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New Orleans officials are urging residents to shelter in place rather than evacuating....

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
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NEW ORLEANS, July 11 (Reuters) - Some residents and visitors prepared to flee New Orleans on Thursday as Tropical Storm Barry closed in and officials warned of "extreme rain" and flooding if the storm makes landfall by early Saturday as the first Atlantic hurricane of 2019.

City officials urged residents to shelter in place rather than evacuate as the storm had maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (64 kph) as of 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Thursday, the National Weather Service said.

Forecasters issued a storm-surge warning of up to 6 feet (1.8 m) for a stretch of Louisiana coastline south of already-sodden New Orleans stretching from the mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach. Rain was an equal danger, given that the lower Mississippi River, which runs through New Orleans, has been above flood stage for six months.

The lower Mississippi is forecast to peak at 19 feet (5.9 m) on Saturday, the highest it has been since 1950, according to the National Weather Service.

"The more information we get, the more concerned we are that this is going to be an extreme rain event," Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards said at an afternoon news conference. "If Tropical Storm Barry becomes a hurricane, it would be the first time we've had the hurricane hit the state with rising rivers."

He said he expected the storm to measure a Category 1, the lowest rung on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane wind strength, when it comes ashore.

The slow-moving storm was located about 90 miles (145 km) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River at 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said.

Meteorologists predicted between 10 and 20 inches (25 and 50 cm) of rain would fall on the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday from East Texas through New Orleans and the Louisiana coast.

'CANNOT PUMP OUR WAY OUT'

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell warned that 48 hours of heavy rainfall could overwhelm the pumps the city uses to fight floodwater, leading to flooding as early as Friday morning.

"We cannot pump our way out of the water levels that are expected to hit the city of New Orleans," Cantrell said. "We need you to understand this."

Water pumps already were working at capacity after heavy rains, she said.

Oil companies have shut a third of offshore Gulf of Mexico production ahead and a coastal refinery was set to shutdown due to an evacuation order prompted by the storm, pushing oil and gasoline prices higher.

Cantrell said no official evacuation orders were being issued but urged people to gather supplies, secure their property and shelter in place.

But some in New Orleans, hard hit when Hurricane Katrina swamped the city in 2005 and killed 1,800 across the region, were getting out.

In the city's Bywater neighborhood a block from the Mississippi River, Betsey and Jack Hazard were preparing to repair a fence around their house and flee with their two small children to Mississippi.

"It's really the river that has us worried," said Betsey Hazard, saying she feared it could overtop the nearby levee. "They say that the river won't flood in New Orleans but we have a 5-year-old and a 10-month-old, and we don't want to take any chances."

In the normally bustling French Quarter, popular with tourists, only a couple of tables were occupied at the coffee-and-beignet restaurant Café du Monde.

Kate Clayson of Northampton, England, and her boyfriend Maxx Lipman of Nashville, Tennessee, said they had arrived on Wednesday for a vacation but were planning to depart on Thursday.

"The woman at our Airbnb said the water came up to the first step of our house yesterday so we've just decided we'd better get out," Clayson said.

The storm will become Hurricane Barry if it reaches wind speeds of 74 mph (119 km) as expected when it makes landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River and just west of New Orleans.

The National Weather Service said the city had received 6 to 9 inches (15 to 23 cm) of rain by Thursday morning, causing dramatic flooding in the area, including on Bourbon Street in the city's historic French Quarter. (Additional reporting by Gabriella Borter and Jonathan Allen in New York and Rich McKay in Atlanta Writing by Scott Malone Editing by Bill Trott)

http://news.trust.org/item/20190711180137-6jyrj

How does sheltering in place protect you from flooding?

1,800 people died in Katrina.

Are these "officials" completely insane?
 
Telling them to stay will maybe make the idiots leave this time.
 
They tried advising evacuation before Katrina. How did that turn out?

Maybe it is reverse psychology.

If you fear flooding, don't live below sea level at a place that is prone to Hurricanes and storm surges. Move to Houston.
 
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Poor people don’t own boats bro.

Not sure why New Orleans needs to be a city. Sounds like another expensive storm season.
 
Where are they supposed to go? Biloxi? Mobile? Pensacola? There aren't going to be hotel rooms available this time of year.

If they go toward Houston, they will cross the storm path, or maybe even follow the storm path. Same for Memphis, which is a 5 hour drive.

I'm not for sheltering in place when a flood is likely, but a lot of the people have no good alternative.
 
Having been to New Orleans I can see why people deal with the weather. It’s a truly special place with great culture and history. For better or worse, New Orleans will not be “abandoned”.
 
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Where are they supposed to go? Biloxi? Mobile? Pensacola? There aren't going to be hotel rooms available this time of year.

If they go toward Houston, they will cross the storm path, or maybe even follow the storm path. Same for Memphis, which is a 5 hour drive.

I'm not for sheltering in place when a flood is likely, but a lot of the people have no good alternative.

Inland. Higher ground. Not on the coast.

A quick check on Hotels.com for Birmingham this weekend reveals lots of rooms.
 
