The College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 9 are simply designed to generate conversation and interest. Nothing more, nothing less. 1/3 of the season remains.
Iowa will not make the CFP with one loss. That's a given. Thus, there is truly only one question that should be of concern to Iowa football fans and that is this: "Who is a 13-0 Iowa football team's competition for the CFP?"
With the caveat that I don't see the committee awarding two slots to any conference, including the SEC, this is how I see the lineup (in no order):
SEC
LSU . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in.
Alabama . . . they win out, they are in UNLESS Ole Miss runs the table and keeps them out of the SEC championship game.
Florida . . . they win out, they are very likely in. Their "resume" would likely be enhanced by a win over either LSU or Alabama in the championship game. If the beat Ole Miss in the championship game, their picture clouds a bit. However, its the SEC, and it is likely that a one-loss Florida team that is the SEC champion will earn a berth.
Ole Miss . . . they win out and they create a mess. Does a two loss SEC team make the playoff? Does that eliminiate a 1 loss LSU or Alabama? This is the Doomsday Scenario. Personally, I don't think that the committee could take a 1 loss Alabama over a 2 loss SEC champion Ole Miss when Ole Miss beat Alabama in the regular season. The question then becomes "how does the committee drop Alabama out of the top 4?" It will create controversy but - barring a meltdown by nearly every other conference - I don't see the SEC getting two teams.
My hope? LSU runs the table. The SEC is almost certainly getting one representative in the game. Might as well eliminate every other contender along the way.
ACC
Clemson . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in.
FSU . . . if they beat Clemson, the ACC may be in trouble. At that juncture, FSU has inside track for ACC championship game. If FSU wins ACC championship, the question will be this "how does Iowa's unbeaten season (including a likely win over OSU) compare to FSU's 1-loss season which includes a win over Clemson?" In my eyes, Iowa's championship win over OSU will trump FSU's championship win over the other "side" of the ACC.
My hope? FSU beats Clemson. That would, IMO, put a 13-0 Iowa team above any ACC champion.
Big 12
Baylor . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in. One loss and they won't be picked over an undefeated Iowa team.
TCU . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in. One loss and they won't be picked over an undefeated Iowa team.
Oklahoma State . . . they win out and it gets interesting. I personally believe that, if OSU wins out, they will get an invitation to the CFP. To do so, they will have to beat TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma in the final four weeks. The committee will consider all of those games to be "quality" wins over "quality" opponents. And, at the end of the day, an undefeated OSU team will likely have a better overall resume than an undefeated Iowa team. Its close but I believe that OSU's wins over TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma will trump Iowa's wins over Ohio State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. That written, there is no way that OSU runs the table.
Oklahoma - loss to Texas killed their chances to be selected above an undefeated Iowa team.
Pac12
Stanford . . . they need to run the table to be in the CFP discussion. And, then it gets interesting. In doing so, Stanford will knock off ND and that win will likely vault Stanford over Iowa in the weekly rankings. Then it will come down to whether Stanford's championship win over Utah is sufficient to maintain its lead over Iowa after Iowa beats OSU (probable opponent). It get a bit hairy at that point but I believe that an undefeated Iowa team that just knocked off OSU will be picked ahead of a 1 loss Stanford team that lost to Northwestern - who Iowa throttled.
Utah . . . an undefeated Iowa team will be picked ahead of Utah even if Utah runs the table.
Independents
Notre Dame . . . this is truly the team that causes me the most heart burn. If they run the table, their only loss would be to Clemson and it would include a win at Stanford. While I could make a strong argument that Iowa's undefeated resume (including a likely win over OSU) is better than ND's, I'm fully cognizant of the ND Magic. If Clemson remains undefeated and ND has only lost to Clemson, I think that it is no better than a "coin flip" whether an undefeated Iowa team is selected ahead of a one-loss ND team. Because of that, I'll be pulling for Stanford to beat ND.
Group of 5
Sorry . . . it may not be fair or rational, but there will be no Group of 5 team that is selected ahead of an undefeated Iowa team - especially when Iowa punctuates its season with a likely win over OSU.
So . . here are my CFP rankings and possibilities:
Teams that definitely get in "ahead" of an undefeated Iowa:
1. Undefeated LSU
2. Undefeated Clemson
3. Undefeated Baylor, TCU or Oklahoma State
4. A one-loss Alabama which runs the table and wins the SEC Championship game
5. A one-loss Florida which wins the SEC Championship game
The "close calls"
1. A one-loss Notre Dame
2. A one-loss Stanford
3. A one-loss "declared" Big12 champion Baylor or TCU
4. A two-loss Ole Miss which wins the SEC championship
The "I'm not too concerned about these situations"
1. A two loss Alabama or Florida
2. A one loss LSU which doesn't make the SEC championship game
3. A one-loss Utah
4. A two-loss Notre Dame or Stanford
5. A one-loss Clemson
6. A one-loss Florida State
All in all . . . I mostly agree with those who are of the opinion that an undefeated Iowa is in great shape and likely getting a ticket to the Final Four. The chips will likely fall into place. The only teams that could potentially dash those hopes are Stanford or Notre Dame and, by virtue of their head to head matchup, one will drop out.
Lots of football to play and Iowa has more than its work cut out for it to even be concerned about the possibilities.
