it’s one on one with the opponent trying the same thing against you.

 

[Sandor45]

Yep, but you can't compare this sport to baseball, it's a different animal. They will use those stats to recruit wrestlers or see if there's a wrestler who maybe could be coached up by filling a hole in his game.

Baseball and wrestling may be too different. I guess I was more getting at how we can get the most value for our money. That, both wrestling and baseball and every pro sport, looks for value.

Paniro Johnson should have been a pfp recruit but coaches thought he had gas tank issues. So, he dropped to Iowa St where they figured out that Paniro had Sickle Cell. They changed his training and diet and then he goes to beat Gomez, Murin, and wins a Big 12 title.
Dresser got great value.

Mike Evans was a pfp guy. Came to iowa. Heard he had some personal issues even stemming back during his high school years that carried over to college.
3x aa but maybe he’s a champ without outside distractions. (Worked for Matt Brown)
Brands maybe got value (3x aa) maybe less than value.

When we look at potential guys to bring into the program, how do we vet them?
Hopefully, it’s more than just wins and bonus rates.

 

[Jason.D.Brantley]

I saw on Twitter that they're coming out with a Swarm vodka in a month which will help out with NIL money.

 

[burk11]

Remind that many/most athletic events have developed data sets and analytics unique to their individual sport. i.e. baseball, football, basketball, volleyball, golf, track, swimming, hockey, soccer, tennis, lacrosse, horse racing, et al. These analytics are universally used to guide training and predict performance.

Seems reasonable that wrestling could play moneyball?

 

[PSUWrestling2425]

START with getting the word out that ANY top 10P4P guy gets a minimum FULL RIDE! ADD that if you are a starter you receive X more $$$ on top. An AA gets even more and a NC still more. Keep going for 2x, 3x, and 4x champs. World medalists champions, O medalists champions.

Raise money with camps, clinics, t-shirts autographs etc.... A guy like Spencer Lee is worth his weight in gold and he was injured!!!

Make it very clear that if you make it at IOWA you will have the greatest opportunity to use your wrestling skills to make $$$$. With the fan base, new facility, girls team etc.... There is tons of potential. Host a camp with SL, how many kids could you bring in? how much could you charge? How many T-shirts could you sell......

He wins an Olympic title, it would all increase even more. Plus having many top kids in an IOWA camp would certainly not hurt! Having them see the facilities, talk to other wrestlers it is a snowball effect.

The kid VITO who tore it up at NCAAs and has now moved on in FS has helped his fathers club and I do not think he has even been back home yet! He comes home to run a clinic and it will be a sell out in minutes!!!

This is a very simple way to pay for top kids, and all others could work the camps and make money too. As was said, it is a business, run it like one!!!

Imagine all of this, but, instead of Spencer, imagine they had Taylor, Snyder, Dake, N Lee, Zain, Nolf & Gilman at those camps (Nickal would even pay a visit). What a magical place that would be! For some strange reason, the kids don't see Iowa city as the greatest place for their potential these days. They must not read this board enough.

 

[JBJRFL]

Imagine all of this, but, instead of Spencer, imagine they had Taylor, Snyder, Dake, N Lee, Zain, Nolf & Gilman at those camps (Nickal would even pay a visit). What a magical place that would be! For some strange reason, the kids don't see Iowa city as the greatest place for their potential these days. They must not read this board enough.

Quite unlike you however, you read and comment too much.

 

[hlstone]

Quite unlike you however, you read and comment too much.

Only in the cesspool would someone make fun of someone for reading too much.🤣

 

[Inthecircle]

There are many more coaches in baseball each having a specific responsibility. Football is the same. I understand these sports are team sports, however identifying specific deficiencies is the first order of business.
We need to be better at re-attack, defending re-attacks and scrambling. I think we miss a bit on the body type of guys we recruit, specifically length and quickness. Getting guys like Eireman and Woods from the get go. Kem Dawg type guys are who we need. COBE is a good example as well. How does a moneyball approach help with this?