Higher ground. It’s a flood. I’d sleep in my car instead of staying in a flooded house.
But I’m crazy like that.



Weird, hotels.com shows vacancies in all those places.

Try and find an affordable room in Pensacola this weekend that doesn't require a 3 night stay. Oh, for 400,000 people.
 
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They tried advising evacuation before Katrina. How did that turn out?

Maybe it is reverse psychology.

If you fear flooding, don't live below sea level at a place that is prone to Hurricanes and storm surges. Move to Houston.
Yeah, because Houston doesn’t have problems with flooding.
 
Why dont we leave? Cause most of us have Rolling Stnes tickets for Sunday night. Concert hasn't been cancelled. Perhaps the media is making this out to be a much larger event than it is. I'm sticking around all weekend, you will be able to find me in the lower garden district bars all weekend.
 
Looks like a storm surge of a little over a foot in Pensacola right now. Not too bad.
 
Why dont we leave? Cause most of us have Rolling Stnes tickets for Sunday night. Concert hasn't been cancelled. Perhaps the media is making this out to be a much larger event than it is. I'm sticking around all weekend, you will be able to find me in the lower garden district bars all weekend.
Good bars to be in.
 
I don't think the storm surge is going to be that bad. But the rainfall is going to be heavy and a lot of street flooding. Not to the level of Harvey, but NOLA doesn't need a bunch of rain to flood. Plus, the pumps in Jefferson and Orleans Parish are old and poorly maintained.
 
I don't think the storm surge is going to be that bad. But the rainfall is going to be heavy and a lot of street flooding. Not to the level of Harvey, but NOLA doesn't need a bunch of rain to flood. Plus, the pumps in Jefferson and Orleans Parish are old and poorly maintained.

The real worry is that the Corp of Engineers never opened the Morganza Spillway releasing additional water on top of what's going through the Bonnet Carre spillway. This has kept the Mississippi river elevated. With the surge expected it's supposed to hit 19 feet, the levies are only 20 feet tall. With wind it wont take much to have water coming over top. The big fear is that may erode the back side of those levies weakening them and letting the Mississippi bust through.

If the Mississippi river levies bust we can pretty much cancel NOLA. I'm on the high ground close to the river and that thing is about 10 feet above the base of my house. Given I'm 6 ft above sea level, you can imagine the potential issues for those in lower areas should that happen.

I have the Kayak ready just in case though!
 
Try and find an affordable room in Pensacola this weekend that doesn't require a 3 night stay. Oh, for 400,000 people.

You’re right, what was I thinking. Every single one of them face the choice of only going to Pensacola.
No other options.
At all.
 
If the levees hold, sheltering in place is probably the right move.

You’re right, what was I thinking. Every single one of them face the choice of only going to Pensacola.
No other options.
At all.
There aren't 400,000 hotel rooms total in along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The Blue Angels are putting on a show in Pensacola this weekend, and Destin, Ft Walton, and Pensacola are pretty much full.

Tidal surge now about 2 feet in Pensacola. The wind won't be as much of a problem as the water in NOLA. They were flooding before the storm. Add the near record level of the Mississippi River and it's worth paying attention.
 
Dude, we had a storm that dropped some water and flooded the streets Wednesday. That's all gone now. Hell, I was bellied up to the bar in the Quarter by noon that day.

And people leaving can go to the following:

Jackson
Memphis
Monroe
Birmingham
Mobile
Biloxi/Gulfport

That's all keeping them from heading through the storm. Not to mention most folks know people on the North Shore far enough away from the Lake they can stay with. If folks want to leave they can. I'm not though, I've got parties to attend
 
Dude, we had a storm that dropped some water and flooded the streets Wednesday. That's all gone now. Hell, I was bellied up to the bar in the Quarter by noon that day.

And people leaving can go to the following:

Jackson
Memphis
Monroe
Birmingham
Mobile
Biloxi/Gulfport

That's all keeping them from heading through the storm. Not to mention most folks know people on the North Shore far enough away from the Lake they can stay with. If folks want to leave they can. I'm not though, I've got parties to attend

I'm sure if people want to leave they can find a place to go. That said, you are overestimating the resources available in the places you list, and the ability of people to get there. That's why the mayor said shelter in place.
 
On the selfish side, i wish Houston would have cut some of this and we could have canceled the birthday party we are having at my house Saturday....lol.
 
I'm sure if people want to leave they can find a place to go. That said, you are overestimating the resources available in the places you list, and the ability of people to get there. That's why the mayor said shelter in place.

Nah, if I was I wouldnt be here riding out the storm. This is going to be easy peasy.
 
There aren't 400,000 hotel rooms total in along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The Blue Angels are putting on a show in Pensacola this weekend, and Destin, Ft Walton, and Pensacola are pretty much full.

Hotels.com shows 64% vacancy in Mobile and you could also head north. Just get on higher ground. It doesn’t have to be a beach vacation spot for crissakes.

When Opal hit my brother loaded up his truck and race trailer and my parents got in their car and they drove north and slept in a church parking lot somewhere in Alabama.

 
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