Iowa will not make the CFP with one loss. That's a given. Thus, there is truly only one question that should be of concern to Iowa football fans and that is this: "Who is a 13-0 Iowa football team's competition for the CFP?"
With the caveat that I don't see the committee awarding two slots to any conference, including the SEC, this is how I see the lineup (in no order):
SEC
LSU . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in.
Alabama . . . they win out, they are in UNLESS Ole Miss runs the table and keeps them out of the SEC championship game.
Florida . . . they win out, they are very likely in. Their "resume" would likely be enhanced by a win over either LSU or Alabama in the championship game. If the beat Ole Miss in the championship game, their picture clouds a bit. However, its the SEC, and it is likely that a one-loss Florida team that is the SEC champion will earn a berth.
Ole Miss . . . they win out and they create a mess. Does a two loss SEC team make the playoff? Does that eliminiate a 1 loss LSU or Alabama? This is the Doomsday Scenario. Personally, I don't think that the committee could take a 1 loss Alabama over a 2 loss SEC champion Ole Miss when Ole Miss beat Alabama in the regular season. The question then becomes "how does the committee drop Alabama out of the top 4?" It will create controversy but - barring a meltdown by nearly every other conference - I don't see the SEC getting two teams.
My hope? LSU runs the table. The SEC is almost certainly getting one representative in the game. Might as well eliminate every other contender along the way.
ACC
Clemson . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in.
FSU . . . if they beat Clemson, the ACC may be in trouble. At that juncture, FSU has inside track for ACC championship game. If FSU wins ACC championship, the question will be this "how does Iowa's unbeaten season (including a likely win over OSU) compare to FSU's 1-loss season which includes a win over Clemson?" In my eyes, Iowa's championship win over OSU will trump FSU's championship win over the other "side" of the ACC.
My hope? FSU beats Clemson. That would, IMO, put a 13-0 Iowa team above any ACC champion.
Big 12
Baylor . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in. One loss and they won't be picked over an undefeated Iowa team.
TCU . . . in driver's seat. They win out, they are in. One loss and they won't be picked over an undefeated Iowa team.
Oklahoma State . . . they win out and it gets interesting. I personally believe that, if OSU wins out, they will get an invitation to the CFP. To do so, they will have to beat TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma in the final four weeks. The committee will consider all of those games to be "quality" wins over "quality" opponents. And, at the end of the day, an undefeated OSU team will likely have a better overall resume than an undefeated Iowa team. Its close but I believe that OSU's wins over TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma will trump Iowa's wins over Ohio State, Northwestern and Wisconsin. That written, there is no way that OSU runs the table.
Oklahoma - loss to Texas killed their chances to be selected above an undefeated Iowa team.
Pac12
Stanford . . . they need to run the table to be in the CFP discussion. And, then it gets interesting. In doing so, Stanford will knock off ND and that win will likely vault Stanford over Iowa in the weekly rankings. Then it will come down to whether Stanford's championship win over Utah is sufficient to maintain its lead over Iowa after Iowa beats OSU (probable opponent). It get a bit hairy at that point but I believe that an undefeated Iowa team that just knocked off OSU will be picked ahead of a 1 loss Stanford team that lost to Northwestern - who Iowa throttled.
Utah . . . an undefeated Iowa team will be picked ahead of Utah even if Utah runs the table.
Independents
Notre Dame . . . this is truly the team that causes me the most heart burn. If they run the table, their only loss would be to Clemson and it would include a win at Stanford. While I could make a strong argument that Iowa's undefeated resume (including a likely win over OSU) is better than ND's, I'm fully cognizant of the ND Magic. If Clemson remains undefeated and ND has only lost to Clemson, I think that it is no better than a "coin flip" whether an undefeated Iowa team is selected ahead of a one-loss ND team. Because of that, I'll be pulling for Stanford to beat ND.
Group of 5
Sorry . . . it may not be fair or rational, but there will be no Group of 5 team that is selected ahead of an undefeated Iowa team - especially when Iowa punctuates its season with a likely win over OSU.
So . . here are my CFP rankings and possibilities:
Teams that definitely get in "ahead" of an undefeated Iowa:
1. Undefeated LSU
2. Undefeated Clemson
3. Undefeated Baylor, TCU or Oklahoma State
4. A one-loss Alabama which runs the table and wins the SEC Championship game
5. A one-loss Florida which wins the SEC Championship game
The "close calls"
1. A one-loss Notre Dame
2. A one-loss Stanford
3. A one-loss "declared" Big12 champion Baylor or TCU
4. A two-loss Ole Miss which wins the SEC championship
The "I'm not too concerned about these situations"
1. A two loss Alabama or Florida
2. A one loss LSU which doesn't make the SEC championship game
3. A one-loss Utah
4. A two-loss Notre Dame or Stanford
5. A one-loss Clemson
6. A one-loss Florida State
All in all . . . I mostly agree with those who are of the opinion that an undefeated Iowa is in great shape and likely getting a ticket to the Final Four. The chips will likely fall into place. The only teams that could potentially dash those hopes are Stanford or Notre Dame and, by virtue of their head to head matchup, one will drop out.
Lots of football to play and Iowa has more than its work cut out for it to even be concerned about the possibilities.
