I do not think Bluder is the problem. The issue is Iowa itself. We are a top program but not an elite program and we are geographically isolated. It's a 4-5 hour drive to any real major city (not counting Des Moines). By contrast Ann Arbor is almost double Iowa City's population and is a mere 45 minutes from Detroit. Lincoln is more than 3 times larger than Iowa City with close proximity to Omaha also. I think for young people there's a perception that most other college towns have more to offer entertainment wise.....
We have the best freshman class I can ever remember and much needed athleticism. If we crash the glass this year, we should have a realistic shot at the final four. There were several close games we could have won handily had we not given the other team 2nd, 3rd, 4th chance points.
To be totally clear, I am
not frustrated or disappointed in Bluder's recruiting abilities AT ALL. I couldn't be more pleased with our recruits from '20 til now (including transfers -- which is now part of the game).
I also don't think we have a "problem" -- I just think we have a ceiling. And I agree with all of your points as to why. I also think that that ceilling makes sense, considering Bluder's age / resumé (which, as you put very well, is successful, but not elite). The simple truth is that for some athletes, the older a coach gets, the less likely that recruit may be to hit it off with them, and for some other recruits, they don't want to worry about a coach leaving while they're on the roster. And finally, for some other recruits, they look at a program's (coach's) body of work and judge their ceiling by that. All recruits? Not at all, but quite a few are gonna fall into one of those camps. Top 5 recruits can and will let any little concern knock a program out of the running.
I have loved watching the growth of this program. I started following in 2008 -- very few programs out there have had a trajectory like ours. I really believe that we have a path to either an Elite 8 or Final 4 this year
and next, but those are invariably huge achievements. It's a tall order to
expect that kind of success, so I don't think we as fans should. The burden of proof is on the players and coaches to prove that is something we can and will achieve.
So, unless either an achievement like that happens OR someone young and exciting with a fresh, ambitious sales pitch takes the helm, I agree that we're not likely to grab more Top 5 recruits in the next few years. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean we can't continue to compete for Top 50 recruits, just like Stuelke and Edigar. We're clearly in the running for Ava Heiden (she liked my tweet today retweeting the Iowa B1G schedule btw) as well as Jasmine Brown. Greenway may very well end up a Top 50 recruit too. If our ceiling is somewhere between #10-#15 but our floor is somwhere between #75-#100, that's a great place to be. We're not
quite there yet (I think MD is the closest analogy for this, which is actually a downgrade from where they were a few years ago), but I think we're closer than anyone else at our level to getting over the hump.
Rutgers, MN, PSU, Purdue have had similar (or more) success than us and have completely imploded. In other conferences, KY, OR, Oregon State, MS State are hanging on by a thread. They would all love to be in our position, and if you peruse some of their forums, you'll see them say such things tbh. There's actually kind of a vacuum right now in terms of Blue Bloods since so many schools (TN, ND, Baylor) have had somewhat epic falls from grace. I do think that's part of the reason we're getting so much attention right now.
OO committing to Mich after they hit the Elite 8 and KBA won B1G COY reminds me a lot of CC committing to Iowa after we made the Elite 8 and Bluder won NCOY. Those kinds of achievements pay off in recruiting. But there's an expiration to that glamour. I do think we are approaching or have just hit that (4 seasons later). Fortunately, we now have another opportunity to either replicate that success or exceed it. Again, not a bad place to be...it's just that succeeding is always harder the second time.